The Mekong Memo

Laos 20261028

August Whitcraft — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:07:54 GMT

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China Opens Ban Keun Air Base as US Pulls Back

We’ve written about it several times already, but it really is a story to watch: China has opened an air force base at Ban Keun Airport. Beijing is keen to say that it’s little more than a training site for Lao pilots, but satellite images appear to show a runway crowded with light attack aircraft and (military) vehicles. Washington's seeming retreat from the country is a stark contrast. The United States has left its Vientiane embassy without an ambassador, put Lao citizens on a 75-country travel ban list and put an end to years of USAID health and bomb clearance programs. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Southeast Asian leaders in Manila in November, let’s see if that changes anything.

$5M Project Speeds Clearance Before Tariffs Rise

Laos is set to lose duty free access under 24 trade programs when it graduates from “least developed country” (LDC) status on November 24. The average tariffs on Lao exports are expected to go up from 0.3 percent to 4.1 percent. A 2023 International Trade Centre study showed that all else being equal the cost increases could cause exports to drop 7.3 percent (~$734M), next year. Nearly four fifths of the losses would come from trade with China (natural rubber would be one of the biggest victims there). To make sure that “all else being equal” is not going to be the case, a new $5 million project is being launched to reduce average border clearance times to about two hours by putting dozens of import and export permits online.

Read more: Laotian Times

LALCO Director Reportedly Shot Dead in Vientiane

Yoshihito Oshima, director of Laos Stock Exchange listed leasing firm LALCO, has reportedly been shot dead in Vientiane. Footage shared by exiled Lao activist Joseph Akaravong appears to show a gunman firing three times at a man beside a minivan before escaping empty handed. Oshima was the eldest son of Kenshin Oshima, whose Japanese lender SFCG collapsed in 2009 with debts of 548 billion yen. The Lao embassy in Tokyo said the footage was an unverified rumor spread by dissidents, but LALCO did share news of Oshima's death on Facebook (without explanation of cause), and named Kenshin's wife, Yuriko Oshima, as director (and his mother President). LALCO later deleted the statement. Lao police have been mum to date.

Read more: Tokyo Reporter (debt collection), Tokyo Reporter (time, place)

Korean Work Visas Connected to Overstay Rates

South Korea is going to pause admission of Lao workers from its seasonal work program for three years if the nationwide overstay rate hits 70 percent. Any province that rises above 20 percent will be subject to a one year suspension, and a nationwide rate of 50 percent would put a pause on the whole country for a year. The tougher rules are being put in place as a renewed deal with Naju City is expanding recruitment to 29 districts in five provinces. More than 33,000 Lao workers have joined the program since 2022, allowing them to earn between $1,600 and $2,000 a month on Korean farms.

Read more: Laotian Times

PH Say Ex-Lawmaker is Meth Jet Mastermind

The Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency is accusing former Bangsamoro lawmaker Sultan Edrieza Hadji Nasser Rimbang of masterminding the 521 kg meth shipment that was rumbled in Laos. Agency chief Isagani Nerez told a congressional hearing that affidavits from people that were investigated pointed to Rimbang. He had previously been described as (just?) the financier. The jet was bound for Malaysia. Police there have said an unnamed Filipino booked the jet for $49,500 and have joined the investigation. In their work on this case so far, Lao authorities have held 13 people, including the pilots and several airport staff.

Read more: Philippine Daily Inquirer (mastermind), Free Malaysia Today (jet booking), Rappler (Marcos denial)

Photo by Kalinskie Gilliam on Unsplash

Police Burn Drugs; Warn on Collagen, Kratom

Police have destroyed 44.5 tonnes of seized drugs and drug making chemicals. The haul burned in Bolikhamxay included 6.3 million meth pills. Police are also ~~advertising~~ warning that ketamine, kratom drinks, and drug laced collagen are showing up in area restaurants and karaoke bars.

Read more: Laotian Times

Vietnamese Builder Lined Up for Tower and Smart Farm

Vietnam's Viet Nga Group is being put forward as the main contractor for two projects that together are worth almost $30 million. The company has signed an MOU with Lao firm Supchaleun Group for a proposed Supchaleun Central Tower that would feature apartments, shops and offices in two connected 15 story buildings in Vientiane. It is estimated to cost more than $21.2 million and take two and a half years to build. They also, in a seemingly strange juxtaposition of competencies, have agreed to a 94 hectare smart farm project of 3,000 fish and shrimp ponds to supply as many as two tonnes of catfish a day to the capital.

Read more: VOV News (contractor agreement), VietnamPlus (2026 start)

Money Bouquets Made From Kip Notes Banned

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce has banned the making, selling or advertising of “money bouquets” and other crafts using folded, glued or stapled kip (currency) notes. Reselling new notes at prices above their face value is also banned. The ostensible reason provided by the government is that the crafts wear out currency faster. Individuals can be fined up to LAK 5 million (~$230); businesses LAK 10 million (~$460). Fines will be doubled for repeat offenders.

Read more: Laotian Times

Cambodia Plans Wat Phou to Angkor Tour Routes

Laos and Cambodia are pushing joint tourism under their ongoing "Two Countries, One Destination," program that promises faster border crossings and shared tour routes. Ministers Suansavanh Viyaket and Huot Hak told tourism officials in Champasak and Stung Treng to run joint promotions and continue work on improving transport links. Proposed itineraries would connect Wat Phou in Champasak with Angkor Wat.

Read more: Bangkok Post

Tourism Ranking Climbs 10 Spots

A 10-position surge has put Laos 75th of 110 countries in the World Economic Forum's 2026 Travel and Tourism Development Index. Low prices remain a competitive advantage, and the nation’s environmental score rose by roughly one seventh. The report is less flattering about infrastructure, tourist services and technological readiness. More than 2.5 million foreign tourists visited Laos in the first half of 2026, including more than 833,000 from Thailand as they continued to generally shun travel to Cambodia due to a border dispute.

Myanmar 20261027

August Whitcraft — Tue, 27 Oct 2026 04:39:20 GMT

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Siam Commercial Bank in Disguised Iranian Jet Fuel Deal

A $26 million contract that described 202,000 barrels of Iranian jet fuel as "South African diesel" and instructed payments to be made to Thai company Tawan-Oil Trading's Siam Commercial Bank account. The cargo was delivered to Yangon, but curiously, the invoice carried jet fuel specifications and set the price at more than half again above the global diesel benchmark. A second contract indicates that Tawan sold about 113,000 barrels delivered by the sanctioned tanker Reef for $15.8 million. Justice For Myanmar says National Energy Prime Aviation Services, which is partly owned by the military-backed government, bought six shipments of this kind. The foreign exchange regulator even promised import papers that would label Reef's cargo “diesel” instead of “jet fuel."

Read more: Reuters (import directive), The Irrawaddy (shipments), Firstpost (satellite images), UA News (trade records)

Suu Kyi Talks to Son After Five-Years

Aung San Suu Kyi has spoken by phone with her son Kim Aris for the first time in more than five years. Calling in by phone to London from her house arrest in Naypyitaw, she sounded strong and began with her asking him if he was looking after himself, Aris said. He said that he thinks that the regime's sudden generosity is little more than a public relations exercise. Suu Kyi has no access to newspapers, radio or television, and Aris said a severe pain in her right hand might be tendonitis. Military doctors give her an examination her every six months, but he said that he doesn’t trust what they say.

Read more: AP (phone call), AP (regime diplomacy), The Guardian (international support), Myanmar Now (Red Cross visit)

Rebel-Held Mines Feed China's Rare Earth Imports

China's rare earth imports increase by almost a quarter during the period from August to September, with Myanmar supplying seven in ten of the more than 5,000 tons that China digested. Satellite images show more than 600 mines in the north, almost all of them operating outside area that the junta controls. Kachin State is home to nearly four-fifths, including sites around Chipwi and Pangwa that were taken over by the Kachin Independence Army from a junta-aligned militia. Nearly 90 more are in Ta'ang National Liberation Army territory. Myanmar produces roughly half the world's heavy rare earths, including two metals that are used in powerful magnets required in phones, electric cars, and even high-tech weapons systems. Regime supporters are now talking up a "rare earth card" that might be played as Washington re-engages with Naypyitaw.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (mine control), The Irrawaddy (imports)

Malaysia Queries Junta Over Returnees Held in Yangon

Malaysia is asking the junta to explain reports that about 300 people it just sent back to Myanmar are being held at a military facility in Yangon. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan told parliament that Malaysia's charge d'affaires is being tasked with an investigation of their condition. He was sure to remind everyone that the returns were voluntary (Ed: not sure if that should be in quotes or not, tbh) and were backed by signed consent documents and assurances of safety from the junta. So far, three naval vessels have taken 1,476 returnees to Yangon, and another 3,524 are expected to follow.

Read more: The Star (assurances), ORF (return policy), Free Malaysia Today (detentions)

Junta Bombs Downtown Sittwe

An Arakan Army shell reportedly struck the military's Regional Operations Command in Sittwe, killing more than 10", including two colonels. The unverified account comes from an anonymous official “close to the military.” A military Y-12 aircraft then allegedly bombed Mawleik Ward in the junta-held city center. Local reports say five civilians were killed that strike. MSF recorded at least two deaths and 17 injuries, most at a downtown junction, but did not say who fired on who.

Read more: Narinjara (reported retaliation), ReliefWeb (casualties)

Photo by Bagan on Unsplash

Junta Sets Rice Floor Price Far Below Market Rates

The junta has set a minimum paddy price of 1.35 million kyats per 100 baskets, which sounds okay until you find out that price is substantially lower than the 1.9 million to 3 million kyats farmers say the market is paying. The floor will apply to the current monsoon crop and the next summer harvest, but rather than acting as support, farmers say that they fear brokers will use it to push prices down, knowing indebted growers are unable to be patient. With production costs running about 1.2 million kyats an acre before interest, and yields falling, farmers say the official price would leave them losing up to 300,000 kyats an acre, if they were to accept it.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

India Freezes Accounts in Drug Money Probe

Krishiv Enterprises allegedly sent about 32 tons of caffeine anhydrous to small pharmacies and shops in Mizoram that didn’t have any manufacturing facilities. India's Enforcement Directorate unsurprisingly thinks that the chemical made its way over the border to be used in methamphetamine tablets. Its frozen 1,424 bank accounts in Mizoram and Manipur connected to an alleged money transfer network that was (again, allegedly) paying drug suppliers in Myanmar.

Read more: India Today (raids), The Hitavada (drug trade), Borderlens (Krishiv Enterprises)

Chin Survivor Files First Complaint Under DK War Crimes Law

A Chin woman living in Denmark has filed the first criminal complaint under the country's new universal jurisdiction law. The document names junta commanders including Min Aung Hlaing. She alleges that troops burned 40 homes in her village, deliberately killed civilians and forced tens of thousands of people from their homes. The law applies wherever the alleged crimes occurred, and her supporters are pressing Danish police to register the case and start a formal investigation.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (humanitarian toll), DVB (complaint), Courthouse News (Gambia case)

Internet Freedom Score Again Ranks Last

The regime is blocking communications in 140 of 358 monitored townships, most of them afflicted by fighting. Freedom House has given the country a score of 9 out of 100 for “internet freedom” for the third year in a row. It’s the world's lowest score. In Myanmar today, VPN use is a crime, and authorities have locked up thousands of people for their online criticism since the coup in 2021.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

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Cambodia 20261026

August Whitcraft — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 02:10:02 GMT

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Courts Freeze Nearly $1B of Prince Group Assets

Courts have frozen nearly a billion dollars worth of Prince Group assets, including more than $300 million in bank account cash, as investigators continue their cybercrime case against the conglomerate. In addition to the cash freeze, the order also includes several buildings, casinos, and thousands of properties connected to 198 companies. Founder Chen Zhi was already extradited to China in January, and five other alleged ringleaders have already been sent to court. INTERPOL Red Notices are being sought for at least 29 others.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (asset freeze), Khmer Times (FBI role), Inside Asian Gaming (China's role)

Phnom Penh Protests Thai Army Road Work

Thai troops are apparently building a road between boundary pillars 9 and 11 in Oddar Meanchey (with trees marked for more work), forcing a formal protest from Phnom Penh. The foreign ministry says the construction is in contravention of a 2000 border agreement and other deals that were intended to reduce tensions. The joint border commission is still stalled while Phnom Penh is also protesting the presence of Thai troops at Ta Moan Thom, Ta Krabey and Khnar temples.

Read more: Cambodianess (border agreements), Khmer Times (Ta Tum), Khmer Times (government response), Khmer Times (border shells)

Minister Calls Talk of 'Lost' Border “Land Treason”

Minister Delegate So Naro says that any Cambodian who says that land has been "lost" to Thailand is a traitor. His combative warning follows Prime Minister Hun Manet's demand that critics stop claiming the government ceded territory between border markers 52 and 59. Hun Manet says he is denying a handover through border surveys, not occupation by force, an inconvenient distinction when set beside Hun Sen's previous admission that "we lost land in different areas." More than 30 activists, journalists and others have already been prosecuted because of their comments about the border and military.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (Hun Manet's warning), CamboJA News (treason claim)

Cabinet Forecasts 4% Growth, IMF Sees 3%

The cabinet is expecting 4 percent growth for FY 2026 and a little bump up to 4.8 percent for next year in a forecast that’s a little rosier than those of international lenders. The IMF is expecting 3 percent this year and 4 percent next year, and the Asian Development Bank thinks that tourism will stay tepid (international arrivals are down 11% this year) and the nation will only muster 3.9 percent and 4.7 percent. Inflation continues to put pressure on households; the government's expecting GDP per person to come in at just $3,277 next year, up from about $3,098 for this year.

Read more: Khmer Times (government forecast), Khmer Times (IMF outlook), Cambodia Daily (airport traffic)

Photo by Look Up Look Down Photography on Unsplash

Drought, Floods Batter Rice Crop

Drought damaged nearly 290,000 hectares of rice in eight provinces. Battambang suffering the worst damage. Floods also damaged another 156,000 hectares in ten provinces, about one in twenty hectares of the wet season crop. The water ministry expects El Nino conditions to continue into February and is trying to get everyone to conserve water before the dry season begins (usually the rainy season ends about this time of year).

Read more: CamboJA News

2010 Goal Met: Rice Exports Pass 1 Tonnes

Milled rice exports have passed a million tonnes this year, finally reaching a target the government set in 2010. The planted area has more than doubled since the early 1990s to more than 4 million hectares today. China, the European Union and the Philippines are the biggest buyers.

