Myanmar 20240820: Crepuscular, Fossilized, Sempiternal
Myanmar 20240820: Crepuscular, Fossilized, Sempiternal
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Headlines:
US Myanmar Strategy Due for Overhaul
Junta Chief Shores Up Inner Circle
Myanmar Plays China Card with Finesse
Serge Pun's Empire Crumbles Under Legal Assault
Fuel Crisis Deepens Despite Cash Infusion
ASSK's Mansion Fails to Entice Buyers, Again
Than Shwe Courts Chinese Favor
Hair Trade Defies Economic Gravity
Business Exodus Signals Economic Freefall
Power Plants Go Dark, Leaving Yangon in the Lurch
Junta Scions Corner EV Market
UN Decries Escalating Violence
US Myanmar Strategy Due for Overhaul
As Washington gears up for a changing of the guard, policy wonks are calling for a fresh take on Myanmar. The current hands-off approach, leaning heavily on ASEAN to sort out the mess, is looking more like a strategic misstep than a masterstroke. With Uncle Sam's influence waning and the situation on the ground deteriorating, there's a growing chorus for more direct engagement. The next administration might find itself inheriting not just a foreign policy challenge, but a full-blown crisis if the current trajectory holds.
Read more: The Diplomat
Junta Chief Shores Up Inner Circle
In a move that smacks of paranoia, Min Aung Hlaing has bumped three of his cronies up the military ladder. Aung Lin Dwe, Nyo Saw, and Ye Win Oo now sport general's stars, a promotion that comes amid whispers of discontent and even coup rumblings within the ranks. It's a classic play from the dictator's handbook: surround yourself with loyalists when the ground starts to shake. As the junta's grip on power looks increasingly like a white-knuckle affair, these promotions might be less about rewarding merit and more about survival.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Myanmar Plays China Card with Finesse
Contrary to post-coup predictions, Myanmar hasn't become Beijing's puppet state. Instead, the junta's been playing a balancing act, deepening ties with China while maintaining an unexpected degree of autonomy. This diplomatic dance has allowed Myanmar to navigate the waters of international isolation without completely tethering itself to China's ambitions.
Read more: South China Morning Post
Serge Pun's Empire Crumbles Under Legal Assault
Once hailed as Myanmar's Mr. Clean, Serge Pun now finds himself in the junta's crosshairs. The former Yoma Strategic Holdings chief is facing a barrage of money laundering charges, with the legal net widening to snare top brass at Yoma Bank too. The allegations run the gamut from misusing public funds to making investments that supposedly undermine national interests. As Pun steps down from over 100 companies, it's a reminder that in Myanmar's current climate, even the most seemingly untouchable business figures can find themselves on shaky ground.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Fuel Crisis Deepens Despite Cash Infusion
The junta-controlled central bank's $100 million band-aid for fuel importers is looking more like a drop in the ocean. With importers estimating it'll barely cover a month's supply, the move seems more like kicking the can down the road than a real solution. The kyat continues its nosedive, turning fuel purchases into a Sisyphean task. As queues at Yangon's petrol stations stretch into the horizon, it's clear that this quick fix is doing little to ease the pain at the pumps.
Read more: Hürriyet Daily News (Government Plan), The Irrawaddy (Importer Concerns)
ASSK's Mansion Fails to Entice Buyers, Again
Aung San Suu Kyi's historic lakeside mansion has once again failed to find a buyer. The court-mandated minimum price tag of $140 million seems to have scared off even the most deep-pocketed investors, despite the property's obvious historical significance. It's a surreal scenario: a piece of national heritage up for grabs, with no takers in sight. The failed auction stands as a metaphor for Myanmar's uncertain future, where even the most prized assets struggle to find their worth.
Read more: Yahoo News (Auction Details), Times of India (Context and History)
Than Shwe Courts Chinese Favor
The old guard isn't ready to bow out just yet. Former strongman Than Shwe has been spotted schmoozing with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in what looks like a bid to keep Beijing's support flowing. With anti-junta forces making headway in northern Shan State, the talks centered on stability and border security – code for "help us keep our grip on power." China's continued backing of the junta's sovereignty claims and election fantasies shows that Beijing's still got skin in the game, even as Myanmar's internal strife deepens.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Hair Trade Defies Economic Gravity
While much of Myanmar's economy is on life support, Pyawbwe Township's hair trade is still showing signs of life. The industry continues to export processed locks globally, but it's not all smooth sailing. The kyat's freefall is driving up costs, and Chinese know-how and investments are propping up local factories. It's a rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape, but the question is whether this niche industry can maintain its luster as the rest of the economy continues to unravel.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Business Exodus Signals Economic Freefall
Since the generals seized power in 2021, over 25,000 businesses have thrown in the towel. It's an exodus driven by a storm of economic woes: a plummeting kyat, skyrocketing import costs, and the junta's ham-fisted policies like forced currency conversion. Business owners are voting with their feet, reporting a lack of economic opportunities and ever-growing financial pressures with no end in sight. As the private sector continues to hemorrhage, it's painting a grim picture of the country’s economic future.
Read more: Myanmar Now
Power Plants Go Dark, Leaving Yangon in the Lurch
Yangon's already flickering lights are dimming further as key gas-fired power plants in Myingyan Township go offline. Security concerns and operational hurdles have knocked nearly 5,000 megawatt hours off the grid, making the chronic blackouts that have plagued the country since the coup even worse. With monsoon season traditionally a time of rising power demand, the situation is looking increasingly dire. It's not just an inconvenience; it's a symptom of the junta's inability to keep even the basics running.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Junta Scions Corner EV Market
Min Aung Hlaing's offspring are making a power play in Myanmar's nascent electric vehicle market. Aung Pyae Sone and Khin Thiri Thet Mon's companies are enjoying a smorgasbord of perks – tax breaks, cushy import conditions, you name it. Backed by a media blitz, they're amassing wealth while the rest of the country battles with power cuts and economic turmoil. Apparently, it's not what you know, but who you're related to that counts.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
UN Decries Escalating Violence
The UN has issued a scathing indictment of Myanmar's military, accusing them of ramping up violence and committing war crimes against civilians, children included. Their investigative team has painted a grim picture of brutality in the conflict between the military and ethnic groups. The call for international intervention comes with a stern reminder of the obligations under international law – a reminder that seems to repeatedly fall on deaf ears as the violence continues unabated.
Read more: VOA News (War Crimes), Myanmar Now (Escalation)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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