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World Court to Rule on Rohingya Genocide
The International Court of Justice will hand down its ruling about whether Myanmar’s 2017 crackdown on the Rohingya was genocide on November 19. The case, brought to the court by The Gambia under the Genocide Convention, has been in front of the judges for seven years. Myanmar, of course, denies genocide, and the court really doesn’t have any mechanism to enforce its ruling, whatever it might be. Rights advocates are also trying to press the Philippines (the current ASEAN chair) to keep Min Aung Hlaing away from the ASEAN summit in Manila which is will run from November 16 to 18.
Read more: Myanmar Now (the ruling), Special Advisory Council (ASEAN summit)
China Presses Junta to Speed Up Kyaukphyu Projects
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is putting heat on the junta to move faster on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and do more to protect Chinese nationals. He delivered the message to Investment Minister Aung Kyaw Hoe at a Lancang-Mekong meeting in Beijing, a message that was similar to the demands that Xi Jinping's made to Min Aung Hlaing in June. Beijing's priority projects include the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and a railway that passes through Mandalay and Muse on the way to Yunnan, but fighting is ongoing along much of the planned route.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Wang Yi's demands), The Irrawaddy (China ties)
FATF Gives Until February to Fix Money Controls
The Financial Action Task Force is giving the junta until February to fix its weak anti-money-laundering controls or it’s going to be slapped with further measures. Myanmar has been on the watchdog's blacklist (alongside other stalwarts Iran and North Korea) since 2022. The listing brings extra scrutiny to any and all financial transactions with the country. Rumor was that Japan was pushing to get Myanmar off the list, but Japan's Finance Ministry denies that and says it made no request at the FATF's Paris meeting. Separately, Thailand is backing the junta’s bid to join the Egmont Group, an organization that allows financial intelligence units to share data on suspicious transactions and cross-border money flows. A joint statement resulting from Min Aung Hlaing’s visit says that Bangkok will share information with the junta’s anti-money-laundering authorities and help to train them.
Read more: SCMP (business impact), DVB (Japan denial), The Irrawaddy (Egmont)
Junta Pays Foreign Debt Down to $10.8B
Myanmar's foreign debt went down from $13.5 billion in 2021 to $10.8 billion in 2025 (newer numbers are not yet available). The junta owes the World Bank and theIMF $3.8 billion. Japan and China are its biggest government creditors. Regular payments have halved the debt owed to China to about $1.5 billion, but that’s made cash needed for imports harder to come by. Deputy finance minister Kyaw Htin told lawmakers that (new) expected funding from China, India and Russia never arrived, leaving the regime forced to accept short-term export credit from Belarus.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Kyat Slide Disrupts Thai Border Trade
Some Myawaddy traders and money changers are putting a pause on transactions as the kyat has weakened past 4,900 to the US dollar, down from about 4,400 in early October. Market insiders blame the regime's plan to borrow 2.1 trillion kyats from the central bank in order to plug its budget gap. Importers say their margins are shrinking but higher prices could crush already weak demand. Transport costs are also pushing prices up, and at least one trader says that’s having more of an impact than the exchange rate, but surely the one-two punch isn’t helping anyone.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Unilever to Sell Venture Stake to Local Partner
Unilever is selling its stake in Unilever EAC Myanmar to Centig Holding, an affiliate of its local partner Europe and Asia Commercial Company. The price was not disclosed. The home and personal care products venture started in 2017, and the sale is expected to close sometime next year, subject to regulatory approval.
Read more: Reuters (deal details), Cosmetics Business (operations)
NUG Says Trade-First Strategy Won't Bring Peace
NUG deputy foreign minister David Gum Awng says Washington's trade-first strategy will not be able to bring lasting peace so long as military rule continues. The US embassy plan that’s been shared so far prioritizes scam crackdowns, trade (including of rare earths minerals) but makes no mention of the NUG. The US plan intends to try for at least three deals that would be worth more than $5 million each, a tripling of the current volume of US goods imports, and a peace agreement by 2030. Gum Awng, unsurprisingly, is calling on Washington to work with “federal democratic forces.”
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Washington's plan), DVB (strategy gaps)
Junta Sets April 4 By-Elections for 55 Seats
The junta's election commission has scheduled by-elections for 55 seats on April 4. Some seats became/ were left open when winners took government jobs, and others are in places that were excluded from the general election, including towns that the military has retaken since the election. The USDP and its allies claimed almost nine in ten elected seats in the election, and military appointees hold a quarter of each national chamber. Fighting continues in Indaw, one of the towns that’s scheduled to participate in the April vote.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (seat list), ABC News (election context), TBS News (vote schedule)
Only 15K Migrants in Thailand Sought Its ID
Only about 15,000 migrants in Thailand have applied for the junta's Certificate of Identity since October 14, according to Labor Minister Maung Myint. The regime was expecting as many as 5,000 applications a day. A migrant workers' committee says it was able to collect more than two million signatures asking the NUG to issue documents instead. Workers say a certificate costs more than 5,000 baht when broker fees are added on, which is a cost that’s nearly twice the official price.
Read more: DVB
Dhaka Confirms Talks With AA on Rohingya Return
Bangladesh is talking directly with the Arakan Army about Rohingya repatriation even as it continues talks with the junta. State minister Shama Obaed Islam said it would be naive to expect normal diplomatic channels to secure returns and warned of widespread opposition inside Myanmar. The Arakan Army is in control of 14 of Rakhine's 17 townships, leaving the military limited to operations in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung.
Read more: DVB (territorial control), New Age (repatriation strategy)
RSF Closes Chiang Mai Equipment Center for Exiled Journalists
Reporters Without Borders is closing its Chiang Mai equipment center for exiled journalists after passing out 67 laptops and 50 smartphones over two years. The group says that it has supported more than 500 Myanmar journalists since the 2021 coup but has now decided to focus its efforts on shortwave radio broadcasts.
Read more: RSF
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back- hit reply and tell us what you think.
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Thank you — the pairing in this edition deserves pressing. On your account, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is giving Myanmar until February to fix weak anti-money-laundering controls or face further measures, Japan's Finance Ministry denies it asked for Myanmar's removal from the blacklist, and Thailand is separately backing the junta's bid to join the Egmont Group, whose members share financial intelligence on suspicious transactions. My question is about sequence. Should Egmont admission wait until FATF's February test is met — or can intelligence sharing be justified earlier as the very tool that would let Myanmar meet it?