Thailand 20250425
Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Business stories from Southeast Asia directly to your inbox every week.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
As a reminder, you can adjust which country versions of The Memo you would like to receive by adjusting your settings here.
Headlines:
US Tariff Threat Rattles Economic Foundations
Solar, Tech Firms Brace for US Crackdown
Red Tape Reduction for Foreign Investors
Exports Jump, Tourism Struggles
Foodpanda Exits Delivery Market
BoT Leadership Search Begins
State Audit Building Collapse Aftermath
Casino Bill Deadlocked
Southern Corridor Plans Speed Up
Visa-Free Entry Under Review
Civil Liberties Advocates Getting Louder
Bigwig Scandals Ruffle Public Feathers
ASEAN, Cambodian, Korean Collabs to Thrive
Housing Hampered by Safety Fears, Weak Demand
Refer three friends and receive a full paid subscription to The Memo for one month absolutely FREE:
US Tariff Threat Rattles Economic Foundations
US plans to hit Thai exports with 36% tariffs have officials (unofficially) worried. The Bank of Thailand is now saying that it sees 2025 growth falling below 2.5% if tariffs stick, and ministers are saying that GDP could drop at least 1 point. Exporters are running stress tests as parliament scrambles for solutions: soft loans, budget reshuffles, and a 5,000 billion baht support fund. The government is trying to placate the United States by offering to buy more LNG and corn, hurry-up with tariff talks, and fix their lax enforcement of product origin rules.
Read more: Reuters (BoT forecast), Bangkok Post (Talk delays), Bangkok Post (Stimulus), Prachatai English (Government Response), Bangkok Post (ASEAN angle), Bangkok Post (ASEAN unity), Bangkok Post (Exporter reaction)
Solar, Tech Firms Brace for US Crackdown
New US tariffs are taking aim at Chinese-made solar panels that are routed through Southeast Asia to disguise their origin. The tax will hit Thai exports with rates from 41% up to a crippling 3,500% depending on the maker. Tech companies are pushing to get their hands on AI chips before tighter US export rules kick in, and global supply chains are shaken up. The US Commerce Department is portraying their saber rattling as necessary to block China's dumping tactics, but Thai exporters expect that they will be forced to shift exports to Asian markets.
Read more: The Diplomat (Tariff details), Bangkok Post (Diversion to Asia), Bangkok Post (AI chip exports), Bangkok Post (Solar recycling)
Red Tape Reduction for Foreign Investors
The government is slashing restrictions for FDI, letting loose reforms that relax the 49% foreign ownership cap and expand the list of allowed businesses. The Law Reform Commission and four ministries are working to support the changes. While that update is ongoing, however, authorities are also cracking down on nominee arrangements, with tougher penalties and asset seizures for Thais that front for illegal foreign businesses. The government is also fast-tracking changes to stock market rules and treasury stock management to support stability and flexibility for listed companies.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Ownership reform), Bangkok Post (Nominee crackdown), Tilleke & Gibbins (Stock buyback rule changes)
Exports Jump, Tourism Struggles
Exports rose aggressively - almost 18% in March to close to $30 billion, thanks to shipments of computers, cars, and machinery. Commerce officials think 3% GDP growth is possible if momentum continues, even as they face down tariff threats. Chinese tourist numbers keep dropping, though, which will also be a drag on growth, with Thailand likely to miss its 7 million visitors target. Officials and businesses are mixing things up to try and adjust course by subsidizing charter flights from 20 Chinese cities, working harder to target wealthy Middle East and European travelers, and pushing luxury travel, wellness, and medical tourism.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Export surge), Bangkok Post (Chinese Arrivals), Travel and Tour World (Subsidized Flights), Travel and Tour World (Luxury Strategy), Travel and Tour World (Revenue Target), Travel and Tour World (Cruise sector), Travel and Tour World (Direct US flights), Travel and Tour World (High-value pivot)
Foodpanda Exits Delivery Market
In news that may not come as a surprise to careful observers (x.com), Foodpanda is leaving Thailand in May after 10 years of losses, unable to compete with Grab and Line Man Wongnai, which control nearly 90% of the market. Even though it was able to cut losses in 2023, Foodpanda's total deficit rose to nearly 14 billion baht. Analysts say the market is likely to solidify around just two or three players, with Delivery Hero focusing on more profitable regions. Only Foodpanda's ad business made money in Thailand, showing just how tough the battle for customers, drivers, and restaurant partnerships has become.
Read more: Bangkok Post
BoT Leadership Search Begins
With Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput's term ending in September, the hunt is on for a new central bank chief. The finance ministry has appointed a selection committee that must put forward candidate names within 90 days. Cabinet has already put Somchai Sujjapongse in place as BoT board chair, an influential non-policy role involved in monetary panel selection. The bank has recently cut rates, and tougher challenges are on the horizon as it deals with US tariffs and economic pressures. It’s not clear if the position will end up being a poisoned chalice for whoever is selected.
