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Headlines:
Economy Roars Toward 10% Growth
Chinese Investment Reshapes Industry
M&A Market Finds Wind in the Sails
Infrastructure Blitz for 2030 Connectivity
60 GW of New Energy
Reforms Ease Tax Burden on Low Earners
Tech and Digital Push Gains Legal Framework
HCMC Financial Center Opens Tomorrow
Stock Market Choppy
Semis Chase Talent
Retail and Consumer Sectors in Rude Health
Aquatic Exports Hit a New High
Manufacturing Draws Hardware, Rolling Stock
Economy Roars Toward 10% Growth
Vietnam is preparing for double-digit GDP growth next year after scoring about 7% growth this year, with foreign trade crossing $900 billion and a trade surplus of more than $20 billion notched. The economy added nearly 178,000 new businesses through November, and registered capital grew by more than a fifth to $66.38 billion. FDI disbursement hit a five-year high of $23.6 billion. Business registrations and capital contributions are both up - 275,600 firms entered or re-entered the market. The government is pushing for at least 2 million active businesses by 2030, with the private sector expected to contribute 55-58% of GDP on the back of annual growth at a 10-12% clip.
Read more: Vietnam News (Trade Surplus), OAN (Trade Powers), Vietnam News (Business Growth), VnEconomy(Private Sector), VIR (FDI Surge), VnExpress (Disbursement Record)
Chinese Investment Reshapes Industry
Chinese and Hong Kong investors have been pouring money into Vietnam - more than $6.7 by November, making them the largest group of foreign investors and reshaping the local industrial landscape. Imports from China are booming, and Chinese firms like Huawei and ZTE have been able to tie up sensitive tech contracts and infrastructure loans from Hanoi. Joint ventures between Chinese and local firms are multiplying as companies try to dodge U.S. tariffs, and younger citizens are showing less anti-China sentiment than previous generations have been inclined toward, helping Chinese brands get more traction in the retail sector. Trade between the two countries has grown from $40 billion in 2000 to nearly $1 trillion this year.
Read more: Market Screener (Investment Surge), Vietnam News (Trade Growth), Devdiscourse (Strategic Balance)
M&A Market Finds Wind in the Sails
The M&A market is making a comeback with foreign capital contributions and share purchases jumping even as newly registered FDI projects saw a slight decline. Major transactions included Birch’s $365 million acquisition of Eastern Real Estate, Hyosung’s $277 million restructuring, Qualcomm’s stake in MovianAI, and Nvidia’s purchase of VinBrain. The next 24 months are likely to see stronger M&A activity thanks to improvements in the legal environment and better market access, with healthcare, education, and renewable energy expected to get the majority of new money.
Read more: The Investor (Market Revival), VnEconomy (Bright Spot), VIR (Forum Insights), Vietnam Plus (New Cycle)
Infrastructure Blitz for 2030 Connectivity
The government is racing to wrap up several transport projects ahead of schedule. The $8.13 billion Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong Railway and $13.5 billion Red River Scenic Boulevard are moving forward, and the $1.45 billion Ho Chi Minh City-Trung Luong-My Thuan Expressway expansion is expected to be finished by the end of 2028. The North-South high-speed railway project needs private investment; VinSpeed, Thaco, and Hoa Phat have all shown interest in the $67 billion project that would connect Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City over 1,541 kilometers. Groundbreaking is hoped for by the end of next year and completion in 2035. Lawmakers are being asked to approve special mechanisms for compensation, resettlement, and project management in order to grease the skids of progress.
Read more: VnExpress (Private Investment), VIR (Project Launch), VnEconomy (Special Mechanisms)
60 GW of New Energy
The Prime Minister approved plans for 60.3 GW of new energy capacity from 2025 to 2035, including 18 LNG-fired plants of 30.2 GW to be fired up between 2028 and 2035. The plan includes a 1.2 GW coal-fired plant by 2027, more than 12 GW of gas-fired machinery, two nuclear plants of 2-3.2 GW each (starting power production between 2030 and 2035), 10 hydropower plants totaling 5.2 GW by 2027-35, and two offshore wind projects totaling 7 GW by 2035. Japan has pulled out from the Ninh Thuan 2 nuclear project due to a compressed construction schedule, opening the door for South Korea, France, and the United States. Heady times for a nation that is thirsty for more power.
Read more: Enerdata (Capacity Plan), Reccessary (Nuclear Shift), VnEconomy (SMR Investment)
Reforms Ease Tax Burden on Low Earners
The National Assembly approved amendments to the Personal Income Tax Law, simplifying tax brackets from seven to five while keeping the 35% top rate in place. The taxable revenue threshold for household businesses jumps five times to VND 500 million annually, exempting roughly 90% of the estimated 2.3 million household businesses from tax and reducing annual revenue by around VND 11.8 trillion ($470 million). The law also brings about a new 0.1% tax on gold bar transactions to try to curb speculation and expands tax exemptions for high-tech workers and carbon credit income, taking effect July 1 next year.
