Myanmar 20250624
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Crypto Thrives Despite Official Ban
ASEAN Unity in Disarray Over Myanmar
Energy Crisis Drives Junta to China
$11 Billion Earthquake Blow to Economy
Rare Earth Mining Causes Environmental Crisis
Checkpoints Strangle Border Commerce
Rival Government's Law Creates Uncertainty
Airbus Cuts Ties With Military Supplier
Dam Projects Threaten Salween River
Junta Rewrites Election Rules
Crypto Thrives Despite Official Ban
There’s a huge divide between official policy and practical usage of cryptocurrencies in Myanmar. While the Central Bank has a complete ban on cryptocurrency transactions, and users are under threat of prison and fines, the opposition National Unity Government has declared Tether (USDT) legal tender in areas under their control. Peer-to-peer crypto transactions are growing on Telegram messenger and via offshore exchanges, with USDT on Tron becoming one of the leaders for usage in informal international payments. Developers are working on low-bandwidth solutions and diaspora groups use Bitcoin/USDT for delivery of aid. Crypto in Myanmar is showing how it can play a role in bypassing financial controls in crisis situations, with users accepting volatility risk in exchange for financial freedom.
Read more: Coinfomania
ASEAN Unity in Disarray Over Myanmar
ASEAN's unified approach to the Myanmar crisis is falling apart as member states work through their own diplomatic channels outside the bloc's formal framework. This "parallel diplomacy" finds countries like Thailand engaging directly with the junta while other members hold different positions, undermining ASEAN's collective power. The fragmentation has opened opportunities for China to wield greater influence as a result. The fragmentation is a symptom of tensions between national interests and regional cohesion, a problem that has always shadowed ASEAN's much-ballyhooed consensus-based model.
Read more: Lowy Institute
Energy Crisis Drives Junta to China
A worsening power crisis that has reduced daily electricity supply to just 8 hours in many areas is driving the military government’s urgency to get more Chinese energy investment. Admiral Tin Aung San recently went to Kunming for talks with Chinese energy firms as the junta follows up on energy projects including the controversial Myitsone Dam and the Mee Lin Gyaing gas-fired plant. Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing has also started a program to support domestic solar panel manufacturing, asking for more cooperation between ministries to make it happen faster. The country's solar capacity reached 216 MW by end-2024, up from 181 MW in 2023.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Chinese Investment), PV Magazine (Solar Production)
$11 Billion Earthquake Blow to Economy
The World Bank says the March earthquake that rattled the Sagaing region has caused damage estimated at US $11 billion - 14% of GDP. The main vulnerabilities identified in the aftermath were non-engineered structures, unreinforced masonry, and inadequate enforcement of the 2016 National Building Code. Recommendations are to introduce modern seismic codes, retrofit any structures that are still vulnerable, improve land-use planning, and provide better training for engineers and builders.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Economic Impact), ReliefWeb (Damage Assessment), Phys.org (Construction Vulnerabilities)
Rare Earth Mining Causes Environmental Crisis
Satellite imagery shows a big jump in the amount of rare earth mining taking place in the Mong Bawk area (controlled by the United Wa State Army). The number of mining sites has risen from just three in 2015 to 26 by February 2025, many of them using dangerous or toxic extraction methods. Myanmar’s output has risen to become an important supplier of rare earth elements to China - it now makes up 57% of China’s imports. The trade allows China to outsource the environmental impact of the mining while still keeping control over supply chains.
Read more: Mizzima (Mining Expansion), CNBC (China Supply Chain)
Checkpoints Strangle Border Commerce
Trade along the Thailand-Myanmar border has been in chaos since the closing of the Asian Highway trade route in December 2023. Now, more than 48 checkpoints run by armed groups plague some of the other routes, and transportation costs have gone through the roof. Bus fares have risen from 30,000 to 130,000 kyat, trucks are being saddled with tolls of up to 3.5 million kyat. Daily supply traffic has dropped from hundreds of trucks to only about 60. Travel times have risen from 2 days to 1-2 weeks, and the prices of some products have risen four-fold.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Rival Government's Law Creates Uncertainty
Myanmar's parallel government enacted a controversial new law on June 13 that’s directed at civil servants who had to make a decision to either join or oppose the Civil Disobedience Movement after the 2021 coup. The legislation makes room to protect CDM participants but also creates a basis for legal action against those who cooperated with the junta. The law is worrying for its scope and seeming disregard for democratic principles, critics worry the law could make eventual reconciliation more difficult.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Legal Analysis)
Airbus Cuts Ties With Military Supplier
Airbus has rid itself of its ~5% stake worth US$140 million in AviChina Industry & Technology after getting pressure from advocacy groups. AviChina supplies K8 and Y-12 aircraft to the military; both aircraft have been used in airstrikes that resulted in civilian deaths. The #Airbus2Airstrikes campaign, backed by 361 organizations, considers this a success as it will be a substantial setback to the junta’s equipment procurement network. China is still the main supplier of military equipment to the junta, but the Airbus pullout shows that there’s rising risk for companies involved in supplying military technology.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Corporate Divestment), Mizzima (Rights Campaign)
Dam Projects Threaten Salween River
The Salween River, one of Asia's last major free-flowing waterways, is under threat of hydropower development projects. At least 20 dams are currently being explored - 13 in China and 7 in Myanmar. Thailand's EGAT International and China’s Three Gorges Corporation are important players in the threat to displace more than 300,000 while endangering the river's biodiversity.
Read more: Mongabay
Junta Rewrites Election Rules
Some substantial amendments have been made to the Union Election Commission Law, changing the composition of election sub-commissions. The new law allows three public servants to serve on sub-commissions, with one taking the position of “Chair” - a change from previous requirements for independent leadership. The Union Election Commission, headed by former Air Force officer Ko Ko, is working closely with government departments to get voter lists up to date and deliver electronic voting machines. These changes will make it even easier for regime-aligned officials to control the upcoming electoral process at all levels.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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