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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Elections Condemned as Illegitimate Sham
International Community Split on Recognition
Sanctions Evasion Through Rebranding Exposed
Junta Controls Less Than Half the Country
Myitsone Dam Project Resumes Despite Protests
LNG Imports Restart After Four-Year Gap
Business Crackdown in Mon State
Resistance Fighters Switch Sides for Survival
Navy Gets US Engagement Despite Sanctions
Elections Condemned as Illegitimate Sham
The junta has started its first election since the 2021 coup in three phases starting December 28, 2025, with voting limited to 265 of 330 townships because armed resistance controls large swaths of the country. The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party is already claiming landslide victories, winning more than 80% of counted seats, even as voter turnout remained low despite coercion including threats, forced advance voting, and door-to-door harassment. The UN, EU, and Western governments continue to reject the elections as neither free nor fair, due to wide scale repression, arbitrary detentions under draconian election laws, and the banning of legitimate opposition parties including the dissolved National League for Democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned on politically-motivated charges, and has had no family contact for two years. Violence has escalated in advance of the polling - reports are of as many as 40 aerial bombardments in Sagaing, Magwe, and Mandalay regions.
Read more: The Print (India’s Balancing), Mizzima (Sham Poll), FIDH (Human Rights), CNN (Junta Claims), WION (USDP Victory), The Irrawaddy (Civilian Attacks), Mizzima (Christmas Bombing), Mizzima (Yangon Blast), The Irrawaddy(Resistance Attacks), OHCHR (UN Warning)
International Community Split on Recognition
Indian observers participate in the elections, including Army Commander Lt Gen Arun Kumar Sahni, though Delhi insists they attended in a personal capacity and continues to publicly say that elections should be “free, fair, and inclusive” with all stakeholders participating. Russia, China, and Vietnam also sent representatives, but ASEAN is divided with Malaysia as Chair showing concern about the lack of progress toward peace. The U.S., UK, EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand categorically rejected the process, with the UK Foreign Secretary calling for Suu Kyi’s immediate release and American officials maintaining the election is illegitimate.
Read more: The Wire (India Observers), Fulcrum (ASEAN Position), The Hindu (Rebel Reaction), Independent (UK Response)
Sanctions Evasion Through Rebranding Exposed
Justice For Myanmar and The Sentry released a policy brief on December 22 showing how the junta is getting around international sanctions by dissolving the State Administrative Council on July 31, 2025, and creating the State Security and Peace Commission led by essentially the same people. U.S. lobbying firms entered contracts to provide public affairs services for the junta within days of the rebranding, and the regime has been busy trying to manufacture a sense of legitimacy through the elections. The released policy brief calls on the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand to immediately place the new entity under existing sanctions and to expand network sanctions against the junta’s international enablers to prevent unknowing engagement with the rebranded regime.
Read more: Mizzima (JFM Brief), The Diplomat (U.S. Policy), Special Advisory Council (SAC-M Statement)
Junta Controls Less Than Half the Country
The election reached barely half of the country, with voting taking place in only 48 of 102 townships fully in Phase 1 and 45 of 100 townships in Phase 2. Resistance forces and ethnic armed organizations are in control of about a third of the territory. Only 30% of Sagaing Region, 40% of Tanintharyi, and 5% of Rakhine State voted.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Territorial Control), Borderlens (Rakhine Situation), Modern Ghana (Low Turnout)
Myitsone Dam Project Resumes Despite Protests
Anti-regime protest groups including Hmawhlae and Hsengtaung strike columns demonstrated against the junta’s restart of the Myitsone hydropower project on December 24. Phoe Kyaw, leader of the Hmawhlae Strike Column, said the project is an inappropriate exploitation of the country’s resources and asked citizens to come together against it. The project was previously suspended in 2011 after civil society organizations raised environmental concerns.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Protests), UCA News (Resource Exploitation)
LNG Imports Restart After Four-Year Gap
Myanmar restarted liquefied natural gas imports after more than four years, taking possession of a half-cargo shipment in November 2025 that is intended to support the Thanlyin and Thaketa power plants. The Dapeng Princess tanker sourced LNG from Malaysia’s Bintulu liquefaction terminal and arrived at the Thilawa floating storage unit in November. The operation is managed by CNTIC VPower Energy, a partnership between China National Technical Import and Export Corporation and VPower Group. The fate of any future shipments remains uncertain.
Read more: Energy News
Business Crackdown in Mon State
At least 15 business owners in Mon State were arrested by the junta’s Ministry of Planning and Finance as part of a crackdown on tax evasion and funding of anti-regime groups. The Internal Revenue Department has been running raids on fuel and food importers and gold dealers since November. The crackdown is part of efforts linked to junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s late 2023 push for full tax enforcement and improved scrutiny of financial contributions to resistance groups. Tax revenues have declined sharply since the coup due to public boycotts but have started to rise again with enforcement.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Resistance Fighters Switch Sides for Survival
Pro-democracy fighters from the People’s Defence Force are temporarily posting up with the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, a junta-aligned group, for food and money because of a lack of financial support. Many fighters who initially joined the PDF after the coup are reportedly switching sides to survive in conflict zones like Payathonzu, known for illegal drug trafficking and human smuggling.
Read more: South China Morning Post
Navy Gets US Engagement Despite Sanctions
The Navy frigate UMS Kyansitta finished up participation in the 2nd ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise held from December 9-13, 2025, in Indonesia, returning to Yangon on December 13. The exercise involved regional navies including those from Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States, providing training in maritime maneuvers, communication exercises, and damage control. Junta-controlled media is presenting the involvement as “successful cooperation” despite general international isolation and ongoing bans on U.S. military cooperation. Myanmar was able to participate in the exercises with the US due to a loophole in the way it was structured - broader defense ties with the U.S. and Europe remain frozen.
Read more: Mizzima
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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