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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Catastrophic Southern Floods Test Government
EV Policy Adjusted to Prevent Oversupply
Trade Deficit Widens, Imports Boom from China
“World” Ordered to Delete 1.2 Million Iris Scans
China Rice Deal Provides Timely Boost
Foreign Business Crackdown Targets Nominees
Political Jockeying Ahead of Polls
Data Centers and Infrastructure Approvals
Digital Infrastructure Powers AI Ambitions
Real Estate and Tourism
Reforms Urged as Growth Slows
Energy and Environmental Initiatives
Legal and Regulatory Action
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Catastrophic Southern Floods Test Government
The worst flooding in decades has killed more than 80 people in southern Thailand, savaging 3 million people and impaction a million households in 12 provinces. Hat Yai reported 335mm of rainfall in 24 hours - the biggest number seen in 300 years - forcing evacuations and stranding critically ill patients. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul declared a state of emergency in Songkhla province and sent the aircraft carrier (yes, Thailand has an aircraft carrier) Chakri Naruebet that way with 14 boats, helicopters, and field kitchens. Economic losses could reach 25 billion baht ($776 million). Rubber production is expected to be especially hit hard. The government announced a three-phase recovery plan including zero-percent interest loans, debt moratoriums, and 100 million baht in immediate provincial funding. Floodwaters began receding Thursday, but criticism is growing louder over a slow initial response.
Read more: AP News (Death Toll), Khaosodenglish (Recovery Plan), Trading View (Rubber Impact), Bangkok Post(Economic Losses), Khaosodenglish (Government Criticism)
EV Policy Adjusted to Prevent Oversupply
The Board of Investment revised EV incentive rules on November 25 to prevent domestic market saturation by allowing each vehicle produced for export to count as 1.5 units toward manufacturers local production obligations. The policy change also will extend BEV registration deadlines from December 2025 to January 2027 and delays subsidy payments for manufacturers that miss targets. Thailand has been able to attract more than $4 billion in EV investments, mostly from Chinese manufacturers like BYD and Great Wall Motors, which now control more than 70% of the domestic EV market. BEV sales were nearly 90,000 units from January to October 2025, almost a fifth of total vehicle sales.
Read more: Economic Times (Policy Details), Just Auto (Program Changes), China Global South (Market Context)
Trade Deficit Widens, Imports Boom from China
Thailand posted its largest trade deficit since early 2023: $3.4 billion in October, which is a swing from a $1.3 billion surplus in September. Imports jumped 16.3% driven by capital goods and raw materials from China, and exports increased only 5.7%. Exports to the US, Thailand’s largest market, are up about a third year-over-year, keeping a 25-month growth streak alive in computers, machinery, and steel. Analysts from the Trade Policy and Strategy Office say the widening deficit could help reduce some pressure on the current account surplus and keep a lid on the baht’s strength.
Read more: The Edge Malaysia (October Figures), Bangkok Post (Export Growth)
“World” Ordered to Delete 1.2 Million Iris Scans
The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society ordered Sam Altman’s World (formerly known as “Worldcoin”) to permanently delete 1.2 million iris scans collected in Thailand after finding violations of the Personal Data Protection Act. The demand came after a high-level meeting led by Minister Chaichanok Chidchob and an October raid on World’s Bangkok operation for operating without a license. World said it had met its regulatory obligations and warned the order would adversely affect millions of users who signed up for “fraud protection.” World has paused iris verification services and removed Thailand from its list of operational countries.
Read more: Cryptonews (Government Order), DL News (Company Response), Traders Union (Legal Context)
China Rice Deal Provides Timely Boost
China plans to buy half a million tonnes of Thai rice in a deal that is expected to be finalized when Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits for the Mekong-Lancang summit in December. Political economist Somjai Phagaphasvivat thinks that Thailand’s growth could drop to 0.6% without changes to the status quo, but the rice deal will help to boost exports and bring in much-needed revenue through next year. The Commerce Ministry has been gaining interest, including a purchase order of more than 100,000 tonnes coming from Singapore. Domestic rice prices have risen thanks to supportive measures from the National Rice Policy and Management Committee. Farmers, including Pramote Charoensilp of the Thai Agriculturist Association, say they’re optimistic that the deal will improve rural conditions.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Deal Details), Bangkok Post (Summit Plans)
Foreign Business Crackdown Targets Nominees
Immigration and police ran raids targeting foreign investors using Thai nominees to get around ownership law. A British woman is facing prosecution for (allegedly) controlling a Koh Samui beer bar that generated 17.3 million baht since 2023; two Thai women claim they are only employees despite being listed as shareholders. Authorities also raided a luxury villa development on Koh Phangan this week to investigate Ukrainian investors that they say are using Thai proxies. The crackdowns come as officials say that illegal investors are not wanted.
Read more: Thai Examiner (Koh Samui Bar), Thai Examiner (Villa Development), Khaosodenglish (Investigation Details)
Political Jockeying Ahead of Polls
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul floated the prospect of a Bhumjaithai-People’s Party coalition government after recent MP defections to Bhumjaithai, as speculation mounts about the call for a General Election in December this year or in January-March 2026. The Bhumjaithai Party is picking up momentum with new MPs, including Varawut Silpa-archa joining, as it shores up its influence in regional power networks. Pheu Thai MPs are delaying a no-confidence motion to focus first on constitutional amendment debates that are slated for December 10-11. The party opposes plans for two 35-member committees without direct public input. The cabinet has approved a special parliamentary session to expedite the amendment process, necessary to get it wrapped up before year-end. Anutin can call for dissolution before a potential censure motion, but doing so could endanger the MOU that he has with the People’s Party.