Read more: Khmer Times

OOCL Direct South China Service to Sihanoukville

OOCL is adding Sihanoukville (and Thailand's Songkhla) to a direct container route serving southern China. The CCT4 service will run through Nansha, Shekou, Sihanoukville and Songkhla before going back to Nansha. The shipping line hasn’t published vessel sizes or sailing frequency, but the new route should allow for faster/ cheaper goods transport through the area.

Peace Accords Commemoration Banned (Again)

Phnom Penh City Hall has once again said “non” to a public commemoration of the Paris Peace Agreements, this one planned for more than 500 people. Officials used the magic words "public security and order" to justify their decision as they suggested that groups would be better off meeting in offices or private venues instead of in public. The 1991 agreements committed the country to multiparty democracy and human rights. In the end, organizers of the event settled for a news conference.

Read more: CamboJA News (earlier bans), CamboJA News (latest refusal)

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Thailand 20261023

August Whitcraft — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:09:47 GMT

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State Railway Sues CP Consortium for 13.3B THB

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is suing the CP Group-led Asia Era One consortium for 13.3 billion baht because of the stalled three-airport high-speed rail project. It is asking for a 10.67 billion baht payment for investment rights that was due in 2021 in addition to 2.66 billion baht in interest. The SRT is also trying to get a billion baht apiece from project guarantors Bangkok Bank and Siam Commercial Bank. Asia Era One has been trying to get out of the 224 billion baht contract, saying its lenders no longer consider the project viable. The railway authorities have been unmoved by this sad tale say the consortium needs to honor the deal. The line was meant to open in 2023, but as things stand today, it’s unlikely it could be put into service until 2031 at the earliest.

Read more: Bangkok Post

Cabinet Approves 10.5B THB for Flood Relief

The cabinet has approved 10.5 billion baht in flood relief, in addition to the 5 billion plus baht that’s already been disbursed. The new approval includes a raft of solutions including debt payment suspensions, cheap loans, tax relief and customs duty exemptions. Water is going down in most areas but still remains in parts of Bangkok and 22 other provinces. The floods resulted in the deaths of 80 people and directly impacted about 1.8 million. With more rain expected for the East and South over the next several weeks, southern reservoirs that are more than four-fifths full are getting ready for early discharge.

Read more: Reuters (relief package), Nation Thailand (cabinet measures), Thai PBS World (flood toll), Asian News Network (reservoir releases)

Finance Minister Shelves 1,000 THB Departure Tax

Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas has shelved a 1,000-baht tax that was being considered for every international departure. He’s keen to protect tourism as the busy fourth quarter approaches, and says that economic uncertainty and rising airline costs related to the Middle East war are weighing heavily. He made no mention that the idea was ill-advised to begin with. Boosters of the tax, who apparently did not understand how price impacts demand, claimed that it would raise 45.9 billion baht, but travel agents, who better understand price sensitivity, said it could cost the tourism industry up to 150 billion baht a year. The separate 450-baht entry fee remains unchanged.

Read more: Bangkok Post (tax decision), Nation Thailand (tourism concerns), Khaosod English (industry estimates)

Finance Ministry Wants 30% Tax on Imported EVs

The Finance Ministry will ask the cabinet to triple the excise tax on fully imported EVs to at least 30 percent beginning on New Year’s Day, 2027. Locally assembled cars would require a lower tariff, particularly any that are built with substantial local content. Auto industry representative Suwat Supakandechakul came out in opposition to a grace period because he fears a rush of “panic” buying, and fears that struggling import brands could quit the market. Buyers are anyways expected to be aggressive buyers going into the upcoming Motor Expo out of a fear of price increases.

PM Courts Thammanat's Party Ahead of No-Confidence Debate

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is courting Thammanat Prompao's Kla Tham Party ahead of an expected no-confidence debate. Kla Tham’s 58 MPs would give the coalition a commanding 350 seats. Anutin insists his friendship with convicted drug-trafficker Thammanat has “nothing to do with politics,” but his appearance in a group photo at a Kla Tham MP's birthday party in Parliament suggests otherwise. The government wants four days for the no-confidence debate starting October 27; the opposition thinks that five days would be more appropriate.

FM Asks China to Ease Up on Scam Warnings

Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow is asking the Chinese Embassy to soften its travel warnings to avoid/ prevent what he says is a needless panic. The embassy has been warning Chinese nationals about fake job offers after several people went missing, with some of them reportedly detained or lured to the Myanmar border. Tourism Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul is asking for a formal explanation as well since says he says the warning is going to (or already is) hurt(ing) Chinese visitor numbers.

Read more: Nation Thailand (diplomatic response), Thai PBS World (missing travelers)

Oppo MP, Ex-Poll Official on Sedition Charges

People's Party MP Parit Wacharasindhu and former election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn are two of eight people facing charges including sedition and “membership of a secret society.” The case is based on an alleged attempt to decode ballot barcodes during a Bangkok election rerun in February. Observers reportedly photographed marked ballots to test whether it was possible to use the codes to reveal individual votes, a privacy concern that’s already been at the center of several legal challenges. The sedition and secret society charges come with up to seven years in prison, but the Justice Ministry is weighing if if makes sense to send the case to the Department of Special Investigation.

Bitget Plans to Buy Loss-Making Crypto Exchange Weeks After Breach

Bitget is planning to buy licensed crypto exchange GMO-Z.com Cryptonomics not long after a breach that the company says impacted about $388 million in assets. GMO Internet and its local subsidiary are unloading nearly all their shares for an undisclosed price. The exchange lost 74.16 million baht from operations in 2025, and the deal will close on October 31 if regulators give their blessing.

Customs Inspects Every Scrap Container, Proposes Import Ban

Customs officers have been opening every container that’s been declared to contain metal scrap so that they can find any electronic waste that’s been hidden too densely for X-ray scanners to see. Scrap steel, aluminum and copper imports were reported at 2.76 million tonnes from January through September; the Customs Department seized 10,029 tonnes of illegally imported electronic waste in the fiscal year ending in September and has sent more than half of that total back to where it came from. The department wants a see ban on ferrous, copper, aluminum and rubber scrap imports.

Read more: Bangkok Post (inspection drive), Metal (import figures)

Commerce Ministry Nominee Checks Extends to Waste Companies

The Commerce Ministry is looking into another 44 waste companies in Prachin Buri after earlier checks found four firms that are believed to have been using local nominee shareholders. The inquiry began after media reports made claims of pollution and nominee ownership at an area electronic waste recycling factory. Provincial officials have sent evidence about the first four firms, including their suspected nominees' financial transactions, to law enforcement. Nationwide, 2,863 waste businesses reportedly have foreign shareholders.

Minister Orders Patch to PHP Flaw

Higher Education Minister Yodchanan Wongsawat has ordered universities and medical school hospitals to patch a newly found PHP flaw, and has told them to put patient records and student databases first. The recently discovered bugs could let attackers take control of unpatched systems. The Personal Data Protection Committee is telling organizations to install updated (patched) PHP versions, review logs and to implement their breach procedures if they discover that data may have leaked. No local breach has been confirmed as of press time.

Read more: Nation Thailand (patch order), Bangkok Post (flaw discovery)

Gov’t Holds Cambodia to Six Maritime Measures

The government says Cambodia needs to run all six confidence building measures proposed by the Hague conciliation commission to completion rather than just picking the convenient ones. The measures call for restraint and an end to “misleading” public statements. Officials say the Permanent Court of Arbitration has not set a date for a third meeting, which is likely to take place in Kuala Lumpur.

Read more: Nation Thailand (government position), UA News (conciliation process)

AWC Inks Chiang Mai Tram Deal

Asset World Corp has signed a wide-ranging Chiang Mai development agreement that will be centered on a tram service to be named “Chiang Mai Tram by Lannatique.” Local officials (apparently bereft of any historical context) are claiming that it will be the country's first. No announcement have yet documented andy of the expected costs, routes or timelines.

Vietnam 20261022

August Whitcraft — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 04:05:13 GMT

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State Bank Orders Deposit Rate Cuts, Threatens Credit Quotas

The State Bank of Vietnam has told commercial banks that they need to reduce average deposit rates by at least 0.5 percent. Official Dispatch No. 9736 applies to new deposits of six months or longer, and the difference will be measured versus each bank's rates as set from October 11 to 20. The central bank says that it will be tracking average rates on new transactions through its reporting system for the rest of 2026. Nearly 20 banks have already cut their deposit rates, most by the demanded 0.5 points. Fourteen have also announced lending cuts, those rates have generally been reduced by 1.5 to 2 points.

Read more: Vietnam News (loan-deposit gap), Tuoitre (bank credit packages)

Hung Wants 10% Growth for 2027

Prime Minister Le Minh Hung has once again reminded lawmakers that Vietnam needs to be working toward GDP growth of at least 10% for FY 2027. It also wants to see GDP per capita of $6,100, labor productivity growth of 8.6% and consumer price growth in the neighborhood of 4.5%. GDP managed 9.95% growth in Q3 and 9.01% over the whole of Q1-Q3. Hung promised action to lower lending rates (see previous story) and steer credit toward exports, science & technology, and smaller businesses. Estimates for full-year foreign trade stand at $1.11 trillion, which would be the first time the number is able to clear a full $1 trillion.

PNJ Now Expects VND6.2 Trillion Loss

Phu Nhuan Jewelry (PNJ) is now saying that it expects a VND6.2 trillion loss for 2026 which is a brutal thrashing when compared to its previous forecast for a VND3.4 trillion profit. Most of the swing is the result of VND7.1 trillion in provisions for potential trade-in losses. Requests to resell or exchange jewelry have skyrocketed since a diamond smuggling case involving a former director of PNJ Lab came to light. Chairwoman Cao Thi Ngoc Dung says that none of the diamonds entered PNJ's business system, but that doesn’t seem to be having the calming effect hoped for. Share are down 68 percent since early July.

Read more: Vietnam News (revenue cut), Ww Fashionnetwork (share issuance)

Denmark is EU Comprehensive Strategic Partner

Denmark has become the second EU member to hold a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Vietnam. General Secretary To Lam and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen adopted the joint statement in Copenhagen, upgrading their previous “Green Strategic Partnership” of 2023. Offshore wind is the primary commercial ask. The General Secretary wants Danish help with green finance and renewables projects along Vietnam’s 3,200+ kilometer coast. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners and Petrovietnam have also come to an agreement on a planned ~1,000 MW offshore wind project in the South Central region.

Read more: VnEconomy (EVFTA commitment), VnExpress (university campus), VnExpress (second EU partner), Scandasia (CIP agreements)

Corporate Bond Issuance Drops 26%, Yields Up

Vietnam's corporate bond issuance was down more than a quarter to 26 percent in Q3 versus Q2 and yields rose across the board. Companies were able to raise VND179.4 trillion ($6.93 billion), however, which was 7.8 percent more than did in the year earlier. Real estate issuance was down 55 percent. In the quarter, Vingroup took in VND16 trillion (down from Q2’s VND61 trillion), and Masterise held at VND23.5 trillion. The two groups typically make up as much as 80 percent of the property' sector’s issuance. Public offerings hit a record VND31.6 trillion; banks were behind half of the 16 deals. Outstanding corporate bonds were reported at about VND1,540 trillion at the end of September.

EFTA Deal Scraps Duties on Norwegian Salmon

Norwegian salmon is going to be able to be imported into Vietnam duty-free once Hanoi's trade deal with Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein comes into effect. The current tariff is between 10 to 15 percent. Mackerel duties will go to zero over three years. About half of Norway's exports to Vietnam will become tariff-free on day one, and more than 98 percent of products will hit that floor within seven years. Vietnamese seafood exporters selling the other way need to meet product-specific rules of origin to qualify for lower tariffs. VASEP, the seafood exporter’s association, warns that Norwegian and Icelandic seafood could sharpen competition in Vietnam's premium restaurant, hotel and modern retail markets.

Read more: Vietnam News (supply-chain implications), VnEconomy (2023 salmon imports), SeafoodSource (signing ceremony)

HRW Finds No Independent Unions Despite Promises

Human Rights Watch says independent trade unions do not exist in Vietnam, despite labor law changes that were made in 2021. The HRW report says no regulatory framework makes allowances for them form, and that vague laws against dissent mean people who organize outside of state control often find themselves in jail. Hanoi has told trading partners, including the EU and EFTA, that the 2021 reforms allow workers to organize and that thousands of grassroots unions exist, but HRW says the only legal unions are under the Vietnam General Confederation of Labor, which the Communist Party controls. Party officials choose or approve those leaders, and its budget comes from the government and from mandatory fees that employers and workers are compelled to pay.

Read more: Human Rights Watch (political prisoners), Eurasia Review (HRW recommendations)

Alstom Bags Vingroup Order for Hanoi Metro Trains

Vingroup has secured a $897 million order with Alstom to supply Metropolis trains for Hanoi's new metro lines. Alstom hasn’t said how many trains the order represents, but this order is part of a larger 200-train agreement. Alstom is expected to build up to 83 of the trains in Valenciennes, France, and Vingroup plans to assemble the rest in Vietnam from Alstom components under a technology license. The driverless five-car trains are planned for lines that Vingroup unit Vinhomes started construction on in June. Hanoi already has two operational metro lines, but the new routes will total 303.5 kilometers, including a connection to Noi Bai airport. They’re due to be finished in 2030.

Read more: VnExpress (Hoa Lac route), Tuoitre (Q3 booking)

Petronas and Petrovietnam Sign Alliance

Petronas and Petrovietnam have agreed to a Strategic Alliance Agreement for exploration, LNG supply, downstream work, renewables and carbon capture. The PM3 area, on the Vietnam-Malaysia maritime boundary, is estimated to hold 60 million barrels of oil equivalent in its remaining reserves. The contract for that area has been reported by some to have been extended 20 years to 2047; but other reports say it’s (so far) only a framework for the extension. Petronas has delivered its first LNG cargo to PV GAS. A Vietnam-Malaysia-Singapore renewable power link, which Petronas is joining, is still at the cooperation-development stage.

Read more: Vietnam Investment Review (PM3 extension), Vietnam News (energy security), Tuoitre (Hormuz risk)

FM Picks Five Crypto Exchanges, Licenses None

None of the five companies picked for Vietnam's pilot cryptoasset exchange program has an operating license yet, despite their apparent vetting by the Finance Ministry in cooperation with the Ministry of Public Security and the State Bank. Each of the companies was required to show at least VND10 trillion (about $386 million) of charter capital, working IT systems and compliance with operating standards. Vietnamese crypto participation is one of the highest in the world, reaching $122.2 billion over the past year. The “chosen” firms will have one year from receiving their initial-stage certificate to meet any outstanding requirements.