Read more: Fintech News (Governor search), Bangkok Post (Chair appointment), Reuters (Cabinet maneuvering)
State Audit Building Collapse Aftermath
Criminal investigators are focusing on substandard lift shaft construction and nominee shareholder violations tied to China Railway No.10 in the State Audit Office building collapse. The impact of the disaster is being felt in wider circles as nominee shareholdings are being widely looked at.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Building collapse probe), Bangkok Post (Nominee investigation)
Casino Bill Deadlocked
The casino plans saga continues to play out as plans to legalize casino-entertainment complexes are now in parliamentary gridlock. The Bhumjaithai Party and some senators are now in opposition. Senate committee debates and public skepticism is hampering acceptance of the draft, and a referendum might be the only way to break the impasse. The bill has shown tension in governing coalitions and forced the Pheu Thai government into drawn out public consultations.
Read more: Intergame Online (Parliamentary obstacles), Bangkok Post (Political infighting), AGBrief (Senate divisions)
Southern Corridor Plans Speed Up
Plans for a Southern Economic Corridor linking the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea, bypassing the Malacca Strait, are still on the front burner. The envisioned (imagined?) finished project includes new ports, a land bridge, new rail line, and logistics hubs in four provinces. The government is working with Malaysia and China on rail connections. Lawmakers want to make sure that Thailand is qualified to serve as ASEAN's supply chain gateway.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Corridor details), Malaysia News Yahoo (Rail collaboration)
Visa-Free Entry Under Review
The government is reconsidering its visa-free strategy thanks to an increase in visa overstays, illegal work, and issues of national security. Officials are floating the idea of making long stays more difficult shorter in favor of short visits. they also say they need to work harder on bringing a stop to abuse, border-running, and non-tourism residency by digital nomads and migrants. The changes come from a need to keep out illegal workers and protect public services in the more popular tourist areas. The Immigration Division is also expected to force inbound travelers to fill out digital arrival cards starting at the beginning of next month, a decision that has been widely panned on social media as being a relic of the past.
Read more: Pattaya Mail (Scheme misuse), Asia News Network (Policy review), Travel and Tour World (Digital arrival cards)
Civil Liberties Advocates Getting Louder
American scholar Paul Chambers is looking at a possible jail term and deportation for alleged royal insult and “cybercrime” - the first case of its kind against a foreign academic. The threat has sparked protests from human rights and academic groups who are speaking out against Thailand's draconian lese majeste law. In prisons, rights advocates say that overcrowding and generally substandard conditions could get even worse as new drug laws threaten to pack jails even tighter. International agencies are calling for prison reform, alternatives to jail time, and better medical care following the death of Netiporn Sanesangkhom while incarcerated.
Read more: Global Voices (Academic Prosecution), Prachatai English (Prison Critique)
Bigwig Scandals Ruffle Public Feathers
The Red Bull heir case has been brought into the news again as prosecutors were jailed for helping Vorayuth Yoovidhya escape prosecution after a deadly 2012 hit-and-run. In a new incident, a former mayor's son is facing charges after allegedly forcing an elderly couple off the road, causing social media outrage and demands for equal treatment under the law. PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra is getting challenged over tax and land issues, and accusations of special treatment for her father’s (former PM Thaksin) extended hospital stay continue unabated. Parliamentary squabbles and no-confidence votes are also getting press, with a cabinet reshuffle expected by July.
Read more: Jakarta Globe (Hit-and-run), Thai Examiner (Road rage case), Bangkok Post (Legal challenge), Bangkok Post (Thaksin hospital stay), Bangkok Post (Cabinet reshuffle)
ASEAN, Cambodian, Korean Collabs to Thrive
ASEAN countries are talking closely on how to team up for US trade talks and better regional cooperation, creating task forces and looking at ways to try and come out ahead together. Korea and Thailand are in their fifth round of partnership talks in trade, investment, and growth. Cambodia and Thailand want to increase trade volumes, build new special economic zones, and find new ASEAN-led market opportunities. Thai officials are also courting Korean investment to support a desire to make Thailand a more important financial hub, with better incentives and a more digital-friendly business environment.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Commerce chief call), Korea JoongAng Daily (Korea-Thai EPA), Vietnam Plus (ASEAN cooperation), Social News XYZ (Cambodia-Thai trade), Bangkok Post (Korean investment)
Housing Hampered by Safety Fears, Weak Demand
After the recent earthquake, Bangkok condo buyers are now saying that construction quality and crisis management are more important than price. First quarter sales were below analyst expectations. New unit launches are being forecast to be 20,000-24,000 for the year, but confidence depends how the US tariff talks go and overall economic stability. Developers in eastern provinces have cut back on investment, with falling transfer values and tighter lending rules squeezing the market. High household debt and weak take-up rates, especially for cheaper homes, are also slowing prospects for a quick turnaround.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Buyer Sentiment), Bangkok Post (Developer Pullback)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
How are we doing?
We love hearing from readers, and we are always looking for feedback. How are we doing with the Mekong Memo? Is there anything you'd like to see more of or less of? Which aspects of the newsletter do you enjoy the most?
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— hit reply and help us get better. We'd love to hear from you!
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. Please also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below, which helps us get visibility on the Substack network.
Thank you!