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Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Apr 17, 2026

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Headlines:

Stagflation Knocks, Treasury Scrambles

Songkran Under Smoke

Money Walks as Anutin Reaches for the Wallet

Section 112's Long Shadow

RSVP to the Generals' Ball

Hat in Hand in Washington

Tourism's Patience Runs Dry

Five Days, 191 Gone

Steel Mill Gets the Permanent Red Card

Bangkok's Control Room Gets an Upgrade

Stagflation Knocks, Treasury Scrambles

Kasikorn Research Centre expects the country to slip into stagflation by late Q2 or early Q3 as oil prices averaging $90 per barrel choke growth and stoke inflation. The think tank dropped its GDP forecast to 1.2% from 1.9% and pushed its inflation call up to 3%, in light of its view that diesel subsidies can't hold much longer given the government’s fiscal capacity. The real headache is that the Oil Fuel Fund now needs a 150 billion baht ($4.1 billion) loan guarantee that would by itself add about one percentage point to public debt, putting the ratio uncomfortably close to the 70% ceiling at 69.7%, a level that wasn't supposed to be met until fiscal 2028. The whole fiscal roadmap, written when oil traded at $60-70, is having to get re-evaluated day-by-day.

Read more: Bangkok Post (oil price), Bangkok Post (debt ceiling)

Songkran Under Smoke

Northern Thailand declared an environmental emergency on April 13 because of 2,165 active wildfire hotspots in 17 provinces. 25,000 firefighters and helicopter water drops were directed at blazes climbing toward the summit of Doi Luang Chiang Dao. PM2.5 levels in Chiang Rai went up to 188.7 micrograms per cubic meter, five times the “safe” level, and Chiang Mai reportedly peaked above 900 during the Songkran travel window. The timing couldn't be worse as hospitality operators said that nearly half of all mid-April bookings in Chiang Mai were cancelled, and the Tourism Authority cut its international arrival target (again) for the fiscal year by almost a fifth. The haze isn't new, of course, it just seems like it is becoming a bigger deal. Nationwide hotspots from December through mid-April were up 25 percent year-on-year to 72,527, most of them in protected forests where enforcement is patchy and farmers still find fire to be the least expensive way to clear land, tourism and health be damned.

Read more: Bangkok Post (hotspots), Travel and Tour World (clinic data)

Money Walks as Anutin Reaches for the Wallet

Foreign investors yanked $823 million from Thai equities and $705 million from bonds in March, a reversal of the $1.7 billion that flowed into stocks during the month of February. The outflows arrived as PM Anutin Charnvirakul's election win briefly resurrected market confidence. Anutin told reporters Wednesday the government is considering a new cost-of-living relief plan, including electricity subsidies for households that use less than 200 kWh monthly. He also thanked the public for cutting oil consumption enough to keep reserves in check.

Read more: Nation Thailand (PM quotes), Islam Times (debt vulnerability)

Section 112's Long Shadow

The Supreme Court will meet April 24 to decide whether to take up a case against 44 former Move Forward Party MPs who proposed amending the lese-majeste law in 2021. Ten of those MPs now serve under the People's Party banner, and if the court accepts the petition, they could be suspended from their parliamentary duties. People's Party deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul said the party's leadership selection is on hold until the court hands down a ruling. The legal team is working through roughly 1,000 pages of court documents. Losing 10 sitting MPs would thin the opposition's bench and further but a chill on any future attempts to touch the Section 112 live-wire.

RSVP to the Generals' Ball

Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara showed up at Min Aung Hlaing's presidential inauguration on April 10, bringing congratulations from both Thailand’s prime minister and foreign minister, as well as offering the usual promises of better cooperation on security and economic matters. The ceremony in Naypyidaw installed the Burmese general who led the 2021 coup into a five-year presidential term after an election the UN and rights groups called neither free nor fair, and which had been boycotted by Aung San Suu Kyi's party. Thailand continues to publicly reaffirm its commitment to stability and shared prosperity with its neighbor.

Read more: Bangkok Post (envoy details), Khaosod English (election criticism)

Hat in Hand in Washington

Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas met the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 14, pitching American companies on Thailand investment opportunities and getting a blunt read on the uncomfortable new trade reality. The Chamber's take is that reciprocal trade taxes will become the "new normal" over the next two to three years, and Bangkok should keep talking if it wants to lock in policy clarity before the rules firm up. Ekniti promised administrative stability and an upgrade for Thai technical and workforce skills, two things that have become baseline asks from American investors. The Chamber said that Thailand remains important to U.S. business interests and talked up future investment, which is the diplomatic version of "we'll see."

Tourism's Patience Runs Dry

The tourism industry went public with its frustration this week, calling out the government for its lack of clear policies to fix both debt burdens that have hamstrung SMEs as well as persistently weak tourism demand. Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said small operators are getting squeezed by energy costs that have reduced consumer spending power, and many have already become non-performing borrowers that are unable to grow. The Tourism Council's Chai Arunanondchai said businesses will adjust, but the government needs to deliver concrete action on debt resolution and infrastructure bottlenecks at airports and second-tier cities during the rest of its term. With the fiscal roadmap already under strain (see the first story, above), more spending on tourism relief isn't going to come easily.

Five Days, 191 Gone

The Songkran holiday killed 191 people in 951 traffic accidents between April 10 and 14. Speeding and drink-driving, as usual this time of year, were the main culprits. Bangkok tallied the highest death toll at 16. The total number is down about a quarter from last year's 253 deaths, though April 14 saw 30 people killed in 192 crashes. Most victims were between 20 and 29 years old.

Steel Mill Gets the Permanent Red Card

Industrial regulators shut down BNS Steel Group for good, because of “unauthorized operations,” “substandard products,” and “dodgy waste handling.” The company kept running even after its factory license was pulled in May 2025, then tried to fire up new machinery this April in defiance of a 2025 rule banning new or expanded capacity for rebar and billet production. The closure is the first time authorities have swung that regulatory axe to pull the plug on a facility, setting a precedent the ministry says other violators should now expect.

Bangkok's Control Room Gets an Upgrade

The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society is rewriting its five-year plan to try and set itself up as the hub for national cybersecurity, disaster response, and digital governance. Minister Chaichanok Chidchob said that his ministry is creating a deputy minister role for the first time (to be filled by Bhumjaithai MP Boonthida Somchai), and taking the Digital Government Agency back from oversight of the Prime Minister's Office. The ministry wants to present a "Thailand First" positioning for foreign investment in data centers and cloud systems, which apparently will require investors to explain "tangible benefits" and "clear development roadmaps", for Thailand. Both of those, for now, remain undefined.

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