Thailand 20251226
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Border War Grinds On
Baht Breaks Exporters
War Creates Its Own Reality
Article 112 Likely to Decide February Result
Virtual Banks Target 19 Million Customers
Property Debt Hits Six Trillion
Phuket Land Scam
Export Boom Turns Bust
China Tension Tourism
Disaster Fund Races Climate
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Border War Grinds On
Three weeks of border clashes have killed more than 80 people and displaced close to a million as Thailand’s F-16s drop bombs near Phnom Sampov. Thai strikes hit homes, schools, medical centers, and temples while diplomats shuttle between capitals promising dialogue that hasn’t stopped the shooting. Cambodia wants talks moved to Kuala Lumpur for safety. The US-China-Malaysia truce keeps failing. ASEAN foreign ministers’ Monday meeting produced the usual promises about being “open to dialogue”, but the lead-slinging continues.
Read more: News.az (Cambodia’s accusations), Bangkok Post (Defense budget increase), Khaosod English (Air strike confirmation), KDH News (Casualty details)
Baht Breaks Exporters
The baht’s rise to 31 per dollar - a 4.5-year high driven by gold at $4,500 an ounce - is crushing exporters. The currency trades 65 billion baht daily, a value far bigger than trading on the stock exchange. Proposed fixes like taxing online gold trading or allowing dollar-denominated accounts require choosing who is going to suffer: traders, exporters, or the fiction that Thailand controls its own policy when global gold price movements can override years of planning. The Thai National Shippers’ Council is saying this is an emergency, but every solution will require the government to pick winners and losers.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Capital inflow impact), Bangkok Post (Currency forecast), Nation Thailand (Tourism sector effects), Bangkok Post (Gold trade controls)
War Creates Its Own Reality
A Hindu statue stood somewhere near the border until Thai forces destroyed it this week. Cambodia says the statue was 100 meters inside their territory; Thailand claims Cambodian troops erected it on disputed land. Thai military photos that were supposed to show recaptured positions turned out to be AI-generated images with telltale mistakes. Thailand’s government has so far rejected a full ceasefire, and is trying to deflect attention as it complains about the cybercrime syndicates it says Cambodia harbors. A petition is circulating to ask Washington to stop Thailand’s use of American weapons based on alleged Thai human rights violations.
Read more: Hindustan Times (Statue demolition controversy), Bangkok Post (International backlash), Yahoo (AI-generated photos), Kiripost (US weapons petition)
Article 112 Likely to Decide February Result
Thailand’s February 8 election looks like democracy. The Pheu Thai party will field 500 candidates, Bhumjaithai is proposing an end to military conscription, and the Democrats are finalizing their slate - but the outcome hinges on a single constitutional tripwire. Caretaker PM Anutin says Bhumjaithai won’t work with the People’s Party if it keeps pushing amendments to Section 112, the lèse-majesté law. People’s Party leader Natthaphong says his MPs won’t vote for Anutin again after feeling betrayed. Pheu Thai expects 200 seats and Bhumjaithai polls at about 10%, but who governs depends less on these numbers than on who is willing to promise to protect Article 112.
Read more: Reuters (PM candidate selection), Bangkok Post (Bhumjaithai strategy), Thai Enquirer (Political landscape), Bangkok Post (Coalition conditions)
Virtual Banks Target 19 Million Customers
Three consortiums got the nod to launch Thailand’s virtual banks by mid-next year. TrueMoney’s ACM Holding, Krungthai Bank with AIS and PTT’s retail arm, and SCB X teaming with Korea’s KakaoBank and China’s WeBank. They want to find up to 19 million people underserved by traditional lenders. Starting credit limits of 3,000-5,000 baht will test whether digital efficiency means actual financial inclusion or just reshuffles the same limited credit pool.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Property Debt Hits Six Trillion
Property and trading companies are sitting on 6 trillion baht in outstanding loans - half from financial institutions, half from bonds. Property sales got a temporary boost from loan-to-value relief, but residential unit transfers dropped almost a tenth for low-rise and more than a tenth for high-rise in the first half of this year. The central bank is working with the Finance Ministry on a credit guarantee plan for smaller businesses to take some pressure off. The worry is spreading beyond the big players who built too much during the good times and who now are walking a high wire as they try to service their obligations.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Phuket Land Scam
Phuket’s former deputy governor and several land officials face indictment for issuing title deeds on more than 13 rai of protected forest in 2011. The land was supposedly farmed since 1955, but investigators say it was dense forest on slopes too steep to legally give title for. The anti-corruption commission will ask prosecutors to revoke the deeds and send the case to the Attorney General. Prime coastal land rarely changes hands without someone bending the rules.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Export Boom Turns Bust
Thailand’s exports grew more than 12% through November but trade officials are now saying they expect a 3% contraction next year. The contradiction is about timing. Headline numbers are up 43% on a rise in gold exports alongside 38% growth in US shipments, but imports have risen even faster at nearly 18%, creating a $2.7 billion trade deficit that is more than double what was expected. Three issues coming together at the same time - a global slowdown, incoming US tariffs, and the baht’s 10% rise against the dollar - mean that this year’s boom might have been a last hurrah.
Read more: Bangkok Post (2026 export forecast), Bangkok Post (November trade data)
China Tension Tourism
Daily Chinese arrivals to Thailand doubled to 14,000-15,000 as Chinese tensions with Japan resulted in the cancellation of nearly 40% of China-Japan flights. Thailand’s Tourism mandarins are rushing to lock in gains from tourists avoiding Japan, but Thailand’s own border clashes with Cambodia have (unhelpfully) triggered travel warnings from foreign governments that are telling their citizens to avoid areas within 50-80 kilometers of the frontier. Despite the Chinese bump, foreign arrivals are down just over 7% from last year. Profiting from instability you didn’t create while manufacturing security risks of your own is a probably not a winning long-term strategy for Thailand.
Read more: Travel And Tour World (China-Japan diversion), News.com.au (Australian travel warnings), Travel And Tour World (Overall tourist arrivals)
Disaster Fund Races Climate
Hat Yai’s floods and March’s earthquake convinced Thailand’s insurance industry to set up a Natural Catastrophe Fund in the first half of next year, starting with a 50 billion baht commitment. The fund is expected to be fully funded by 2027. Hat Yai flood losses alone hit 16 billion baht in insured damage through mid-December. Financing will come from premiums, catastrophe bonds, and government-backed short-term bonds.
Read more: Bangkok Post
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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