VN Buget Arm Eyes Up To 25 A321neos

Vietnam Airlines is asking lessors to find them between 20 and 25 Airbus A321neos in a 240-seat configuration to allow them to get back to the low-cost market as early as 2027. The flag carrier is still trying to offload its stake in Pacific Airlines, the existing low-cost unit and already has 50 Boeing 737-8s on firm order for delivery from 2030 to 2032.

Draft Plan Offers 5-Year Tax Exemption for Talent

A draft National Assembly resolution would give talented individuals and their associates a five-year, 100 percent exemption from personal income tax on salaries and bonuses. It will apply to Vietnamese citizens, overseas Vietnamese and foreign nationals. Businesses in every economic sector could take part, including on tasks that use no state budget money. Degrees, titles and seniority would not be required, except where the law demands qualifications to practice a profession. The government would set criteria for each sector and locality. No timeline was given.

Read more: VnEconomy

Forestry Department Publishes Map for EU Rules

Vietnam's forestry department has published a map of the country's forests as of 2020 for timber, coffee and rubber exporters. EU deforestation rules require proof that products are not connected to any deforestation or forest degradation in the period since December 31, 2020, so the map can be used for cross-checking, but will not be used to enforce compliance. Exporters are expected to have traceability documents and other supporting evidence.

Laos 20261021

August Whitcraft — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 03:40:34 GMT

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China Opens Joint Aviation Center Near Vientiane

China and Laos have opened a joint training center and aviation academy at Ban Keun airfield, just 50 short km north of Vientiane. Satellite images show a 2,000-meter runway with space to extend it by at least another thousand meters, in addition to an apron fit for about two dozen planes. Chinese firms were able to get the first phase built in less than 11 months, and works are ongoing. Once upon a time, the airfield was known as Lima Site 44, where the CIA-owned Air America flew Hmong troops. Eight trainer jets believed to be Hongdu JL-8s are reportedly on site, but interestingly the Lao air force officially only owns four. Probably nothing.

Read more: AP (regional reaction), The Straits Times (China's footprint), ABC (no Chinese garrison), Military Watch Magazine (overseas base claim)

US Trade Panel Clears Way for Duties on Lao Solar

The US International Trade Commission has decided that solar cell imports from Laos, India and Indonesia have harmed American manufacturers. Their decision allows the Commerce Department to finalize antidumping and countervailing duties on the responsible parties. An industry alliance led by First Solar, Hanwha Qcells USA and Mission Solar Energy says that it expects the orders to be handed out on Nov. 2 and that the duties will close a route that Chinese-owned companies in Laos and Indonesia have been using (apparently with some success, until now) to sidestep previous trade allegations/ cases.

Names Named in Luang Prabang Meth Jet Case

Philippine authorities have named 11 people of interest in the 3.5 billion peso, 521-kilogram meth shipment that Lao police caught at Luang Prabang airport. The claim is that former Bangsamoro parliament member Sultan Edrieza Rimbang financed the operation and that aviation security sergeant Aileen Mendoza was responsible for managing the Manila hangar where the jet was expected to be parked on arrival. Philippine reports say Rimbang is still in the country but the pilot who secured the jet has already departed. None of the 11 is yet subject to a Philippine arrest warrant and the only one in custody is Rimbang's brother-in-law, Fahad Dibarosan, who was arrested in Laos, inconveniently in possession of the drug-filled suitcases.

Read more: Philippine Daily Inquirer (Manila consignee), SunStar (pilot's role), Philstar (jet and seizure), Philstar (Sam Gor link)

PM Orders Fix for Vientiane Water Shortage

Prime Minister Saleumxay Kommasith is trying to get the Public Works and Transport Ministry to get moving on the capital's water shortage. Vientiane's utility is able to supply about 400,000 cubic meters daily, but demand is just over 500,000. More than a fifth of the capital's villages STILL don’t have tap water (mostly in Pakngum, Sangthong and Xaythany). A new plant in Banmai plant is due to open in April of next year and a Chinaimo plant extension is expected to add 40,000 cubic meters daily in 2028.

Read more: Laotian Times

Authorities Slap 153 For COVID Quarantine Fees

Authorities have disciplined 153 people and referred 21 more to court because of a COVID-era scheme that (allegedly) let some Chinese nationals skip quarantine fees even as they charged others amounts that were higher than the official rates. The losses are estimated at about $2.2 million. Those implicated include civil servants, police officers and even some local business operators. Authorities say they have recovered all the money owed in baht and dollars, but amounts skimmed in kip and Chinese yuan remain outstanding.

Read more: Laotian Times

Photo by Savas Karaca on Unsplash

Security Forum CICA Gives Full Membership

After about nine years as an observer, Laos has at long last become the 29th full member of CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia), an Asian security and cooperation forum. The upgrade will allow Vientiane a say in the group's decisions.

Read more: Laotian Times

Population at 7.24M, Growth Slowing

The first digital census run in Lao history has put the resident population at an estimated 7.24 million. Enumerators counted 6.74 million people directly, and a follow-up survey added about 497,000 who had (somehow?) been missed. Annual growth has slowed to 1.1 percent, and the birth rate has fallen to about 18 per 1,000 compared to 28 in 2015. The median age of Lao residents is a sprightly 27, and about two-thirds of residents make their homes in “rural areas.” Maybe surprisingly, some 301,500 residents still lack road access.

Read more: Laotian Times

Holiday Inn Resort Coming to Luang Prabang

IHG is planning to open a 101-room Holiday Inn Resort on Naluang Hill in 2027; the property will be its first in Luang Prabang. Naluang International Resort and Hotel will be running the deal and is pitching the property to business groups (500 sq m of meeting space on offer) in addition to tourists.

Neighbors Agree to Finish Border Markers Faster

Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia have agreed to speed up work on the remaining markers along their shared borders under a military cooperation plan. Frontline units will be running more joint patrols and plan to share more intelligence on drug smuggling, human trafficking and illegal crossings. The three armed forces have also made plans to take turns hosting rescue exercises.

Read more: Laotian Times

Raids Net 23 Excavators at Illegal Gold Mines

Officers have seized 23 excavators, in addition to screens, generators, trucks and gold-filter carpets, in raids on 10 suspected illegal gold mines in Vientiane's Sangthong District. Investigators say they’re now trying to figure out who ran and financed the sites and whether local people helped. We suppose that phrasing indicates the mines were (allegedly) being run by foreigners, but no charges have been laid to date.

Read more: Laotian Times

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Myanmar 20261020

August Whitcraft — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:45:29 GMT

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US Meets Junta Again in Tokyo

The US has had a meeting with the military-backed government in Tokyo for the second time in a month. Michael Vance, the United States assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research, led more than a dozen US officials for that delegation, but it is unclear who represented the junta. Reuters says Washington wants action against scam centers that have taken billions of dollars from Americans in addition to discussions on rare earths and the possibility of sanctions relief. Trump ally Roger Stone has begun lobbying for the regime. Members of both parties in the House have urged Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN, to block any junta attempt to replace Kyaw Moe Tun, the envoy appointed by the ousted elected government.

Read more: Reuters (talks), Asian News Network (Japan's role), The Guardian (analysis), Organiser (Congress letter)

Parliament Approves 2.1T Kyat of CB Borrowing

The junta's parliament has given its approval for up to 2.1 trillion kyats worth of central bank borrowing to cover the 2026-27 budget deficit. The same approval will also apply to loans of undisclosed size from two Belarusian banks that need to be spent on Belarusian goods. The regime has already raised nearly 14 trillion kyats by way of treasury bill and bond auctions. A dollar will now cost you 4,670 kyats on the black market, which is significantly more expensive than the official rate of 2,100. During previous currency slides, the regime has frequently taken the opportunity to blame traders and arrest them.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (kyat), The Irrawaddy (Belarus loans)

Migrants to Thailand Must Show Remittances to Get ID

Undocumented migrants in Thailand who want to get a Certificate of Identity are now required to prove that they sent 6,000 baht home through official channels and paid the mandated 2% income tax. The Certificate of Identity document costs about 3,600 baht, but agents are currently charging up to 15,000 baht (often deducting it from wages in installments) to arrange it. Five centers are issuing the certificates. Labor Minister Maung Myint doesn’t seem bothered, saying workers should consider the remittances "a donation" to the country.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Junta Forms ASEAN Committee to Win Back Seat

The junta has formed an ASEAN Affairs Committee to "regain the country's original role and rights" in the bloc. Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe chaired the committee’s first meeting; the defense and home affairs ministries also joined. The effort is notable because the regime's parliament continues to make some show of rejecting the Five-Point Consensus, a peace plan that it ignored and which resulted in the barring from summits to begin with. Returning to the table will need all 11 members to agree. Singapore and Timor-Leste appear to remain opposed, while five other members have recently hosted Min Aung Hlaing.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (committee), The Diplomat (Philippines approach)

Arakan Army Seizes Outposts Near Sittwe HQ

The Arakan Army has taken control of two regime outposts about four miles from the military's regional command headquarters in Sittwe. It now holds 14 of Rakhine's 17 townships. Navy boats are trying to land troops on Ngapyi Island, about a mile from the Shwemingan naval base. An AA source claims at least 50 regime troops have been killed there, but neither side has gone public with confirmed casualties.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (fighting), DVB (airstrike)

Photo by Kyle Petzer on Unsplash

Junta Restarts Refinery for Jet Fuel, Tanker Brings Iranian Relief

The regime has restarted the Chinese-made Thanlyin No. 1 refinery near Yangon to make jet fuel and sidestep sanctions. A Singapore-registered subsidiary of China's Peiyang Chemical Equipment got the rebuilding contract, and some parts made their way through Singapore to Thilawa Port. The first phase is expected to produce 150,000 metric tons a year, which is an amount roughly equal to the country's recent annual imports. The junta says the refinery will conserve foreign currency and steady the supply as it continues relying heavily on airstrikes to keep control. Separately, satellite images reviewed by Iran International appear to show a sanctioned tanker bringing Iranian jet fuel to Myanmar last month. The junta hasn’t said whether it got fuel or not and a US military official cautioned that the ship’s passage alone doesn’t prove that it evaded the US blockade.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Junta Cuts Palm Oil Imports, Yangon Prices Rise

Cooking oil in Yangon now sells for 15,000 to 25,000 kyats per viss (a local unit of measure that’s about 1.6 kilograms) on the open market, up from a reported 12,000 in September. The junta has cut palm oil imports and cut the region's quota in half, squeezing supply of a product that is responsible for nearly half the country's edible oil. The dealers' association is offering subsidized oil at 8,000 kyats a viss, with weekly household limits, but shortages are pushing most buyers onto the open market.

Junta Delivers King Charles's Books to Suu Kyi

Home affairs officials have delivered two books about soil, a sealed envelope and a message from King Charles to Aung San Suu Kyi. Then they shared happy photos of the meeting. Officials say that they spent about 10 minutes with the 81-year-old, who is serving an 18-year sentence. The government's short account said that the meeting went down in Naypyitaw but gave no exact location and shared no real details about the correspondence.

Read more: Reuters (books), Hertsad (delivery), The Hindu (detention status)

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Cambodia 20261019

August Whitcraft — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 03:49:10 GMT

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Interior Ministry Reviews Film of Scam Suspect

The Interior Ministry is taking another look at the intriguingly named “Cheat Mony”, a national police bodyguard that undercover reporters filmed working for alleged scam boss Deng Pibing. Deng boasted (on camera!) that Yim Leang, the deputy national police commissioner that oversaw Cheat Mony's department, is also the bodyguard's boss. Deng claimed he keeps $2 of every $10 and passes the balance on to authorities. Deputy ministry spokesperson Touch Sokhak said that the claims were nothing more than boasting. Yim Leang's brother Yim Leak, a Hun Sen adviser, is an alleged business partner of Deng. Deng departed Cambodia in late May; authorities say they don’t have any idea at all where he is.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (ministry response), CamboJA News (inquiry), The Better (Yim family), Cambodia Daily (scam compounds)

Hun Manet Sets Garment Wage to $210

Prime Minister Hun Manet has made the call and set the 2027 garment minimum wage at $210 a month, adding $2. Unions had been looking for $250.66 after taking a survey of 422 workers in 28 factories. More than 100 unions and civil society groups backed the demand, but apparently to little avail. Sieng Rithy of the Cambodian Youth Power Union Federation said the “token” increase ignores the seven criteria used in wage talks, including an IMF inflation forecast of 3.1 percent.

Thai and Cambodian Envoys Clash at the UN

Cambodian envoy Ke Sovann told a UN refugee agency meeting that about 24,000 civilians are unable to go home because Thai forces are occupying their land. Thailand's envoy, Benjamin Sukanjanajtee, shot back by saying that the homes are on Thai soil and that the Cambodians living there had been fleeing conflict in the 1970s. He said that their presence was an encroachment and accused Cambodia of starting the fights by sprinkling landmines through the area. Ke Sovann said Thai soldiers had walked into old minefields inside Cambodia and that Thailand started the fighting by killing a Cambodian soldier. Crisis Group reports about 20,000 displaced Cambodians and says Thai troops hold small pockets of Cambodian territory in four provinces. Bangkok refuses to reconvene the joint commission that was charged with surveying and marking the border.

Read more: Cambodianess (UN exchange), International Crisis Group (border analysis)

Workers Returning From Thailand Earn Less

Nearly a million workers have come home to Cambodia from Thailand, and as a result, the Cambodia Development Resource Institute says their return could lift national output even as it leaves their families poorer. The Labor Ministry counted half a million in jobs by December 2025, but returnees are struggling with lower wages, unfamiliar work and heavy debts. Their monthly earnings have reportedly gone down by more than a third. Remittances from Thailand dropped from almost $3 billion in 2024 to nearly $2 billion in 2025, and CDRI's “middle” scenario has them falling by another three-fifths before all is said and done. Harsh math.

Sanctioned Pair's Former Resort Pays Staff Late

Workers at Peninsula Bay, a $574 million Sihanoukville resort whose former directors have been placed under US sanction, say their pay keeps arriving late. The US Treasury sanctioned Aik Paung and Sai Aung Linn for their alleged involvement in scam and money laundering operations. Corporate records show they stayed on as directors of the developer until December 2025. The project is now two years late, and completion is being claimed for 2030. Chan Vorleak, who earns $11 a day making concrete forms, said her team is regularly waiting five to 10 days for wages due, but management blames the late payments from Peninsula Bay to their subcontractor. The developer itself wasn’t named in the sanctions.

