Myanmar 20260512

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

May 12, 2026

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ASEAN Peace Plan Officially Moribund

Five years in, ASEAN's Myanmar peace plan is officially "moribund," and everyone at the 48th Summit in Cebu apparently said so out loud. Philippine President Marcos called it a "thorny problem" with no clear solutions, said the closed-door retreat got occasionally "emotional," and admitted members had reached a "tacit agreement" to let foreign ministers go feel out new approaches, though he stopped well short of calling it a breakthrough. Thailand's foreign minister proposed inviting his Myanmar counterpart to a meeting in July; Singapore objected to him showing up in person. Malaysia's Mohamad Hasan said atrocities were still happening and the junta hadn't earned its seat back, a position Indonesia and Singapore reportedly share. The junta responded by accusing unnamed members of "discriminatory measures" and interference in internal affairs, and insisted "the majority" of ASEAN had welcomed its recent moves.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (Thailand's proposal reception), The Irrawaddy (junta's election claim), DVB (protest groups' demands), PIA Philippines (Marcos), Philippine Inquirer (Thailand's congratulations)

Fifty Grand a Month to Launder a Junta

Roger Stone, convicted felon, Trump confidante, and now registered foreign agent for Myanmar's military, is pulling $50,000 a month to help rebuild relations between Washington and a regime that UN investigators say has "substantial evidence" of war crimes and crimes against humanity stacked against it. FARA filings show Stone consulting through DCI Group on "public affairs services" for the ministry of information, with a brief for trade, natural resources, and humanitarian relief. The contract comes at a time that Min Aung Hlaing, the general who led the 2021 coup, was appointed president last month after elections that were almost universally dismissed as a sham. In March, more than 450 people were killed in air and drone strikes, the deadliest month for civilians since resistance to the coup began.

Proof of Life, Please

Kim Aris says he hasn't heard from his mother in two years, the last contact a heavily censored handwritten letter in which she wrote that her cell was extremely hot in summer and very cold in winter. When the junta announced on April 30 that Aung San Suu Kyi, now 80, was being moved to house arrest, he didn't celebrate. The image that came with the announcement was an undated, unlocated photograph (the first public picture in years) of her on a bench, flanked by uniformed men. The embassies of Norway, the UK, Australia, and Switzerland issued coordinated statements on May 5 and 6 demanding family access, legal counsel, medical care, and contact with UN and ASEAN representatives. The Philippines, as 2026 ASEAN chair, pushed Special Envoy Ma Theresa Lazaro to get a direct meeting. A video making the rounds on Facebook as a "recent update" from her lawyer turned out to be an AP clip from April 2021; her legal says they haven't seen her since her trial finished in December 2022.

Read more: DVB (global rallies), AFP (viral video debunked), Mizzima (Win Myint silence), ABC News (Kim Aris appeal)

Spymaster Opens Boys-Only Boarding Schools

Ye Win Oo's first major act as commander-in-chief is a chain of 13 "Youth Education Training Schools" for single males under 19, that will open in June for the 2026-27 academic year in Yangon, Naypyidaw, and eleven other cities including Myitkyina, Lashio, and Sittwe. A May 1 recruitment letter from the Directorate of Public Relations and Psychological Warfare promises a high-school education with an exit ramp into military universities, medical programs, and sergeant-major courses. A source close to the military told DVB the program was originally meant only for the children of serving, retired, and deceased soldiers before the regime opened enrolment to anyone to make sure that it hit its numbers. Appointed by Min Aung Hlaing on March 30, Ye Win Oo is the first intelligence chief to rise to the military's top post; the U.S. Treasury sanctioned him in February 2021 as the regime's "eyes and ears."

A Thousand Boots, Still No Road to Bhamo

More than 1,000 regime troops pushed into Shwegu Township between May 5 and 9, trading heavy casualties with a KIA-PDF coalition that has held the area since martial law was declared on April 23. The likely goal is punching through to relieve the besieged garrison at Bhamo, where the KIA's siege has dragged into a second year. Airstrikes ran in concert with the ground push. The regime's consolation prize came by way of state media, which claimed the 548-kilometer Mandalay-to-Kachin road is open again, and all 12 towns along it are back under military control.

