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Modi Buys the Bridge, Resistance Owns the River
Min Aung Hlaing got to New Delhi on May 30 for a five-day state visit and left with what junta media said was the biggest diplomatic breakthrough of his presidency. He left with full state honors from Modi, a rare earths deal, a rupee-kyat currency settlement agreement, and renewed commitments to two infrastructure projects that have been collecting dust for years. The problem with the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project is that Chin State's Paletwa, the route's key transit point, has been held by the Arakan Army since January 2024. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway runs through Sagaing, where resistance forces are formidable, and contested parts of Karen State. The rare earths deal has the same sort of shape to it. The accessible dysprosium and terbium deposits are in Kachin State's Pangwa-Chipwi belt, under control of the Kachin Independence Army since October 2024, and the ore currently runs to Yunnan processors under a KIA-structured deal. India has spent about $340 million on Kaladan over two decades and it still isn’t done.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (pre-monsoon offensive), The Diplomat (Neighborhood First policy), DVB (U.S. sanctions risk), DVB (northeast India dissent)
Old Dog Learns New Tricks
Much news this week recapping the election story (again). The usual summary, but for those who haven’t been keeping up: Aung Hlaing hung up his uniform in exchange for a longyi on April 10 when he made himself president. That was after elections in which the military-proxy USDP took 339 of 420 contested seats AND awarded themselves 25 percent of parliamentary seats. That gave military-aligned lawmakers more than 86 percent of the new legislature. Turnout in the election was 54 percent, but the National League for Democracy had been dissolved and voting was canceled in many conflict areas across the country. The commander-in-chief title was given to General Ye Win Oo, a former intelligence chief. Aung San Suu Kyi was (reportedly) moved from prison to house arrest after (reportedly) meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group: "The uniforms may have changed to civilian clothes, but this is not a political transition."
Read more: East Asia Forum (Myitsone Dam revival), International Crisis Group (economic crisis), DVB (food insecurity), The Diplomat (junta propaganda machine), Foreign Policy (China's role)
Junta Hires Roger Stone as Beijing Hauls Tungsten
Roger Stone continues to rake in $50,000 a month from the junta's lobbying budget. He was brought on as a consultant to DCI Group, which signed a $3 million, one-year contract with Naypyitaw's Information Ministry in mid-2025 to rebuild ties with the Trump administration around trade, natural resources, and humanitarian relief. The pitch is that Washington gets rare earths diverted away from China, and the junta gets rehabilitated. Marco Rubio told a House panel that Beijing holds "tremendous" influence over the regime, said Myanmar was "a hard nut to crack," and said only "baby steps" were realistic. He’s right, and there might be a case for moving faster. A Chinese mining company working with the United Wa State Army has been running tungsten out of Shan State's Mong Ton Township since February. The product gets moved through Tachileik and Mong Phyak to Mongla on the Chinese border. Wang Yi received the junta's foreign minister Tin Maung Swe, himself a former ambassador to Beijing, in the Chinese capital on Friday and restated his terms. He wants continued Belt and Road progress and safety guarantees for Chinese staff in-country.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Rubio quotes, Wang Yi), The Irrawaddy (DCI contract, Stone)
A Fifth of the Map and a Full Air Force
The junta controls 21 percent of Myanmar's territory against resistance forces that control about 42 percent. On Saturday, four airstrikes on Mahlaing Township's Thayetkaung Pin village killed five civilians and wounded 15. Three of the dead were teenagers walking home from a weekend class. The same night near Kyaukphyu, a Y-12 transport modified for combat dropped eight bombs on three villages. The strike wounded a 12-year-old girl and two elderly residents, gutted a family home, and killed three cows and two pigs. Since the 2021 coup, Insecurity Insight has reported almost 2,000 attacks on health care facilities. Min Aung Hlaing announced his "100-day peace plan" on April 20, but DVB says at least 149 people have been killed by regime aerial attacks since.
