Myanmar 20250513
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Beijing Walks a Tightrope
China Strong-arms Ethnic Armies
Guards for Hire Law Gets Teeth
Junta Courts Moscow and Beijing
Election Plan Draws Boycott
ASEAN Pressure Playbook
Quake Lays Bare Health Collapse
Airstrikes and Cash Crunch Stall Relief
Quake Damage Ripples Through Economy
Media Space Shrinks Further
Scam Rings In International Crosshairs
Front-Line Map Keeps Shifting
War Fuels Environmental Decay
Refugees and Students Lose Lifelines
Sanctions Ledger and UN Seat in Flux
Beijing Walks a Tightrope
Chinese are getting some praise for the delivery of prefabricated offices, medical teams, and quake cash, but continue to keep arming and propping up the junta. Public anger is rising on social media where portacabins for ministries have been cause for ridicule. An ambassador's op-ed claiming the Irrawaddy River's "Chinese origins" has also been cause for some to cry foul over sovereignty. Activists say Beijing's main concern is protecting US$6 billion in border trade and Belt and Road corridors, so feel-good aid packages only serve to try and obfuscate its role in perpetuating military rule. Anti-China boycotts are growing, and resistance groups warn Chinese projects could become targets if support for the generals continues.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Public Fury), Irrawaddy (Prefab Delivery), Irrawaddy (Ambassador Op-ed)
China Strong-arms Ethnic Armies
Chinese brokers have divided seven border ethnic forces into friends, fence-sitters, and troublemakers. Supplies of food, fuel, and medicine flow or stop depending on whether groups are willing to follow orders to curb weapons sharing with the People's Defence Force or stay neutral in the upcoming junta elections. The MNDAA learned the price of defiance when Beijing leaned on it to freeze its advance after Operation 1027, while the KIA and TNLA are still trying to figure out how to maximize what they have for leverage. Similarly to the previous summary, observers say the ethnic army pressure mostly serves to protect US$20 billion in Yunnan trade routes without picking a winner in the civil war, keeping all parties too dependent on China to turn westward.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Strategy), Eurasia Review (Ceasefire Pressure)
Guards for Hire Law Gets Teeth
The junta has rolled out its first Private Security Service Law, forcing any firm with more than ten guards to register, run junta-approved training and keep foreign staff below 25 percent. The model is very similar to rules in Singapore and Japan but includes a clause obliging guards to "co-operate" with state forces, blurring the line between bouncers and informants. Industry insiders are connecting the regulations to rising crime, battlefield spill-overs into cities, and Chinese pressure to protect mining and casino assets that keep cross-border trade moving along. Companies say that they worry that staff could be dragged into fighting and that the legal definition of "crime" now changes with every military decree.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Junta Courts Moscow and Beijing
Min Aung Hlaing brushed past an ICC arrest warrant to attend Russia's Victory Day parade, begin new arms talks, and discuss a possible small nuclear plant near Naypyitaw. Defence chiefs met their Russian counterparts to talk on fighter jets, helicopters, and artillery while separate meetings in Moscow brought Min Aung Hlaing face-to-face with Xi Jinping for the first time since the coup. Ten earlier cooperation deals in mining, banking, and IT already keep the junta cashed up and provided with spare parts. Diplomatic images from Red Square send a message to Western capitals that Moscow and Beijing are still willing to open doors for Myanmar's generals.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Trip Details), Irrawaddy (Arms Talks), Myanmar Now (Xi Meeting)
Election Plan Draws Boycott
The military still remains keen to hold a tightly controlled vote in late 2025 covering only 110 of 330 townships, demanding opposition parties rustle up 100 million kyat and 100,000 members just to register. Nearly all ethnic parties and the National League for Democracy are blocked, and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy has now refused to sign up, joining with 40 other parties which were dissolved earlier. Analysts say the rules guarantee a walk-over for the army-backed USDP and may offer Min Aung Hlaing an off-ramp into civilian clothes. Resistance forces say they will to disrupt polling wherever the junta lacks ground control, warning the process will only deepen anger rather than doing anything to pacify it.
Read more: South Asian Voices (Analysis), Mizzima (SNLD Stand), Firstpost (USDP Strategy)
ASEAN Pressure Playbook
A guest column calls on Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and ASEAN partners to reroute all relief money through the National Unity Government and border ethnic groups while shutting off aviation fuel, gas revenue, and weapons that sustain the Junta. The piece claims resistance forces already hold two-thirds of the country, so any peace bid that keeps Min Aung Hlaing in power is destined to fail out of the gate. Proposed steps include humanitarian corridors from Thailand and India, an embargo on hospital bombings, and direct talks with Beijing over its arms pipeline. The author argues regional credibility now depends on matching rhetoric with actions that change battlefield facts.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Quake Lays Bare Health Collapse
The quake killed around 3,700 people, but the bigger story is a healthcare system hollowed out since doctors joined the civil disobedience movement. The doctor-to-population ratio has fallen to about 1 in 10,000. More than seventy medics have been killed, 263 facilities attacked, and private hospitals shut down. Injured villagers now trek to hidden clinics run by underground networks stocking whatever drugs smugglers can carry. With monsoon rains approaching, aid groups warn of diarrhea, dengue, and wound infections sweeping crowded tent camps. The junta's arrest warrants keep qualified surgeons in hiding, leaving volunteers and tele-medicine the only options for thousands.
