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UOB Lifts Growth to 8.5%, Hanoi Wants 10%
Singapore's UOB raised its 2026 Vietnam growth forecast to 8.5% on the back of a 8.18% first-half expansion (the fastest in SEA), and a 61% increase in FDI to $34.7 billion. The Asian Development Bank is less impressed and is sticking with 7.2%. Both numbers are well below what Hanoi wants. The government's scenario for reaching 10% full-year growth needs 11.5% to 12% in the second half, an optimistic bar. The trade balance flipped from surplus to a $16.65 billion deficit as machinery, component, and electronics imports have begun to outrun exports. About 25,200 businesses left the market each month in the first half, as SMEs got squeezed by financing costs and weak demand. Inflation was 4.38%, the highest first-half reading in five years, and just a hair below the National Assembly's 4.5% ceiling. US tariffs that will be due in late July have not yet been factored in.
Read more: VnExpress (dong forecast), VnEconomy (policy moves), VnEconomy (inflation), VnEconomy (regional growth)
PNJ Lab Chief Charged for Diamond Smuggling
Thanh Hoa police have charged 31 people in a smuggling ring that moved more than 30,000 diamonds worth $57 million from India through Hong Kong since 2024, making VND300 billion ($11.4 million) in profit. Among the accused are PNJ Laboratory appraiser Tran Tien Nhu Nghi and former PNJ Laboratory director Dang Ngoc Thao, who police say stripped laser inscriptions off Indian stones and replaced them with the company's mark. Three Ho Chi Minh City jewelry store owners were also charged. Buyers and Indian couriers worked together by way of auto-deleting WhatsApp and Viber chats, and they used serial numbers on US dollar bills as transaction codes. Stones were hidden in luggage, shoes, and clothing on flights into Tan Son Nhat, Da Nang, Noi Bai, and Phu Quoc, then sold for about a third below market to small retailers and new gem businesses. PNJ shares have dropped more by about a third since the news broke, even though customs data shows that legitimate diamond imports were $121 million in the first half. India shipped $63.2 million, more than half of what it sent in all of 2025. PNJ is trying to distance the company, saying the matter involves "individual legal liability."
Read more: Bloomberg (PNJ shares), CNA (raids), VnEconomy (seizures), Tuoi Tre (shipments), VnExpress (imports)
Long Thanh to Undercut Tan Son Nhat on Fees
Long Thanh International Airport will accept its first commercial flight on December 1, the crescendo event of a $12.8 billion build. State operator Airports Corporation of Vietnam has told contractors to finish work by September to allow three months for equipment testing, and is offering 20% to 50% discounts on aviation service fees through 2027 to try and lure carriers away from overcrowded Tan Son Nhat. Vietnam Airlines has signed up for Long Thanh routes to Beijing, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Manila, in addition to a domestic leg to Hanoi. Vietjet wants domestic connections to Hanoi, Hai Phong, Vinh, and Thanh Hoa. The handover will be run in three phases through March 2028, eventually moving more than 90% of the area's international traffic 40 km east of Ho Chi Minh City. About 70% of passengers are expected to travel on to Ho Chi Minh City, and until rail and metro links open, the widening HCMC-Long Thanh Expressway is the only way in. The main part of it is only about three-fifths complete.
Read more: VnExpress (capacity), VnExpress (roads), Tuoi Tre (expressway), Tuoi Tre (passengers)
$1.2 Trillion in Private Capital Needed by 2030
The cost of Vietnam’s ambition is going to be about $1.5 trillion in infrastructure and investment between now and the end of 2030, and the treasury is good for only about $327 billion of it. The remaining four-fifths, close to $1.2 trillion, is supposed to come by way of private and international capital, much of it through the new Vietnam International Financial Center in Ho Chi Minh City. The center is anchored by the 55-story Saigon Marina tower and is expected to begin wooing foreign investors from 2027. A pitch to Seoul has already been made. South Korea was the largest source of new FDI in the first two months of 2026 at $1.34 billion, (nearly two-fifths of the total), and a July 13 forum with the Korean consulate lined up cooperation on cross-border QR payments, green finance, and asset management. Deposit growth has been trailing credit growth through the first half, pushing lending rates up. FTSE Russell's upgrade to secondary growing market status will come into effect during September.