Read more: Vietnam Briefing (Key Highlights), VIR (Threshold Increase), VnExpress (Gold Tax)
Tech and Digital Push Gains Legal Framework
The National Assembly passed the country’s first Law on Artificial Intelligence on December 11. The legislation sets core principles, prohibited acts, and risk management demands with oversight centralized under the Ministry of Science and Technology. The law will take effect on March 1 alongside an amended High Technology Law and an overhauled Intellectual Property Law. Biometric verification through VNeID is growing by way of Hanoi’s metro system, air travel, and banking, with mandatory biometric checks for bank accounts starting January 5.
Read more: VnEconomy (AI Law), MLex (Cybersecurity), Biometric Update (Biometrics Integration)
HCMC Financial Center Opens Tomorrow
HCM City is opening its International Financial Center tomorrow, with infrastructure, human resources, and investors reportedly chomping at the bit. The city currently has 16 data centers ready for operations, with more than 50 investors showing an appetite for a taste of the action. Ministries are finalizing eight decrees related to the IFC before December 19, and a specialized court for international financial disputes is being set up with foreign judges proposed to resolve complex investment and business disputes. The IFC is expected to initially rely on foreign staffing because of a shortage of local experience, but the expectation is that local talent will develop over time.
Read more: Vietnam News (IFC Opening), VnExpress (Specialized Court)
Stock Market Choppy
The VN-Index was down 1.61% to 1,718.98 yesterday, the largest daily loss in five weeks, as real estate stocks like Vingroup hit floor prices. Liquidity dropped to below VND 20 trillion from nearly VND 30 trillion; foreign investors were net sellers of nearly VND 368 billion on HoSE. For the time being, the declines are more likely to be technical corrections than structural failures - the market is still looking forward to FTSE Russell’s upgrade to secondary emerging market status next September, a change that could bring in as much as $25 billion in new money.
Read more: Vietnam News (Market Drop), Vietnam Insider (Analysis)
Semis Chase Talent
The semiconductor workforce is made up of about 15,000 skilled professionals, far below the 2030 target of 50,000, and the government’s human resource development program is looking into how it can get four national semiconductor and 18 institutional labs up and running. Some of the biggest foreign investors, including Intel ($4.1 billion) and Amkor ($1.6 billion), are driving FDI in the space, which currently has 170 active projects. Coherent plans to grow its workforce from 2,000 to more than 6,000 by 2028, and BE Semiconductor Industries has started manufacturing, and Applied Materials is working with local partners to meet global standards. Viettel partnered with VNU University of Science to launch the first specialized semiconductor training program, enrolling 20 engineers in almost 300 hours of instruction.
Read more: Vietnam Plus (Talent Shortage), VnEconomy (Industry Expansion), VnEconomy (Training Launch)
Retail and Consumer Sectors in Rude Health
Retail sales and consumer services businesses are flying. International arrivals are up a fifth above last year. Foreign retail giants are hurrying expansion - Japanese brands Jins and MUJI are at the forefront of the charge. Jins opened three permanent stores in Ho Chi Minh City after finding success with several pop-up sales, and MUJI has expanded its flagship to 3,300 square meters and plans 20 stores by the end of next year. Central Retail is building 10-12 new malls and 23-25 GO! hypermarkets over the next three years, and Aeon plans to triple the size of its operations. Rural areas appear to be the next retail frontier.
Read more: Vietnam News (Retail Growth), Vietnam Insider (Foreign Expansion), The Investor (Rural Opportunity)
Aquatic Exports Hit a New High
Seafood exports are expected to find a record high after totaling more than $10.5 billion in the first 11 months, up 14.6% year-on-year. CPTPP member countries made up 27.2% of export revenue, exports to China rose 30.6%, and U.S. shipments grew 8.1%.
Read more: Vietnam News (Record Projection), Vietnam News (Shrimp Surge), VnExpress (Market Breakdown)
Manufacturing Draws Hardware, Rolling Stock
Foxconn and Luxshare are expanding gaming hardware manufacturing, with Foxconn EV Energy & Component expected to pump out up to 4 million gaming devices annually, plus additional proposals to increase output by a further 4.8 million Microsoft Xbox consoles. Luxshare Precision wants to manufacture 4.5 million game consoles annually at a new facility with production expected in 2026. Foxconn’s subsidiary Fushan Technology will increase its mobile phone manufacturing capacity to about 140 million units while also expanding into new product lines, including chargers and wearable devices. THACO and Hyundai Rotem inked a deal for local rolling stock production suitable for both urban and high-speed rail. Hyundai will share railway technologies to allow for local production under the THACO brand. THACO has been vocal about how it plans to invest $61.35 billion in the North-South high-speed railway.
Read more: Electronics For You (Gaming Hardware), VIR (Railway Partnership)
That’s it for this week!
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