Vietnam 20250904
Mekong Memo Vietnam Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Headlines:
FDI Hits $24 Billion as Red Tape Gets Cut
EU Trade Deal Turns Five, Actually Works
Factory Exodus Creates Assembly Empire
Crypto Frenzy as Regulators Ease Up on Rules
Power Crisis Forces Reality Check
Logistics Players Stack Capacity
Satellite Internet Race Heats Up
HCMC Homes Cost 176 Years of Income
Military Shows Off New Toys, Island Builds
Coffee Prices Surge, Processors Still Missing
Dutch Developer Bets €1 Billion on North
Cheap Meat Imports Hammer Local Farms
FDI Hits $24 Billion as Red Tape Gets Cut
Foreign investment has risen beyond $24 billion this year after officials seem to have figured out that faster work permit issuance and multi-year visas help to attract talent. Energy and manufacturing projects are piling in, with officials promising 8%+ growth and a bigger sandbox for private capital. Northern provinces are the primary beneficiaries of more factories and industry, and the south continues to keep hold of its grip on services and finance.
Read more: Việt Nam News (Investment surge), US-ASEAN Business Council (Visa reforms), Việt Nam News (Long-term outlook)
EU Trade Deal Turns Five, Actually Works
The EVFTA hit its fifth birthday with tariffs on two-thirds of EU goods already removed and near-total elimination still on track for 2030. EU investment over the period topped $35 billion, mostly in manufacturing, renewables, and pharma. European companies continue to build out supply chains and train workers, but they still want (need) better infrastructure.
Read more: VIR (Deal impact), Việt Nam News (Market gains)
Factory Exodus Creates Assembly Empire
The great migration continues as producers flee tariff headaches to set up shop in industrial zones. Samsung and Canon drew swarms of Chinese suppliers to Bắc Ninh, creating new ecosystems of assembly operations. Rising land and labor costs are narrowing the gap with inland China, but trade pacts still make the math work. The main thing holding back even more success is that supply chains remain Swiss cheese, dependent on imported parts that put a lid on local value.
Read more: Caixin Global (Migration economics), Việt Nam News (Ecosystem development)
Crypto Frenzy as Regulators Ease Up on Rules
The Digital Technology Industry Law will arrive next year, 2026, finally recognizing digital assets and creating licenses for exchanges. Da Nang has approved a three-year pilot converting crypto to dong with full KYC requirements to keep the FATF happy. Global platforms are keen to get a piece of the action. Officials promise investor protection and tax compliance.
Read more: OpenGov Asia (Legal framework), Việt Nam News (Payment pilot), CoinSpeaker(Exchange partnerships), AINvest (State backing)
Power Crisis Forces Reality Check
After northern factories went dark for part of Monday and Tuesday this week, power reliability rocketed up investment checklists. The fix is simple, if not easy: grid upgrades, cross-border imports, and direct renewable contracts for big users. A 600 MW Lao wind farm has begun feeding the grid under a 25-year deal (you can read more in yesterday’s Mekong Memo). Chip fabs get special electricity rates to stabilize costs while everyone else watches coal phase-down timelines nervously. Industry needs transparent renewable pricing and clearer rules, but transmission capacity remains the bottleneck that nobody wants to talk about.
Read more: Vietnam Briefing (Crisis response), Vietnam Briefing (Fab incentives), Việt Nam News (Renewable pricing), EnergyNews.pro (Laos imports)
Logistics Players Stack Capacity
Thaco wants $1.9 billion for a container port at Cái Mép while A.P. Moller grabbed a stake in Nội Bài's air cargo terminal. ITL and Japan's Seino have introduced trucking ventures to consolidate domestic flows as e-commerce explodes. Shipping lines are restructuring operations toward intra-Asia routes, betting on tariff-driven trade changes. Operators say they plan bigger ships and new services linking gateways with China and India because that's where the action is headed.
Read more: The Investor (Port project), VIR (Air cargo), VIR (Trucking JV), VIR (Shipping routes)
Satellite Internet Race Heats Up
Amazon's Kuiper satellite internet service has filed for a Vietnam pilot, promising $570 million through 2030 for six ground stations and terminal assembly in Bắc Ninh. SpaceX has already received a Starlink trial license, setting up a space race for remote connectivity. Pretty much everyone realizes that LEO broadband is soon to be critical infrastructure- fiber optics to the paddies simply isn’t going to happen.
Read more: Light Reading (Kuiper plans), DataCenterDynamics (Investment details)
HCMC Homes Cost 176 Years of Income
A typical Ho Chi Minh City apartment now costs 300 million dong a square meter, putting a modest 100m² unit at 30 billion dong. The average annual income is only 170 million dong, so the math ain’t pretty. Buyers are spreading out to satellite provinces while developers are praying for legal changes and lower mortgage rates to help them offload supply (listed property co’s report that they’re sitting on 531 trillion dong in inventory). The next leg in the market is going to depend on approvals, infrastructure, and whether anyone can actually afford these places.
Read more: VnExpress, bne IntelliNews (Inventory crisis), The Investor (Debt wall), The Investor (Legal disputes)
Military Shows Off New Toys, Island Builds
Parades in Hanoi and Cam Ranh this week showed off domestically made gear as the military pivots away from aging Russian kit. Satellite imagery has shown accelerated land reclamation across the Spratlys, including a nearly finished runway on Barque Canada. China continues to make loud noises and repeat its nine-dash claims.
Read more: The Straits Times (Modernization push), Janes (New systems), The Times (Island expansion), The Telegraph (Runway construction)
Coffee Prices Surge, Processors Still Missing
Robusta prices climbed 40% in 2024, pushing export values to $3.6 billion in seven months. With 40% of the global Robusta supply, the opportunity to move up the value chain seems obvious. The reality, though, is that only 12-15% of exports are processed locally, a rate that’s miles behind competitors like Brazil and Colombia.
Read more: The Investor
Dutch Developer Bets €1 Billion on North
CTP Netherlands has mapped a billion-euro program starting in Hung Yen to support high-tech manufacturers and e-commerce with green-certified parks. Local officials promise that approvals will be streamlined, and utilities will be ready, but… well, let’s not hold our breath. The CTP play is centered on drawing ESG-focused manufacturers that need to fill supply chain gaps. Cross-border funds are betting on long leases, rising land values, and integration as national infrastructure continues to be improved.
Read more: VIR (Investment plans), The Investor (Expansion scope), AINvest (ESG focus)
Cheap Meat Imports Hammer Local Farms
Brazilian pork and frozen products from Europe, Canada, and Australia are undercutting domestic producers by wide margins. Local farmers face imported feed costs and a 5% VAT that pushes break-even points higher while exchange rates continue to pile on pressure. Industry groups are crying out for relief and/ or productivity upgrades as consumer demand continues to rise. Policymakers have the unenviable job of trying to thread the needle between avoiding trade barriers and keeping local farms afloat.
Read more: bne IntelliNews
That’s it for this week!
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