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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Military-Backed Party Sweeps Elections
Violence and Coercion Mar Voting Process
International Observers Give Cover
Resistance Push in Katha, Budalin, Yesdashe
ASEAN and Regional Powers Tread Carefully
Census May Shape Future More Than Election
Economic Outlook Stays Bleak
Infrastructure Progress on Keng Kham Dam
Investment Climate Sanction Risks
Bamboo Housing for Low Cost, High Durability
Military-Backed Party Sweeps Elections
The junta’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has dominated the first phase of elections that started on December 28, winning 88 of 96 seats declared by the Union Election Commission. Voter turnout reached 52% from more than 11 million eligible voters, a decline from past elections. The USDP was able to secure all the seats up for grabs in Yangon Region’s 12 townships and swept Naypyidaw’s eight townships. A rare defeat occurred in Myeik where the People’s Party won, and Lt-Gen Aung Aung, a military official linked to Rohingya atrocities, lost his Taunggyi seat to the Pa-O National Organisation by more than 10,000 votes. Two more voting phases are scheduled to take place on January 11 and 25. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing announced on January 1 his intention to transfer power to the elected government following the multi-phased elections.
Read more: Asia Nikkei (Overall Results), Borderlens (Analysis), Mizzima (Township Breakdown), Myanmar Now (Aung Aung Defeat), Mizzima (Digital Repression), Northeast Bylines (Sham Elections), Mizzima (Power Transfer Pledge), Mizzima (Exit Strategy), Wire (Legitimacy)
Violence and Coercion Mar Voting Process
Election day saw widespread violence, including drone strikes and attacks at polling sites. In Chin State, the junta ran aerial bombardments in Falam, Hakha, and Kanpetlet townships on election day, destroying homes and a cemetery. Three bombs dropped on Zathir village forced evacuations. Widespread intimidation and fear were reported among voters; many are fearful of military conscription affecting their choices. Resistance groups attacked regime bases during the voting, including at Katha Township’s eastern entrance. The Union Election Commission acknowledged it was not able to run polling in 65 townships due to a loss of control.
Read more: Mizzima (Chin State Bombings), ABC News (Voter Intimidation), Borderlens (Election Day Violence), Relief Web (Humanitarian Analysis), Wire (Crisis Depth), Irrawaddy (Death Toll)
International Observers Give Cover
Delegations from Russia, China, India, Vietnam, among others arrived ahead of the December 28 elections, with 162 international observers accredited for Phase I. UEC Chairman U Than Soe claimed that foreign recognition meant there was international support for the elections being “free, fair, transparent, and credible.” Observers visited polling stations and reportedly confirmed that things were up to international standards. The UEC hosted an honorary dinner for observers after polling was closed.
Read more: Mizzima (Observer Welcome), Irrawaddy (China Deal), Deccan Herald (Regional Response)
Resistance Push in Katha, Budalin, Yesdashe
Resistance forces entered Katha, Sagaing Region, on January 2 after attacking junta bases, and ongoing clashes in residential areas are forcing more civilian evacuations. The Kachin Independence Army, People’s Defense Forces, and All Burma Students’ Democratic Front were involved in the operation. In Budalin town, resistance groups took over three junta strongpoints on December 30, including the township general administration office and a police station. In Yesdashe Township, the Naypyidaw PDF claims to have killed more than 40 junta troops in attacks on December 30.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Katha), Irrawaddy (Budalin), Myanmar Now (Naypyidaw PDF), Frontier Myanmar (New Year Offensives), Mizzima (Katha Update)
ASEAN and Regional Powers Tread Carefully
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said that ASEAN leaders will weigh the situation after the elections to avoid giving premature legitimacy to any party. India says that it supports free and inclusive elections and has been keen to distance itself from “Western” geopolitical views, even as it supports democratic transitions. China, having invested about $50 billion in Myanmar since 2011, says that peace and stability are critical to its interests.
Read more: Straits Times (ASEAN Response), WKZO (Malaysia Position), Deccan Herald (India China Balance)
Census May Shape Future More Than Election
The junta is running a nationwide census alongside the election in a possible attempt to manufacture legitimacy. The census will be used to map political recognition, citizenship, representation, land ownership, and legal rights, making it a powerful political tool. The planned enumeration risks excluding populations, particularly the Rohingya, and could codify their marginalization and statelessness. More than three million people have been internally displaced because of the fighting, and many Rohingya are stuck in Bangladeshi refugee camps. Exclusion from the census could solidify their absence in the political processes.
Read more: Weekly Blitz
Economic Outlook Stays Bleak
The World Bank is saying we should expect a 2.0% contraction in GDP for FY2025/26, as more than 80% of the population continues to face chronic poverty. Peace negotiations are still stalled, and resistance leaders are, for the time being, not accepting offers for terms. China says that it supports continued stability and wants a resumption in Belt and Road projects after the election.
Read more: Relief Web (Economic Projections), Irrawaddy (2026 Outlook), ANI News (Assistance Needs)
Infrastructure Progress on Keng Kham Dam
On January 2, Union Minister U Min Naung and Colonel Sein Win ran an inspection of the Keng Kham dam project in southern Shan State and declared that it is almost finished. The dam is designed to store 350,000-acre feet of water and produce 24 million kilowatt hours of electricity yearly, with a capacity of 10 megawatts. Turbine Units 1 and 2 are running under trial conditions. The dam’s water release will improve output from the Zawgyi and Myogyi dams, supporting irrigation for about 120,000 acres of farmland.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar
Investment Climate Sanction Risks
Limited Western normalization is expected after the election. Japan-based investors are risking elevated sanctions risks because of connections to state-linked entities. The election outcome would suggest that the country will continue to be run under a system of tight political control, low odds of reform, and a continued disconnect with Western governance expectations. Sanctions from the US and EU will likely continue to weigh on the economy, and will require due diligence overhead from firms that want to get involved with either trade or investment. ASEAN is likely to continue pressing ahead with trade facilitation and energy services, mostly via ties with Chinese companies.
Read more: Meyka (Investment Analysis), ABC News (PR Efforts), New Indian Express (China Investment)
Bamboo Housing for Low Cost, High Durability
We close this week with a cool story about some neat housing. Blue Temple architecture studio has partnered up with Housing Now to develop low-cost bamboo homes that are designed to beat natural disasters. Each earthquake-resistant home can be built in seven days and costs only about a thousand bucks.
Read more: Dezeen
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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