Myanmar 20250617
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
China Plays Both Sides
Untested Commander Steps Up
Junta's Digital Dragnet
Resistance Snags Border Posts, Downs Jet
Junta's Brutality Fuels Mass Exodus
Earthquake Continues to Impact Economy
China Tightens Its Rare Earths Grip
Strikers Say Wages Aren't Cutting It
ILO Takes Action Against Junta
Junta Courts Russians as Tourism Crumbles
Resistance Builds Hospitals and Schools
China Plays Both Sides
China is supporting the military junta while at the same time engaging with ethnic armed groups to protect its interests in Myanmar. Chinese projects are continuing to run in areas controlled by non-state armed actors, creating a web of influence throughout the country. Beijing has arrested MNDAA leaders, closed border crossings, and pressured ethnic organizations to stop fighting while also continuing to provide backing to the regime. At the UN, China's representatives defend the military government against human rights criticisms. Myanmar communities worldwide are organizing protests against China's resource extraction and weapons supply activities, with demonstrations happening in major Japanese cities as multiple ethnic groups get fed up with Beijing's interference.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Bilateral Relations), The Irrawaddy (Strategic Miscalculation), Narinjara (Diaspora Protests)
Untested Commander Steps Up
Lt. Gen. Kyaw Swar Lin, 54, has been appointed Myanmar military's Chief of General Staff despite a lack of combat experience as junta leaders Min Aung Hlaing and Soe Win step back from direct command. The military is under pressure as it continues to be challenged with losses of territory in multiple regions. The Arakan Army, for example, has moved to within 5 kilometers of Kyaukphyu, a hub that’s home to several Chinese investments including a deep-sea port. The AA now controls 14 of Rakhine State's 17 townships. In Kachin State, the junta has begun offensives on areas rich in rare earth elements and jade deposits, using ground forces, artillery, and drone strikes against KIA-controlled areas.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Leadership Changes), The Irrawaddy (Arakan Army Advances), The Irrawaddy (Kachin Offensive)
Junta's Digital Dragnet
The junta has deployed an electronic surveillance system that combines biometric data, digital IDs, and checkpoint monitoring. A database that contains biometric data for 52 million citizens, allowed for 1,657 arrests between March and May. Human Rights Myanmar says that the system operates under the 2025 Cyber Security Law that has a requirement to retain data for 3-years, Deep Packet Inspection capabilities, and AI-powered facial recognition. More than 1,600 arrests were made over 10 weeks, mostly targeting ethnic minorities, women, and members of the LGBT community. The system is in support of a planned December 2025 election that uses new electronic voting machines, and creates a process that is widely being considered illegitimate as opposition parties have been marginalized and no independent monitoring will be allowed.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Surveillance System), Mizzima (Digital Discrimination), Mizzima (Electronic Voting)
Resistance Snags Border Posts, Downs Jet
The Karen National Liberation Army has captured the important Bawdi border post after a bout of intense fighting. The post, under junta control since 1997, was being defended by 40 soldiers who fled to Thailand. The capture follows KNLA's success in securing several border camps. In Sagaing Region, resistance forces shot down a junta F-7 fighter jet - the first such achievement by a Bamar resistance group since the coup. Residents from more than 20 villages evacuated in expectation of retaliatory attacks.
Read more: Mizzima (Border Post Capture), The Irrawaddy (Fighter Jet Downing)
Junta's Brutality Fuels Mass Exodus
Kyondoe town has become a battlefield with fighting between military and opposition groups. A junta airstrike killed 22 people, including 20 children. Children make up nearly 40% of Myanmar's more than 3 million displaced. Military forces are detaining civilians returning to Kyondoe, and running aggressive inspections including phone searches. More than 30 arrests and one confirmed death have been reported in recent months. The Army's airstrikes in Kawkareik Township have resulted in the deaths of six civilians, including three children. Between March and May, more than 520 airstrikes nationwide resulted in 462 civilian deaths and 884 injuries. In Magway Region, troops are looting and running bombing raids after failing to advance against resistance positions.