Read more: CamboJA News

Photo by Jernej Graj on Unsplash

Phnom Penh Denies Giving Activists to Vietnam

The Interior Ministry is denying that Cambodian officials arrested a pair of democracy activists and handed them to Vietnam. Australian Tran Hiep and Norwegian Nguyen Duc Thuan, both of Vietnamese origin, flew into Techo International Airport from Thailand in mid-September. Vietnamese police say the two were picked up three days later at the My Quy Tay border post in Tay Ninh province. Hanoi says they were entering illegally and were members of (alleged terrorist group) Viet Tan. Immigration records show no official Cambodian departure for either man. An international network of lawyers claims that they were picked up in Cambodia and taken across the border, and they want UN and Cambodian investigations.

IMF Suggests Targeted Fuel Relief as Costs Rise

The IMF says pricier imported fuel and fertilizer are raising farm costs and weighing on agricultural output. Phnom Penh has cut fuel taxes and duties in addition to making cash transfers and cost of living payments to those harder hit. The IMF think that temporary, targeted help for vulnerable households is better than widespread fuel subsidies or price controls; they are asking Cambodian monetary authorities to tighten policy if inflation doesn’t ease.

Read more: Khmer Times

Approved Investment Drops Below $6B

Cambodia approved just $5.92 billion in registered investment capital from January to September, down from $7.8 billion over the same time frame last year. The Council for the Development of Cambodia signed off on 382 projects (almost a third fewer than they did in 2025). The figures include new money for existing projects. China ponied up more than half the reported capital, followed by domestic investors. Industry is still the main draw, and the council says that approved projects could create as many as 217,000 jobs.

Read more: Khmer Times

Phnom Penh Inks Pact With Türkiye

Cambodia and Turkiye have signed a military agreement in Istanbul during Prime Minister Hun Manet's visit. President Erdogan welcomed Cambodia's interest in Turkish defense products and took the opportunity to call for Camodia’s border dispute with Thailand to be settled by way of dialogue and international law. Minister Delegate Jean-Francois Tain made a point to emphasize that the pact is for training and capacity building, not the sale/ purchase of weapons.

Read more: Khmer Times (border dispute), Turkiye Today (agreement), Daily Sabah (talks), Khmer Times (training)

Hun Manet Boosts Kazakh Trade Route

Hun Manet and Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov are talking up a link between the Trans Caspian route and the China, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia corridor as a new path to European markets. Neither delegation made mention of any cargo forecasts or sources of funding. The first visit to Kazakhstan by a Cambodian prime minister also resulted in seven MOUs on digital government, trade, tourism and culture, in addition to a twin city agreement between Phnom Penh and Astana. Bilateral trade was $40.7 million through 2025.

Read more: Khmer Times (agreements), Trend (trade route), Qazinform (farm exports), Astana Times (trade)

Factory Rents Up, Luxury Condo Prices Down

The property market is bifurcating. Rents for ready built factories is up almost 4 percent QoQ to $2.90 per square meter a month, and asking prices for luxury condos is down nearly 7 percent. Rents for Grade A serviced apartments has dropped about 14 percent.

Bicycle Exports Up 23 Percent to $552M

Cambodia was able to export an impressive $552 million worth of bicycles and electric bikes from January through September, a figure that’s up almost a quarter (23 percent, to be precise) from the same period last year. The biggest buyers were the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia in that order.

Read more: Khmer Times

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Thailand 20261016

August Whitcraft — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 02:10:05 GMT

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Floods Kill 76, Cost Industry 18 Billion Baht

Floods have killed 76 people since mid-September, including 25 in the single province (just to the south of Khao Yai National Park) of Prachin Buri. Water is starting to recede, but Bangkok and 20 provinces are still flooded in parts, mostly over the Central Plains. Nearly 250,000 families have been affected in Pathum Thani, and the disaster department says it has paid out 4.12 billion baht in aid to more than 540,000 families. The Industry Ministry estimates that 4,635 businesses have lost a cumulative 18.21 billion baht, almost all that financial damage centered in Chonburi.

Read more: Bangkok Post (death tolls), Ua News (Bangkok flooding), Thai Enquirer (industry losses)

TG Suspends CEO After 25k Bags Stranded

Thai Airways' board has suspended chief executive Chai Eamsiri after flooding resulted in 25,000 stranded bags and more than 200 flight cancellations. Despite the “suspension,” Chai says he’s been more-or-less fired. Director and former PTTEP executive Samrit Samniang is acting as CEO for now. Early investigations point to floods keeping about 200 employees from work, as well as the late application of emergency procedures and a slow call for backups. Police (!) are investigating and have 30 days to come back with their report. The board also says that it is taking this opportunity to review outsourced baggage and ground operations contracts. The airline says passengers will be compensated automatically and delayed bags are able to be forwarded on any carrier.

Read more: Bangkok Post

2027 Budget Flat, Cuts to Transport and Farming

The government has approved a 3,788 billion baht budget for fiscal year 2027, just slightly (0.2%) more than 2026’s number, and the second near-flat budget in a row. Transport and agriculture spending will be reduced; military and police spending is holding steady. Health, education and welfare get modest increases, but there are no big new programs. The budget projects a deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP. Public debt was about two-thirds of GDP at the end of March, still in relatively safe territory.

CB Sees 3% Growth Within Three Years

Growth could return to about 3 percent within three years if structural problems ease, Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat says. That might be his way of saying that growth will not return to about 3 percent within three years. Nonetheless, he expects growth of at least 2.3 percent this year, slowing to 1.8 percent through 2027 before (possibly) finding a firmer footing. Piti struck a hawkish note on the 1 percent policy rate, saying another cut is hard to imagine without a major shock because the rate is already historically low. The next policy review is due October 28.

Tourism Industry Fights 1,000 THB Departure Tax

Travel agents are working to get Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas to drop a proposed 1,000-baht departure tax on all air travelers. The Tourism Council wants the government to consider the benefits of revenue against the damage to tourism. The hotels association says existing charges and two proposed levies would cost a foreign visitor about 2,570 baht each (10,280 baht for a family of four!), making Thailand less competitive as a destination. The draft also has a mechanism to allow the government raise the departure tax to as much as 5,000 baht. Consultation closes October 29.

EU Trade Deal Expected by EOY

Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun is sounding confident that an EU trade deal will be wrapped up by the end of the year. She says only politically sensitive questions about opening markets are still remaining open after negotiators were able to agree about rules of origin, energy and sanitary measures in the 10th round. The EU was the country's fourth-largest trading partner last year, with more than $43 billion in trade.

Army Disputes KH’s UN Claim 20K Can't Go Home

The army is pushing back on Cambodia's claim (at a UN refugee meeting) that more than 20,000 Cambodians are still unable to return home after December's border fighting. Cambodian Ambassador Sovann Ke said about 650,000 people were displaced at the height of the conflict, but Thai army spokesman Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree says the disputed figure includes people who took temporary shelter. Thai officials count about 4,600 people from to three settlements in Sa Kaeo. The army says the settlements are on Thai territory, a claim Cambodia disputes.

IMF, WB and BOT Launch Anti-Scam Blueprint

Digital scams cause an estimated $1 trillion a year in losses worldwide. The IMF, World Bank Group and the Bank of Thailand have come up with and launched the “Bangkok Blueprint,” which is a plan for preventing fraud and quickly freezing money that’s being moved around by transnational gangs. The government is also using a tool called “Connect the Dots,” which is a central hub that brings together agency data to spot patterns of scamming. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas is putting the project forward as a cross-border answer to borderless crime.

Police Block Anti-IMF March and Scuffle Over Banner

Police with batons blocked anti-IMF and World Bank marchers near the Rama IV intersection, keeping them away from the meetings being held at the nearby Queen Sirikit National Convention Center. Crowd estimates ranged from about 600 to more than 1,000 protesters. After negotiations, the marchers pulled back to a designated area nearby, but a scuffle broke out on a pedestrian overpass when about 10 protesters tried to unfurl a banner. The protest network accuses police of using excessive force to seize the banner and says the route and display had been agreed to in advance.

Read more: Bangkok Post (protesters), Nation Thailand (police response), Khaosod English (assembly law)

Swiss Foundation to Buy $120M of Carbon Credits

Switzerland's KliK Foundation is expected to buy about $120 million in carbon credits once both governments give their approval. The purchase is an expansion to an existing Bangkok program that has already put more than 2,000 electric buses into service. Swiss President Guy Parmelin and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul also talked about how they could speed up their trade deal with EFTA.

Read more: Bangkok Post

Anutin Gives Allies Engraved Casio Watches

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is giving cabinet ministers, senior officials and allies Casio watches engraved with his name. The model retails for less than $60, and recipients are comparing notes on metal and resin bands. The gift of watches is an interesting one, as timepieces have played an inflammatory role in recent political times. Anutin has reported 22 luxury watches worth more than 60 million baht in his mandated asset declaration, and former deputy prime minister Prawit Wongsuwan was involved (but cleared) in a 2017 graft probe into 22 wildly expensive watches in his possession. Government spokesman Ekkapob Pianpises promises that the gifts come with no political signal.

Read more: NDTV (recipients), Hindustan Times (purchase)

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Vietnam 20261015

August Whitcraft — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 01:59:51 GMT

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Hanoi Sends US Final Trade Deal Text

Hanoi has sent Washington the final text of a trade deal, and Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc is pushing for a quick signing. Vietnamese goods already get a 12.5 percent US tariff as the result of a forced labor investigation, and two other investigations, into industrial overcapacity and intellectual property, could result in more duties being applied later. United States Commerce Assistant Secretary David Fogel says he is hopeful, but Washington is still somewhat uneasy about its trade deficit with Vietnam. US data put Vietnam's surplus at more than $163 billion from January through August. Washington also wants Hanoi to ease up on some of its foreign ownership limits.

Read more: Reuters (trade talks), Energy Connects (economic growth)

EU Readies Minerals Offer for To Lam Visit

Brussels is keen to put a concrete minerals offer on the table for To Lam's expected upcoming talks with EU leaders. Internal documents propose loans, grants and export credit insurance for mining and processing Vietnam's tungsten and rare earth reserves. The courtship is still tentative, though, as Vietnam is not one of the EU's 16 strategic raw materials partners, and the visit is still formally unannounced.

Read more: Reuters (EU proposal), Tech Insider (mineral reserves), Modern Diplomacy (mineral mapping), Firstpost (investment pact)

Hanoi to Sign EFTA Free Trade Deal Sunday

Vietnam is on the brink of signing a free trade deal with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Talks began in 2012, stalled, then picked up again last year as US tariff threats rattled global trade. The agreement covers a gamut of investment, intellectual property, competition and government procurement issues. Tangentially, Norway's State Secretary Astrid Bergmal has plans to press Hanoi over the detention of Norwegian citizen Nguyen Duc Thuan, a case Oslo says is a high priority (see also next story).

Read more: Reuters (trade deal and detention), Mezha (activist detentions)

Australian Activist Held on Terrorism Charges

Vietnamese authorities continue to hold Tran Hiep, a Melbourne-based democracy campaigner, on terrorism and document forgery charges. They say he is a member of Viet Tan, a pro-democracy group Hanoi says is a terrorist organization. His family hasn’t heard from him since he missed a flight from Phnom Penh in mid September when Hanoi says it arrested him as he tried to enter Vietnam from Cambodia with Norwegian citizen Nguyen Duc Thuan (see also previous story). Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong says she has raised the case personally, but has so far kept her public language restrained.

Ho Chi Minh City FDI Rises More Than Fourfold

Ho Chi Minh City was able to pull in $17.2 billion in foreign investment during the first nine months of this year which is more than four times the amount a year earlier and about 150% of the full year target. Industrial parks and export processing zones brought in nearly $5.7 billion, beating their annual goal by about a third. The city's industrial zone authority is preparing up to 6,800 hectares of serviced land through 2030 as officials promise fewer checks before approval, but with fixed deadlines and more audits after things are up and running.

Read more: VnEconomy

Photo by Elliot Andrews on Unsplash

Proposals for Coal to Replace Stalled LNG

The industry and trade ministry is looking into the possibility of replacing long-delayed LNG power projects with coal plants under a draft revision of Power Development Plan VIII. The replacements could result in operations starting up sometime between 2031 and 2035, but construction should take at least three years from the time contractors are picked. The ministry is telling provinces to commit to the timetable and expects them to take any blame for delays while also asking the State Bank if financing is available and state coal suppliers if domestic mines have enough supply to feed the plants.

Traders to Set Fuel Prices

Fuel traders, not the state, would set pump prices under a draft decree that’s been floated by the industry and trade ministry. Under the plan, the biggest traders would declare changes to regulators and publish them at least 30 minutes in advance, and distributors would be allowed to charge no more than their supplier's published price. Regulators could investigate when two or more businesses controlling at least 30 percent of a local market worked to move (or appeared to work together to move) prices without a change in cost. Hanoi would retain the power to set caps or price bands in exceptional conditions.

Closures Fast-Tracked as Dissolutions Double

The Finance Ministry has told the provinces to speed up company closures after more than 48,700 firms were dissolved in the first nine months of 2026, a doubling of the year-ago pace. Business registries are required to send files to tax officials within one working day of filing and then, once taxes are settled (or the tax office doesn’t reply for two days), the registry will get another day to consider the company closed. Firms that vote to dissolve but fail to file a full dossier within 180 days will be struck off unless there is an objection sent in writing.

Read more: VnEconomy

EU Moves Hanoi From Tax Blacklist to Gray List

EU finance ministers have removed Vietnam from their tax blacklist and put it on the gray list in a show of optimism, but while still letting it be known that concerns remain. Vietnamese and French tax authorities have also signed a cooperation agreement; an EU investment protection pact with Vietnam is still in front of the French National Assembly, with ratification expected by the end of the year.

Read more: VnEconomy

Da Nang Approves WHA Unit Industrial Park

Da Nang has approved a Singapore registered unit of WHA to build a 400 hectare industrial park in the Thang Binh and Dong Duong communes. The project will be worth more than VND2.7 trillion, or $105 million. The WHA's unit will put up about a sixth of the money and says it will raise the rest elsewhere. Da Nang city is requiring land for worker housing and public services as part of the deal and construction is scheduled in two phases from late 2027 to early 2034.

Read more: VnEconomy

Vinachem Restarts $492M Lao Potash Project

State chemicals group Vinachem has restarted a $492 million potash project in Nongbok district, Laos. The plant is expected to pump out 500,000 tonnes of potassium chloride a year to give Vietnamese fertilizer makers a steadier supply of a critical input material. The announcement doesn’t explain why work stopped, originally but also indicates that Vinachem and unnamed partners are also considering downstream processing at the site. Factory construction should wrap up by the end of December 2028.

Read more: VnEconomy

Starlink Brings Internet to Hai Phong Islands

Starlink and FPT Telecom have installed 10 satellite internet terminals for officials and emergency units on Hai Phong's Cat Hai and Bach Long Vi islands. For context, Bach Long Vi island is almost halfway between mainland Vietnam and the island of Hainan. Service will be free for six months. Starlink is the first foreign company that’s been licensed to run satellite internet in Vietnam.

