Myanmar 20240924: Opaque, Untenable, Quixotic
Myanmar 20240924: Opaque, Untenable, Quixotic
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
India in Surprise Invitation to Anti-Junta Forces
China’s Trade Ambitions Stalled by War
Junta's Execution Plans for Activists
Typhoon Triggers Surge in Commodity Prices
Regime Deepens Lawlessness As Defeats Mount
Thailand Seeks Cooperation to Restore Highway
Junta Scrambles for BRICS Membership
Junta Failures Amplified by Natural Disasters
Tycoon Reportedly Facilitating Junta Arms Deals
Junta Advances Military Tech Ties with China
Gen Z Rebels Risk Lives for Freedom
Predatory Moneylenders Exploit the Poor
Myanmar Condo Buyers in Thailand Surge
India in Surprise Invitation to Anti-Junta Forces
India has extended an unprecedented invitation to Myanmar's anti-junta forces for talks, a notable shift in its stance on the conflict. Sources indicate that India is looking into exploring diplomatic channels with opposition groups, a departure from its previous neutral approach. The shift in India’s posture is indicative of India's interest in stabilizing Myanmar and securing its northeastern borders, which have been most heavily affected by the conflict.
Read more: Bangkok Post
China’s Trade Ambitions Stalled by War
China’s multimillion-dollar trade corridor through Myanmar hasn’t panned out the way anyone had hoped. Once a thriving route between the countries, the border now resembles a militarized zone, cutting through villages and disrupting commerce. China’s efforts to broker peace between Myanmar's military and ethnic rebels have failed, stalling Beijing’s plan to connect its southwest to the Indian Ocean. The conflict has devastated trade, impacted investments, and left China with the headache of instability threatening its regional ambitions.
Read more: BBC
Junta's Execution Plans for Activists
The junta reportedly plans to execute five democracy activists, raising alarms among rights groups. Indications are that the activists, sentenced in closed-door trials, are to be executed as soon as today (Tuesday). Rights groups have condemned the regime for using capital punishment as a tool to suppress dissent. The junta has apparently already executed two people, including Chan Myae Thu, the first woman, while international calls for sanctions and stronger pressure continue to grow, especially from Australia.
Read more: RFA (Executions), VOA (ASEAN Response), Irrawaddy (Public Sentiment), ABC (First Woman Executed)
Typhoon Triggers Surge in Commodity Prices
Floods and landslides from Typhoon Yagi have disrupted Myanmar's vegetable supply, causing a spike in prices. Damage to roads and bridges has compounded transport issues, with some areas relying on old stock for vegetables. In Yangon, cabbage now sells for 7,000-10,000 Kyats, tomatoes for 6,000 Kyats per viss (about 1.6 kg/ 3.6 pounds), and potatoes for 8,000 Kyats per viss. Prices are expected to rise further as flooding has impacted as many as 84 townships.
Read more: Mizzima
Regime Deepens Lawlessness As Defeats Mount
Facing battlefield losses and dwindling resources, the military regime has escalated its predatory behavior. War crimes, including civilian bombings, executions, and mass arrests, have grown in number as the junta struggles to maintain control. Even the regime's own troops are not spared, subjected to extortion through military-owned businesses. With opposition forces seizing territory and resources, including jade mines and oil fields, the military's desperation has led to increased violence and economic exploitation, further destabilizing the country.
Read more: Eurasia Review
Thailand Seeks Cooperation to Restore Highway
Thailand is pushing for talks with Myanmar’s warring factions to repair the damaged Asian Highway 1 (AH1), which is a backbone of regional trade. Backed by ASEAN and India, Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa says that constructive dialogue, not military action, is key to resolving Myanmar's instability. The highway, which connects Thailand and India via Myanmar, has been severely affected by ongoing conflict, disrupting billions of dollars of border trade. ASEAN has called on Thailand to host a regional meeting on Myanmar by the end of 2024.
Read more: Straits Times
Junta Scrambles for BRICS Membership
The military regime is investigating BRICS membership to counter Western sanctions while still battling severe flood damage. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is pushing for flood victims to return home, prioritizing a population census critical for upcoming elections over the well-being of the people. The regime is facing harsh criticism for inadequate relief efforts, with around 300,000 people displaced and agricultural devastation. Despite promises of quick recovery, conditions remain dire.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Junta Failures Amplified by Natural Disasters
The aftermath of Typhoon Yagi is laying bare the junta’s inability to govern effectively in the face of disaster. More than 630,000 people were impacted, with mismanagement worsening the devastation. The regime’s obstruction of aid, environmental degradation, and prioritization of power over human lives have only made things worse.
Read more: Eurasia Review
Tycoon Reportedly Facilitating Junta Arms Deals
Wealthy Myanmar tycoon Tun Min Latt, closely linked to junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, reportedly played an important role in brokering arms deals with Israel, including surveillance drones and patrol boats. After a brief stint in a Thai prison on drug trafficking charges, his sudden acquittal raised eyebrows across the region. Tun Min Latt has longstanding connections with Israeli arms manufacturers and Thai political elites. His Star Sapphire Group continues to support Myanmar’s regime, particularly in weapons procurement and business ventures.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Junta Advances Military Tech Ties with China
A Myanmar delegation visited Chinese defense companies to explore cooperation on military technology, including drones and air defense systems. Led by Defense Minister Admiral Tin Aung San, the junta discussed bilateral defense cooperation and the training of personnel. Chinese companies continue to supply the junta with drones and other technologies, despite international opposition.
Gen Z Rebels Risk Lives for Freedom
Since the coup, thousands of young people have joined armed resistance movements, trading personal dreams for the fight against the junta. Many left behind peaceful lives to take up arms with groups such as the People’s Defense Force and Karen National Liberation Army. Facing brutal conditions, these young fighters are united in their desire for justice and peace. Despite personal losses and uncertainty, their shared goal remains the fall of the military regime and a better future for Myanmar.
Read more: RFA
Predatory Moneylenders Exploit the Poor
As Myanmar's economy continues to crumble, illegal moneylenders impose crushing interest rates on desperate borrowers, using hired thugs to collect debts. Borrowers face daily repayments with rates as high as 20% every 10 days, leading to spriraling debts. With law enforcement unable or unwilling to intervene, many poor families are trapped in a cycle of debt, facing violence and losing essential documents as collateral. Legal microfinance services are inadequate, leaving the most vulnerable to fend for themselves.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Myanmar Condo Buyers in Thailand Surge
In the first half of 2024, condo transfers in Thailand to Myanmar nationals soared, exceeding 638 units worth 3.24 billion baht, surpassing the total number for 2023. This is a big rise in Myanmar buyers, who now rank second in terms of both unit numbers and value, following Chinese nationals. However, a crackdown by Myanmar's government in April and stricter financial regulations in Thailand have slowed transactions in the second quarter, as controls are tightening on foreign property purchases.
Read more: Bangkok Post
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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