Read more: Sight Magazine (Medical Shortage), Japan Times (Underground Medics)
Airstrikes and Cash Crunch Stall Relief
UN agencies say they have raised just US$34 million of a US$275 million appeal as military jets keep bombing Sagaing and Shan villages, breaking a post-quake ceasefire. Relief convoys need to dodge air raids while racing against the monsoon, which threatens landslides and disease. Private help is trickling in but 500 people remain missing and 600,000 are currently reliant on tarps and ration bags. Aid workers are blaming much of the slow response on junta checkpoints that demand permits and taxes at every district gate, wasting time and fuel.
Read more: SCMP (UN Appeal), China Daily Asia (Chinese Medics), Macau Business (Private Kits)
Quake Damage Ripples Through Economy
The quake flattened 1,850 buildings in the Sagaing-Mandalay corridor, an important area for agriculture, feed mills, and transport. Analysts say poverty and inflation will climb as planting cycles for pulses and oilseeds slip and livestock feed output may fall up to 15 percent. FAMSUN technicians have restarted most large mills in Mandalay, but small operators cannot afford doubled cement prices to rebuild silos. In factories, the tally is 31 workers dead and 154 injured; families still need to wait for compensation as owners shutter plants. Meat prices already up 10 percent are indicative of more widespead food-cost spikes if rail links stay broken through the rainy season.
Read more: SCMP (Macro Outlook), AgTech Navigator (Feed Mills), Myanmar Now (Factory Workers)
Media Space Shrinks Further
Local outlet Shwe Phee Myay keeps filing stories from Shan State even after 35 reporters countrywide have been tossed in prison, but its meagre donor pipeline is getting even more threadbare as USAID and USAGM slash support. Radio Free Asia has pulled its Myanmar-language shortwave show, removing a news lifeline for rural listeners. On Facebook, Meta's new "Community Notes" system is pushing responsibility for content moderation to users, causing fear that pro-junta mobs will flag and bury content exposing abuses, similar to tactics used against Rohingya in 2017. Editors warn the information vacuum lets propaganda fill the gap, leaving millions to rely on rumor.
Read more: Al Jazeera (Front-line Reporting), Mizzima (RFA Exit), East Asia Forum (Meta Rules)
Scam Rings In International Crosshairs
Washington has blacklisted Karen National Army commander Saw Chit Thu and his family over casinos and cyber-fraud hubs in Shwe Kokko that rake in billions and trap forced laborers. The sanctions freeze assets and forbid U.S. firms from dealings. Tokyo followed another trail, arresting 29-year-old Tomu Fujinuma for luring a Japanese teenager via an online game, then delivering him to a Myanmar call-scam compound. Thai police rescued the boy after a cross-border raid. Rights groups say up to 10,000 victims remain in militia zones running crypto, love-scam, and gambling rackets powered by trafficked workers.
Read more: CasinoBeats (US Sanctions), Asahi Shimbun (Japan Arrest)
Front-Line Map Keeps Shifting
In northern Shan State, the army broke a China-brokered truce by bombing a TNLA-controlled wedding, killing four civilians. In Mandalay's Madaya Township, helicopters and artillery pounded rebel-held gold mines that fund resistance forces, causing heavy losses on both sides and displacing thousands. Further north, the Kachin Independence Army controls most of Bhamo city but expansion has stalled outside junta garrisons protected by daily airstrikes. On the Thai border, Karen rebels took the Repanadi base, prompting a Yak-130 bombing run and driving more than 300 villagers into Thailand’s Tak province. Analysts expect clashes to get more intense once monsoon cloud cover limits air power.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Gold Mine), Irrawaddy (Bhamo), Bangkok Post (Karen Capture), Eurasia Review (TNLA Bombing)
War Fuels Environmental Decay
Illegal loggers, army units, and even People's Defence Force fighters are stripping teak from the Bago Yoma range. Single logs fetch up to K3.5 million and armed groups are able to charge tolls on every truck. Conservationists warn the hills could be bare within a decade, removing an important natural flood barrier for Yangon. In Shan-Karenni borderlands, villagers are reporting canals choked with dead fish, and those who bravely cooked the carcasses reported that the result… wasn’t great. Locals suspect pesticide runoff or deliberate poisoning near army posts but don’t have any access to labs to test the water.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Teak Plunder), BNI Online (Fish Die-off)
Refugees and Students Lose Lifelines
More than 108,000 Karen refugees in nine Thai camps now receive food stipends of eight US cents a day after USAID cut support that once covered 69 percent of budgets. Caregivers are warning of malnutrition and tuberculosis, but camp rules still ban outside work and free movement. Inside Myanmar, Amnesty International has identified a similar shortfall in education: USAID cancelled US$70 million in funding that paid for teacher stipends and scholarships in conflict zones, risking a "lost generation." Local committees are pleading for donor countries to restore funds or at least approve work permits so parents can buy rice as global prices climb.
Read more: UCAN (Food Cuts), Mizzima (Camp Data), Jurist (Education)
Sanctions Ledger and UN Seat in Flux
A March update counts more than 100 civilian deaths from fresh airstrikes even as Western capitals mull new measures to try and rein in the junta. The generals are strengthening urban militias and planning year-end voting to blunt any new embargo. On the diplomatic front, Tin Maung Naing resigned after briefly trying to replace reformist Kyaw Moe Tun at the UN. The credentials battle now returns to the General Assembly where US and EU are backing the incumbent. Observers say a formal decision this fall could either isolate the generals further or hand them an unexpected victory at the global podium.
Read more: ReliefWeb (Sanctions Report), Mizzima (UN Seat)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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