Thailand 20260619

Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Jun 19, 2026

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The $300 Billion Question

Thailand has joined the UN conciliation process Cambodia launched earlier this month, and in the process has appointed German jurist Rüdiger Wolfrum and South African maritime law expert Albert Hoffman as its representatives. The move is after Bangkok walked away from the 2001 bilateral framework that had governed the dispute for two decades. Conciliators from both sides now have 30 days to meet and pick a chair before proceedings begin. At stake is an estimated $300 billion worth of oil and gas under about 26,000 square kilometers of Gulf seabed, including about 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Phnom Penh said that Bangkok's participation is "welcome."

A Shortcut With Questions

A government-appointed review panel has until the end of July to share recommendations on the $30.5 billion Land Bridge, a project that PM Anutin Charnvirakul has made a priority since taking office in April. The project, as envisioned, would connect deep-sea ports in Chumphon and Ranong by way of a 90-kilometer rail and highway corridor. The government says it could cut up to 14 days off trips between southern China and the Indian Ocean and reduce logistics costs by almost a third. The closure in the Strait of Hormuz gave Bangkok a new geopolitical hook to resurrect the project, but it still faces the same economic doubts that held it back in the past. Ships would have to offload containers, truck (or send by train) them across the peninsula, and reload them, all to skip a strait near Singapore that, for the most part, works fine. Investors are cautious on the price tag. Communities around Ranong say they have been told almost nothing, and regulators have asked for a new Environmental and Health Impact Assessment before anything breaks ground.

Read more: Anewz TV (TEU capacity), Container News (Hormuz angle), Stratnewsglobal (Singapore comparison)

Growth Without Paychecks

Thai household income fell for the first time in six years during 2025, dropping 2.5% to 28,308 baht a month, according to SCB EIC. The decline was driven by a 4.8% drop in earned income. That means that homes are bringing home less from wages and work than they used to. Interestingly, there were differences by income level. Three-fifths of households earning under 15,000 baht a month now lean on financial assistance that covers everything from old-age allowances, disability payments, and transfers from relatives who live outside the home. That assistance income rose almost a full fifth between 2023 and 2025. GDP per capita has risen from 221,195 baht in 2016 to 288,315 baht in 2025 (3% annually increase vs headline GDP growth averaging 1.1%), so the economy is technically growing but the gains aren't finding their way to the people doing the earning. More than half of indebted households say their income is not enough to cover basic expenses, and inflation is expected to pick up in 2026.

A New Tax Era

The era of ultra-low tax rates for large multinationals is coming to an end in Thailand, as the cabinet has approved a 15% global minimum tax. The change means Thailand can no longer rely on ultra-low tax rates to attract large multinationals. Instead, many BOI incentives will need to be replaced with subsidies and tax credits that will comply with OECD rules. To cushion the blow, the cabinet also cut electronic withholding tax from as much as 5% down to 1% until December 2027. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas is making changes to the Revenue Code, and the BOI's Competitiveness Enhancement Fund remains on standby as a backstop for investors. The Finance Ministry expects the withholding cut to free up about 27 billion baht in private-sector liquidity.

A Tale of Two Economies

S&P Global shared an upbeat tone on Thailand this week, keeping the country's BBB+ sovereign rating and stable outlook in place as it said that it expects to see 2% GDP growth this year. The agency also expects per capita income to go up from $8,000 to $9,000 as the baht gets stronger. The Federation of Thai Industries spent the week explaining why that math feels optimistic from the view on the factory floor. The Thai Industries Sentiment Index dropped to 84.7 in May, a 48-month low, as non-tech manufacturers are losing ground to cheap imports and shoppers are choosing foreign appliances, clothes, and furniture instead of local goods. SME loan grants are down 4% year-on-year in Q1 as banks remain cautious on lending.

Read more: Bangkok Post (BBB+ rating), Bangkok Post (chip workforce gap)

orange temples during daytime — Photo by Alejandro Cartagena 🇲🇽🏳‍🌈 on Unsplash

DSI Knocks and the Opposition Cries Payback

DSI officers raided 24 locations in five provinces on June 16, cracking open an alleged forex money-laundering network the department says reaches into politics and entertainment. Operation "Shutdown the Laundering," (hopefully that wan’t the secret codename of the op) was run with the Cyber Police, the Central Institute of Forensic Science and the Bank of Thailand, and led to asset seizures and account freezes in Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan and Samut Sakhon. After investigators teased the initials "P" for an opposition politician and "F" for a male celebrity, People's Party list-MP Pawoot Pongvitayapanu got in front of cameras within hours saying he wasn't involved. Colleague Rangsiman Rome was less coy, suggesting the raids may not have been entirely unrelated to Pawoot’s focus on the 1.6-billion-baht TH-AI Passport procurement job. The full list of names and corporate entities was due this morning at 10 a.m., when Justice Minister Pol Lt Gen Rutthapon Naowarat was expected to hold a DSI briefing.

