Myanmar 20250902
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Vote Drive Continues Despite War
Talks Sputter, Fighting Spikes
Junta Retakes Mandalay Gold Mine
China Sets Terms on Border
Border Crackdown Chokes Trade
Junta Hires U.S. Lobbyists
Telenor in Norway Probe
Rare Earth Boom Poisons Shan
Labor Risks in the Junta’s Shadow
Tariffs Shut Yangon Bag Factory
Gokteik Bridge Blown Off Line
Vote Drive Continues Despite War
A new election law threatens death for those who disrupt it. The regime plans to begin phased voting on Dec 28 in 102 townships - leaders are already out on tour to sell it. The junta is prepping security in battle areas even as airstrikes and ground pushes continue to displace families from their homes. Opposition groups and foreign governments say the election is a façade, and they want ASEAN and others to reject the (inevitable) results.
Read more: Arab News (Façade warning), The Irrawaddy (Pre-poll push), The Irrawaddy (Campaign tour), The Irrawaddy (Election law)
Talks Sputter, Fighting Spikes
Talks in Kunming collapsed after the junta demanded that the TNLA evacuate all captured towns under its control. Fighting climbed across northern Shan as troops seized Naungpein near Kyaukme and pushed along Highway 2, while the Ta'ang National Liberation Army mounted counterattacks. The army also retook the Yadana Theingi mine corridor toward Mogoke after fighting that drove more than 10,000 residents from their homes and brought in air and artillery strikes. The terrain in that area favors spoiling attacks and attrition as lines shift around mines, roads, and township centers, so prolonged fighting is expected.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Naungpein loss), The Irrawaddy (Mining front), Myanmar Now (Talks collapse)
Junta Retakes Mandalay Gold Mine
The army retook the Phayaung Taung gold mine northeast of Mandalay. Light Infantry Battalion 329 led the push with about 150 militia fighters. A defected officer says the army wants to extend control toward the Sedawgyi Dam. The mine covers an area of 5,400 acres under a joint venture with state‑run No. 2 Mining Enterprise and Myanmar Golden Point Family Co. Residents say there have been heavier-than-normal air sorties and the use of conscripts in Mandalay Region, including Mogoke, Singu, and Thabeikkyin.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
China Sets Terms on Border
Min Aung Hlaing, on his first China trip since the coup, thanked Xi Jinping for putting heat on northern Myanmar’s armed groups. The two leaders showed a united front on the need for a peace process, on backing the upcoming election, and supporting ongoing BRI/CMEC projects. They signed seven MoUs during the visit. Chinese mediation (pressure?) is changing the behavior of armed groups in northern Shan and stoking rivalry between the KIA, TNLA, and others.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Xi outreach), ISEAS (Mediation dynamics), Mizzima (China tilt)
Border Crackdown Chokes Trade
The junta shut the Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge No. 2 and increased inspections of both road and air cargo, cutting off imports and forcing product into warehouses with rising fees. Traders say import licenses have been frozen and new rules value imports at export-value prices, squeezing trader cash flow and disrupting inventory cycles. Thai law puts a one‑month clock on goods held in Mae Sot; permits are expiring, and owners are at risk of seizure and auction if they don’t get their product out. Current workarounds include ferrying goods by boat to Myawaddy, but that’s onerous and, in any event, it is tough to get cargo from there to anywhere else easily as well.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Crackdown scope), BNI Online (Permit risk)
Junta Hires U.S. Lobbyists
The regime hired American lobbyist The McKeon Group on a six-month, $60,000 per month contract from August 1 to try to get their story through to the U.S. Congress and State Department. This deal is separate from a $3 million deal with DCI Group. The PR drive is in aid of getting rid of sanctions, reducing Myanmar’s isolation, and securing meetings with policymakers.
Read more: Mizzima
Telenor in Norway Probe
Norwegian groups Justice for Myanmar and ICJ Norway have filed a police complaint saying Telenor violated sanctions by installing and handing over surveillance gear to Myanmar authorities from 2018 to 2022. Reports show that Telenor rolled over on more than 1,300 data requests in the wake of the coup, including metadata and location records that were used to track activists. The data trail is also reportedly linked to the arrest and July 2022 execution of Ko Jimmy. Telenor sold its unit in 2022 to partners tied to the junta, later rebranded as Atom. Campaigners say the complaint will test sanctions enforcement and corporate accountability.
Read more: Scandasia (Sanctions claim), Scandasia (Data requests)
Rare Earth Boom Poisons Shan
Nineteen Chinese‑run rare earth mines are now running in NDAA‑controlled eastern Shan, up from three in early 2021, with 16 reported active using environmentally damaging “in‑situ leaching” methods. The Shan Human Rights Foundation says polluted runoff drains into the Lwe River, a Mekong tributary, and is resulting in long‑term soil and groundwater damage like that already found in Kachin. The group wants permit reviews, real safeguards on the environment, and improved enforcement, as they say mining money rules local life, and state checks are inadequate in the area.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Labor Risks in the Junta’s Shadow
EuroCham Myanmar published a Business Advisory on the ILO Article 33 resolution. It points its members to due diligence and the UN Guiding Principles. The EU‑funded MADE in Myanmar project runs through 2026 with €3 million for better practices in the garment sector. So far (since September 2023), it has dealt with 439 worker complaints. On the ground, arrests and firings continue to keep unions under pressure. Daw Myo Myo Aye of the Solidarity Trade Union of Myanmar recently gave an interview, and police detained her shortly thereafter.
Read more: Mizzima (EuroCham/MADE), Frontier Myanmar (Union voice)
Tariffs Shut Yangon Bag Factory
A 40% U.S. tariff that took effect on August 1 has pushed Twinkle (Myanmar), a Chinese‑owned factory supplying Samsonite and others, to close and lay off more than 200 workers with a single month of pay. The garment and bag industry is one of Myanmar’s biggest employers with nearly 800,000 workers. Since 2021, it has navigated sanctions, sluggish orders, and currency stress. The Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association warns that the higher U.S. duties will reduce orders further and will certainly force other factories to close, as factories run on razor‑thin margins and unstable logistics.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Gokteik Bridge Blown Off Line
The historic Gokteik railway bridge on the Mandalay–Lashio line has reportedly collapsed as a result of fighting. The junta blames a TNLA bomb, the TNLA points to a junta drone strike. The loss is a devastating blow to a critical rail link across Shan State and adds repair costs to a network that’s already been hit by landslides, bridge attacks, and fuel shortages. Freight and passenger rerouting will now add time and risk to those who rely on the line for market access, school commutes, and healthcare services.
Read more: Shia Waves
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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