Myanmar 20240903: Gripping, Urgent, Fraught
Myanmar 20240903: Gripping, Urgent, Fraught
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar. It is very “China heavy”this week - it seems as though everyone has been looking at the situation through the China lens.
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Headlines:
Census Fuels Conscription Fears
Border Closures Pressure Ethnic Armies
Beijing Extends $3B Lifeline
China’s Balancing Act in Civil War
Beijing Turns Up the Heat
Chinese Support for Junta May Backfire
TNLA Warned to Halt Hostilities
Ethnic Group Seeks Justice in the Philippines
Brain Drain Threatens Innovation
Junta Weaponizes Hunger with Food Aid Blockade
Harsh Sentences for Journalists
Turnell Reflects on Economic Collapse
Mass Arrests of Myanmar Workers in Thailand
Desperate Recruitment Tactics Expose Weakness
Desperation Drives Organ Trade
Census Fuels Conscription Fears
The military is collecting personal data from industrial workers ahead of an October census, increasing concerns about forced conscription. The collection precedes controversial 2025 elections, which many view as illegitimate. The shadow government says that it is expecting new offensives as the junta attempts to consolidate control.
Read more: AP News (Election Preparation), RFA (Worker Data Collection)
Border Closures Pressure Ethnic Armies
China has shut several important crossings between China and Myanmar in areas controlled by the UWSA and MNDAA, hoping to push these groups into peace talks with the junta. The closures follow concerns over weapons flow and China's interests in major infrastructure projects.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Peace Talk Pressure), Nation Thailand (Border Closures)
Beijing Extends $3B Lifeline
China has offered a $3 billion financial package to the cash-strapped regime facing severe economic decline. GDP has plummeted 20% since 2021, with inflation soaring past 30%. The aid could embolden military campaigns, though opposition warns future governments won't honor these debts.
Read more: Eurasia Review
China’s Balancing Act in Civil War
China remains the most influential foreign player in the Myanmar conflict, juggling its interests as battles rage on. While seeking stability for its investments, Beijing is seeing challenges from junta instability and rising resistance. China maintains economic ties with the regime but continues to try and hold back from overt support for any side.
Read more: Stimson Center
Beijing Turns Up the Heat
China is increasing pressure on Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) due to its failure to provide stability and security, particularly in regions critical to Chinese interests. Despite China's initial support post-coup, including military sales, Beijing has now adopted a more cautious posture, engaging with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and suggesting the formation of an interim government.
Read more: Lowy Institute
Chinese Support for Junta May Backfire
China’s recent high-level engagement with the junta, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit and promises of support, are demonstrative of Beijing’s strategic interests but risks backfiring. Despite China's calls for stability and cooperation, the junta’s desperation for legitimacy and military support still shows a deep-rooted distrust between Myanmar’s military and Beijing.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Risk of Backfire), Asia News Network (Wang Yi Visit)
TNLA Warned to Halt Hostilities
China has issued a stern warning to the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), demanding an immediate end to their conflict with Myanmar's military. The warning, delivered through China's Shweli National Security Committee, says that the TNLA will be held responsible for any consequences if fighting continues.
Read more: Nation Thailand
Ethnic Group Seeks Justice in the Philippines
A Myanmar ethnic Chin human rights group is challenging the junta by trying to bring war crimes charges against its leaders in the Philippines. Despite a rejection from the Philippine Department of Justice, the group argues that the principle of universal jurisdiction obliges the country to take action. This effort is part of an international push to hold Myanmar's military accountable, including cases at the International Criminal Court and other global judicial bodies.
Read more: Radio Free Asia
Brain Drain Threatens Innovation
The coup has led to a big Myanmar brain drain, with thousands of students, scholars, and professionals fleeing the country. The academic environment, once expectantly being set for progress under democratic reforms, has been devastated by the junta's repression, forcing many to abandon their careers and find safety and opportunity abroad. This mass exodus of talent is doing tremendous damage to Myanmar's long-term potential for academic and economic recovery.
Read more: The Diplomat
Junta Weaponizes Hunger with Food Aid Blockade
The junta is reportedly using hunger as a weapon by blocking food aid to civilians in Rakhine state. The junta has imposed road and waterway blockades, preventing aid from reaching hundreds of thousands of displaced people, many of whom are Rohingya. Aid workers describe the situation as a deliberate strategy to weaken support for rebel groups, leaving millions at risk of starvation and death.
Read more: CNN
Harsh Sentences for Journalists
A military court has sentenced Myo Myint Oo, a journalist from Dawei Watch, to life in prison, and his colleague Aung San Oo to 20 years, under the country's Counterterrorism Law. Their harsh sentences are among the most severe since the 2021 coup.
Read more: AP News
Turnell Reflects on Economic Collapse
Australian economist Sean Turnell, who was imprisoned by Myanmar's military for 650 days following the 2021 coup, has released a new book titled "Best Laid Plans." The book details his efforts as an economic advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi's government to rebuild Myanmar's economy before the coup. Turnell's reflections show how the military's seizure of power has derailed the country’s fragile progress toward democracy and plunged it into economic ruin and civil war.
Read more: The Diplomat
Mass Arrests of Myanmar Workers in Thailand
In a sweeping operation over the past 85 days, Thai authorities have arrested 177,804 Myanmar workers as part of a 120-day campaign to crack down on illegal immigration. The crackdown has raised humanitarian worries, especially regarding the treatment of detained workers and the potential for increased tensions between Thailand and Myanmar.
Read more: Nation Thailand
Desperate Recruitment Tactics Expose Weakness
The regime is resorting to desperate measures to replenish its dwindling ranks amid heavy casualties, defections, and mounting resistance. The junta has reactivated conscription laws, recalled veterans to active duty, and formed local "people’s security" teams. Despite these actions, the junta's ability to sustain its military operations remains in serious doubt.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Desperation Drives Organ Trade
Impoverished citizens are turning to social media to sell their kidneys in a last-ditch effort to survive. A year-long investigation reveals that people, desperate due to rampant poverty and unemployment, are illegally selling organs to wealthy buyers in countries like India. Despite the risks and legal barriers, the organ trade remains, fueled by despair in a nation ravaged by civil war and economic decline.
Read more: CNN
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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