Read more: Nation Thailand (operation commander), Bangkok Post (TH-AI Passport)

Phuket's Foreign Landlords Get a House Call

The Interior Ministry has told the Department of Lands to take civil and criminal action against more than 200 foreign-connected companies suspected of unlawfully holding Phuket land, including beach plots that lacked clear ownership documents when officials looked at them on Wednesday. The probe also covers possible forest encroachment and illegally issued titles in nearby tourism provinces. In a separate enforcement track, AMLO will auction the 51-meter superyacht Atlas Strider at Phuket Provincial Hall on June 23, with bidding to open at 600 million baht. The vessel was seized from South African financier Benjamin Mauerberger (aka Ben Smith), who faces fraud and money-laundering charges tied to a $410 million seizure order.

Read more: Bangkok Post (Patong zoning), Bangkok Post (Atlas Strider auction), The Star (Mauerberger timeline)

Five Trade Deals and a European Debut

Parliament's joint session approved five trade agreements. The Thailand-EFTA deal is the headline act and the country's first FTA with any European bloc, covering Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. EFTA members will drop tariffs on a range of Thai goods the moment the deal takes effect. A separate pact with Bhutan, also offering immediate zero-duty access, will open a toe-hold into South Asia for exporters of automobiles, processed food, and textiles. The other three agreements upgrade the ASEAN-China trade area, amend the broader ASEAN goods agreement, and ratify the WTO fisheries subsidies protocol. Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said the EFTA deal is groundwork for the longer EU FTA that is still under negotiation, and a step toward eventual OECD membership.

Travel Industry Stays Cautious

Tourist arrivals from the Middle East are down by between a quarter and a third, and the industry isn’t counting on a US-Iran ceasefire to stem the tide. Thai Lion Air has reduced seat capacity by 15% since the Gulf conflict erupted and warns that jet fuel prices, unlike crude, are not going snap back to pre-war levels once a deal is signed. Hotels are in worse shape. Chiang Mai occupancy is running 40-45% this low season, with some properties at 35%, the weakest in years. Even five-star properties, normally insulated, are seeing bookings slide as European and US visitors balk at airfares. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has trimmed its 2026 long-haul target from 11 million visitors to 10 million, while gamely hosting 39 travel companies from the Gulf and Africa at a Bangkok trade meet.

Read more: Bangkok Post (load factor), Travel and Tour World (retail impact), Travel and Tour World (Middle East drop), Travel and Tour World (trade meet)

A Hundred Thousand Baht Gets You a Thai ID

Police arrested eight people in Chiang Rai on Thursday, including three government officials, for selling Thai identity cards to Chinese, Myanmar, Lao and Vietnamese nationals at roughly 100,000 baht a pop. According to police, corrupt officials in Wiang Kaen and three neighboring districts spent 2024 and 2025 issuing “homeless student” ID cards to foreign nationals. The documents gave holders access to banking services, freedom of movement, and a pathway to Thai citizenship. Among the five foreigners caught were a Chinese woman holding shares in a tech company with a billion baht of registered capital, and a Myanmar man with stakes in four firms, including oil companies in Myanmar and Singapore. Police think about 200 cards were issued in total, a roughly 20-million-baht trade, with buyers including scammers and drug traffickers. Fourteen suspects are still at large.

An ID at Last

Thailand is finally giving ID cards to Myanmar refugees it has hosted along the border since 1984. The Department of Provincial Administration kicked off the registration scheme in Ratchaburi on Wednesday, with UNHCR representatives in attendance. Under a 2026 regulation, verified refugees get "pink cards," non-citizen IDs that open the door to government services and official transactions but stop short of citizenship or any of the rights that would come with it. DoPA director-general Narucha Kosacivilize said the change is "a humanitarian management tool while supporting national security and public order."

Locally Built with Huawei Charging

SAIC Motor-CP put its new MG URBAN on sale Wednesday for a price of less than a million baht. As the company’s third locally assembled EV, it brings driver-assistance systems and automated parking to buyers who previously had to spend a fair bit more to get them. The same day, CP FOTON handed keys for its first BAIC FOTON eView Connect commercial EVs to five logistics, retail, and leasing firms, and signed cooperation deals with Spark EV and Huawei, whose liquid-cooled “ultra-fast” chargers are already operating in Bangkok, Pattaya, and Chiang Mai.

Read more: Xinhua (MG URBAN specs), Antaranews (battery warranty)

Seoul Keeps Tax on Thai Copper Pipes

South Korea has made its antidumping tariffs on Thai smooth copper pipes permanent, with duties ranging from 4.93% to 8.41%. The Korea Trade Commission finalized the decision on Thursday after provisional tariffs had been in place since March. Seoul launched the investigation in September 2025, and found that imports had cut into domestic producers' market share and operating profits, and concluded that local producers had been materially harmed. The pipes are the tubing of choice for air conditioners and refrigerators, prized for corrosion resistance and thermal conductivity.

Reservoirs Running on Empty

Thailand's 35 major reservoirs were reported at 56% capacity as of June 17, with usable water 490 million cubic meters below what they held at same point last year. ONWR chief Chayan Muangsong is warning that the seasonal dry spell that runs from late June up until mid-July could run longer and harder than usual, as El Niño is expected to stick around until the end of 2026. Cumulative rainfall is so far 10% below the seasonal average.

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