Myanmar 20250527
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Ex-Prisoners Released, Not Free
Malaysia Prods ASEAN to Act on Myanmar
Blackouts Hide Bombing Campaigns
Economy Crashes as Rules Change Daily
Adidas Factory Workers Strike for Living Wages
Rebels Grab Territory, Not Just Hit-and-Run
Junta Party Hunted in Streets
Chinese, Russian Drones Power Air War
Power Crisis Brings Toxic Projects Back to Life
Powers Jockey Over Rakhine Access
Arakan Army Rules With Mixed Hand
Border Scam Compounds Evolve
Global Business Still Funds War Machine
War Crimes Cases Build Against Generals
Underground Networks Ship Quake Aid
Ex-Prisoners Released, Not Free
Human Rights Myanmar says that the generals are turning prison gates into revolving doors. On release, political detainees are required to sign documents that say they will remain silent, their phones stay tapped, and threats of re-arrest hang over over every conversation. One in six return home to find it gone, confiscated by military decree. Employers shun them, neighbours whisper, and women often lose both children and partners. The watchdog argues this "non-reintegration policy" is another human rights violation and wants foreign governments to treat it as such.
Read more: Mizzima
Malaysia Prods ASEAN to Act on Myanmar
As ASEAN chair, Kuala Lumpur is pushing for a harder line on Myanmar. Foreign minister Zambry Abdul Kadir has called for for an earthquake cease-fire extension, questioned the validity of any junta-run poll, and floated the idea of a permanent ASEAN envoy with a three-year mandate. At home, 285 civil groups have called on Malaysia to cut junta access to meetings and deal instead with the parallel National Unity Government. Summit drafts now being contemplated block junta officials from all ministerial rooms and would funnel aid through civil society groups rather than through government organizations. Observers say much progress will depend on if fence-sitters like Thailand and Laos can be swayed.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Cease-fire Push), Mizzima (Civil Society Letter), Reuters (Summit Talks)
Blackouts Hide Bombing Campaigns
April saw phone and internet service vanish in 138 townships. The void more than an inconvenience: a study reports that 97 percent of air-strike casualties during the junta's post-quake "cease-fire" took place inside blackout zones. Rights groups say the army times strikes to when the signal drops, knowing images will not be able to be sent from the area. Relatedly, there is some concern that UK, Norwegian, and Danish aid banks have poured US$40 million into Frontiir, a local ISP that is running Chinese deep-packet inspection gear built by the Great Firewall's architect. Analysts say that the kit lets soldiers read messages, block VPNs, and target dissent more precisely than ever.
Read more: IFEX (Shutdown Map), Mizzima (Cease-fire Strikes), Finance Uncovered (Surveillance Deal)
Economy Crashes as Rules Change Daily
The UN has tagged post-coup economic losses at a stunning US$93.9 billion, with the kyat down 40 percent and more than half the country suffering below the poverty line. Junta boss Min Aung Hlaing blames tourists (of course!), so businesses are now required to hand over a quarter of their hard-currency earnings at a fixed rate. Tariffs on nine RCEP partners were reduced this month, but importers say that they still need to deal with the burden of daily changes in the rules. Analysts say the economy won’t get back to its pre-COVID size any time before 2028.
Read more: UN News (UN Assessment), Mizzima (Forex Grab), VDB-Loi (RCEP Tariffs)
Adidas Factory Workers Strike for Living Wages
Six thousand workers at Yangon's Tsang Yih Shoe factory, which puts together Adidas sneakers, are sitting in. Daily pay stands at 7,600 kyat - less than two US dollars - after the junta put a freeze on the minimum wage in 2018. Management has offered 900 kyat more but workers want 12,000 and overtime pay based on full wages instead of the anemic base rate. A deputy labour minister reportedly paid a visit to the site, shrugged, and departed, leaving the decisions to the boss. Unions say that more walkouts are brewing as inflation eats up real income and military rulers continue to give no signs that they have an appetite for a wage board review.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Rebels Grab Territory, Not Just Hit-and-Run
Rebel planners have switched from a hit-and-run strategy to more actively try and secure posts, towns, and even helicopters. Karen fighters captured Bledo base on the Thai border after drones dropped 120 mm shells; eight junta forts in their zone have fallen since March. Kachin forces wrecked a crashed transport chopper with a drone bomb, the fifth aircraft they’ve taken out of action since 2021. Analysts tracking radio chatter say morale inside infantry units is dropping, surrenders are rising and ammunition runs are getting ambushed. Rebel commanders are hopeful that they will be able to connect coastal corridors by 2026, betting the army will be unable to defend scattered garrisons all at the same time.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Karen Offensive), The Irrawaddy (Strategic Outlook), The Diplomat (Military Analysis)
Junta Party Hunted in Streets
The junta-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party claims 3,000 members have been killed since the coup. Many have been forced to sleep inside Yangon headquarters or travel in disguise; a retired brigadier-general was shot dead last week on an upscale street. Urban cells say that the murder campaign is payback for collaboration. National polls are expected in for December, ruling generals need only 56 elected seats to rubber-stamp their continuance in power thanks to a slate of army-appointed MPs. Whether the USDP can field candidates outside fortified cities is becoming more doubtful by the week.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Party Fear), The Irrawaddy (Assassination)
Chinese, Russian Drones Power Air War
New Chinese and Russian drones with night-vision and infrared sensors are tipping battles toward the ruling junta. Videos show laser-guided strikes in Kachin's Bhamo township and along the Sittaung basin. Rights monitors have counted 372 air raids since the March quake, including a school hit that took the lives of 22 children. While Western sanctions choke parts supplies, Beijing and Moscow continue to approve export licenses and vote for UN vetoes, allowing the junta to replace lost aircraft faster than the rebels can shoot them down.
