Myanmar 20240423: Unraveling, Meltdown, Realignment
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Here is your Mekong Memo this week for Myanmar. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated and help support us to continue keeping you informed.
Headlines:
Junta’s House of Cards Getting Shaky
Status Update and Video From the Front
Instability Making Investors Nervous
Getting Creative to Dodge the Draft
ASEAN's Weak Backbone
Thai PM Headed to Border Today
Aung San Suu Kyi Moved to House Arrest
Rising Demand for Chinese Language Skills
Junta Cozies Up to Russia Amid Internal Strife
ASEAN Inaction and an Economic Collapse
UN's New Envoy Faces Uphill Battle
The DVB's Fight for Press Freedom
Asia's New Security Paradigm
The Last Face Tattoos of Myanmar's Chin Women
Junta’s House of Cards Getting Shaky
The junta is looking a bit wobbly, with rising defections and military setbacks raising doubts about its ability to keep a grip on power. High-level officials and soldiers are jumping ship, suggesting the regime's armor might have some chinks. These cracks are showing up just as the wildly unpopular conscription laws are being met with resistance from both the public and local officials. This instability within the military machine hints at a crumbling authority and calls into question the junta's staying power.
Read more: Council on Foreign Relations (Junta Control), New York Times (Tide Turning)
Status Update and Video From the Front
Hannah Beech has been busy with some great reporting from the ground this week. The first article gives a solid overview of where things stand in the conflict right now. Civilians are bearing the brunt of the turmoil, with widespread killings, massive displacements, and a shattered economy. The second "article" is actually a short video showing how Myanmar's struggle involves regular folks fighting for a say in their own future, united in opposition and working towards democracy, even if the world's attention is elsewhere.
Read more: The New York Times (War Details), The New York Times Video (Resistance: Video)
Instability Making Investors Nervous
The military's conscription push is cranking up the risk factor for investors. Key trade routes and economic zones are increasingly falling under insurgent control, throwing a wrench into business operations and putting foreign investments, especially from China, in a precarious spot. To make matters worse, a mass exodus of workers is further destabilizing the economy and making life even tougher for companies trying to keep the lights on.
Read more: Fulcrum
Getting Creative to Dodge the Draft
Communities are pulling out all the stops to resist the conscription drive. Tactics range from administrative defiance to financial incentives for volunteer conscripts, and of course, the classic greasing of palms for the right well-placed official. Young folks, especially couples, are racing to the altar or fleeing the country to escape the draft. These desperate measures, including self-harm and suicide, paint a grim picture of the fear and anger surrounding forced military service.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Community Resistance), ABC News (Tactics), RFA (Bribes)
ASEAN's Weak Backbone
Despite ASEAN's five-point peace roadmap, analysts and regional players are calling out its ineffectiveness as Myanmar's military faces a rising tide of defeat. The conflict's escalation has allowed ethnic armed groups to seize control of vast swaths of territory, and it's unclear if the junta can keep its grip. ASEAN's street cred is on the line as member states offer divided and tepid responses.
Read more: Voice of America (Failure To Date), Vietnam News (Call to End Violence), Jurist (ASEAN Statement)
Thai PM Headed to Border Today
Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is set to visit Mae Sot to take stock of the border situation after recent clashes in Myanmar. His trip is part of an effort to coordinate aid and keep things secure, with nearly 3,000 displaced Myanmarese seeking refuge in Thailand and ongoing attempts to manage and potentially resolve the crisis without stepping on Myanmar's toes. The situation has put a dent in local trade and increased calls for humanitarian assistance, becoming an ever-bigger thorn in Bangkok's side.
Read more: Thai PBS World
Aung San Suu Kyi Moved to House Arrest
The military has moved Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest, citing health concerns due to a brutal heatwave. Suu Kyi and former president Win Myint are apparently now being held in slightly less awful conditions. The changes come during a traditional amnesty period, which this year just happened to coincide with heavy military losses. This might be a sign that the junta is rethinking its approach to ASEAN and the international community as calls grow louder for real political reforms and peace efforts.
