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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Jockeying Reshapes Party Positioning
DFM in Scam Network Allegations
Crackdown on Foreign Business Violators
Big Money for Phuket Transport Dreams
“Khon La Khrueng Plus” Hits Capacity
Tourism Battles Battered Image
EV Market Edges Past IC
Gaming and the Digital Economy
Cybercrime and Illegal Website Crackdown Expands
Monetary Policy Remains Accommodative
Credit Crunch Drives Mortgage Rejections
Gold Prices to Soar Through 2026
Sustainability for Batteries and Aviation
Trade and Investment: KR, PE
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Jockeying Reshapes Party Positioning
Former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigned as Pheu Thai Party leader on October 22 after her removal from the PM’s office by the Constitutional Court for ethical misconduct. The resignations are the result of a party overhaul as bigwigs try to position themselves ahead of expected elections in March 2026. The party is considering non-Shinawatra candidates like Varawut Silpa-archa to refresh its image. Pheu Thai is expected to struggle to win outright and may finish as poorly as even third or fourth place. New PM Anutin Charnvirakul has confirmed that the House of Representatives will be dissolved in January as part of a political deal, and the Democrats have brought Abhisit Vejjajiva back as leader to try and rebuild credibility.
Read more: Xinhua News (Resignation), Vietnam Plus (Party Overhaul), Bangkok Post (Identity Crisis), Bangkok Post (Market Impact), Bangkok Post (Democrat Revival)
DFM in Scam Network Allegations
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered Deputy Finance Minister Vorapak Tanyawong to clarify (in writing!) allegations connecting him to scam operations after his wife allegedly received $3 million in cryptocurrency tied to a fugitive. Vorapak denies involvement with scams in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, but Whale Hunting has released 84 pages of supporting documentation that is… well… you decided. Meanwhile, the Department of Special Investigation is trying to figure out Prince International, a Thailand-based firm linked to Chen Zhi’s Prince Holding Group - no word on how they’re making out in that endeavor. Anutin also announced planned cooperation with US authorities in tackling cybercrime; American experts are expected to pay a visit after an upcoming APEC meeting.
Read more: Whale Hunting (Evidence), FX Leaders (Crypto Holdings), Nation Thailand (Clarification Order), Nation Thailand (DSI Probe),
Crackdown on Foreign Business Violators
The Royal Thai Police, perhaps sensing blood in the water, have increased checks on foreigners on Koh Samui and Koh Phangan after the “discovery” of several legal violations, including nominee businesses and unauthorized work. Authorities found at least five buildings that were built illegally in a protected national forest reserve on Koh Phangan, and have collected evidence of cleared hillsides and groundwater wells, suggesting that more development was anticipated. Surat Thani Governor Theerut Supaviboonyaphon told his people to keep digging into violations by foreign nationals, and Labour Minister Treenuch Thienthong is pushing for a tourist high-season crackdown on illegal foreign tour guides.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Police Checks), Malay Mail (Forest Violations), Nation Thailand (Tour Guide Ban)
Big Money for Phuket Transport Dreams
Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn wants to make Phuket the main transport hub of the Andaman region, imagining nine big infrastructure projects totaling 130 billion baht. The Kathu-Patong Tunnel (16.76 billion baht) would reduce travel time from the airport from the current ~ 1 hour to just 20 minutes. An envisioned Muang Mai-Koh Kaew-Kathu Expressway would require almost 47 billion baht. A 46-billion-baht Light Rail Transit system from Phuket airport to Chalong Intersection and Phase 2 of Phuket Airport Development are expected to increase the airport’s capacity from 12.5 million to 18 million annual passengers. An Andaman Port project would connect Krabi, Phangnga, and Phuket, and include a new cruise terminal for large vessels. Phuket Chamber of Commerce president Kongsak Khoopongsakorn says he wants development urgently because of the cost of Phuket’s currently crushing traffic problem.
Read more: Bangkok Post
“Khon La Khrueng Plus” Hits Capacity
The government’s “Khon La Khrueng Plus” (roughly, “half and half”) co-payment scheme hit its capacity of 20 million users on the first day of registration. More than 13 million people signed within the first two hours. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithaprapas said that while the first phase might not expand because of budget constraints, phase two, which would prioritize those who missed out this time, is planned for January. More than 300,000 shops have registered in the program, which runs from October 29 to December 31, 2025. The scheme covers food delivery orders from November 7, with commission fee reductions for participating restaurants. There are also tax deductions of up to 20,000 baht available for those who spend on domestic travel.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Phase 2 Plans), Bangkok Post (Registration Rush), Bangkok Post (Shop Registration), Bangkok Post (Transport Expansion), Bangkok Post (Small Business Impact), Travel and Tour World (Impact, Tax Deduction)
Tourism Battles Battered Image
Former Tourism Authority of Thailand governor Yuthasak Supasorn wants action to burnish the tourism sector’s tarnished image and safety perception deficits. Tourist arrivals are down 7.56% and revenue dropped 5.85% so far this year. The International Air Transport Association says that rising aviation service fees, including a (repeatedly) proposed (and then delayed) 300-baht “tourism tax” and higher airport charges, are likely to hamper a recovery if they come into effect. The Tourism Authority has launched an “Amazing Thailand Passport Privileges 2025” campaign starting in November and running through the end of the year to highlight more than 300 businesses offering discounts. Travel operator TUI is increasing winter flight operations to Phuket beginning November 2, expecting 61,000 additional European visitors between November and next April, with the tempo of daily flights rising from a low season 280-300 to as many as 400 (which would be an average of more than 16 flights an hour).