Read more: The Investor (pilot details), Tuoi Tre (island rollout)

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Laos 20261014

August Whitcraft — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 02:56:44 GMT

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PM Orders Fuel Reserve

Laos needs to keep at least 60 million liters of fuel in reserve, Prime Minister Saleumxay Kommasith told the National Assembly. Thailand supplies nearly all the country's imported fuel, which is a reliance that became painful when the Middle East crisis caused prices to double within weeks and forced more than a thousand gas stations to shut. The government wants fuel companies to buy from Vietnam, China and Singapore in addition to giving the Lao State Fuel Enterprise more authority to steady prices and smooth supply.

Read more: Laotian Times

Analysts Split Over China's Airfield

China and Laos have opened a joint support and training center at Ban Keun, a former CIA airfield about 50 kilometers north of Vientiane. Lao officers are calling it a pilot school, but satellite images are supporting a livelier argument. Pictures from above show eight K-8 basic jet trainers and a 2,000-meter runway that China has been building since late 2025. Eight is about twice as many trainers as analysts think the Lao air force owns and some think that an expanded field could become a forward base for Chinese aircraft. Beijing insists the center is "not directed against any third party."

Read more: The Economist (base debate), SCMP (satellite images), The Diplomat (skeptical view), Defense News (regional influence), UA News (forward base)

Nearly $2 Million Misused in Bus Project

State inspectors found nearly $2 million of diverted funds and idle purchases in Vientiane's Bus Rapid Transit project. The $99.7 million project used $1.52 million upgrading nine roads outside its approved scope and paid $456,000 to buy 150 electric three-wheelers. All of those are now sitting unused because nobody bothered to build parking for them. Contractors also built and demolished stations whose designs were never approved, though inspectors didn't report on what the cost of those blunders might have been. The audit also says a third-party company got $41.47 million from a lender for Electricite du Laos but then failed to pass it on.

Read more: Laotian Times

Vietnam's New PM Signs 11 Deals in Vientiane

Laos and Vietnam have agreed to 11 deals during Vietnamese Prime Minister Le Minh Hung's first official bilateral trip abroad. The package includes a border road, a Laos-Vietnam Friendship University, an oil supply infrastructure plan and a cybersecurity agreement. The breadth and scope of the agreements seem to be showing that both governments are keen to refresh a relationship that’s getting close to the 50th anniversary of their 1977 friendship treaty.

Read more: Asian News Network (transport talks)

Thai Developer Plans 200 Square KM of Parks

Thai developer Amata Corporation says its long-term industrial park plans could be as large as 200 square kilometers, which is more than six times the size of its first park, Amata City Namor. Amata Founder Vikrom Kromadit says Laos is now the company's "largest focus," betting that Chinese manufacturers want room abroad as political pressure from the US continues. Cheap hydropower is another draw, though, awkwardly, local consumers endure frequent blackouts even as the country exports about four-fifths of its electricity.

More Than Nine in Ten Job Hunters Look Abroad

More than nine in ten registered job seekers want to work outside of Laos. Thailand has been the recipient of nearly all of the more than 708,000 Lao workers who have gone overseas since 2016. In an attempt to lure people back, or keep them in-country, officials are considering raising the monthly minimum wage from LAK 2.5 million ($116) to as much as LAK 4.1 million ($190), but the Prime Minister's Office hasn’t said that it’s willing to approve the increase.

Read more: Laotian Times

Tourism Ministry Licenses to Provinces, Districts

Laos is giving most of its tourism licensing power to provincial departments. District and city offices will take responsibility for guesthouses, homestays and other businesses that have registered capital of LAK 1 billion (~$44,500) or less. The Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism is keeping control of foreign-owned businesses and international tour operators. Authorities are also going to increasing the rate of inspections at tourism businesses and border crossings.

Read more: Laotian Times

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Myanmar 20261013

August Whitcraft — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 01:15:21 GMT

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US Opens Direct Talks With the Junta

The US is talking directly with Min Aung Hlaing's government, reversing the isolation it has kept in place since the 2021 coup. Michael Vance, the State Department's intelligence chief, met Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw in mid-September and arranged for the release of American businessman Adam Castillo, a former head of AmCham Myanmar. Castillo, detained at Yangon airport in June, was freed and deported as the talks ended. In return, the junta reportedly asked for "official engagement at the right level." Washington claims to be mainly interested in scam centers targeting Americans, though the two sides also discussed heavy rare earths in territory largely held by ethnic armed groups. Min Aung Hlaing remains under US sanctions.

Read more: Reuters (direct talks), The Diplomat (diplomatic shift), Tamil Guardian (US criticism)

US Delists Junta Fuel Supplier's Daughter

The US Treasury has removed Theint Win Htet from its sanctions list after she sued for a second time. Justice For Myanmar called the decision deplorable. Her mother was delisted last year, while her father, Thein Win Zaw, remains sanctioned. Treasury says he supplied fuel to the navy and that his family owns at least 20 companies.

Read more: Bangkok Post (delisting decision), The Irrawaddy (sanctions record), The Diplomat (lawsuit details)

Anwar Hosts Min Aung Hlaing, Backs ASEAN Return

Anwar Ibrahim is promising to help bring Myanmar fully back into ASEAN after welcoming Min Aung Hlaing to Putrajaya with a guard of honor. He boasted that bilateral trade has more than doubled in a year, while Min Aung Hlaing urged Malaysian business leaders to "invest with confidence." Malaysia is the fifth ASEAN state to host the general, after Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, and Indonesia and Brunei reportedly plan to follow. Even after rolling out the red carpet, Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil insisted the meeting did not amount to recognizing the junta.

Read more: Reuters (ASEAN return), Reuters (Rakhine airstrikes), AP (Putrajaya welcome), The Diplomat (regional diplomacy), Religion News Service (rights concerns)

Report Ties Malaysian State Firms to Junta Aircraft

Three Malaysian firms, two with state ties, have supplied or tried to supply the military since 2023, Justice For Myanmar alleges. The watchdog released its findings as Anwar Ibrahim was hosting Min Aung Hlaing. It says FJ Global Aeroparts secured financing from PUNB, which is owned by a foundation chaired by Anwar, and made requests for quotes of warplane and drone parts. Junta engineers reportedly approached state-backed Asia AeroTechnic about repairing a military Airbus A319. Skyways Technics Asia, the Malaysian arm of a Danish company, allegedly shipped parts to brokers registered with the army's procurement directorate, probably for the Air Force.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Malaysia Sends 1,476 Home on Navy Ships

Navy ships have carried 1,476 nationals home from Malaysia, the first group under a deal to return 5,000 people chosen by Naypyitaw. Kuala Lumpur says the returns are voluntary, but everyone sent back had been in immigration detention, so it might have been a Hobson’s choice. The UN and rights groups say that returnees could be further persecuted and forced into conscription. Malaysia reported having more than 10,000 Myanmar nationals in immigration detention at the end of August.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (naval return), The Irrawaddy (ASEAN response), Myanmar Now (detention risks)

Photo by Vaibhav Surana on Unsplash

China Overtakes Singapore as Top Investor

China is now the top foreign investor in Myanmar, with $201.1 million approved in the fiscal year that ended in March. That was more than two-fifths of the total and about twice China's previous figure. Singapore, the longtime frontrunner, moved into second with $155 million. Total approvals were down by nearly a third to $472.6 million; much of the Chinese and Hong Kong money went into garment and shoe factories.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Junta Bars Migrant Workers From Returning Abroad

The Labor Department has stopped more than 300 migrant workers on home leave from returning to jobs abroad. Most were unable to prove they had paid a 2 percent income tax or sent a quarter of their earnings home through the official channels. Regime banks reportedly pay 63 kyats per baht, less than half the market rate on forex. Labor Minister Maung Myint helpfully told employment agencies that workers abroad should consider the remittances "a donation."

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Myawaddy Scam Compounds Rebuild as CCTV Hails Kokang Crackdown

China tried three times to talk Kokang's four powerful families out of the scam business before police started mass arrests in 2023, according to a new CCTV documentary. Ming family boss Ming Xuechang reportedly said that, "If we stop, we have nothing to eat." The crackdown did little more than push the industry south. Syndicates driven from northern Shan State are now rebuilding in Myawaddy, where the Karen National Army and the DKBA host compounds, though the documentary is careful to name neither militia. Nearly 60 scam sites have reportedly appeared in Karen and Shan states since She Zhijiang's arrest in 2022.

Read more: Bangkok Post (Kokang families), The Irrawaddy (Myawaddy compounds), Global Times (CCTV documentary)

UN: Two-Thirds of Country Poor or Near Poverty

A new UNDP survey finds that more than 37 million people, two-thirds of the population, are poor or a single setback away from poverty. About 18 million face poverty by several measures and another 19.5 million are vulnerable. Health and living conditions account for more than four-fifths of the deprivation measured in the telephone survey of 7,463 households. Rakhine is one of the poorest areas, with more than two-thirds of residents “poor.” The report estimates that at least 1 million young people may have left the country since 2021.

Read more: UNDP (survey findings), ABC News (poverty toll), UN News (youth exodus)

Commerce Ministry Stops Online Gold License

The Commerce Ministry has stopped issuing and renewing licenses for online gold and jewelry sellers. Anyone who decides to trade without one might be subject to between six months and three years in prison in addition to a fine of up to 500,000 kyats (~$240). The ministry claims it is protecting buyers and market stability after pawnshops and gold shops rejected some jewelry bought in livestream flash sales. Online gemstone sales are still legal with a Myanma Gems Enterprise license, as long as no gold is involved.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Embassy Brokers Sold Passports to Blacklisted Activists

Brokers working with the Myanmar embassy in Bangkok reportedly sold passports to blacklisted activists for 150,000 to 200,000 baht (~$4400-$6000) during the time that Zaw Zaw Soe was ambassador. After taking the post, he barred migrants from converting Certificates of Identity into passports and stopped doing renewals of expired documents. The brokers then took over both services as cash collected this way could reportedly bypass a rule requiring expired passports to be sent to Naypyitaw.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Regime Wants Interpol Notice On Exile Media

The junta says it has filed charges and is asking for Interpol red notices against people behind The Irrawaddy, Mizzima, DVB, Myanmar Now and Khit Thit, as well as other opposition figures. House Speaker Khin Yi said that the cases were criminal because Interpol doesn’t handle political disputes. But Deputy Home Affairs Minister Min Thu conceded that foreign governments "mainly arrest and extradite" suspects who are accused of drug offenses and other felonies, not members of the media.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

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Cambodia 20261012

August Whitcraft — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 03:48:06 GMT

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US Keeps Trafficking Tier 3 Ranking Over Scam Prosecutions

The US State Department has kept Cambodia on Tier 3, its lowest trafficking ranking, and says the government prosecuted no traffickers tied to scam centers. The report credits raids that closed hundreds of compounds and the arrest of Prince Group founder Chen Zhi, who was sent to China. It also says some senior officials, advisers and police profited from the centers and protected them, and residents and survivors said compounds began emptying before police arrived. Eight officials were demoted but none have been investigated, and US-sanctioned senators Kok An and Ly Yong Phat faced no action. Both, naturally, deny involvement. The government says it has taken down all 86 large centers it identified and frozen more than $300 million of assets.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (official complicity), Khmer Times (scam-center abuses), Kiripost (Operation XXL), CamboJA News (sanctioned senators)

PM Says Rubio Pressed Thailand to Ease Border Tensions

Hun Manet says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told Thailand to put a stop to behavior that raises border tensions or that looks like encroachment on Cambodian land. He said that a US embassy official (unnamed) delivered the message in an “urgent” meeting. The official also apparently asked Cambodia to confirm it wouldn’t escalate. Hun Manet wants Washington to help restart the Joint Boundary Commission. There’s been no survey or demarcation work since a December ceasefire brought a pause to fighting that’s already killed more than 100 people. Thailand's Foreign Ministry says the reports are "a distortion of facts" for domestic political gain.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (Kuala Lumpur Accord), CamboJA News (displacement relief)

Thai Maritime Dispute Talks Move to The Hague

Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn and border affairs minister Lam Chea will lead a delegation to The Hague from October 14 to 18 for the second round of UNCLOS conciliation with Thailand. Phnom Penh started the proceedings after Thailand canceled the 2001 MoU that had previously been in place to settle maritime disputes. The Hague session will be held behind closed doors, but Cambodia says that it can be okay with a treaty that fixes a single maritime boundary or a results in a joint development deal, or failing that, commission recommendations to guide future talks.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post

Fuel Import Bill Up Nearly 54 Percent to $2.82B

Cambodia spent $2.82 billion importing fuel in the first nine months of the year, which is more than half as much again as it did over the period last year. Gasoline rose the fastest, up 76 percent to $1.04 billion. Diesel is still the larger line item though, at $1.47 billion. Since the Middle East conflict began in late February, pump prices are up 39 percent for gasoline and 44 percent for diesel. Prime Minister Hun Manet says the government has spent nearly $500 million on subsidies, which he says will continue as long as global fuel prices stay high.

Read more: The Star (pricing period), Cambodianess (import breakdown)

Treasury Claims $2.5B After Banknote Rumors

Senate President Hun Sen says the treasury is in possession of at least $2.5 billion in response to social media rumors that the new 50,000-riel and 100,000-riel banknotes indicate that there’s cash trouble afoot. The payroll total for government salaries is $230 million a month, he said, and revenue so far this year is in excess of $5 billion. The new banknotes add anti-counterfeiting features and are being presented as simple replacements for the older, worn ones. The bank says that about 92 million of the older notes were collected and destroyed in September.

Read more: CamboJA News

Photo by Jeremy Brady on Unsplash

Cambodia and Vietnam Ink Six Deals

Cambodia and Vietnam signed six agreements during Le Minh Hung's first visit as Vietnam's prime minister. One has Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security helping build a national drug treatment center in Svay Rieng. The leaders agreed to speed up the link between the Phnom Penh-Bavet and Ho Chi Minh City-Moc Bai expressways. Both teams aspirationally confirmed that they shared a $20 billion trade target, but didn’t put any dates on when we should expect the benchmark to be met. Cambodia's commerce ministry reports $6.6 billion in trade through the first three quarters of 2026 and Vietnamese figures put it at $8.7 billion for the first eight months. Why there is a discrepancy is not clear.

