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Headlines:
Lam Locks in Five More Years
Markets Rally on Stability
Tariffs Fail to Dent Growth
AI Rules Target Startups
Investment Rules Loosen
Vinatex Thrives, the Sector Struggles
Tourism Data Gets Smart
Projects in Limbo Pile Up
Korea, China Compete for Factories
Quality Standards Reform Exports
Supply Chains Digitize Fast
Courts Split on Press Freedom
Lam Locks in Five More Years
Former police chief To Lam has just been granted another five years at the helm, pushing reforms that would make a corporate downsizer blush. The Party rubber-stamped his plan to cut the number of ministries from 30 to 22 and drop 147,000 government jobs while shrinking 63 provinces down to 34. His bid to hold both party chief and president roles is reflective of Xi Jinping’s playbook next door - a power consolidation that comes alongside an anti-corruption campaign that been running hot since 2021.
Read more: Khmer Times (Leadership succession), Vietnam News Agency (Congress preparation), AFP (Reform details), Manila Times (Anti-corruption context)
Markets Rally on Stability
Markets opened up 1% the moment traders learned To Lam would keep his job. Foreign investors - who’d been treading toward the exits - suddenly found Vietnamese stocks worth buying again. The rally isn’t likely only about Lam’s vision for Vietnam but about not having to recalibrate spreadsheets to account for a new boss. In a (global?) market starved for predictability, political continuity trades at a premium.
Read more: DevDiscourse (Investor flow details), Modern Diplomacy (Leadership transition impact), Vietnam News(Stock performance details)
Tariffs Fail to Dent Growth
Vietnam’s economy is closing the year at a 7.7% clip despite Washington slapping tariffs of up to 46% on Vietnamese goods. Exports were up 17% and the punishment somehow produced a trade surplus north of $20 billion. Manufacturing climbed nearly 11%, retail sales grew 12%, and tourism revenue is running at 120% of pre-COVID levels. UOB expects to see growth easing to 7% next year as base effects kick in, but for an economy supposedly reeling from tariffs, these are champagne problems.
Read more: UOB Economics (2025 growth forecast), The Investor (Trade surplus insight), Fibre2Fashion (Export trend analysis)
AI Rules Target Startups
Come March, Vietnam’s AI startups are going to get a regulatory wake-up. A four-tier risk system that’s coming into play will require pre-market approval for “high-risk” applications in finance, healthcare, and education - exactly where local startups have been trying to carve out their niche. The government has dangled a few carrots like a National AI Development Fund and a regulatory sandboxe, but the compliance burden does seems bit like a filter that’s been designed to favor deep pockets. Smaller players who rode pandemic optimism into AI might find that getting approvals and required local partnerships costs more than their seed funding can cover.
Read more: China Briefing (Risk classification details), Vietnam Briefing (Governance fund insights)
Investment Rules Loosen
The National Assembly has rewritten the rules for foreign investors and the changes (coming into play in March) look a lot like liberalization. Thirty-eight business lines will no longer need licenses and the approval maze is going to shrink down to 20 project categories. Foreign firms will be able to set up shop before getting their paperwork blessed - the old sequence of permits-first, business-later is going to get turned on its head. Approval authority will be streamlined in three levels. Good news to see upfront gatekeeping being adjusted into post-inspection compliance.
Read more: Vietnam Briefing
Vinatex Thrives, the Sector Struggles
State-owned Vinatex was able to see its way to a VND1.35 trillion in profit - almost 50% above target and its second-best showing in three decades - even as the broader textile sector is bracing for a $2 billion revenue shortfall next year. The disconnect: Vinatex’s profits jumped more than 60% and worker incomes grew a tenth, but the industry missed its $48 billion export target. The uncomfortable question is whether Vinatex thriving because it cracked a code others might be able to copy, or because it is taking up market share from smaller players that are being squeezed out?
Read more: OANANews (2030 industry projection), VNEconomy (Export market breakdown), Vietnam News (Profit performance details)
Tourism Data Gets Smart
Vietnam’s AI tourism platform switched on December 15th, the moment that its 20 millionth visitor touched down. The platform activates infrastructure that has been waiting, including QR codes at heritage sites, databases of licensed operators, and AI-generated itineraries. While regional rivals let tourist data leave with the visitors, Vietnam plans to collect the digital fingerprints of every temple visit and beach selfie.
Read more: TNGlobal (Payment tech details), VnExpress (Visitor growth stats), Travel And Tour World (AI tourism platform)
Projects in Limbo Pile Up
Vietnam launched 234 construction projects worth $137 billion this year, but nearly 3,000 others worth $235 billion are sitting frozen. Ho Chi Minh City plans to ban gasoline motorcycles from downtown by 2028, a chance that will affect 9.2 million daily trips in a city where more than 98% of businesses are SMEs. Long Thanh Airport welcomed its first technical flight, but with project funding concentrated in a handful of large conglomerates, execution capacity is still running behind ambition.
Read more: VN Economy (Railway timeline details), VnExpress (Motorbike emissions plan), VietnamNet (Massive investment overview)
Korea, China Compete for Factories
Korea’s LS Group says that it will drop $17.6 million on a rare earth magnet plant in Ho Chi Minh City, and China’s Chery is committing up to $800 million for Southeast Asia’s largest car factory in a project expected to produce 200,000 vehicles a year. The contrast is indicative of where Vietnam sits in the supply chain as Korea wants to lock down upstream materials for next-gen tech, and China is staking a claim to downstream manufacturing scale. The rivalry has turned into a bidding war for Vietnamese industrial real estate, and Hanoi isn’t picking sides - it is raising rents.
Read more: Reccessary (Magnet supply investment), Nikkei Asia (Chery factory expansion)
Quality Standards Reform Exports
Fruit and vegetable exports came to $8.5 billion this year after Chinese quality crackdowns resulted in a 35% nosedive that Vietnamese producers were able to survive by raising their quality to meet the tougher standards. The recovery arc - from $1.1 billion over five bad months to $1.07 billion in September alone - comes at the same time as a million-hectare low-emission rice project and $40 million that’s been allocated to Ag from the FAO. Durian is getting a traceability pilot as shipments to China are getting close to $5 billion.
Read more: OANANews (Climate-smart agriculture), Vietnam News (Export market rebound), Vietnam Insider(Traceability pilot program)
Supply Chains Digitize Fast
Companies are reconfiguring their supply chains as geopolitical tensions and carbon rules turn yesterday’s efficiencies into tomorrow’s liabilities. Concentrated networks that used to hum along just fine are quickly looking like they might be single points of failure. The logistics industry wants end-to-end integrated digital systems by 2026 and customs reforms coming next year will bring documentation into the digital age. Trade officials have been preaching about early risk detection and transparency, but it’s easier said than done when entire operations depend on suppliers who consider their supplier lists a state secret.
Read more: Vietnam News
Courts Split on Press Freedom
A Berlin court tossed VinFast’s defamation case against journalist Le Trung Khoa on December 22 and ordered the carmaker to pay costs. Back home, prosecutors indicted Khoa under Article 117 for allegedly using AI to defame the government - a charge that carries a penalty of up to 20 years in the slammer. Civil harassment in Western courts along with criminal prosecution in Vietnamese ones is making press criticism a two-front legal war. Press freedom groups are calling it transnational repression.
Read more: Asia Times
That’s it for this week!
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