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Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
US Tariffs Trigger Thailand Recession Fears
Export Boom Masks Coming Pain
Industries Losing Steam Across the Board
Overall Tourism Growth Masks China Problem
Political Dramas Continue
Banks Fight Scams, Cut Rates
Digital Entry Cards Launch - With Scams!
Industrial Push: Skills, Zones, Future Tech
Solar Energy Dreams Hit Reality
Nominee Schemes, Building Collapse Probes
Southern Unrest, Security Challenges
Ransomware Attacks Up 240%
Legal: Chambers Arrest, Graft, Cash Handouts
Myanmar Pollution, Thai Problem
Quake Safety Fears Hit City Dwellers
Weight-Loss Drugs Hit Thai Market
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US Tariffs Trigger Thailand Recession Fears
An economic hit is on the horizon as the United States looks to slap a 36% tariff on exports. Growth targets have now fallen below 2%, with the central bank cutting interest rates as exporters warn of losses. The auto, electronics, and housing sectors are all bracing for cuts. Moody's has downgraded Thailand's outlook to "negative." The country is scrambling to negotiate with the US, strengthen ties with ASEAN, and roll out a 500 billion baht stimulus, but risks from trade friction, high household debt, and investment impacts are all keeping people up at night.
Read more: Bangkok Post (policy response), VN Express (rate cuts), Bloomberg (trade war impact), Bangkok Post (forecast cut), The Diplomat (Moody's downgrade), Travel & Tour World (diplomatic fallout)
Export Boom Masks Coming Pain
Despite the threat of tariffs, Thai exports jumped nearly 18% year-on-year in March - the fastest rise in three years. Full-year growth, however, is expected to turn negative as the front-loading effect peters out. Officials say that they see opportunities in computers, food, and agriculture as a chance to grab China's lost US market share if players move quickly. Authorities are also telling exporters that they need to find alternative markets as they working on EU deals to try offset losses.
Read more: Reuters (outlook), Kasikorn Research (analysis), Bangkok Post (export chances), Bangkok Post (EU FTA)
Industries Losing Steam Across the Board
Auto, petrochemical, and housing are all suffering from weak demand. March auto production dropped 6%. EV sales are growing but missing targets. Petrochemical giants are switching feedstocks and cutting costs. Housing developers are expecting double-digit profit drops as government incentives are failing while inventory piles up. Construction contractors are being hit by delayed investment and more challenging bidding standards.
Read more: Automotive Logistics (supply chain), Bangkok Post (housing), English News CN (autos), Bangkok Post (petrochem), Bangkok Post (contractors)
Overall Tourism Growth Masks China Problem
Tourism is recovering with almost 10 million Q1 visitors and a reported 70% hotel occupancy rate, but Chinese tourist numbers have hit historic lows, with daily arrivals below 6,000 - half of normal levels. New campaigns, partnerships, and infrastructure upgrades in the Northeast are being rolled out, but regional rivals like Malaysia and Russia are gaining ground. Separately, authorities say they want to close student visa loopholes and tap new markets like LGBTQIA+ travelers and multi-country "single visa" packages.
Read more: Travel & Tour World (airports), Travel & Tour World (China drop), Khaosod English (strategy shift), Travel & Tour World (LGBTQIA+ market), Travel & Tour World (ASEAN visa plan), Travel & Tour World (market diversification), Bangkok Post (visa misuse), Bangkok Post (immigration reform)
Political Dramas Continue
The Supreme Court has thrown out a case against Thaksin Shinawatra over special prison treatment but has also ordered a new probe. The Red Bull heir case has come back into the spotlight as two prosecutors received jail time for falsifying evidence to help him dodge charges. The casino bill remains stuck in coalition fights, with polls showing weak public support and warnings that it’s a "time bomb" for government stability. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are battling for local power while Democrats are struggling with an internal crisis (again).
Read more: Malay Mail (Thaksin probe), AP News (Red Bull case), Bangkok Post (casino tensions), Casino.org (public survey), Bangkok Post (Bhumjaithai growth), Bangkok Post (Democrat crisis)
Banks Fight Scams, Cut Rates
A rising tide of cybercrime has forced new rules: banks will now limit mobile accounts to one per device, require facial recognition for large transfers, and platforms will face some liability for fraud. Banks, telecoms, and users will all have a shared responsibility for scams now. The central bank's rate cuts have triggered $2 billion in Thai bond inflows as investors bet on more cuts and gold prices have spiked again. Digital payments and insurance are facing tighter regulation, with new data processing guidelines in place. Debt relief programs have been extended as worker debt continues to climb and household repayments drop.
Read more: Bangkok Post (fraud liability), English News CN (new rules), Bangkok Post (bond inflows), Tilleke & Gibbins (payment oversight), Bangkok Post (debt relief), Bangkok Post (worker debt), Tilleke & Gibbins (insurance data rules)
Digital Entry Cards Launch - With Scams!