Read more: The Star (border checkpoint), Khmer Times (business forum), Myanmaritv (expressway), Xinhua (agreement types), CamboJA News (drug center)

Angkor Foreign Visitors Down 28 Percent YTD

Foreign visitors to Angkor Archaeological Park fell more than a quarter in the first nine months of the year, to about 511,000. Ticket revenue was down a similar 26 percent to $24.2 million. Tourism Minister Huot Hak is blaming negative publicity, online scam concerns, border friction and the conflict in the Middle East that’s increased the cost of fuel (and, presumably, the cost of flights to Siem Riep). The United States, Britain and China remain the largest source markets, and the slide comes on the heels of a 7 percent drop in ticket buyers last year, when the state-owned Angkor Enterprise collected $44.7 million.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (ministry response), Khmer Times (rebound outlook)

Al Jazeera Probe Ties Deng Pibing to Scams

An undercover investigation by Al Jazeera's 101 East alleges that China-born billionaire Deng Pibing built his business empire in Cambodia on corruption. Reporters say they found scam factories and drug-fueled karaoke parties inside. Interesting video, if you have the time to watch it (about 25 minutes).

Embassies Switch From Visa Stickers to E-Visas

In good news for frequent visitors to the Kingdom, several Cambodian embassies have stopped issuing the old full-page visa stickers of every type and made the switch to e-visas. The change came into effect on October 3, and, while no reason was given, Tho Samnang, a former Foreign Ministry director-general, has been charged with issuing more than 12,000 visa stickers to a scam-connected criminal group in exchange for (allegedly) $3 million.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post

CITES Can't Rule Out Fraud in Monkey Exports

A CITES review says it can’t rule out fraud and corruption in the monkey-export(!) trade, according to PETA. US investigators reportedly found that output at five of six breeding farms was in excess of the species' biological capacity. PETA says a five-year US Fish and Wildlife Service investigation has resulted in federal indictments against eight people. The group has asked US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to bring a stop to Cambodian monkey imports for US labs.

Ministry Denies Sending Activists to Vietnam

Cambodia's Interior Ministry denies that its authorities arrested Australian Tran Hiep and Norwegian Nguyen Duc Thuan or handed them over to Vietnam. Immigration records show both flew into Techo International Airport from Thailand, but neither has any recorded departure. Vietnam says border guards detained them three days after their arrival in Tay Ninh province after they made an alleged illegal crossing. Hanoi says that they are member or Viet Tan, which it designates a terrorist group.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post

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Thailand 20261009

August Whitcraft — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 06:16:00 GMT

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Floods Stall Toyota and Four Other Carmakers

Floods have stopped production at five carmakers, including Toyota, with industrial damages so far estimated to be 6 billion baht ($178 million). A collapsed earthen embankment at Amata City Chonburi has resulted in the shuttering of 34 plants, more than 10 of them parts suppliers. Chinese and European brands are running normally on different supplier networks; most Japanese makers have been able to mostly get by so far, and remain little-affected. Assembly plants reportedly have parts through October 12, and Toyota is tentatively planning to restart full operations on October 11 or 12.

Read more: Reuters (damage estimate), The Star (Toyota restart), Yahoo Finance (affected carmakers)

Floods Kill 60, IMF Meeting ON, Egg Export OFF

Flooding since mid-September has resulted in the deaths of 60 people, including 19 in Prachinburi province. Flooding is ongoing in 27 of the nation’s 77 provinces. Bangkok, where four people have died, is busy cleaning up ahead of the IMF and World Bank meetings that are scheduled to run Monday, October 12 through Sunday, October 18, 2026. Separately, floods in Chachoengsao province, east of Bangkok, have killed about 3 million laying hens, forcing the government to ask egg firms to cut exports. The Department of Internal Trade also wants producers to hold the farm gate price at 4 baht an egg. Singapore was the buyer for nearly four-fifths of the 1.7 billion baht in eggs exported last year.

Read more: CNA (Prachinburi toll), ABC News (emergency funds), VnExpress (poultry)

Bank of Thailand in No Rush to Raise Rates

Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn says that he’s in no hurry to raise the 1 percent policy rate. The central bank now expects inflation to come in this year at around 2 percent, which is significantly lower that the number floated in its June forecast of 2.8 percent. Vitai said early assessments assumed flood damage would stay largely in Bangkok, but wider flooding could result in a more substantial economic blow.

Anutin Targets November for US Trade Deal

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul expects to sign a reciprocal trade agreement when Donald Trump swings through Asia in November. A recent letter from Trump placed the two sides at the final stages of talks, he told a Forbes conference in Singapore. The United States, Thailand’s largest export market, charges a 12.5 percent tariff on its goods and is considering an overcapacity case. Pitching investors on faster approvals and political stability, Anutin conceded that Thailand has fallen off investors' radar for years now.

Read more: CNA (tariff history), Bloomberg (investor pitch), The Diplomat (summit dates)

Household Debt 85% of GDP

Household debt stands at about 85 percent of GDP, down from recent peaks but still up there as one of Asia's highest ratios. The number of “buy now, pay later” accounts rocketed up from 620,000 in 2021 to 6.3 million in 2025. As an example of the woes faced by regular citizens, a Nonthaburi business owner owes about 12.1 million baht to formal and informal lenders and her business is losing 40,000 to 50,000 baht every month. The Bank of Thailand says a heavy debt burden could keep national growth below the economy's 2.7 percent potential (compare with Vietnam’s 10% targets). Only about 5 million of the country's 27 million borrowers are considered to be financially healthy enough to qualify for more credit.

Read more: Reuters (borrower profiles), Thailand Business News (consumer confidence)

Photo by Evan Krause on Unsplash

Opposition Files Censure Against PM, 17 Ministers

The opposition has filed a censure motion against Anutin and 17 ministers from his Bhumjaithai Party. The unproven allegations contained in the motion include corruption, abuse of power and conflicts of interest. The Kla Tham Party, whose 56 MPs backed approval of the 3.788 trillion baht budget, has left the opposition whip group and declined to sign. Anutin shrugged off the challenge, saying the debate will be “no problem” for his government.

Read more: Nation Thailand (minister allegations), Nation Thailand (Natthaphong statements), The Star (Anutin response), The Star (Blue Regime), Thai Enquirer (pre-filing preview)

Revenue Dept Proposes 1,000 THB Departure Tax

The Revenue Department thinks it would be a good idea to charge air passengers 1,000 baht whenever they leave the country, regardless of nationality. Tickets bought before the law takes effect would be exempt, but no start date has been set (or even floated). Foreign tourists flying in could also be assessed a 450-baht entry fee from early 2027. Together with the existing 1,120-baht airport service charge, an eligible visitor could pay 2,570 baht just for the privilege of gracing the nation.

Read more: Nation Thailand (exempt passengers), Nation Thailand (land/sea exemption), Nation Thailand (combined 2,570 baht), Travelmole (tourist fee support)

Move to Extradite Refugee Journalist to China

Prosecutors have opened extradition proceedings based on Beijing’s allegations of extortion and bribery against Bai Zhaodong, a Chinese investigative reporter who is recognized by the United Nations as a bona fide refugee. The Criminal Court hearing came without notice the day before an expected ruling on whether his detention in Bangkok since January is legal. Bai has been moved to Bangkok Remand Prison and continues to say that plans to fight against extradition. The next hearing is set for January 25, 2027. Reporters Without Borders said the surprise proceeding was “scandalous.”

Read more: Bangkok Post (asylum status), RFI (court appearance), RSF (UN response)

UAE Trade Deal Talks Wrap Up

UAE trade minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi and Anutin said the two countries have finished negotiating a trade and investment pact. Non-oil trade reached $12.3 billion in 2025 and rose by about three-quarters in the first half of 2026. The pact still needs a legal and technical review before it can be signed.

Read more: Gulf News (signing timeline), ARN News Centre (trade figures)

Marriott Signs For 7 Hotels Including citizenM

Marriott International has signed a deal with FICO Corporation for seven hotels in Bangkok, Pattaya and Phuket, for a total of 1,262 planned rooms. The agreement will bringing citizenM, Four Points Flex by Sheraton and Series by Marriott to the country for the first time. Bangkok is getting a 147-room citizenM on Sukhumvit 11; the largest property will be a 288-room JW Marriott Bangkok Sathorn.

AIDS Hospice Founder Gets 50 Years for Embezzling Donations

Former monk Alongkot Poonmook, founder of the Wat Phra Bat Namphu AIDS hospice in Lopburi, and fundraiser Seksan Sapsubbsakul have been convicted of embezzlement and money laundering. The court handed them terms of hundreds of years, but the legal maximum cut each sentence to 50. They are being told that must repay more than 300 million baht, about $9 million, to the hospice.

Vietnam 20261008

August Whitcraft — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 01:52:50 GMT

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Growth 9.95%, Q4 Needs 12.5%

The economy expanded at a pace of 9.95 percent in the third quarter, its fastest trot so far in 2026. The official nine-month figure is 9.01 percent, though one bank came up with 8.9 percent. Imports rose nearly 37 percent while exports were up about a quarter, swinging the trade balance from a $16.87 billion surplus a year earlier to a $19.42 billion deficit. The numbers imply that if the nation will hit Prime Minister Le Minh Hung’s full-year target of 10 percent, it’s going to need fourth-quarter growth above 12.5 percent.

Read more: VnExpress (official growth figures), VnEconomy (bank estimate), VnEconomy (fourth-quarter target)

Registered FDI Up 75%+ to $50.4 Billion

Foreign investors registered $50.36 billion in the first nine months, more than three-quarters above the year earlier investment tally. New projects were responsible for bringing in $29.24 billion (2.4x last year's figure); manufacturing and processing supported with $13.38 billion. Singapore led standings with $9.26 billion, almost a third of the new capital. Luxembourg ranked third with $4.99 billion, more than twice China's contribution. Disbursements found a five-year high of $21.07 billion, up about 12 percent.

Read more: VnEconomy

Samsung Arm Bets $1.88B on Chip Substrates

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is investing 2.51 trillion won ($1.88 billion) in its local subsidiary to make more FCBGA substrates. The substrates are used to connect AI accelerators, GPUs and CPUs to a mainboard. Production is due to start in June 2030, and the investment is part of a 6.78 trillion won program that has also allocated 4.27 trillion won to the company's Sejong operation in South Korea. Samsung says customer financing and long-term volume commitments are supportive of its heady plans.

Banks Line Up Nearly $7 Billion in Share Sales

VPBank wants to get a $560 million private placement as Japan's SMBC is in talks to raise its stake from 15 percent to 20 percent. Banks could collect nearly $7 billion from share sales by the end of 2027 - that would be the country's biggest bank capital drive yet. VPBank is one of three lenders that’s allowed to raise its foreign ownership cap to 49 percent. Strong credit demand and the shift to Basel III are forcing banks to find more capital.

CB Shields $29B in Mega-Project Loans From Limits

The central bank has carved $29 billion in loans for 18 mega-projects out of its yearly credit growth limits. The big private groups behind them are asking for the same (or at least similar) treatment for 17 more projects that are going to need $36 billion. Bank credit has risen from 124 percent of GDP in 2021 to an estimated 143 percent at last reporting. East Asia Forum says smaller domestic companies, which have little access to bond and equity markets, are struggling as they need to navigate tighter loan conditions. Perhaps as a result, business registrations were down about 14 percent in July and full corporate dissolutions nearly quadrupled. More than 48,700 businesses shuttered during the first nine months of 2026, more than twice 2025’s figure.

Pandora Opens First Plant Outside Thailand

Pandora has opened a $150 million jewelry plant in Ho Chi Minh City, its first production site outside Thailand. The factory is able to make up to 60 million pieces a year. To give a sense of the scale of the operation, that will allow the Danish group to increase total capacity by about half. Goods from Thailand and Vietnam will face the same 12.5 percent US duty, so the new plant offers no immediate tariff savings, but it does give Pandora another option if Washington changes its mind on tariffs again. The factory is expected to employ 7,000 people once full production is underway.

Read more: CNBC (tariff calculus), Inside Retail Asia (factory capacity)

Russia Asks for Jets, Including Crew

Russian Transport Minister Andrei Nikitin has asked local carriers to lease passenger jets to Russian airlines, complete with crews, maintenance and insurance. He says Hanoi is mulling the request over. Moscow kept more than 400 leased Western aircraft after its invasion of Ukraine, resulting in about $8 billion in insurance claims. Its 11 largest airlines now have 130 of 673 aircraft grounded, roughly twice the normal share. Because Vietnam’s flag carrier flies only Airbus and Boeing jets, any transfer could invite US secondary sanctions. Russia's approaches elsewhere have come to nothing, and Ethiopia rejected a similar proposal because of the same risk.

Read more: Euronews (Russian request), UA News (sanctions risk)

Vingroup Eyes 200 Metro Trains, Alstom Confirms Up to 83

Vingroup says its agreement with Alstom is for 200 Metropolis trainsets for Hanoi, including 117 to be assembled in Vietnam. Alstom would build the first 83 in France, then provide technology, tooling and some of the most critical parts for Vingroup to assemble locally. The driverless trains are intended for a network that Hanoi wants to run over 979 kilometers (18 lines) by 2045. Nobody has provided any indication of cost, and Alstom's announcement confirms only an order for "up to 83" trains once financing closes.

Read more: Vietnam Investment Review (local assembly plan), Tuoi Tre (network ambitions), Alstom (confirmed order)

Nippon Paint Gets AkzoNobel Biz for $1.35 B

Nippon Paint has agreed to pay $1.35 billion for AkzoNobel's decorative paints businesses in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Papua New Guinea and Australia. AkzoNobel, which manufactures under the Dulux brand, expects to keep about $1 billion after tax and payments to minority partners. The sale comes after Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams dropped a €12.5 billion bid for the whole company. AkzoNobel is still trying to complete its merger with US coatings maker Axalta. The Indonesia deal is due to close in late 2026, and the rest should follow by mid-2027.

Long Thanh Airport to Open but Airlines Hold Back

Long Thanh, billed as one of the world's most expensive new airports, is still expected to open near Ho Chi Minh City in December, but airlines remain wary of leaving Tan Son Nhat, and the new airport is expected to need no more than a tenth of its capacity through March 2027. The passenger and cargo terminals are two of four contracts that continue running under schedule pressure. The state-owned airport operator is funding and building the project. No private company is involved yet, though UK Export Finance has shown some interested in guaranteeing loans for nearby transport links. Full capacity is is expected by the late 2027 winter schedule.

Read more: Routes (airline reluctance), VnEconomy (construction schedule)

Regulator Wants All Hanoi Stocks on HCMC Exchange

The State Securities Commission wants every Hanoi Stock Exchange listing moved to the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange by year-end. It is also considering two or three boards based on charter capital, foreign ownership, number of freely traded shares and compliance categorizations. Technical tests with the clearing depository are moving forward, but the regulator hasn’t set any transfer date yet.

