Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
Junta Celebrates End to US Protected Status
Amnesty for Thousands Before Elections
Lukashenko Visit Cements Authoritarian Alliance
Karen Rebels Want Help on Scam Compound
Collapse Threatens Rohingya With Starvation
Junta’s Scam Crackdown Gets Skepticism
Dismissals Over Corruption for Junta, NUG
China-Backed Railway Project Chugging Along
UN Warns of Mass Surveillance During Vote
Tatmadaw Adapts After Operation 1027 Defeats
TNLA Prepares to Return Ruby Town to Junta
Rare Earth Mining Extracts a Costly Toll
Junta Celebrates End to US Protected Status
The junta applauded the US decision to end Temporary Protected Status for around 4,000 Myanmar citizens, claiming it’s a great show of progress toward political stability. The US Department of Homeland Security claimed “substantial steps toward political stability” as the reason for the change in their position. Junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun encouraged Myanmar citizens to come home and participate in upcoming elections. United Nations officials and advocacy groups have been equally vocal in criticizing the TPS termination, wondering why ongoing violence and human rights abuses appear to be being overlooked.
Read more: The Straits Times
Amnesty for Thousands Before Elections
The military government has reduced or dropped sentences for more than 3,000 people previously convicted under laws intended to suppress dissent after the 2021 coup. The decision will affect people who were convicted under Section 505A of the Penal Code and will bring a close to more than 5,500 pending cases. The junta expects that its magnanimity will prevent individuals from losing their voting rights ahead of elections scheduled to begin in late December. Released prisoners included Kyi Toe, an aide to Aung San Suu Kyi, who spoke about unity in a post-release interview even as Suu Kyi herself remains locked up. Rights monitors and UN experts say the elections are a facade for continued military rule, and more than 22,000 people continue to be held by the junta.
Read more: Manila Times (Amnesty Details), Asahi (Prisoner Release), Mizzima (Kyi Toe Release), VOCO FM (Western Criticism), Chronicle Online (Insein Prison)
Lukashenko Visit Cements Authoritarian Alliance
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko visited Myanmar at the invitation of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing this week, the first visit by a foreign head of state since the 2021 coup. The two-day agenda included talks on cooperation in agriculture, food security, pharmaceuticals, and trade, with plans to sign several agreements, including a “roadmap for cooperation for 2026-2028.” Relations between Belarus and Myanmar have been on the upswing. They started warming up with arms sales and have now grown into wider diplomatic and economic interactions.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Karen Rebels Want Help on Scam Compound
The Karen National Union asked for international cooperation to investigate a recently seized scam compound from the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army in Myawaddy Township. The KNU and allied People’s Defense Forces took control of the compound during sparring with the DKBA, which is linked to the junta. The first look inside appeared to show large-scale illegal operations involving about 2,000 foreign nationals, with some of them reportedly armed. Hundreds of foreign workers have been transferred to Thai authorities.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Collapse Threatens Rohingya With Starvation
The accelerating economic freefall is pushing the Rohingya community in Rakhine State toward a humanitarian disaster, according to United Nations warnings this week. The economy has shrunk by nearly a third since 2020, with the kyat hitting record lows and the prices of basic staples skyrocketing. Unrelenting conflict between the military and the Arakan Army has broken up transport routes, creating acute shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. Health workers say there continues to be rising malnutrition in Rohingya children and pregnant women, and medical access remains limited due to the poor security situation. Some families are picking up stakes and moving Bangladesh, but Bangladesh has been clear that refugees aren’t welcome there.
Read more: Weekly Blitz
Junta’s Scam Crackdown Gets Skepticism
The military regime arrested more than 1,600 foreign nationals between November 18 and 23, 2025, in raids targeting online fraud syndicates in Shwe Kokko. The operation resulted in 1,590 arrests connected to online fraud, illegal gambling, and human trafficking. Authorities took 2,893 computers, 21,000 mobile phones, and 101 SpaceX Starlink receivers in the action. The junta destroyed another 11 buildings they say were connected to illegal activities in KK Park, raising the total number of such demolitions this year to 217. So far this year, 12,468 foreign nationals have been detained. Almost 10,000 have been deported, and 2,608 are still in custody. It seems that the military benefits from its relationship with scam operators, and the raids are mostly performative propaganda.