Read more: San Francisco Chronicle (House Arrest Details), CNN (Health Concerns), France 24 (Heatwave Amnesty), Reuters (Political Implications)
Rising Demand for Chinese Language Skills
Surging Chinese investment has young professionals scrambling to learn Chinese, seeing it as a ticket to better career prospects. From factory workers to wannabe interpreters, folks are diving into the language, hoping to cash in on the growing economic ties between Myanmar and China and snag higher salaries and job security. Schools are also beefing up their Chinese offerings to meet this demand, talking up the language's importance in today's global business world.
Read more: Xinhua News
Junta Cozies Up to Russia Amid Internal Strife
As it takes a beating from ethnic militias, the junta is getting cozier with Russia, looking for backup in security and military matters. Junta national security advisor Admiral Moe Aung's recent sojourn to Russia for a high-level security pow-wow underscores this budding romance. The partnership goes beyond the usual arms deals to include tech and military training cooperation. These moves come as Myanmar and Russia, both facing international discomfort, increasingly align their strategic interests across the board.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
ASEAN Inaction and an Economic Collapse
Myanmar's economic nosedive and spiraling humanitarian crisis are painting a grim picture, according to the UNDP. Since the 2021 military coup, poverty has skyrocketed from 24.8% to nearly 50%, with another quarter of the population teetering on the edge. The country has seen a massive decline in middle-class living standards and a widening income gap. Foreign direct investment has plummeted from over $5 billion in 2017 to less than $2 billion, adding fuel to the recession fire that saw GDP shrink by ~18%. ASEAN's lackadaisical response is only making things worse for regional stability, as Myanmar desperately needs an estimated $4 billion per year to put the brakes on its economic freefall.
Read more: South China Morning Post
UN's New Envoy Faces Uphill Battle
Julie Bishop, the freshly minted UN Special Envoy for Myanmar, is stepping into a role that's been a historical quagmire of political dynamics. With a stubborn military regime dug in and a united opposition gunning for its total ouster, Bishop's job is to somehow broker peace amid deep-rooted xenophobia, misogyny, and economic despair. Her success hinges on navigating these choppy waters by getting diverse resistance groups and the international community talking, even though the odds of compromise are slim.
Read more: The Diplomat
The DVB's Fight for Press Freedom
In the shadows of Myanmar's regime, the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) is still going strong, delivering uncensored news from exile. Forced to pivot fast after Myanmar's 2021 military coup, DVB now broadcasts from secret spots worldwide, using cutting-edge tech and a network of undercover reporters inside Myanmar. Despite grave threats, they're providing crucial, often life-saving info to a global audience, sticking to their guns on democracy and honest journalism against all odds.
Read more: International Journalists' Network
Asia's New Security Paradigm
Asia's ramped-up strategic competition, with flashpoints flaring up across Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, is a shift away from the old paradigm where economic heavyweight status promised peace. This region, now the center of gravity for global focus, is trying to figure out how to keep things stable despite these thorny geopolitical fault lines. The changing landscape calls for nimble security strategies that prioritize regional integration and pragmatic diplomacy to maintain the peace and keep prosperity chugging along.
Read more: The Diplomat
And now for something completely different.
While the focus of The Memo is on news for business, we often wrap with a less business-focused article. It hasn’t seemed right to find anything offbeat, never mind humorous, about what is happening in Myanmar so this section hasn’t seen much action for the past few months.
We were inspired, however by this beautiful article (and photos!) on the face tattoos of the Chin women of Myanmar. Be sure to check out the exhibit at the Foreign Correspondent’s Club in Bangkok if you have time. It is scheduled to run until May 3.
The Last Face Tattoos of Myanmar's Chin Women
German photographer Jens Uwe Parkitny has captured the fading tradition of facial tattoos among Myanmar's Chin women, a practice once seen as a mark of beauty, identity, and belonging. These tattoos, historically stigmatized and now nearly extinct due to political and social pressures, show the culture and complex history of the Chin people. Parkitny's work not only documents these unique facial designs but also challenges conventional notions of beauty, preserving a lasting record of this vanishing art form. Stunning portraits - definitely click the link.
Read more: Nikkei Asia
That’s all for this week, THANK YOU.
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