Myanmar 20250429
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Independent Media Teeters on Collapse
Earthquake Disaster and Displacement
Ceasefire Claims Fall Flat as Fighting Continues
Junta Faces Resistance and Loss of Territory
International Diplomats Push for Aid, Peace
China and Russia Dig In for Influence
Food Insecurity and Healthcare Collapse
Disaster Relief Faces Major Stumbling Blocks
Junta's Forced Conscription Draws Outrage
Surveillance State Tightens Grip
Earthquake Exposes Infrastructure Corruption
Resource Battles Drive Conflict
Rohingya Autonomy Proposed
International Fraud Crackdowns
Legal Case Tests Investment Protections
Independent Media Teeters on Collapse
Media outlets are under the gun in the wake of deep cuts in US grants and global aid. Outlets including Irrawaddy, Mizzima, and DVB are losing more than 30% of their budgets. Smaller outlets, especially those serving ethnic minorities, are staring down closure, tipping the information environment heavily in the junta's favor. The BBC launched a satellite Burmese news channel after the sudden defunding of Voice of America, but access to independent news is becoming harder to find as the press freedom ranking drops. We know that people are reluctant to pay for news, but now would be a good time to buy a subscription to some of these services to ensure they are able to continue their good work. Small money for you, big benefit for them.
Read more: Fulcrum (Media Funding), Irrawaddy (Ethnic/Exile Media), The Guardian (Satellite BBC Launch)
Earthquake Disaster and Displacement
A 7.7 magnitude earthquake near Mandalay on March 28 killed more than 3,700, injured thousands, and displaced around 200,000 people. The tremor destroyed tens of thousands of homes and important infrastructure, making a pre-existing humanitarian emergency of war and poverty even worse. Nearly half the country was affected, and main food producing areas saw cropland decimated, increasing food insecurity for more than 15 million people. One month on, many survivors remain in shelters under extreme heat, without reliable water or sanitation. Aid workers are struggling to reach those in need and emergency funding remains direly low.
Read more: ReliefWeb (Food/Agriculture), ICRC (Ongoing Emergency), The New Humanitarian (Aid Bottlenecks), Save the Children (Shelter Shortages), Reuters (Relief Funding)
Ceasefire Claims Fall Flat as Fighting Continues
Multiple parties, including the military junta and opposition forces, declared ceasefires after the earthquake, but fighting has not really subsided and battles are ongoing in almost every corner of the country. The military increased the tempo of airstrikes and artillery attacks in Karen and Rakhine States, hitting both civilian areas and resistance zones. Resistance groups and civil society say the ceasefire was used as a cover for regrouping. Trust levels remain at a low across the board.
Read more: ACLED (Ceasefire Analysis), The Diplomat (Attack Data), Irrawaddy (KNU Territory), Irrawaddy (Rakhine Assaults), Myanmar Now (Shan State Events)
Junta Faces Resistance and Loss of Territory
The military continues to lose ground in rural areas. Ethnic resistance groups like the Arakan Army, Karen National Liberation Army, and Ta'ang National Liberation Army have all been able to gain land, capturing military outposts and seizing territory, especially in Rakhine State and around Kyaukphyu. Resistance forces have also re-taken oil operations in Magway and jade mining areas in Kachin, putting a crimp in some of the junta's revenue streams.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Oil Regions), Mizzima (Kyaukphyu Battles), Irrawaddy (Kachin Jade), Mizzima(Lashio/MNDAA), Mizzima (Shwegyin Camp Seizure)
International Diplomats Push for Aid, Peace
Malaysia has become something of a regional mediator, brokering high-level talks with both the junta and the shadow National Unity Government (NUG). Kuala Lumpur's approach has included direct humanitarian action and diplomatic engagement, including field hospitals and earthquake aid. Malaysia’s work is a shift in ASEAN's posture, with Malaysia's PM encouraging wider dialogue and more transparent aid support. Analysts are saying Malaysia's engagement is a bellwether for ASEAN effectiveness as it chairs the bloc.
Read more: Bernama (Malaysia Moves), Free Malaysia Today (ASEAN's Direction)
China and Russia Dig In for Influence
China's quick turnaround of humanitarian support and its $137 million earthquake aid package gave the junta diplomatic cover and leverage over ethnic groups living near Chinese investment projects. Beijing is trying to walk the tightrope between the military, opposition, and armed groups to protect its interests like the Kyaukphyu port, rare earth mining, and oil pipelines. Russia's Rosatom is also reportedly pressing ahead with plans for a nuclear plant near quake-hit Naypyitaw, locking in support for the current regime.