Read more: South China Morning Post (Drone Upgrade), The Irrawaddy (Diplomatic Cover)
Power Crisis Brings Toxic Projects Back to Life
Daily blackouts are allowing Yangon only eight hours of light, so the junta has reopened talks on the shelved US$7.2 billion Myitsone Dam, once brought to a stop over earthquake risks and Kachin protests. Russian engineers have arrived to finish the Pinpet steel plant's air-separation unit in Shan State, reviving a project that’s been lying fallow since 2017. In Thailand, authorities say that they plan to check dams in order to filter cyanide and arsenic that’s leaking from Chinese-run gold mines in Wa territory, while the Mekong Commission is pressing for water testing. Environmental campaigners are raising the alarm that up-river dams, down-river poisons, and unchecked mining could come together into one region-wide crisis.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Dam Revival), Asia Financial (Toxic Runoff), Mizzima (Pinpet Steel)
Powers Jockey Over Rakhine Access
Washington has been taking about a "humanitarian corridor" from Bangladesh; Beijing is standing guard over pipelines and ports; Dhaka wonders if aid channels could give it some relief from its million-soul Rohingya burden; New Delhi is keeping watch on the Sittwe-Mizoram highway and frowns at any plan that increases Chinese sway. Analysts say whoever shapes access to Rakhine will have powerful influence over energy routes through the Bay of Bengal. The Arakan Army currently holds most rural ground, so any corridor could lean on its fighters for security, a prospect the junta promises it will not allow. Great-power envoys are already courting local administrators even as munitions continue to rain down.
Read more: The Diplomat (US-China Angles), NDTV (India Stakes), The Jakarta Post (Bangladesh View)
Arakan Army Rules With Mixed Hand
The Arakan Army has freed 184 captured military family members, in a move that’s earned them public praise from a commander's wife for their "humane" treatment. Days later, however, the AA’s political wing barred men 18-45 and women 18-25 from leaving Rakhine without permission, saying it was due to a defense emergency that allows it to draft adults into two-year service. Checkpoints now require travelers to present papers and mobile phones are searched for military contacts.
Read more: Mizzima (Prisoner Release), The Irrawaddy (Travel Ban), Myanmar Now (Draft Rules)
Border Scam Compounds Evolve
Cyber-crime citadels at KK Park and Shwe Kokko pull in billions each year through kidnapping-backed online fraud. An East Asia Forum paper says periodic raids don’t change much on the ground because police and local officials benefit from the status quo through kickbacks. New investors from Chinese grey capital are redeveloping compounds with AI voice cloning and deepfake tech, empowering the snaring of new victims worldwide. Apparently crackdowns also risk pushing gangs deeper into Karen border hills, making rescue missions harder and giving rebel factions another funding source. Tricky situation all around.
Read more: East Asia Forum
Global Business Still Funds War Machine
A Justice For Myanmar probe points the finger at oil, gas, timber, real estate, fintech, and aviation fuel traders across ASEAN for adding millions to military coffers. Separate research is tracking jet fuel shipments from PetroChina and Russia's Rosneft that are routed through Vietnam and Singapore to launder their origins on the way to frontline air bases. Even aid agencies' internet bills might be feeding the surveillance: As mentioned in the summary above (Blackouts), European development banks have funded an ISP that runs aggressive Chinese censorship equipment. Activists say there needs to be an ASEAN arms and fuel embargo and tighter banking audits to choke revenue streams that keep the gunships airborne.
Read more: Justice For Myanmar (Corporate Links), International Affairs Australia (Fuel Routes), Finance Uncovered (ISP Funding)
War Crimes Cases Build Against Generals
Reporters at The Telegraph have listed 63 senior officers as prime targets for war-crimes charges, from Min Aung Hlaing down. Argentina has already issued arrest warrants for 25 officials under universal jurisdiction, and International Criminal Court files keep growing. Activists are exploring novel legal tactics to bring pressure to bear: ethnic courts in Kachin and Karen areas, or targeted sanctions that bring inconvenience by freezing offshore yacht repairs and children's tuition. Bard College added moral pressure by giving its humanitarian award to jailed economist and ex-central-bank deputy Bo Bo Nge, jailed for 20 years on graft charges that lawyers say were fabricated.
Read more: The Telegraph (Paths to Accountability), The Irrawaddy (Award)
Underground Networks Ship Quake Aid
With the army blocking foreign NGOs from access to citizens in need, diaspora workers in Thailand have moved tents, tarps, and medicine through underground networks connected to the National Unity Government and local defense forces. Donors keep names off bank transfers to avoid surveillance. Community groups have been reportedly been talking to Japanese diplomats about ways they might channel larger sums through ASEAN mechanisms that sidestep military checkpoints while still meeting donor audit rules.
Read more: Global Voices(Grassroots Aid), Devpolicy (Policy Debate)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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