Read more: Weekly Blitz (Arrests), Wired (Expert Analysis), Myanmar Now (Protection Claims), Vietnam Plus (Overall Campaign), Myanmar ITV (Shan State Operations)
Dismissals Over Corruption for Junta, NUG
The junta has pulled out the ol’ shepherd’s crook to yank Deputy Minister for Energy U Thant Sin out of his job after allegations of dollar speculation and corruption related to fuel imports. U Thant Sin was appointed in October 2023 and previously led the Supervisory Committee for Fuel Oil. His removal is part of a trend where internal military reshuffles happen after sporadic corruption crackdowns. Media also reported that Air Force Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Zaw Win Myint has been dismissed and replaced by Major General Tun Win, though this remains unconfirmed. On the other side of the governance divide, the National Unity Government suspended Daw Kyi Pyar, the permanent secretary of the Prime Minister’s Office, and her husband, U Nyi Nyi Min, over allegations of nepotism, corruption, and misuse of authority. On November 19, 12 staff members from the Prime Minister’s Office filed complaints alleging that the couple’s management style had turned the office into a family operation.
Read more: Mizzima (Junta Removal), The Irrawaddy (NUG Removal)
China-Backed Railway Project Chugging Along
It has just been reported this week that the junta set up a Project Steering Committee to work on figuring out how to get a Muse-Mandalay railway built in August. The committee is led by Transport and Communications Minister Mya Tun Oo, and the railway would be part of both China’s Belt and Road Initiative as well as of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. The railway is expected to connect Muse with Mandalay (with a few stops along the way), ultimately linking to Kyaukphyu in Rakhine State to provide China with access to the Indian Ocean. The committee will work on negotiation frameworks, source investors/ secure financing, and oversee related agreements. Armed groups like the MNDAA and TNLA still control stretches of the railway corridor, a hiccup that’s going to require some horse trading for project advancement.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
UN Warns of Mass Surveillance During Vote
The United Nations says that the planned (and panned) elections cannot be free or fair due to the potential for mass electronic surveillance by the junta. The UN human rights office thinks that the junta is coercing citizens into voting using electronic voting machines and AI surveillance technologies that might infringe on voter privacy and freedom. Junta forces are reportedly coercing displaced citizens to return to vote and have allegedly forced more than 700 inmates in Loikaw Prison to cast advance votes. Displaced people in Mandalay and Sagaing have also said they’ve been threatened with the loss of aid and shelter if they don’t comply with advance voting demands.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Surveillance Warning), US News (Coercion), Myanmar Now (Electronic Voting), Mizzima (Prison Voting), The Irrawaddy (IDP Pressure)
Tatmadaw Adapts After Operation 1027 Defeats
In 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched an offensive against the military, leading to a string of defeats that the junta pinned on its own structural fragilities. The Tatmadaw has since reorganized, however, and has boosted its success by emphasizing conscription (80,000 recruits since 2024), paramilitary mobilization, and drone warfare. Successes have been seen in northern states like Kachin and Shan, where adaptations led to advantages against ethnic armed groups. Coordination improved with decentralized command, allowing field commanders to authorize air support. In the southeast, progress against the Karen National Union has been slower, partly due to operational challenges, but also because of difficult terrain. In Rakhine, the Tatmadaw has seen more robust challenges from the Arakan Army, losing territory despite their new methods.
Read more: Eurasia Review (Military Adaptation), The Irrawaddy (China Warning)
TNLA Prepares to Return Ruby Town to Junta
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army is pulling its administration and licensed gem-mining companies out of Mogoke ahead of a plan to return control of the area to junta forces. Nearly all TNLA-run departments, including health and education, have relocated from Mogoke, with only administrative and police units remaining to maintain order during the handover. TNLA battalions have been pulled back, with some units positioned near Monglon to keep watch over the transition as thousands of junta troops approach Mogoke. The TNLA previously took control of the area in July 2024 during Operation 1027, with resistance groups supporting their efforts. The handover follows China-brokered ceasefire talks, but some of the resistance groups that participated in the original takeover are… less than pleased. Many local residents have left town already to avoid the junta’s return, leaving Mogoke and Mongmit nearly deserted.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Rare Earth Mining Extracts a Costly Toll
In early 2025, workers began flocking to Shan State to mine rare earth minerals after hearing of high wages. Demand for rare earths is on the rise due to geopolitical supply chain changes. Since the early 2010s, China’s restrictions on its own domestic extraction have led to rising levels of mining in Myanmar, where labor is cheap, and regulations are weak. The rare earth elements are crucial for technologies and military hardware, but are often extracted with little regard for community safety or the environment.
Read more: Undark
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.