Myanmar 20240910: Austere, Unconventional, Arduous
Myanmar 20240910: Austere, Unconventional, Arduous
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar. It is very “China heavy”this week - it seems as though everyone has been looking at the situation through the China lens.
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Headlines:
Mandalay's Fate Hangs in Balance
Border Trade with China and Thailand Crumbles
UN Investigators Report Widespread Atrocities
Photojournalist Marks Year Behind Bars
Naval Base Falls to Arakan Army
Security Ties with China Strengthen
Shan State's Complex Power Struggle
Overseas Workers Face Remittance Rule
UN Security Council Under Fire
Junta Pressured by Chinese-Backed Alliance
Conflict Expert Joins Stimson Center
Mandalay's Fate Hangs in Balance
Resistance forces have surrounded Mandalay, launching attacks on several important military positions. The city's capture is being seen as pivotal for the revolution's progress. Military analysts stress that taking Pyin Oo Lwin, a garrison town 74 km to the east, will be necessary before Mandalay can fall. Ongoing battles around both locations leave the hub's future uncertain, but this is a story to watch.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Border Trade with China and Thailand Crumbles
Myanmar’s border trade with China and Thailand has collapsed as ethnic armed groups, opposed to the military regime, now control routes accounting for 91% of overland trade with China. The war has crippled key supply chains, with border regions turning from trade into conflict zones. This disruption has severely impacted Myanmar’s economy, which relies heavily on overland trade.
Read more: The Diplomat
UN Investigators Report Widespread Atrocities
The UN's Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar has reported widespread atrocities, including targeted attacks on civilians, torture, and sexual violence. Civilians, especially Rohingya in Rakhine State, are increasingly caught in the crossfire between the military and ethnic armed groups. Reports detail horrific crimes, including a drone attack that killed dozens of Rohingya civilians. More than 3 million people have been displaced since the 2021 coup, with investigators calling for accountability to prevent further crimes.
Read more: UN News
Photojournalist Marks Year Behind Bars
Sai Zaw Thaike of Myanmar Now has completed the first year of a 20-year sentence for covering Cyclone Mocha's aftermath. Charged with sedition and high treason, he was sentenced without trial. His case is representative of a harsh media crackdown, with at least 61 reporters detained since 2021. Despite the ordeal, Sai Zaw reportedly remains in good health at Insein Prison.
Read more: Myanmar Now
Naval Base Falls to Arakan Army
An important military installation in Rakhine State has been captured after a month-long offensive. The Arakan Army claims over 400 junta casualties in the takeover of the Central Naval Diving and Salvage Depot. This victory deals a major blow to the regime's regional presence and is expected to both raise tensions and demoralize junta forces in the region.
Read more: RFA
Security Ties with China Strengthen
Home Affairs Minister, Lieutenant-General Yar Pyae is attending the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in China's Jiangsu Province. Beijing has prioritized securing its investments through enhanced border security and joint efforts against online scams. Recent years have seen increased financial aid and law enforcement collaboration between the two nations, including the extradition of cybercrime suspects.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Shan State's Complex Power Struggle
The conflict in Myanmar’s Shan State is far from a straightforward liberation effort. The Brotherhood Alliance's recent victories in Shan State are showing a tangled web of interests. Despite seizing key areas, tensions remain between local populations and controlling forces. Civilians face forced conscription, taxation, and displacement. The region's diverse ethnic makeup, historical alliances, and China's influence are further complicating prospects for resolution.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Overseas Workers Face Remittance Rule
A new mandate requires overseas workers to transfer 25% of their salaries through official channels or risk travel restrictions and passport renewal denials. More than 135 labor agencies have been suspended for non-compliance, with others facing fines. The regulation is intended to tighten control over remittances as heightened fears of military conscription remain among young men looking for a chance to leave the country.
Read more: Mizzima
UN Security Council Under Fire
Critics are slamming the UN Security Council's inaction on escalating violence and atrocities, particularly against the Rohingya population. Despite warnings from senior officials, meaningful action so far remains elusive. More than 327,000 Rohingya have been displaced, with several villages completely destroyed. Observers argue that regional paralysis undermines the Council's credibility and are calling for international intervention.
Read more: Human Rights Watch
Junta Pressured by Chinese-Backed Alliance
The military government is facing ever-greater challenges from the Brotherhood Alliance, a Chinese-backed coalition of ethnic armed groups. Recent rocket attacks near Mandalay's Central Region Command are showing the resilience and capacity of the Alliance to continue their efforts. The Alliance's string of victories has disrupted junta control in several important areas, reportedly as a result of growing external influence in the power struggle.
Read more: The Economist
Conflict Expert Joins Stimson Center
Steve Ross has been appointed Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, in support of its focus on regional issues. Ross will lead a project examining the crisis in Rakhine State, its impact on displaced populations, and geopolitical consequences for Bangladesh. His expertise in conflict prevention and governance will contribute to research on peace, security, and human rights in the Indo-Pacific.
Read more: Stimson Center
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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