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Headlines:
Double-Digit Dreams Meet Reality Check
Doi Moi 2.0 Raises Red Flags
FDI Floods In, Hanoi Leads the Charge
Stock Market Rides High
Banks Scramble for Basel III Capital
Agri-Exports Racing to Records
Digital Economy on a Tighter Leash
Renewable Energy Growing Pains
AI Dreams Hit the Talent Wall
State Opens the Spending Taps
Trade Partners Line Up: AU, CZ, LK, DK
IFC Framework Takes Shape
Double-Digit Dreams Meet Reality Check
The government is chasing a heady 10% pace of yearly growth, a feat that will require nearly a trillion and a half dollars of investment over the next five years. Standard Chartered just bumped its 2025 GDP forecast to 7.5%, saying it was impressed by exports growing nearly a quarter, 24.7%, and on FDI disbursements notching $18.8 billion. Banks are going to need to double the credit they currently have in five years’ time if they’re going to do their bit to keep this party going.
Read more: VN Economy (Credit Growth), Fibre2Fashion (Forecast Upgrade), Vietnam News (2026 Prospects)
Doi Moi 2.0 Raises Red Flags
Resolution 68 is pushing local conglomerates into some very, very big infrastructure projects, and it isn’t clear that they’re not biting off more than they can chew. Vingroup suddenly announced a $70 billion high-speed rail plan a few months ago despite having (more or less) zero rail experience/ expertise. The government is dangling “limited bidding” rights and 80% interest-free funding to sweeten the deals, but investment pledges dropped 5% and foreign ownership has slipped out the back door as investors smell favoritism in the air. Even the central bank is sweating over the level of Vingroup’s leverage.
Read more: Strat News Global (Private Sector Push), Trading View (Red Flags)
FDI Floods In, Hanoi Leads the Charge
Hanoi pulled in $3.86 billion in FDI through October, nearly tripling last year’s pace, with 70% coming from existing investors doubling down. Real estate was able to snap up $1.35 billion while Thai firms are eyeing Ho Chi Minh City’s recent expansion, with Amata committing $180 million on a new high-tech industrial park. The city is now hunting for semiconductor and renewable energy investors.
Read more: Vietnam News (Hanoi FDI), VN Economy (Thai Investment)
Stock Market Rides High
The VN-Index broke through 1,700 points and is gunning for 1,800, with daily trading volumes hitting record levels. The upcoming Secondary Emerging Market upgrade in September 2026 could bring up to $5 billion from passive funds alone. The number of securities accounts hit 11 million, meeting 2030 targets five years early.
Read more: VN Economy (Market Momentum), The Investor (Foreign Inflows)
Banks Scramble for Basel III Capital
Circular 14/2025 is forcing banks into a capital-raising frenzy as Basel III standards kick in. Credit grew 13.4% to VND17.7 quadrillion, with real estate loans rising 25.4%, but the average capital adequacy ratio sits at 12% versus ASEAN’s 19%. Banks are chasing life insurance and digital assets as margins narrow from the rising cost of funding.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (Basel III), Vietnam News (Capital Markets)
Agri-Exports Racing to Records
Agricultural exports are racing toward a record $70 billion in 2025, up from $58 billion, with coffee hitting $8.4 billion thanks to prices rising by a dizzying 52.7%. China just overtook the U.S. as the biggest buyer, taking 21.4% of exports. The celebrations are going to meet headwinds from U.S. anti-dumping duties and rising competition from India and Thailand soon, though.
Read more: Vietnam News (Overall Exports), Agtech Navigator (Coffee Success)
Digital Economy on a Tighter Leash
A November 5 cybersecurity draft law ratchets up data localization requirements and now forces foreign firms to store their user’s data domestically, as well as to set up local rep offices. E-commerce livestreamers are going to have to undergo identity verification through the VNeID system, and platforms are expected to monitor them in real-time.
Read more: MLex (Cybersecurity), China Daily (E-commerce)
Renewable Energy Growing Pains
Power Development Plan VIII targets 73 GW of solar and 50 GW of wind by 2030, but localization rates are dragging behind Thailand’s 60-65% and Malaysia’s 55-60%. The retroactive review of feed-in tariffs for 173 projects has investors sweating. Tokyo Gas is partnering on nearshore wind in Vinh Long, and Thai firms have been busy deploying rooftop solar - now totaling 227 MW of installed capacity.
Read more: Reccessary (PDP8 Analysis), Energy Global (Tokyo Gas), Reccessary (Thai Partnership)
AI Dreams Hit the Talent Wall
Tech firms are putting AI projects on ice as the talent shortage bites. Almost half of providers say it’s their biggest barrier to growth. Misa narrowed its AI ambitions despite having 1,000 product staff, as demand for AI engineers has doubled. SK Telecom is building an LNG-powered data center with 2,000 NVIDIA GPUs, betting that infrastructure will be able to overcome the talent gap without much hope for a simple resolution in sight.
Read more: VnExpress (Talent Shortage), Coin Central (SK Telecom)
State Opens the Spending Taps
Budget revenue is expected at VND2.38 quadrillion for FY 2025, up 17%, and spending up 19% to VND3.06 quadrillion with development investment taking priority. Hanoi launched a 75-day sprint to get its entire VND107.13 trillion public investment plan into the market by mid-January.
Read more: Vietnam News (Budget), Vietnam News (Hanoi)
Trade Partners Line Up: AU, CZ, LK, DK
Queensland opened its second trade office in Hanoi, pushing AU$3 billion in coal exports and celebrating 29% growth in beef demand. The Czech Republic wants to quintuple bilateral trade to $5 billion, and Sri Lanka is filled with hope as it works to find $1 billion in trade from its current base of about $300 million. Denmark just cut the ribbon on a solar-powered garment factory in Ho Chi Minh City.
Read more: Vietnam News (Queensland), VN Economy (Czech), Scand Asia (Denmark)
IFC Framework Takes Shape
Eight draft decrees for the International Financial Centre need to be finalized by November 15, and they will cover all of the details on everything from banking to labor policies. High hopes are for operations to start by the end of this month. While that work continues, the National Assembly is tweaking public debt laws and the Ministry of Home Affairs is pushing for centralized electronic labor contracts, saying they are already processing 2.5 million of them every month and that there’s room for far more.
Read more: VN Economy (IFC), Vietnam News (Public Debt), Vietnam News (Labor Contracts)
That’s it for this week!
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