Five Pounds of Ruby for the General

Miners near Mogok dug up an 11,000-carat ruby in mid-April, the second-largest ever pulled from that valley, and it ended up on a table in Min Aung Hlaing's office in Naypyidaw within weeks. The stone, roughly 2.2 kilograms with a purplish-red hue and what the junta's own statement called "exceptionally large, rare, and difficult to find," is considered more valuable than the 21,450-carat record-holder from 1996, thanks to better color and clarity. The rough gem has no official price tag, though conservative per-carat estimates put the floor around $11 million, with the ceiling dependent on whether it gets cut, auctioned, or locked away as a state trophy. Mogok is also where the Ta'ang National Liberation Army ran the mines after capturing the area in July 2024, holding them until a China-brokered ceasefire handed control back to the army late last year. State media ran a front-page photo of the cabinet gathered around the rock.

Read more: AP News (boycott calls), Tippah News (cabinet inspection), GNLM (historical discoveries), The Express ($11M floor), Khmer Times (quality comparison)

General's Son Has a New Corner Office

A 40×60-foot plot in Pyin Oo Lwin's Yatanarpon New City was selling for 20-50 million kyat before Aung Pyae Sone, Min Aung Hlaing's son, took charge of the project. It now commands a price of up to 500 million kyat. The general's son controls housing, water, electricity, and roads for the entire development, which the regime is billing as a "Green and Smart City" built around AI and electronics manufacturing. Local military officers and their wives are reportedly selling forest land under informal contracts to meet demand from speculators, scam syndicates, money launderers, and buyers trying to find refuge from kyat depreciation. Prices across the wider Pyin Oo Lwin market are up about 35 percent since 2024.

Duterte's Docket Inspires a New Filing

A 2023 war crimes complaint against Min Aung Hlaing has been sitting untouched at the Philippine Department of Justice, and survivors from Chin State want the Cebu summit to be the moment that changes. The Chin Human Rights Organisation timed its appeal to the ASEAN reunion, arguing that Rodrigo Duterte's ICC trial in The Hague has given their case new momentum. If Manila was willing to hand over its own former president to an international court, why not pursue a foreign junta chief? The complaint invokes the Philippines' International Humanitarian Law Act and points to the September 2021 killing of Pastor Cung Biak Hum, shot in Thantlang while trying to put out fires set by military operations. Similar cases against Min Aung Hlaing are already open in Argentina, Indonesia, Timor-Leste, and Turkey.

Read more: DVB (ASEAN summit tie-in), Philippine Inquirer (Duterte ICC parallel)

Yadana's Dwindling Wells

Myanmar's energy minister U Ko Ko Lwin met with PTTEP (Thailand)'s chief executive in Naypyidaw on May 8 to pitch drilling new wells at the Yadana gas project, where output has been falling, and tightening security along the Myanmar-Thailand pipeline. It was the second meeting in as many months, after Thai Deputy PM Maris Sangiampongsa brought up the same issue during an April courtesy call on Myanmar's president. The two sides also reviewed the M3 (Aung Thinkha) block and prospects in deepwater offshore projects.

Read more: Nation Thailand (Yadana meeting)

Yangon’s Rising Tariffs

The Finance Ministry’s Notification 49/2026, issued March 30 and effective May 1, raised tariffs on fish and seafood from 5% to 15%, dairy from 3% to 5%, and snacks from 15% to 20%. Electric machinery and motorcycle tire rates were also bumped up.

Read more: VDB Loi (commodity list), VDB Loi (tariff rates)

Newsroom Above the Noodle Stall

Some 60 exiled Myanmar news outlets and more than 200 journalists are crammed into the Thai city of Mae Sot, but their money is running out. US funding cuts in 2025 and Swedish reductions in 2026 took CJ Platform from 17 staff down to six, as salaries were first cut in half, then 70%, before the remaining team gave up their safe houses and moved into the office to sleep. Founder Min Thu Win Htut now checks which Facebook posts have reached monetization every day the moment he opens his eyes. News isn’t a likely path to riches, to be sure.

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