Exporters Claim CPTPP Tariff Cuts on a Tenth of Sales

Exporters sold $70.6 billion of goods to CPTPP members in 2025, but only about a tenth of that total apparently qualified for the pact's tariff cuts with a “CPTPP certificate of origin.” That’s a low number, but it’s up off of a very low starting point - it just 2 percent in 2019, when Canada and Mexico were the only members who didn’t have any pre-existing trade deal. The main snags remain textiles and garments, which must prove qualifying origin from the yarn stage onward.

Read more: VnEconomy

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Laos 20261007

August Whitcraft — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 01:19:19 GMT

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Apparent Attack Jets Seen at Chinese-Built Base

Satellite images appear to show eight K-8 light attack jets and more than two dozen support vehicles at Ban Keun, the day after the joint training center opened. The Lao air force owns four K-8s. The 2,000-meter runway could be extended to 3,000 meters, which would accommodate bombers, transports and tankers. Beijing is keeping quiet about which aircraft and personnel will be based there. The site is less than 170 km from Thailand's Wing 23 air base at Udon Thani.

Read more: Reuters (satellite imagery), The Diplomat (security implications), Modern Diplomacy (base background), Focus Taiwan (regional concerns)

Assembly Makes Saleumxay Prime Minister

The National Assembly unanimously made Saleumxay Kommasith prime minister and moved Sonexay Siphandone into the assembly presidency, vacant since Xaysomphone Phomvihane died in August. Sonexay had held onto the premiership after the March elections, and state media are offering no explanation for the change beyond the need to fill the vacancy. Saleumxay has been a deputy prime minister since 2022 and was foreign minister from 2016 to 2024. He has also served at the UN and studied in Moscow and Australia.

Read more: The Diplomat (political context), KDH News (leadership change), Thai PBS World (regional view), Laotian Times (domestic details)

Economy Grows 4.8 Percent, Misses Inflation Goal

The economy grew 4.8 percent in the first nine months of 2026, Saleumxay Kommasith told the National Assembly as it appointed him prime minister. The government expects 5.1 percent growth for the full year, missing its 5.5 percent target. Outside forecasts are gloomier, with the World Bank expecting 4.1 percent and the Asian Development Bank 4 percent. Inflation averaged 7.9 percent, well above the government's 5 percent goal. About 3.3 million international visitors arrived during the nine months, leaving the country well short of its annual target of 5 million to 6 million.

Read more: Laotian Times

Rare Earth Zones Named After Chinese Mine Halted

The government has identified two prospective rare earth zones, Bolikhamxay-Khammuane and Sekong-Attapeu, ten days after suspending a Chinese-controlled mine because of compliance problems. Officials have released no estimates of the deposits' size or quality. Lao ore is reportedly being sent to China for processing.

Police Seize 521 kg of Meth From Private Jet

Police found 521 kg of crystal meth aboard a Learjet at Luang Prabang airport and detained thirteen people. Seven are airport staff who, according to police, moved 23 suitcases through an X-ray machine and onto the jet. The aircraft had arrived empty from Malaysia's Subang airport. Malaysian police believe the drugs were headed for Manila, although one Lao report said the jet was expected to return to Malaysia. Investigators are checking for any connection to the July arrest of a Malaysia Airlines pilot in Indonesia.

Read more: The Star (drug seizure), Malaysiakini (Malaysian investigation), Laotian Times (Lao account), New Straits Times (flight route)

Photo by Daniele Franchi on Unsplash

196 Scam Suspects Handed to China, Thailand

Officials have handed over 118 Chinese and 78 Thai detainees to their home countries at the Boten-Mohan checkpoint and the 4th Lao-Thai Friendship Bridge. All but seven face cybercrime or telecom fraud allegations, while the others are accused of entering the country illegally. Police have detained more than 6,200 suspected scammers from more than 25 countries since January.

Read more: Laotian Times (Chinese handover), Laotian Times (Thai handover)

Thailand Backs $55.4 Million Luang Prabang Mekong Bridge

Thailand has approved $55.4 million in financing for an 820-meter bridge across the Mekong between Luang Prabang and Chomphet District. The government is preparing to sign the concessional loan agreement. Construction is expected to start sometime next year and should take four years. The bridge will shave 30 to 45 minutes off the roughly nine-hour trip from Thailand's Nan Province.

Read more: Laotian Times

Khammouane Prepares UNESCO Geopark Bid

Khammouane is preparing a UNESCO bid for the Hinboun Geopark, a landscape of karst mountains and river caves. Hidden Hands Cave holds more than 285 prehistoric rock art images and opened to the public in June.

Read more: Laotian Times

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Myanmar 20261006

August Whitcraft — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 04:01:24 GMT

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Yangon Rations Power Until the 2027 Rains

Yangon is getting electricity in alternating four-hour blocks, and officials say the rationing could last until the 2027 rainy season. The Ministry of Electricity and Energy blames El Nino heat for demand that could overwhelm power plants and crash the national grid. Min Aung Hlaing promised to fix the shortages in his first speech as president, but industrial zones powered by LNG and key government departments are still getting electricity around the clock. An elderly cancer patient in Thaketa Township said outages in her neighborhood usually last longer than the official schedule.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Junta Jets Kill Six at Rakhine Displacement Camp

Junta jets have killed at least six people at a displacement camp on the Ponnagyun-Kyauktaw Road, just a few short days after the UN and EU condemned the bombing of a market in Kyauktaw. Seven more people were critically wounded. Separate attacks on the Pan Ni Lar shelter, a nearby village and Rathedaung Township reportedly killed at least three more. The camps are said to be well outside the combat zone. An Irrawaddy tally attributes 383 civilian deaths in 21 massacres in Rakhine and neighboring Paletwa to the junta since November 2023. The Arakan Army now holds 14 of Rakhine's 17 townships and is pushing toward Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (Pan Ni Lar strike), The Irrawaddy (383 massacre tally), DVB (Rathedaung airstrikes)

Junta Bombs Flood-Stricken Dawei, Toll to 40

Floods and landslides have killed at least 40 people in Dawei District, where junta warplanes have bombed a village. Four 250-pound bombs hit Pi Taing in Thayetchaung despite the fact that there was no reported fighting nearby; no casualties were reported. Rescue teams are asking the military and resistance forces to stop fighting as blocked roads keep them from reaching six villages around Launglon. More than 22,000 area people are in need food and drinking water.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (infrastructure damage), The Irrawaddy (initial toll), DVB (ceasefire appeal)

Bound Remains of 12 Found Near Bagan

A mushroom picker has found the bound skeletal remains of 12 men and boys in Wetpoke village, about 45 kilometers north of Bagan. Junta troops reportedly arrested them near Gwaykone in June 2023 as they ran away from the fighting, then killed them a couple of days later. A report that was found and taken from a Pyu Saw Htee militia camp records 12 people as "cleared" that day. The Anyar Myay Civil Society Organization blamed militia leader Win Ngwe and army captain Bo Phyu for the killings. Win Ngwe reportedly died in March 2024.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Malaysia Clears 3,524 Returns Before Min Aung Hlaing Visit

Malaysia has approved 3,524 more Myanmar nationals for return after sending an first group of 1,476 to Yangon. The junta chose the names, and Malaysia is saying the returns are voluntary. UNHCR, barred from Malaysian detention centers since 2019, questioned whether detainees had chosen freely and understood the risks of getting sent back. Malaysian officials said the operation chiefly targeted Rohingya, but community leaders said few were in the first group. Min Aung Hlaing is expected to discuss refugees and migrants with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim during his upcoming visit.

Read more: DVB (detention population), The Diplomat (UNHCR concerns), Myanmar Now (community fear)

Photo by Mega Caesaria on Unsplash

USDP Reelects Khin Yi as Chairman

The military-backed USDP has reelected Khin Yi as chairman, brushing aside reports that President Min Aung Hlaing wanted his own loyalists in senior party posts. Power at the top is now formally split three ways. Min Aung Hlaing is president, Khin Yi leads the party and the Lower House, and General Ye Win Oo commands the armed forces. In practice, an Irrawaddy analysis argues, officers promoted during Min Aung Hlaing's 15 years as commander in chief still dominate the senior ranks.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Hong Kong-Backed Yangon Condo Six Years Late

Marga Landmark Development promised to finish its Yangon condominium, The Central, in 2020. Six years later, buyers are coming together at its sales office and demanding answers. Some have paid nearly 2 billion kyats in pre-paid installments, but requests for contractually required compensation seem to have fallen on deaf ears. Buyers (should we say “attempted buyers”?) say Tower 8 still has no foundation.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Junta Eyes Russian Help for Stalled Dawei Zone

The junta is trying again to restart the long-stalled Dawei Special Economic Zone on the Andaman coast, and Russia is reportedly being considered for port and energy projects. Thailand’s Italian-Thai Development lost all nine contracts for the initial phase after repeated delays and unmet financial obligations. The full project was once expected to cost more than $50 billion; a scaled-back first phase was priced at about $1.7 billion. The 138-kilometer road from Dawei to Htee Khee on the Thai border still needs major upgrades if it is ever going to be serviceable and fit-for-purpose.

Belgian Awards Body Gets Legal Action Over Junta Beer

Belgian awards body Monde Selection faces legal action for possible breaches of EU sanctions connected to its former ties with military-owned alcohol companies. It has since cut those ties and withdrawn the companies' awards, but that doesn’t mean that the company is off the hook just yet. A cautionary tale.

Cambodia 20261005

August Whitcraft — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 03:01:22 GMT

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IMF Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 3%

The IMF expects growth to slow to 3% this year, in perhaps surprising contrast with the ADB's far more ambitious 3.9% forecast. International tourist arrivals fell by almost half in the first six months, and the absence of close to a million migrant workers remitting money from Thailand through the ongoing Thai-Cambodian standoff has hit the national balance sheet. The IMF figures that inflation could reach 5.6% on energy costs. The government is a bit more bullish, expecting 4.2% growth on non-garment exports, foreign investment and state spending. PM Hun Manet says all large scam compounds have been shuttered, but the IMF says the reputational damage is still keeping investors away and also warns that bad loans are getting close to 8% of lending and wants banks, payment firms and casinos to vet their real owners, which local law, unusually, does not require.

Read more: CamboJA News

Hun Manet Bumps Garment Wage to $212

Garment workers will start to get a $212 monthly minimum wage from January after Prime Minister Hun Manet added $2 to a council vote that wanted to keep it at $210. Unions were asking for $225, and there was a band of 125 civil society groups who were asking for a $250.66 “living wage” based on median household spending of $391 and take-home pay of $287. Labor Minister Heng Sour is taking a rosy view, saying bonuses and housing and transport allowances bring the real figure to $231.50. Employers wanted no increase and say rising shipping costs and the closed Thai border are already hitting margins. The sector employs 1.1 million workers.

Read more: Xinhua (exports), CamboJA News (employers), Cambodianess (living costs), Khmer Times (workers)

Vietnam Trade $6 Billion, Far From $20 Billion Goal

Two-way trade with Vietnam was $6 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 7%. The relationship is becoming more critical as the Thai land border remains closed. Cambodia sent $2.96 billion in rice, rubber, cashews and other farm goods and received $3.02 billion in construction materials, machinery and fuel. That’s a $63.2 million trade gap, down from $92.5 million for the previous period. Vietnam has become the third-largest trading partner after China and the US, and is responsible for about an eighth of trade. Kandal and An Giang provinces have opened a new international crossing at Chrey Thom-Khanh Binh, though traders still question the quality of Vietnamese goods and Vietnam still hasn’t given China-bound Cambodian cargo transit rights.

Read more: Khmer Times (connections), Khmer Times (investment)

Thai Troops Raise Flag at Pursat Checkpoint

Thai troops (and monks!) raised their flag at the Thmar Da International Border Checkpoint in Pursat, resulting in another formal protest from Phnom Penh. The Foreign Affairs Ministry said the ceremony is an attempt to assert an "unlawful occupation" and said it was in breach of the December 27, 2025 ceasefire. They also referred again to maps drawn under the 1904 Franco-Siamese Convention and the 1907 Treaty.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (UN response), Cambodianess (border ceremony), Khmer Times (government response)

Hun Manet Calls Exiled Critics “Traitors”

Prime Minister Hun Manet is painting exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy and US-based commentator Muong Nareth of treason, saying their claims about last year's fighting with Thailand demoralized the military. At a road inauguration in Pursat, he angrily denied that Cambodian troops fired on Thai civilians or operated from the Preah Vihear Temple complex. CamboJA News said it wasn’t able to actually find the Sam Rainsy comments that Manet was referring to and Nareth, a former Radio Free Asia host who runs a YouTube talk show, said on Facebook that the accusations were fabricated.

Read more: CamboJA News

Photo by Virak Khun on Unsplash

Singapore Takes S$39M in Prince Group Case

Singapore police have taken possession of all S$39 million resulting from the sale of 2 Jalan Kilang Barat, a commercial building that the US Treasury claims was the address of 11 companies connected to Prince Group chairman Chen Zhi. A shell company set up by Chen Xiaoxuan (25-year-old daughter of businessman Tan Yew Kiat) bought the property in 2023. Police arrested Tan in November 2025 on laundering money charges related to Prince Group. The company tried to sell the building for S$50 million, but authorities forced a withdrawal of the listing and placed a caveat on it, later allowing for a S$39 million sale to Jackspeed Holdings. Chen Zhi is still waiting on proceedings in Beijing after his extradition from Phnom Penh, and Singapore still has a warrant out for Karen Chen Xiuling, another related party who is believed to still be in Cambodia.

DFI Retail Takes Over Starbucks Licensee

DFI Retail Group, the parent of Lucky Supermarket, is taking ownership of Maxim's Coffee Concepts, which is the Starbucks licensee that operates more than 1,100 coffee shops in seven Asian markets. The deal with Hongkong Caterers is expected to close by the end of March 2027. Daily operations will remain unchanged, and the businesses will continue sharing procurement, supply chains and the yuu Rewards program. DFI has operated locally since 2012 and owns 70% of the company running Lucky Supermarkets. Starbucks entered the market in 2015 and now has 60 stores in eight cities.

Phnom Penh to Take Afghan Refugees From Qatar

A 16-member task force led by Interior Ministry Secretary of State Kirth Chantharith will decide how many of the roughly 1,100 Afghans stranded at Qatar's Al-Sayliyah camp to accept. Washington asked Phnom Penh to help clear the backlog from the 2021 Kabul evacuation. The group will arrange flights, housing and security, but the order doesn’t make clear how long the Afghans would stay or who would pay.