Read more: Mizzima (Children’s Impact), Mizzima (Civilian Detentions), Mizzima (Karen State Strikes), Myanmar Now (Magway Looting)
Earthquake Continues to Impact Economy
The World Bank says that it expects a 2.5% GDP contraction after the March earthquake that has resulted in $11 billion of damage and affected 17 million people. The disaster is compounding challenges from the conflict, power shortages, and trade restrictions. Inflation currently stands at 34.1%, and poverty is impacting about a third of the population; Yangon's urban poverty rate rose from 10% in 2017 to 43% in 2023.
Read more: Relief Web (Economic Monitor), ISEAS (Post-Quake Realities)
China Tightens Its Rare Earths Grip
China is expanding rare earth operations in the Shan state with protection from the United Wa State Army. Myanmar supplies nearly 50% of China's rare earth imports, including dysprosium and terbium, elements that are necessary for the building of wind turbines and electric vehicles. Terbium oxide prices, for example, have risen 27% over six months. New mining facilities have developed beyond traditional Kachin areas into promising new Shan state locations. China uses these minerals as trade leverage, particularly as access restrictions affect northern Myanmar. The Pradawng tribe is pushing back against the expansion of these operations, concerned about water contamination and environmental risks. They have responded with road blockades and mining equipment seizures, demanding mining suspensions until civilian government oversight is restored.
Read more: IndexBox (UWSA Protection), IndexBox (Supply Chain Control), Mizzima (Indigenous Resistance)
Strikers Say Wages Aren't Cutting It
Workers at Yangon's Tsang Yih Shoe Factory staged a weeklong strike demanding daily wage increases from 6,700 to 12,000 kyat but were only initially successful in winning a 600 kyat increase. These workers producing Adidas shoes earn roughly $68 a month and protests have spread to more than ten factories in Yangon's industrial zones. The current minimum wage, set in 2018, is 4,800 kyat ($1) for an eight-hour day. After wider protests, Tsang Yih factory said that it would increase wages to the 12,000 kyat that was initially requested. Low wages combined with inflation and currency devaluation have left workers unable to afford basics, a tragedy of worker exploitation in a sector where employees make high-value products but receive below-subsistence levels of compensation.
Read more: Global Voices (Wage Structure), Myanmar Now (Spreading Protests)
ILO Takes Action Against Junta
The International Labour Organization is using the rarely used Article 33 against the military junta - only the third time in its history that the organization has applied this strongest of enforcement mechanisms. The action comes after the imprisonment of 69 trade unionists, continued reports of forced labor, and the suppression of civil society. The ILO has also reimposed sanctions against the regime, the first such time since 2000, in spite of vocal opposition from labor-rights stalwarts Russia, Belarus, Laos, and China. The enforcement actions are similar to previous sanctions that were applied during Than Shwe's dictatorship. The European Union is asking for an end to violence, an arms embargo, and humanitarian access as it says that 22 million people need assistance and 3.5 million have been displaced.
Read more: Just Style (ILO Article 33), Myanmar Now (Sanctions Revival), Mizzima (EU Statement)
Junta Courts Russians as Tourism Crumbles
The junta is pushing hard to bring Russian tourists to the country with visa exemptions, direct flights, and high-level diplomatic meetings, but domestic operators say the efforts are futile. Despite claims of more than a million foreign arrivals in 2023, the ongoing conflict has made the main destinations off-limits, with beach resorts now controlled by rebel forces. Hotels are closing in former tourist hotspots like Bagan and Inle Lake.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Resistance Builds Hospitals and Schools
The National Unity Government says it has begun construction of two bomb-proof underground hospitals in areas under its control, and that it plans to expand the work to build eight facilities. The locations are being kept a secret because of the military’s habit of attacking healthcare facilities. The NUG put a pause on schooling after airstrikes that resulted in 24 deaths. In Sagaing Region, more than 20 medical personnel have been killed through attacks, airstrikes, and ambushes since 2021. Healthcare workers in the Civil Disobedience Movement are under the greatest threat. Spring University Myanmar is serving as a stand-in for the displaced academic community and runs 12 virtual schools, employs more than 200 faculty members, and runs courses for more than 17,000 students.
Read more: Mizzima (Underground Hospitals), Relief Web (Healthcare Workers Risk), The Diplomat (Exiled Academics)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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