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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Drug Production Hits Record Levels
Thailand Balances Diplomacy and Security
US Ends Protected Status for Myanmar Nationals
Junta-Backed Elections Lack Credibility
Economy Contracts but Green Shoots in Sight
Scam Operations Continue Despite Crackdowns
China Trades Economic Influence for Control
Resistance Forces on a Complex Battlefield
International Relations: IN, BY, LK, DK, RU
Media and Political Prisoners Get Limited Release
Trade and Investment Navigate Political Realities
Humanitarian and Security Challenges
Drug Production Hits Record Levels
Myanmar’s opium poppy cultivation has reached a 10-year high in 2025, expanding nearly a fifth to 53,100 hectares according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. The country has now bested Afghanistan as the world’s leading producer of illicitly produced opium, with an estimated annual output of 1,010 metric tons. Fresh opium prices have risen to about $329 per kilogram, more than double the 2019 price of $145. The opium economy is valued between $641 million and $1.05 billion and makes up about 1.4% of GDP. Myanmar is also the top global producer of methamphetamine, organized at industrial levels and distributed widely across Asia and the Pacific. Cannabis cultivation is also spreading in Sagaing Region; farmers say it’s far more profitable than traditional crops.
Read more: Mezha (Production Levels), Euronews (UNODC Report), Tribune India (Border Areas), Irrawaddy (Cannabis Expansion)
Thailand Balances Diplomacy and Security
Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow visited Naypyidaw on December 7 for talks on border stability, illegal trade, and fraud. Both governments said that they wanted to work better on cooperation against telecom scams, online gambling, and arms trafficking along their shared border. Yet Thailand’s foreign minister also said that the planned Myanmar elections cannot be recognized while political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, remain detained, earning praise from the National Unity Consultative Council. This balancing act comes as stray artillery shells from clashes in Myawaddy injured two Thai villagers in Tak province on December 7. Thailand also says that it is going to give one-year work permit extensions for Myanmar citizens (along with migrants from Laos and Vietnam) to help prevent (Thai) labor shortages.
Read more: Mizzima (Bilateral Talks), Mizzima (Election Stance), Frontier Myanmar (Transition Urging), Bangkok Post(Border Incidents), Eleven Myanmar (Labor Policy)
US Ends Protected Status for Myanmar Nationals
The Department of Homeland Security announced that Temporary Protected Status for Myanmar is coming to an end in a change that will affect roughly 4,000 Myanmar nationals living in the United States. Secretary Kristi Noem cited the end of the state of emergency and plans for “free and fair elections” as justification, claims that contradict what the State Department is saying as it continues to document ongoing torture, extrajudicial killings, and other abuses. Human rights experts like John Sifton from Human Rights Watch said the administration’s rationale is unrealistic, but the junta in Naypyidaw welcomed the decision and encouraged exiled nationals to come back.
Read more: Presidential Prayer Team (TPS Termination), Next Shark (Refugee Impact), MPR News (Minnesota Response), Mizzima (Immigration Halt), ABC Australia (Safety Concerns)
Junta-Backed Elections Lack Credibility
The military junta continues to press ahead with elections that it plans to begin in late December, but the process is still getting tarred as a complete sham by international observers, resistance groups, and democracy advocates. The National League for Democracy and 39 other opposition parties have been dissolved, leaving the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party to dominate a field of 57 contesting parties. New electoral laws mandate prison sentences of 3-20 years for criticism or protest, and voting is only going to be able to happen in 274 of 330 townships because of military control issues. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has made clear the military is going to stay in politics indefinitely, saying that armed forces involvement in parliament will only be reduced once ethnic armed organizations disappear and a “fully democratic system” is in place. UN officials continue to say that the elections are scheduled in an atmosphere of fear and violence, with more than 22,000 political prisoners detained and more than 30,000 arrested since the 2021 coup.
Read more: Mizzima (Military Role), Mizzima (Election Framework), Eurasia Review (Legal Analysis), Hindustan Times (Crisis Context), IFEX (Media Restrictions), OHCHR (UN Concerns)
Economy Contracts but Green Shoots in Sight
The World Bank thinks Myanmar’s GDP is going to get 2% smaller in the year ending March 2026, a further downward revision from its previous best guess of 2.5%. Inflation is expected to remain above 20%, which is going to keep upward pressure on living costs. The kyat has strengthened recently after last year’s depreciation, and there are small signs of an economic bounce, but by and large, the situation remains dire.
Read more: Business Times (GDP Forecast), World Bank (Economic Monitor), Narinjara (Food Insecurity), Nikkei Asia (Territory Control)
Scam Operations Continue Despite Crackdowns
The junta claims to be getting rid of scam centers, but residents of Myawaddy say that operations have simply relocated to rented housing within town rather than disappearing. Local sources indicate the presence of Chinese nationals is increasing, and new scam centers are openly coming online. The scam industry in Myanmar, said to be worth at least $37 billion annually, mostly benefits Chinese syndicates and Myanmar militia leaders.