Read more: Vietnam Investment Review (market cap), Vietnam Investment Review (growth target), Nikkei Asia (income goal), VnEconomy (QR payments), Tuoi Tre (Korean projects)
Three Editors Arrested For Ho Chi Minh Biography
Hanoi police detained the director, editor-in-chief, and editorial board head of the Vietnam Writers' Association Publishing House over their roles in the production of "Chuyen voi Thanh," a biographical account of Ho Chi Minh's years abroad. All three got Article 117 charges, which is the anti-state propaganda statute that was also used against author Nguyen Thanh Nam and an influencer who was arrested July 7. Under a January 2026 contract, Nam paid the publishing house VND1 billion ($38,087). Doan told state broadcaster VTV he cut multiple passages during review but admitted that the published version still contained content he considered inappropriate, including inaccurate history and material affecting the image of Party leaders. Yen made a similar admission. The book, published in May, was recalled after authorities objected.
Read more: SCMP (influencer), Tuoi Tre (detainees)
Honda Starts Building UC3 in Vietnam
Honda Vietnam will start making its UC3 electric motorcycle as early as September, General Director Sayaka Arai told Nikkei, as the company expects more urban riders to start buying EVs. If it happens, that will get Japan's largest motorcycle maker on about the same timeline as VinFast, which recently launched its VF 2 city hatchback at 188 million dong and expects customer deliveries in September. Honda has dominated the gas-scooter market for decades but has been cautious about electric two-wheelers while VinFast has built charging and battery-swap networks nationwide. No local price or output target has been announced for the UC3.
Read more: Nikkei Asia (Honda), Electrive (VF 2)
Sanofi and VNVC Plan 100M Vaccine Doses a Year
VNVC and Sanofi are building a 26,000 square meter plant to make vaccines in Vietnam. Construction is expected to finish by the end of 2027, and the first domestic batches (100 million doses a year for the National Immunization Program) should roll off the line in starting in 2028. Vietnam imported $486 million in French pharmaceuticals in 2025 and Hanoi wants to turn that import bill into export revenue.
Read more: VnExpress
China Overtakes US as Top Seafood Buyer
China bought about $1.4 billion worth of seafood in 1H2026, which was almost a quarter of Vietnam's $5.7 billion in exports, pushing the US down the list. Nam Viet JSC credits proximity, saying shipping costs to China beat the trip across the Pacific. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers says new US admissibility certificates have tangled tuna shipments, shrimp still has high anti-dumping duties, and importers stateside are working through inventory frontloaded before tariffs arrive as American shoppers continue to trade down. Shrimp is still the biggest category at $2.3 billion, up 13.6%.
Read more: VnExpress
Vietnam and EFTA Close Deal After 21 Rounds
Vietnam and the European Free Trade Association finished bilateral FTA talks after a (half?) marathon 21 formal rounds. EFTA's four members, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, traded EUR4.8 billion ($5.5 billion) with Vietnam in 2025. Vietnam had a EUR2.5 billion surplus, up from EUR500 million a decade before if you strip out Switzerland's gold trade. Norwegian salmon will benefit from immediate duty-free access once the agreement takes effect; mackerel tariffs phase out over three years. EFTA mostly sells Vietnam electrical machinery, seafood, pharmaceuticals, and mechanical equipment, while Vietnam sends back electrical machinery, footwear, garments, and mechanical products. Each of those categories has been growing more than 10% annually for the past decade.
Read more: VnEconomy
New Rule Sets the Related-Party Line at 25%
Decree 255/2026, which came into effect July 1, brings Vietnam's transfer pricing rules into a single text tied to the 2025 Law on Tax Administration and OECD norms. The headline change is that transferring or acquiring at least 25% of a company's contributed capital during a tax period will now create a related-party relationship. Loans from individuals controlling the enterprise worth at least 10% of contributed capital will also be counted. Wholly state-owned entities acting purely as debt purchasers, handlers, creditors, or guarantors, without control, have a carve-out. The lower threshold could catch minority stakes that multinationals have not previously needed to worry about, the first impact will be seen with 2026 CIT filings.
Read more: Vietnam Briefing
Jakarta and Hanoi Set $18 Billion Trade Target
Indonesia and Vietnam agreed to a five-year action plan to increase bilateral trade from 2025’s $16.76 billion to $18 billion by 2028. Jakarta has a $4.47 billion surplus which is Vietnam fifth-largest. In a recent deal, VinFast recently broke ground on an EV plant in Subang, West Java.
Read more: Jakarta Post (ministers), Diplomatic Insight (maritime security)
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back- hit reply and tell us what you think.
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