Read more: Bangkok Post (Recovery Measures), Bangkok Post (Fee Concerns), Travel and Tour World (Passport Privileges), Travel and Tour World (TUI Flights)
EV Market Edges Past IC
Battery electric vehicle sales almost doubled year-on-year in September, grabbing an 18.8% market share and passing the number of internal combustion engine vehicles (18.7%) for the first time. The Federation of Thai Industries expects domestic car sales to total 600,000 vehicles for 2025, up from 572,000 last year. BYD wants the government to extend its soon-to-end EV incentive program to further support the industry. BYD says the program is needed to keep domestic car sales moving and is calling on local auto parts manufacturers to adapt to EV production needs.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Sales Projections), Bangkok Post (BYD Incentives)
Gaming and the Digital Economy
The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society is using the Gaming Industry Promotion Act to try to promote Thailand as a Southeast Asian gaming hub. The local gaming industry is valued at more than 35 billion baht, and Thailand is ranked third globally in the number of gamers with more than 32 million players (Ed.: not sure this is a feather in the national cap). The global gaming market is valued at $300 billion, that figure is expected to more than double over the next five years. In news from a different form of “gaming,” the Prime Minister has reversed a previous legalization effort by reinstating a nationwide ban on poker, nullifying a brief decriminalization that began at the end of July.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Gaming Hub), World Casino Directory (Poker Ban), Bangkok Post (Digital Platform Fees)
Cybercrime and Illegal Website Crackdown Expands
The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society has identified more than 400,000 “illegal” URLs pointing to sites that offer gambling, e-cigarettes, and alcohol advertisements. The number of illegal gambling websites has exploded from 62,213 in 2024 to 307,538 now. Authorities say they pulled apart a few big gambling networks that had annual cash flows of more than 15 billion baht, with the “APP.789HENG” network allegedly moving most of that through 44 bank accounts. The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission is putting stricter measures on overseas text messages, blocking more than 1 million scam messages daily since early October. Telecom operators are now required to categorize senders of A2P SMS messages and set up firewalls for screening “risky” international messages.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Website Crackdown), Vietnam Plus (Text Messages), Nation Thailand (Telecom Measures)
Monetary Policy Remains Accommodative
The Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee voted 5-2 early this month to keep the one-day repurchase rate steady at 1.50%, prioritizing accommodative measures to support an economic recovery. The central bank cut the key rate four times over the past year in response to headwinds, including US tariffs, sky-high household debt, and a gravity-defying baht. Economic growth predictions are expected at 2.2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, after a lower-than-expected growth rate of 2.5% last year. Once again, very interesting to compare these numbers with those coming out of Vietnam. New Governor Vitai Ratanakorn is hinting at rate cuts to improve (read: increase) inflation and stoke growth. The next policy review is scheduled for December 17. Reports are that foreign investors are underweighting Thai stocks for now because of uncertainties related to the anticipated March elections.
Read more: Trading View (Policy Minutes), Trading View (Stance)
Credit Crunch Drives Mortgage Rejections
The mortgage rejection rate has risen to 80% from a low of about 30% during the pandemic. The rise has hampered home ownership rates and developer growth. High household debt levels are still worrisome, at last report, just under 87% . Interestingly, banks are now evaluating the financial health of an applicant’s employer, with companies that find themselves in a declining industry being flagged for review. This cautious approach comes as a result of past blunders where lenient loan approvals led to losses during economic downturns. Poor credit histories and the fluctuating incomes of “freelancers” and the self-employed are also leading to more scrutiny.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Gold Prices to Soar Through 2026
YLG Group forecasts continued bullish momentum for the price of gold over the next two years because of continued central bank buying, inflation, geopolitical, and trade tensions. Gold has risen 64% under the current US Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle, a figure much higher than the typical 32% average increase over two years. YLG forces gold prices at $4,435-4,900 per ounce, with domestic prices ranging from 68,500–75,700 baht per baht-weight. Gold Traders Association president Jitti Tangsithpakdi thinks gold may hit $4,500 an ounce domestically, saying that spot gold could fetch $5,000 an ounce next year. Goldman Sachs has updated its December 2026 forecast to $4,900 an ounce because of expected rate cuts and high global economic uncertainty, reinforcing demand for a safe-haven asset.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Sustainability for Batteries and Aviation
A growing battery waste crisis is brewing as more than 600,000 EVs were registered between 2020 and 2024, leading to an expected 38,000 tonnes of EV waste batteries by 2031 and a possible 900,000 tonnes by 2045. TDRI is calling for legislation on proper battery management that would hold producers accountable and create a “Battery Passport” for tracking. Separately, Thailand is expected to release its first national standard for sustainable aviation fuel specifications by early next year.
Read more: TDRI (Battery Waste), Travel and Tour World (Aviation Fuel)
Trade and Investment: KR, PE
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul shook hands on doubling bilateral trade and investment from $15 billion to $30 billion last week, with both leaders calling for a quick finish to Free Trade Agreement negotiations. Thailand is also finalizing an upgraded free trade agreement with Peru that’s expected to wrap up by the end of the year. Bilateral trade through August with that nation totaled $362 million.
Read more: OAN (South Korea), Bangkok Post (Peru FTA)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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