Read more: Mizzima (Industry Analysis), Irrawaddy (Myawaddy Situation), Asia One (Demolitions), China Daily(Repatriations), Tempo.co (Indonesian Victims), Channel 4 (Documentary), Irrawaddy (Worker Interview)
China Trades Economic Influence for Control
China has used economic pressure to support the military’s State Security and Peace Commission, helping the junta recapture some territory lost in the civil war. Beijing enforced a “five-cut policy” against non-state groups, restricting essential services to keep control. A leaked document shows that Chinese diplomats are willing to use substantial leverage to get what they want. PRC-based firms are increasing the rate of rare earth element mining in Shan and Kachin States by working with ethnic militias; satellite images show an eightfold rise in mining sites since 2015. The cooperation between militias and Chinese ventures includes revenue-sharing agreements and security arrangements.
Read more: Think China (Economic Strategy), Jamestown Foundation (Mining Operations), Economist (Leaked Document), Eleven Myanmar (Tech Cooperation)
Resistance Forces on a Complex Battlefield
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army is accused of protecting junta troops in Mongmit after returning control of the town under a China-brokered ceasefire agreement. TNLA forces have blocked Kachin Independence Army-led resistance troops from advancing and are sharing intelligence with the junta about resistance movements. Renewed fighting erupted in Mogok on December 1 after junta troops came into town under a deal reportedly mediated by China. People’s Defence Forces say fighters sometimes switch sides due to financial necessity. The fractured resistance lacks cohesion, and different forces have differing priorities that complicate a unified opposition.
Read more: Irrawaddy (TNLA Actions), Mizzima (Mogok Fighting), Bangkok Post (Shifting Alliances), Arab News(Tabayin Airstrike), Myanmar Now (Regime Attacks)
International Relations: IN, BY, LK, DK, RU
India has called for “free, fair and inclusive” elections, saying that participation of all political stakeholders is needed for credibility. Elections will be limited to 274 of 330 townships, with polling scrapped in 1,585 village areas due to safety/ control issues. Russia and Belarus said they would send election observers, but ASEAN says that it won’t. Belarus made its first large-scale medical supply delivery to Myanmar in late November, valued at more than $160,000. Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka visited Myanmar between November 26 and December 1 as part of an arms trade tour to Asia and Africa. Myanmar sent 9.2 tons of medical aid to flood-hit Sri Lanka on December 7 in the wake of Cyclone Ditwah. Denmark is closing its embassy in Myanmar by the end of 2026 due to deteriorating conditions post-coup, saying that it’s going to redirect its resources to more promising places. Russia is also talking more trade, particularly fertilizers and related machinery.
Read more: Republic World (India Position), Belsat (Belarus Visit), Eleven Myanmar (Sri Lanka Aid), Scand Asia(Denmark Closure), Myanmar Now (NUG Reshuffle), Prensa Latina (Russia Trade)
Media and Political Prisoners Get Limited Release
In November, the junta said it would release 724 prisoners, and 268 were confirmed released by December 1 as part of a mass amnesty purportedly to support voter participation. Six journalists were freed on December 4, including veteran journalist U Sithu Aung Myint, BBC Media Action producer Ma Htet Htet Khine, and Bago Weekly reporter Ko Nyein Chan Wai. Their sentences had ranged from 6 to 12 years for reporting activities post-coup. At least 27 journalists are still locked up. Former student union secretary Ma Poe Piti Khaing was rearrested on December 3, just one day after her release from Myingyan Prison, and charged under the Terrorism Act. Released prisoners reported poor conditions, untreated health issues, and poor (and declining!) food quality. Mawlaik Kalay Prison still holds about 1,600 inmates, more than 500 of them are political prisoners.
Read more: CPJ (Journalist Releases), Mizzima (Amnesty Details), Mizzima (Rearrest), ABC Australia (Prisoner Context)
Trade and Investment Navigate Political Realities
Myanmar Investment Commission approved 14 new projects valued at $57 million in early December, expected to create about 4,000 jobs. The 60th Myanma Gems Emporium held from November 17-26 reported strong sales of jade, pearls, and gemstones to local and foreign traders, with demand particularly high for mid-grade jade favored by the Chinese. The 2025 Myanmar International Textile and Machinery Fair opened in Yangon on December 6 with more than 100 exhibitors, including 10 Chinese brands. CITIC Myanmar celebrated the 10th anniversary of its CSR work this week, showing off community development programs that benefit 50 villages and provide educational support to more than 60 schools.
Read more: Bernama (Investment Projects), Mizzima (Gems Emporium), Xinhua (Textile Fair), Myanmar TV (CITIC Anniversary), ReliefWeb (Market Conditions)
Humanitarian and Security Challenges
Landmine casualties hit a four-year high in 2024 with more than 6,000 incidents reported, including 1,945 deaths and 4,325 injuries. Nearly 90% of victims were civilians, and about half were women and children. Trump’s foreign aid cuts threaten to starve Myanmar refugees in Thailand, with 83% of aid beneficiaries at the Mae La camp set to lose food supplies and medical services starting in January. The camp is home to more than 40,000 refugees who have been there since 1984. In India, protests are gaining strength to oppose the Indian government’s plan to build a fence along the border. Fear and mistrust are also growing as India collects biometrics from Myanmar refugees on concerns about collaboration with the junta.
Read more: Sight Magazine (Landmine Report), English Hani (Refugee Aid Cuts), Mizzima (Border Fence), Myanmar Now (Biometric Data)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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