Myanmar 20240806: Abysmal, Acrimonious, Adroit
Myanmar 20240806: Abysmal, Acrimonious, Adroit
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Headlines:
Emergency Rule: The Never-Ending Story
China Plays Kingmaker in Election Charade
Junta Abandons Nationwide Election Plans
Myanmar Remains in Legal Isolation
Junta Cracks Down on Exporters Amid Forex Crisis
India's Myanmar Policy Under Fire
Gas Prices Soar With Import Restrictions
Junta Loses Lashio Stronghold
Internet Controls Expose Citizens to Cyber Threats
Resistance Seizes Chinese-Backed Ventures
Junta Targets Thai Worker Remittances
Emergency Rule: The Never-Ending Story
In a plot twist that you probably didn’t see coming, the military junta has extended its state of emergency for the sixth time. Citing the ever-convenient excuse of "terrorist acts" by opposition groups, the regime insists this extension is necessary for the completion of a population census and to make sure that all ballots are valid in the upcoming 2025 elections.
Read more: Al Jazeera (Election Delay), The Diplomat (Emergency Extension)
China Plays Kingmaker in Election Charade
As the junta fumbles towards its electoral ambitions, China has stepped into the role of diplomatic facilitator. Beijing's recent tête-à-tête with pro-junta political parties is demonstrative of its commitment to keeping Myanmar's military leadership in its good graces. This maneuvering is classic Chinese focus on regional stability and influence, seemingly undeterred by international skepticism surrounding the junta's election plans.
Read more: The Diplomat
Junta Abandons Nationwide Election Plans
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has announced a shift in election plans, acknowledging the impossibility of simultaneous nationwide polls due to the ongoing war. The regime now says that it intends to hold elections first in areas under its control, a territory that continues to shrink. With only about 130 townships under its administration, the junta's electoral map is a fragmented picture of its diminishing influence.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Myanmar Remains in Legal Isolation
Despite widespread atrocities since Myanmar's 2021 coup, international legal actions remain muted, at best, completely absent, at worst. Difficulties in categorizing the conflict and geopolitical factors are holding back the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice from properly addressing crimes committed by the junta. Unlike quick actions taken in Ukraine and Palestine, Myanmar remains without viable prospects for international legal redress, a symptom of its longstanding isolation on the world stage.
Read more: East Asia Forum
Junta Cracks Down on Exporters Amid Forex Crisis
More than a hundred exporters face prison as the junta has cancelled licenses for a failure to convert US dollar earnings into kyat. The crackdown comes in the wake of a severe devaluation of the kyat, which dropped 13% just last month. Exporters are required to convert 65% of their foreign earnings at an unfavorable rate set by the junta-controlled Central Bank. The hardline forex rules have led to a black market resurgence and held back trade, further destabilizing the already crippled economy.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
India's Myanmar Policy Under Fire
Advocacy group Progressive Voice has accused India of complicity in the Myanmar junta's crimes, citing the provision of weapons, equipment, and economic assistance. The report criticizes India for supporting the junta's violence against civilians through arms deals and infrastructure projects, while at the same time deporting refugees back to Myanmar. The group is calling on India to sever ties with the junta, align its business practices with international human rights principles, and support democratic efforts in Myanmar.
Read more: Mizzima
Gas Prices Soar With Import Restrictions
Natural gas prices in have more than tripled since the coup, forcing many families to switch to charcoal due to pricing and shortages. The junta's restrictive import licensing, which favors individuals close to the regime, has created a near-monopoly in the market. The price of one "viss" of gas has grown from as little as 3,700 kyat to as much as 20,000 kyat. Limited import licenses and port monopolization are driving these price hikes, making the daily lives of Myanmar's residents worse.
Read more: RFA
Junta Loses Lashio Stronghold
The military regime has lost contact with commanders at the strategically vital Northeast Command in Lashio, suggesting its capture by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. This defeat is a big setback for the junta as resistance forces continue to gain ground. The loss of Lashio raises doubts about the regime's ability to maintain control over contested territories and threatens the junta's hold on other important regions and border crossings.
Read more: Winnipeg Free Press
Internet Controls Expose Citizens to Cyber Threats
The junta's crackdown on internet access has driven Myanmar's citizens to rely on virtual private networks (VPNs), many of which are free but potentially malicious. With major social media platforms and VPN services banned, users are dealing with increased vulnerability to phishing attacks and other cyber threats. Citizens with low digital literacy are particularly at risk.
Read more: CNA
Resistance Seizes Chinese-Backed Ventures
Resistance groups have seized two major Chinese-invested joint ventures: the Alpha Cement factory in Mandalay and the Tagaung Taung nickel mine in Sagaing. The junta's failure to protect these projects is a huge black eye. The shadow National Unity Government (NUG) has stepped in to oversee operations, saying that they are working to ensure safety and continuity. This development may prompt China to reassess its priorities in Myanmar, possibly opening the door to increased engagement between Beijing and the NUG.
Read more: RFA
Junta Targets Thai Worker Remittances
The junta has put in place a new rule requiring migrant workers in Thailand to remit a quarter of their income through official channels in order to renew their work permits. Effective August 1, workers in Thailand must transfer 6,000 baht (25% of their three-month salary) to Myanmar bank accounts to qualify for permit renewal. Critics are saying that the policy, driven by the junta's foreign currency shortage, may push more workers into undocumented status, but the junta is cornered as it works desperately to secure hard currency.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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