The Immigration Police now require international travelers to fill out Digital Arrival Cards three days before they enter into Thailand, in a replacement of the paper forms that you may remember from the olden days (before COVID). The system reportedly links to biometric and criminal databases to screen for transnational crime, but why an online form is necessary for that has never been made clear. There are reports of a website charging for the free form, and police are telling users to make sure they only access the official government portal.
Read more: Vietnam Plus (launch details), Business Standard (guidance), Malay Mail (fraud warning)
Industrial Push: Skills, Zones, Future Tech
Thailand is rolling out a "4+2" strategy focused on electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, chips, and medical technology, with a five-year plan to train 80,000 semiconductor workers. Education reforms now give credit for real-world skills. The government is interested in 20 new economic zones in the north and northeast to draw $275 million in investment, allowing for more foreign ownership, and creating jobs outside the Eastern Economic Corridor. Southern mega-projects are seeing resistance at the moment over land rights and foreign labor policies, with protests brewing.
Read more: British Council (workforce plan), Bangkok Post (zone projects), Bangkok Post (SEC protest)
Solar Energy Dreams Hit Reality
The solar sector is struggling with regulatory delays and (surprise!) entrenched interests. Installed solar capacity remains below 4% of generation, with net-zero targets far from being reached. The national Power Development Plan offers little room for expansion through 2037. Gas industry resistance and utility reluctance to support rooftop solar are throwing sand into the transition works, mostly due to complex permits and long-term gas commitments. Floating solar projects are under review, especially with Chinese players, but bureaucratic barriers remain even beyond recent US solar panel tariffs.
Read more: Dialogue Earth
Nominee Schemes, Building Collapse Probes
Authorities have busted a Chinese nominee scheme involving a 2-billion-baht luxury condo in Rayong, arresting locals acting as investment proxies to dodge foreign ownership limits. The DSI continues its investigation into the 30-story building collapse in Bangkok that killed 66 people, looking into bid-rigging, design changes, and nominee structures between Thai and Chinese construction firms. Auditors and executives are under the microscope as lawmakers sniff out corruption.
Read more: Bangkok Post (condo crackdown), Khaosod English (collapse probe), Bangkok Post (contractor questioning), Bangkok Post (auditor defense)
Southern Unrest, Security Challenges
Plans to lift martial law in southern provinces have been scrapped after recent attacks in Yala province. The Justice Minister made a proposal to copy Chinese Xinjiang-style governance, but its been rejected by security chiefs who said that constitutional requirements wouldn’t allow the strategy. The government has called for new peace talks with BRN separatists and is trying to find administrative models that are more in alignment with Thai law. Joint operations with Australia are currently underway targeting cross-border crime, trafficking, and money laundering.
Read more: Khaosod English (martial law decision), Tribune India (Xinjiang comparison), Bangkok Post (Australia partnership)
Ransomware Attacks Up 240%
Thailand is suffering from a wave of ransomware and cyberattacks, with LockBit3, Lazarus, and TA505 groups hitting IT, manufacturing, and services. Attacks are using phishing, remote desktop exploits, and credential theft, combining data encryption with extortion. Companies are trying to strengthen their systems and authorities are trying to raise public awareness and introducing better digital fraud policies.
Read more: Cybersecurity News
Legal: Chambers Arrest, Graft, Cash Handouts
In a rare move, Thai prosecutors have dropped royal insult charges against US academic Paul Chambers, taking a possibly show-stopping diplomatic issue off the table in US-Thai trade talks. Former finance minister Thanong has been cleared in the decades-old Rolls-Royce/ Thai Airways graft scandal due to a lack of evidence. Cash handout schemes are getting legal challenges as watchdogs ask if fund allocations have been in violation of the Constitution, with officials risking removal if found guilty.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Chambers/ trade), Bangkok Post (Chambers), AP (Chambers), Bangkok Post (Rolls-Royce), Bangkok Post (handout probe)
Myanmar Pollution, Thai Problem
A new study found levels of arsenic and mercury far in excess of safe limits in the Kok and Sai rivers from Myanmar gold mines, threatening water for 1.2 million Thailand residents. Activists want a monitoring center in Chiang Rai and cross-border agreements with Myanmar's junta and China. Proposals include joint river monitoring and cleanup efforts, but Myanmar's political crisis is not making coordination especially easy.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Quake Safety Fears Hit City Dwellers
The deadly Myanmar earthquake that sent tremors through Bangkok last month is causing many Bangkok residents to say that they now fear high-rise living. As a result, property developers say they expect a shift to more low-rise projects. The incident embarrassingly showed national gaps in emergency response, outdated building codes, and communication systems, while collapse investigations continue.
Read more: Al Jazeera
Weight-Loss Drugs Hit Thai Market
Novo Nordisk has launched its obesity drug Wegovy in Thailand. The medicine, initially limited to private hospitals, comes as obesity is afflicting 42% of Thai adults and costing the country about 1% of GDP. Competitor Eli Lilly is also getting ready to enter the marke and Novo Nordisk says that it sees Thailand as a springboard for Southeast Asia expansion.
Read more: Reuters
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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