Read more: Irrawaddy (China Influence), 9DashLine (China's Long Game), Irrawaddy (Russia Nuclear)
Food Insecurity and Healthcare Collapse
The earthquake has gutted food production, with large swathes of cropland ruined and cereal-providing regions crippled. Fighting, displaced farmers, and failed harvests are setting the stage for a hunger crisis. Healthcare is also collapsing: TB is reportedly on the upswing after US aid cuts slashed treatment centers and access. The public health system is overwhelmed - especially with the monsoon onset and unsanitary conditions in crowded camps.
Read more: ReliefWeb (Food Output), Frontier Myanmar (TB/HIV Care)
Disaster Relief Faces Major Stumbling Blocks
Relief organizations are starved for funds just as aftershocks, record temperatures, and the monsoon season threaten hundreds of thousands of displaced people. The Red Cross has reportedly received just a tenth of its quake relief request. The ILO is focusing on emergency jobs, safe labor, and rebuilding basic infrastructure. International Emergency Medical Teams from Thailand and Macau are running clinics, installing clean water systems, and generally working to try and head off disease outbreaks.
Read more: Reuters (Red Cross Funding), ILO (ILO Response), Bangkok Post (Thai Doctors), Macau Business (Macau Team)
Junta's Forced Conscription Draws Outrage
The junta is accused of responding to massive battlefield losses and widespread desertion by dragging more civilians into the ranks. Despite promises that women aged 18-17 wouldn’t be conscripted, reports are now coming out to document that forced military service for that group is underway. Rights groups are saying that this will almost certainly lead to human trafficking, sexual violence, and trauma risks for conscripts. Women's groups and the diaspora want more international action to put pressure on Naypyitaw.
Read more: Mizzima
Surveillance State Tightens Grip
The junta is expanding its digital surveillance apparatus, demanding biometric SIM registration and monitoring digital transactions and communications nationwide. New laws formalize the regime's power to intercept messages and track citizens using artificial intelligence, with hundreds of internet shutdowns and widespread arrests for online activity. Journalists and activists say these measures are erasing any illusions of remaining privacy and effectively silencing dissent.
Read more: Mizzima
Earthquake Exposes Infrastructure Corruption
The quake badly damaged Myanmar's grand government complex in Naypyitaw, inconveniently revealing poor construction and corruption tied to military-linked contractors. High death tolls and collapsed buildings in the capital have further eroded the regime's reputation and will continue to hamper its ambitions. In Mandalay, the junta is facing anger for demanding earthquake victims pay outstanding power bills, even when homes have been destroyed or meters have been damaged.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Parliament Collapse), Irrawaddy (Power Bill Disputes)
Resource Battles Drive Conflict
Resource extraction is fueling violence across Myanmar. In southern regions, armed groups and the junta profit from unregulated lead mining, causing toxic pollution and sending ore across the border. Oil fields in resistance-held Magway are being regularly bombed as the military tries to choke off revenue for opposition groups. Control over jade and rare earth mining in Kachin and Shan states remains a central point for attacks, both for military revenue and foreign investors.
Read more: Mongabay (Tanintharyi Mining), Frontier Myanmar (Magway Oil), 9DashLine (Rare Earths)
Rohingya Autonomy Proposed
Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami party has floated a call for an independent Rohingya state inside Myanmar, pitching the idea to a visiting Chinese Communist Party delegation. The pitch comes as the Arakan Army sweeps through Rakhine State, controlling almost all townships near the Bangladesh border. Experts say the plan is a fairy tale and ignores deep tensions between ethnic groups in the region and risks new instability, with China's support sought as a kingmaker.
Read more: Irrawaddy
International Fraud Crackdowns
Border authorities have deported more than 7,000 foreigners, mostly Chinese nationals, since February in a crackdown on online fraud rings operating from eastern Myanmar. Victims were recruited through fake jobs and worked in scam operations targeting users in the region. Intelligence points to thousands more still at large, as raids continue on border enclaves.
Read more: Yomiuri
Legal Case Tests Investment Protections
An Australian mining firm has brought the junta to the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), Myanmar's first such arbitration. The complaint, filed under ASEAN-Australian-New Zealand Free Trade rules, is the result of the company's exit after the 2021 coup and could impact how investor protection are evaluated and enforced across the region, depending on the outcome. A story to keep an eye on.
Read more: Global Arbitration Review (Paywall)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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