Myanmar 20240521: Resistance, Instability, Perseverance

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

May 21, 2024

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Here is your Mekong Memo this week for Myanmar. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated and help support us to continue keeping you informed.

Headlines:

An Unfinished Nation's Descent into Turmoil

Resistance a New Chapter for Governance

China Bummed as Russia Partners for Dawei Port

UN’s New Envoy Faces Uphill Battle

Biometric Smart Card Requirement Causes Chaos

Chinese Workers Resume Mine Operations

NZ Proposed as Venue for War Crimes Tribunal

Kyat Plummets Past 4,000/ Dollar

Supporting Local Governance: A New Approach

Thai Diplomat Urges Rethink on Myanmar

Opium Boom Fuels Global Drug Crisis

Internet Shutdowns Facilitate Repression

ASSK Moved to House Arrest at Military Facility

Rohingya Crisis: Persecution and Displacement

Junta's Waning Control

Cinema as a Chronicle of Culture

An Unfinished Nation's Descent into Turmoil

Myanmar, described by historian Thant Myint-U as an "unfinished nation," has long struggled between Burmese nationalism and ethnic minority rights. The military's fifty-year rule has devastated the nation socially and economically. The 2021 coup sparked a massive Civil Disobedience Movement, with forty percent of civil servants refusing to work for the regime. Talks with ethnic groups have largely come to a stop, which does nothing to improve the situation. The military and insurgents profit from drug trafficking, while China and Russia's support shields Myanmar internationally. The military junta seems set to retain power at any cost.

Resistance a New Chapter for Governance

The strong resistance following the 2021 coup has surprised many, with Myanmar's youth putting up a fierce fight. International dialogue, especially from ASEAN, is necessary for forming a stable, pluralistic future for the fractured country. Potential outcomes include a confederation of autonomous regions, but that will certainly require some significant compromises.

China Bummed as Russia Partners for Dawei Port

Myanmar has chosen Russia to develop the Dawei deep seaport, sidelining China, which had also shown interest. This move to strengthen Myanmar's ties with Moscow, countering Chinese influence comes at a time of increasing stress. China now feels its projects in Kyaukphyu may be threatened. The Dawei Port will handle 10 million tonnes of cargo and refine 100,000 barrels of oil daily.

UN’s New Envoy Faces Uphill Battle

Julie Bishop, the new UN Special Envoy on Myanmar, is going to have to navigate past mediation failures by focusing on subnational conflicts and ethnic relationships rather than high-level negotiations with the junta. Effective strategies will include building trust through initial external meetings, enhancing local humanitarian aid, and developing a unique role distinct from regional leaders. Success will hinge on bypassing junta-led peace processes, avoiding premature ceasefire pushes, and convincing ASEAN and China to better support broader democratic movements.

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