Read more: CamboJA News

Garment Workers Cook as Heat Rules Lag

Phnom Penh saw more than a hundred days of 35°C or hotter from 2020 through 2024, which is more than triple the rate seen in the late 2000s. Garment workers are, as a result, “cooking” on factory floors. At one supplier, a thermometer that followed a 46-year-old veteran's shifts showed that the heat index was “dangerous” or “extremely dangerous” for nearly four-fifths of her working hours. At subcontractors outside TAFTAC or Better Work monitoring, the share was above that 80% benchmark, and workers didn’t even get the seniority pay and social security that had been offered by audited suppliers. The Labor Ministry is working to get temperature limits fixed in order to replace a toothless 2002 rule, but nobody’s seen the draft yet.

Read more: Pulitzer Center (GIZ report), Business & Human Rights Resource Centre (factory measures)

UN Envoy Counts 100+ Political Detainees

UN Special Rapporteur Thomas Andrews told the Human Rights Council that the government presides over "two Cambodias." One has ratified eight of the nine core rights treaties and accepted more than four-fifths of its Universal Periodic Review recommendations. The other is holding more than 100 people for exercising their basic freedoms. Worryingly, that’s a trend going in the wrong direction as it's three times the number at the start of 2024. Rights groups say there are currently 110 detainees including five journalists, five Mother Nature environmental activists and two student organizers, all who have been repeatedly denied bail.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (government response), Human Rights Watch (Commune Law)

Conscription Drive Draws 3,000 on Day One

Nearly 3,000 young Cambodians picked up military service forms on the first day, about a third of the roughly 8,500 recruits the Defence Ministry says it needs for this year. District military police bases will accept completed applications from October 10 to 15. Hun Manet cautiously said that the opening is a trial and that quotas remain under review. If too few people volunteer, a lottery will be used to fill the gap. Men aged 18 to 25 are required to serve for 24 months.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post (officials), Khmer Times (critics), CamboJA News (law)

Anti-Scam Commission Shuts Online Betting at 24 Casinos

The anti-scam commission says 24 casinos stopped online gambling by the September 30 deadline that it had set. It says livestreamed games, football betting, online lotteries and bird-fighting wagers have come to a stop and the equipment is gone, but didn’t go so far as to say how many of the Cambodia’s almost 200 licensed casinos offered online betting, or whether the 24 that stopped include any of the 18 casinos that lost their licenses or the nine that were already suspended. In it’s trumpeting, it also seems to have set aside the awkward fact that online gambling has been fully banned since 2019.

Read more: Phnom Penh Post

Angkor Visitor Numbers Down a Quarter

Angkor Archaeological Park saw 510,528 foreign tourists in the first nine months of 2026, which is a drop of more than a quarter from a year earlier. Ticket revenue fell in line with that drop to $24.23 million. Tourism Minister Huot Hak blamed the reputational damage from scam compounds, the Thai border standoff and higher global fuel costs. September brought a sliver of relief as arrivals held almost steady at 35,535 and ticket revenue edged up to $1.69 million.

Thailand 20261002

August Whitcraft — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 05:06:00 GMT

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Bangkok Declared Disaster Zone After Record Rain

Bangkok's city government has declared the capital a disaster zone after some parts of the city got more than 330mm of rain (an amount that is normal for the whole of the month of September) in just four days. More than 80,000 residents are stranded in flooded homes and 5,901 people are staying in 234 shelters. Water officials are racing to try and drain the floodwater into the Gulf before another downpour. The Chao Phraya Dam is releasing 2,400 cubic meters a second, the Bhumibol and Sirikit dams are doing their best to hold back as much water as they can upstream. The Pa Sak Jolasid Dam is at 109 percent of capacity. The damage is currently estimated to be about 11 billion baht ($327 million) and climbing.

Read more: Reuters (flooding and damage), Nation Thailand (dam operations), NDTV (disaster declaration), The Guardian (rescue effort), The Guardian (residents stranded)

THAI Baggage Pileup Forces Concession Review

More than 10,000 bags piled up at Suvarnabhumi after a September 26 handling breakdown, in a snafu that left some passengers waiting as many as eight hours for their bags and causing some flights to depart without luggage. Deputy Transport Minister Siripong Angkasakulkiat told the House that the ministry is reviewing penalties for baggage delays and asking whether Thai Airways should be allowed to keep its concession. The deal dates from the airline's years as a state enterprise and has not yet expired, so changing it could breach the contract, but it seems like it might be worth investigating.

Factory Output Index Adds AI and Data Centers

Industrial production grew much faster than expected and was reported to be just above 4% through August in the strongest showing since September 2022. The Industrial Economics Office responded with a heady upgrade, raising its 2026 factory output forecast from almost nothing to between 2.75% and 3.75%. The rise is in part a reflection of a revised production index that now counts AI hardware and data center equipment, which are sectors the government is pushing hard (see previous story). The manufacturing purchasing managers' index edged up to 54.3 in September from 53.8 in August.

Read more: Nation Thailand (output forecast), TradingView (August production), GuruFocus (index revision)

Cargill Puts $130 Million Into Regional Poultry

Cargill plans to spend $130 million over the coming 24 months to expand and improve efficiency of their poultry operations in Thailand and the Philippines. The existing Cargill plant in Saraburi is getting an automated cooked chicken line by 2028, an expansion that will increase total annual output to about 160,000 metric tons.

Foreign Funds Pull $635 Million From Bonds

Global funds pulled a net $635 million from local bonds in September, the biggest monthly exit in six months, as US Treasury yields climbed. Foreign investors also sold a net $781 million in stocks. The retreat is an awkward backdrop for Bangkok as it gets ready to host the IMF and World Bank annual meetings from October 12 to 18; more than 15,000 delegates are expected in the first return to Bangkok in 35 years.

Read more: Bloomberg (foreign outflows), Bangkok Post (annual meetings)

Court Clears Barcoded Ballots, Rerun Avoided

The Constitutional Court has dismissed 22 petitions challenging barcodes and QR codes that were on February's ballots in a 8 to 1 decision confirming that the markings didn’t violate voter secrecy. The decision heads off a rerun that could have cost more than 7 billion baht ($216 million) and leaves Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's coalition in office. Judges said tracing a vote would require matching ballots, stubs and voter lists that are kept by separate offices. Despite the decision, the court told the Election Commission to stop using any codes that connect ballots with results in future elections.

Read more: The Diplomat (court ruling), Prachatai English (judges' warning)

Infineon Opens $1.4B Chip Plant in Samut Prakan

German chipmaker Infineon has opened a semiconductor assembly and testing plant in Bang Bo, Samut Prakan, which the Board of Investment values at about $1.4 billion. The first phase has 30,000 square meters of cleanroom space and room to grow fivefold. Infineon says Bangkok could eventually become one of its largest assembly and testing hubs, but for the moment, the plant employs around 350 people (and that number might grow to 1,000 as production expands). Chief operating officer Alexander Gorski positioned the investment as protection against disruption in Malaysia, where Infineon has another site. Bangkok wants to collect $18 billion in semiconductor investments by 2030.

Read more: Bangkok Post (plant opening), Thailand Business News (investment value), MarketScreener (Infineon’s strategy), Developing Telecoms (production plans)

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Vietnam 20261001

August Whitcraft — Thu, 01 Oct 2026 03:58:54 GMT

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Australian, Norwegian Charged With Terrorism

The Ministry of Public Security has charged three men with terrorism and claims they they confessed to being members of Viet Tan, a US-based pro-democracy group that Hanoi says is a terrorist organization. Two of the three are foreign citizens. Ho Pham Hiep Huy, also known as Tran Hiep, is an Australian citizen, and Nguyen Duc Thuan is Norwegian citizen. Viet Tan says the pair disappeared near Kaoh Andaet in Takeo province, which is a different tale than the one the police shared which had them trying to make an illegal entry at the Tay Ninh border. The Australian Prime Minister says his government is providing consular help and talking with the man’s family. No word from the Norwegian government.

Read more: AP (the charges), The Guardian (the disappearances), The Japan Times (the arrests), BBC (police account)

Samsung Adds $1.84 Billion to Thai Nguyen Plant

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is putting up about $1.84 billion to expand its Thai Nguyen plant that makes high-end circuit-board parts for AI servers and data centers. The new line is planned for opening by April 2028. Company president Chang Duck-hyun says demand from servers and data centers already takes up more than half of the plant’s production capacity, and the project is part of Samsung's massive bet on producing the most cutting edge components. Its Thai Nguyen unit brought in about $16.2 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026.

Read more: VnEconomy

Ring Sent $462M to China With Fake Contracts

Prosecutors say Tran The Manh used seven front companies to move more than VND12 trillion (~$462M), to China in the five years between 2018 and 2023, disguising each transfer as a payment for imports. Declared imports totaled VND900 billion (~$34.6M). Manh allegedly opened accounts at dozens of banks, then had staff reuse cleared customs papers and forge Chinese company seals to pull of his caper. Because each of the banks couldn’t see what any of the others had approved, the same paperwork kept working. Manh, now on trial with 11 others, apparently took a personal cut of 0.04% to 0.08% from each transfer.

Read more: VnEconomy

S&P Ups Growth to 8% as HCMC Nears FDI Target

S&P Global Ratings has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 8%, up 1.3%, after the economy reported a growth rate of 8.18% in the first half. Ho Chi Minh City has reported $17.2 billion in foreign investment YTD, which is already more than one and a half times its annual target; the total is likely to get close to $19 billion by year-end. Factories aren’t driving the increase this time, however. A $4.9 billion Can Gio transshipment port and a $2.1 billion AI data center make up a big part of the story as the city’s investment mix is making a shift toward ports, logistics and computing. S&P expects inflation to average 4.7% for the year.

Read more: Vietnam News (GDP breakdown), VnEconomy (FDI project)

Electronics Exports Run $42B China Deficit

Computer and electronics exports were about $101 billion through to the end of August, which is more than half again as much as the first full eight months of 2025, but the industry imported roughly $162 billion in components, which is up more than two-thirds. About $59 billion of the chips, panels and circuit boards came from China, and finished electronics sold there brought in $17.2 billion, leaving a $42 billion gap. If all trading partners are taken into account, the sector ran a deficit of about $61 billion. The Vietnam Electronic Industries Association is trying to get more parts made locally, but it’s not going to come easy.

Read more: VnEconomy

Photo by Krzysztof Grech on Unsplash

Samarium Plant to Bypass China

South Korea's LS Eco Energy is investing about $8.4 million, for a nearly three-fifths stake in a new subsidiary, Global Shre Metal. Trial production of samarium metal will start in December using material from Australia's Lynas, the only large rare-earth producer outside China. The metal will be used to supply an LS Cable & System plant that makes samarium-cobalt magnets for missiles and (fighter) planes. A planned annual output of 240 tons could support the manufacture of 700 to 1,000 tons of magnets. US Defense Department rules will block Chinese material from this supply chain starting in January, but China overall still handles about nine-tenths of global rare-earth processing.

Read more: BusinessKorea (the Lynas partnership), The Elec (expansion plans), Rare Earth Exchanges (US sourcing rules), TechNode Global (the investment)

Tax Department Says 200 MNCs Owe GMT

About 1,500 foreign-invested projects have cleared the €750M/ ~$830M, revenue bar for the global minimum tax. The Department of Taxation says 200 multinational corporations (MNCs) owe money under the 15% rate, which overrides the tax breaks that have traditionally been used to lure investors. That rate puts their combined 2025 bill at about $624 million. Officials say that it’s a take-back of incentives that were already granted. Foreign investment commitments was $40.63 billion in the first eight months of 2026 and disbursement was at a five-year high of $17.25 billion.

China Canal Puts Can Tho Direct to Guangxi

The BBG Nan Ninh Bo Run has docked at Can Tho's Cai Cui Port, making it the first container ship to reach the Mekong Delta by way of China's new Pinglu Canal. It set sail from Nanning to the Gulf of Tonkin, then entered the Delta by the Hau River. The seven-day trip removes more than 560 kilometers from the old route that went by way of the Pearl River. Can Tho Port, Vietnam National Shipping Lines and China's Beibu Gulf Port Group are planning two sailings a month; each ship will carry up to 500 containers, about a quarter will be refrigerated boxes bringing Delta seafood and fruit to Guangxi. Port operators say the route could cut logistics costs by as much as almost a third.

Read more: Vietnam Briefing (canal cost), VnExpress (vessels)

Draft To Raise Minimum Wage, Ban Overtime Reductions

The National Wage Council has recommended an increase in the minimum wage and a draft decree from the Ministry of Home Affairs would raise the monthly figures in January 2027 by nearly 8% to VND5.7 million (~$220) in Region I and VND4.04 million (~$156) in Region IV. Employers would not be allowed to “claw back” the increase by reducing overtime pay, night-shift allowances or benefits in kind, a workaround that some of them used to reduce the impact of the ostensible cost of labor after previous legislated increases to the minimum wage. Companies would be required to update contracts and their pay rules. Hourly minimums would rise in step.

Read more: VnEconomy

Chevron, ExxonMobil Ink Deals with Petrovietnam

Chevron and ExxonMobil have signed separate framework agreements with Petrovietnam and its refining arm to open up new crude and gas supply channels. Chevron's deal covers possible cooperation on crude oil, liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas and refinery feedstock. ExxonMobil Asia Pacific's agreement with refiner BSR is expected to allow them to secure at least 2 million barrels of crude yearly for the Dung Quat refinery. BSR has been trying to broaden its supply base; imports from West Africa, the Mediterranean and Southeast Asia were responsible for nearly a third of its crude last year.

Read more: TradingView (the supply agreements), Simply Wall St (the ExxonMobil deal)

VN-Index Slips in First Week After FTSE Upgrade

The VN-Index was down 1.68% in the week after its promotion to FTSE Russell's secondary emerging-market category, as foreign investors sold a net VND2.7 trillion. Turnover on HoSE dropped by nearly a fifth to VND12.34 trillion (~$475M). Brokers think the thin trading can be read as hesitation. FTSE is introducing 10% of the market's eventual weighting at first and phasing in the rest through 2027, so index funds today have flexibility to buy only a fraction of what their final allocations will be. It appears to be a classic case of buying the rumor and selling the news so far.

Read more: Vietnam Insiders ($2B inflow estimate), The Investor (Q3 earnings forecast)

Long Thanh Sets $25 International Fee

International flights out of Long Thanh will carry a $25 passenger service fee, which is five bucks more than Tan Son Nhat charges and the same as Hanoi's Noi Bai. Domestic passengers will pay VND90,909, about $3.50, with is the same at all three airports. Long Thanh is expected to open commercially on December 1. The Airports Corporation wants it to take every international route that’s over 1,000 kilometers in addition to charter flights and any new routes once Tan Son Nhat is full.

Read more: Vietnam News (passenger fees), VnExpress (capacity), Tuoitre (Ministry of Construction)

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