Read more: Asia Times (territorial control), DVB (post-April 20 toll), Narinjara (Kyaukphyu strike), ReliefWeb (healthcare attacks)
Beijing Plays All Sides of the Border Fence
Wang Yi went to Naypyidaw in April to reaffirm Beijing's support for Min Aung Hlaing's new presidency, with the usual script of stability, sovereignty, and friendship on the agenda. What was less prominent in the announcements was that Beijing has been keeping its own channels open with the ethnic armed groups that control Kachin State's rare-earth deposits, particularly around Chipwi and Pangwa. The mines are in Myanmar, but processing, pricing, and downstream industrial power all run through China.
Read more: East Asia Forum (CMEC joint security), East Asia Forum (Modi meeting, ASEAN exclusion)
Resistance Takes Roadshow to Ottawa, Canberra
NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung wrapped up a cross-country Canadian tour on June 3 and pitched the newly forged SCEF alliance to Parliamentary Secretary Robert Oliphant after stops in Toronto and Vancouver. The Steering Committee for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union binds the NUG and the ousted lawmakers of the CRPH with four ethnic armed organizations, including the KNU and KIO. The delegation has now introduced the coalition in Washington, Tokyo, and Istanbul. SCEF representatives briefed envoys from 24 countries at a Bangkok session on Friday. In Australia, Aung San Suu Kyi's youngest son Kim Aris made his first visit to the country on June 4 and called for independently verified proof that his mother is still alive.
Read more: DVB (SCEF member organizations), Mizzima (Bangkok briefing), DVB (Kim Aris demand)
Arakan Army Takes a Headcount in Maungdaw
Village administrators connected to the Arakan Army have started collecting names of Rohingya residents aged between 18 and 30 in Maungdaw Township. They're using household registration documents to create lists (for as-yet-unrevealed reasons) in villages including Paungzar, Hla Baw Zar, Kyauk Hla Ka, and Mingalar Gyi. Some young people who previously joined armed groups have gone missing for long stretches without a word, and residents say anxiety over the registration is pushing youth to sneak out of their villages before the next gang comes knocking.
Read more: Muslim Network TV
Tourist Visas, Drone Lessons, Mizoram Detour
India's NIA has asked a Delhi court for voice samples from Matthew Aaron Van Dyke, a US citizen, and six Ukrainian nationals who were arrested under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act over a (purported) plan to train Myanmar's ethnic armed groups in drone warfare, assembly, and jamming. The case was filed March 13 after the group reportedly flew in on tourist visas, made their way to Mizoram, and then went into Myanmar without permits. The agency also wants its investigation window extended from 90 to 180 days, saying forensic work on seized devices and a trace of the money trail is still ongoing. The next hearing is July 2.
Read more: ANI News
Junta's Plainclothes Dragnet Tightens in Kalay
For about three months, junta forces in plainclothes have been working Kalay Township in Sagaing. Reports say they’re using unmarked vehicles to grab solo travelers and young adults off roads, from near hotels, and at bus terminals, before shipping them to the Central Regional Training Center 10 for redistribution to military camps nationwide. On June 6, the Kalay Public Strike Steering Committee told residents to avoid Bogyoke Road and the Sanpya intersection, steer clear of bus terminals, and to never travel alone.
Read more: Mizzima
Naypyidaw Calls Moscow to Reboot the Servers
Yatanarpon Cyber City, the junta's Silicon Valley fantasy planted near Pyin Oo Lwin in the mid-2000s, has found a new patron in Russia. Cut off from Western technology and apparently unwilling to fall fully into Beijing's arms, the military is now working on the project through a Moscow partnership that's built on surveillance tech and digital sovereignty. The campus has been stalled for the better part of two decades, hobbled by patchy electricity, sanctions, and the (tiny?) problem that it’s difficult to find investors for a military-run tech park.
Read more: The Diplomat
Yangon Throws a Travel Expo, State Department Sends Regrets
Myanmar's tourism ministry is pitching Bagan, Mandalay, and Inle Lake to ASEAN buyers and European operators at an International Travel Expo in Yangon this June. It's being billed as the country's most ambitious comeback push since the pandemic/ 2021 coup. The U.S. State Department still has Myanmar at Level 4 "Do Not Travel," and Australia says the security picture is still unpredictable even in major cities. The EU extended its sanctions in April over human rights violations. Strange times to be making a strong travel pitch, but A for effort?
Read more: Eturbonews
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back- hit reply and tell us what you think.
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