Read more: Thai Examiner (Coalition Prospects), Thai Enquirer (No-Confidence Motion), Bangkok Post (Amendment Timeline)
Data Centers and Infrastructure Approvals
The Board of Investment has given the go-ahead for four new data center projects worth more than $3 billion, including an 84MW hyperscale facility from NextGen Data Center worth $826 million and a 200MW project from Zenith Data Center valued at $1.7 billion. The State Railway of Thailand is running more reviews of the high-speed rail contract with Asia Era One consortium led by CP Group, a decision that will result in more delays to the beleaguered project. The system was planned to connect Don Mueang, Suvarnabhumi, and U-tapao airports to Rayong province at an estimated cost of 225 billion baht, but whether it will ever come into being is anyone’s guess.
Read more: Trading View (Data Centers), Trading View (Rail Project)
Digital Infrastructure Powers AI Ambitions
Google Cloud launched TalayLink, a new subsea cable connecting South Thailand to Western Australia via Christmas Island to improve connectivity and support planned data centers. The connection includes two hubs in Mandurah and South Thailand, part of the Australia Connect project. Google also introduced PanyaThAI on November 28, a digital transformation program that is going to support 15 charter organizations, including Chulalongkorn University. The Labour Ministry has again agreed to a new deal with Microsoft to develop AI skills for 150,000 Thai workers through more than 280 courses. Dhanawat Suthumpun of Microsoft Thailand thinks the country can become a regional AI hub if it keeps up the pace of investment in data centers and green energy.
Read more: Total Telecom (Subsea Cable), Computer Weekly (PanyaThAI Program), Bangkok Post (Skills Training)
Real Estate and Tourism
Developers are again calling on the government to expedite relief measures as the sector is seeing its lowest growth in 20 years. Property transfers and new projects are at woeful levels: residential transfers are expected to be down 7% this year on transfer values that have fallen 11%. Current measures include relaxed loan-to-value rules that are expected to expire in June. Galaxy Entertainment’s Kevin Clayton wants Thailand to set up an independent tourism board and invest in integrated resorts, pointing to Singapore’s success with Marina Bay Sands, but Prime Minister Anutin has put the kibosh on casino legalization, limiting opportunities for international operators. Tourism arrivals are expected to finish the year at 33 million, a steep drop from the nearly 40 million that showed up in 2019. Revenue has, resultantly, dropped from $60 billion to $48 billion.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Real Estate Relief), Yogonet (Casino Proposal), Travel and Tour World (Tourism Recovery)
Reforms Urged as Growth Slows
The World Bank’s Melinda Good says that Thailand needs to get more serious about economic transformation if it wants to get to high-income status. She says five new growth pillars are needed: green manufacturing, agribusiness, health tourism, digital services, and more of the creative economy. GDP growth is at 2%, well below the 5% that would be required to get to “high-income” by 2037. Former Finance Minister Dr. Suchart Thadathomrongwet is asking the government to make a liquidity injection to weaken the baht in order to support exports and tourism, arguing that current manufacturing utilization is only at 50-60%. New Bank of Thailand Governor Vithai Ratanakorn shared concerns about what he thinks is an overvalued baht, a shift in the central bank’s view.
Read more: Bangkok Post (World Bank Report), Thai Examiner (Currency Policy), Bangkok Post (Trade Negotiations)
Energy and Environmental Initiatives
The cabinet approved tax incentives for high-efficiency machinery and residential solar rooftop systems that will be in effect until the last day of 2028. Individuals and companies will be allowed to deduct 1.5 times expenses for 5-star efficiency equipment, and homeowners will get personal income tax exemptions capped at 200,000 baht per taxpayer for solar installations. Thailand officially committed to hitting net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 at COP30; their target is to reduce emissions by almost half by 2035. The Department of Mineral Fuels is expected to announce the winners of the 25th onshore petroleum auction in December after bidding for nine exploration blocks of more than 33,000 square kilometers. Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon also reconfirmed plans continue for a carbon capture system worth 540 billion baht to store 8 million tonnes of CO₂ at the Arthit gas block by 2028.
Read more: Thai Enquirer (Tax Incentives), Kasikorn Research (Net Zero Goals), Bangkok Post (Petroleum Auction)
Legal and Regulatory Action
The Securities and Exchange Commission blocked a claimed 44,382 mule accounts and closed what it says were 3,134 scam-related accounts so far this year. It says their actions prevented illegal activities worth more than 200 million baht, but it isn’t clear how they arrived at that number. Police arrested more than 300 suspects in a crackdown on mule accounts and tech crimes from November 18-26. They said that they had received more than a million online fraud complaints since 2022 with total reported losses in excess of 100 billion baht. An arrest warrant was issued for Anne Jakapong Jakrajutatip, the Miss Universe co-owner, after she failed to appear for a verdict hearing in a 30-million-baht fraud case on November 25. The Revenue Department continues to investigate former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s assets as it tries to recover a tax debt of 17.6 billion baht related to Shin Corp share sales. Bankruptcy proceedings are possible if the assets they can get their hands on end up being insufficient to cover the bill.
Read more: Bangkok Post (SEC Enforcement), Bangkok Post (Police Crackdown), Thai Enquirer (Jakrajutatip Warrant), Bangkok Post (Thaksin Investigation)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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