Myanmar 20250708
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Keeps Losing Ground
December Election Plan Falls Flat
Money Troubles Mount for Military
Digital Evolution: Banking and Cyber Crime
Tech Transforms Warfare and Communication
Malaria on the Rise, Polio Returns
Human Rights Violations Target Children
Aung San Suu Kyi's Uncertain Fate
Peace Attempts Lack Credibility
Junta Keeps Losing Ground
The military's grip continues to slip as they now control about 40% of the country. Resistance groups and ethnic armed organizations have recently made gains across the board: the Karenni resistance has found unprecedented success in Kayah State, and the Arakan Army continues to expand the area under its control in Rakhine State. The junta hasn’t let up entirely on its campaign of airstrikes, forced conscription, and scorched-earth tactics, however, and the result is a growing tally of more than 6,600 civilian casualties.
Read more: The Spectator (Territorial Gains), Foreign Policy (Chinese Influence), Kathmandupost (Arakan Army), Lowyinstitute (Federal Future)
December Election Plan Falls Flat
The military regime's plan to hold elections in December 2025 continues to be met with rejection. They want to conduct voting in 267 of 330 townships, though security assessments report that only 188 are safe enough. Out of 77 political parties that registered, 54 received approval, and just 9 parties will be competing nationally. The National Unity Government says the upcoming election is a "political farce" and says the 2020 election results remain legitimate. The junta is writing special laws to protect the elections and has designed a parliamentary structure that guarantees military representatives will hold positions regardless of how the vote turns out.
Read more: Mizzima (NUG Criticism), NPNewsMM (Election Structure), Irrawaddy (Election Law), Irrawaddy (Public Skepticism)
Money Troubles Mount for Military
The junta has blacklisted 197 companies for not following foreign exchange rules that require exporters to deposit earnings in military-controlled banks. Companies are required to convert 25% of dollar earnings to kyats at the official rate of 2,100 kyats per dollar (the market rate is ~4,500 kyats). The regime is expecting a budget deficit of 8,300 billion kyats for fiscal year 2025-2026 (~5% of GDP), 50% higher than the year prior. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has rejected the World Bank's forecast of a 2.5% economic contraction, claiming it uses "inaccurate data".
Read more: Irrawaddy (Blacklisted Companies), Mizzima (Budget Deficit), Irrawaddy (World Bank Dispute), Irrawaddy(Currency Crackdown)
Digital Evolution: Banking and Cyber Crime
The Central Bank of Myanmar has created a 13-member committee to work on a Central Bank Digital Currency to modernize the financial system and cut dependence on physical cash. The committee’s job will be to study technologies, regulatory frameworks, and impacts on payment systems to figure out the best way forward. On the darker side, Visa has started using a $12 billion AI-powered system to fight cyber fraud, targeting criminal organizations running scam centers in Myanmar.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Digital Currency), Malay Mail (VISA/ Cyber Crime)
Tech Transforms Warfare and Communication
The Myanmar conflict has seen drones revolutionize warfare. Resistance groups at first found advantages by using modified commercial drones, but the military now uses sophisticated systems from China, Russia, and Iran. Both sides use multi-rotor, fixed-wing, and kamikaze drones for reconnaissance, strikes, and psychological warfare. On the communication front, citizens are showing the future of how people can adapt to modern communications blockages with creative solutions, including payphone businesses in remote areas and internet cafes using smuggled Starlink equipment. Young people bypass restrictions with VPNs and satellite internet, while some communities have built bamboo antennas to stay connected.
Read more: ACLED Data (Drone Warfare), Digital Courier (Communication Adaptation), Mizzima (Surveillance Technology)
Malaria on the Rise, Polio Returns
Rakhine State has reported more than 1,000 malaria cases and about 30 deaths so far this year. In northeastern Shan state, a three-year-old girl has been diagnosed with vaccine-derived polio type 1, Myanmar's first case since 2019. About 1.2 million children have missed routine vaccinations: 395 hospitals have been destroyed or damaged, and 152 healthcare workers have been killed since the coup.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Malaria Outbreak), Telegraph (Polio Case)
Human Rights Violations Target Children
The junta continues to recruit child soldiers, with documented cases involving children as young as 12. A new report from the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants examines how displacement and human trafficking intersect in Southeast Asia, showing how political conflict creates severe vulnerabilities. Trafficking risks include forced labor in fishing, agriculture, and construction, plus threats from online scam operations. Companies face legal exposure, potential stranded assets, reputational damage, and regulatory consequences.
Read more: AI Invest (Child Soldiers), ReliefWeb (Human Trafficking)
Aung San Suu Kyi's Uncertain Fate
Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's deposed civilian leader who turned 80 last month, remains in confinement at an unknown location since being transferred from Naypyitaw Prison in April 2024. The military has been trying to sell her historic Yangon residence, but has failed to do so in four auction attempts since March. The colonial-style property, covering nearly 8,000 square meters at 54 University Avenue, carries a price tag of 270 billion kyats (about $59 million). Pro-democracy groups oppose selling the historically important property, which served as the site of Suu Kyi's previous house arrests.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Detention Location), Kyodo News (Property Auction)
Peace Attempts Lack Credibility
The junta recently held a "Peace Forum" with 259 participants, including government officials and political party reps, but no active resistance groups or ethnic armed organizations showed up. Reports are that the forum is more of a fig leaf to create an image of legitimacy than it is a real attempt at peace. In an excursion that raised more than a few eyebrows, Lt-Gen Min Naing, secretary of Myanmar's junta NSPNC, visited the Oslo Forum 2025, a global peace conference. His appearance attracted a fair bit of criticism, given his previous threats to bomb resistance areas and his government’s role in the deaths of nearly 10,000 civilians since 2021.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Peace Forum), Irrawaddy (Oslo Forum)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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