Thailand 20250516
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Spy Ring: Military Caught Running Info Op
Coalition Shaky as Vote-Buying Scandal Explodes
Deadly Design: Building Flaws and Subpar Steel
Peace Talks Collapse with Violence in Deep South
Tourism Crisis as Chinese Visitors Vanish
Tourism Rankings Plunge
BKK Courts Aircraft Giants
Changan Builds EV Factory, Neta Falters
US Threatens Crushing 36% Tariffs
Bank Chief Predicts Two-Year Slump
New Laws Force Tech Giants to Police Content
Vietnam Trade, Cambodian Cooperation
Factory Zones Exploit Myanmar Migrants
Cricket Farms Promise Quick Profits
Retail Apocalypse
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Spy Ring: Military Caught Running Info Op
A House panel has discovered a massive military-run info operation with 84,000 posts tied to Thai police. Investigators tracked the viral "Big Sister Juk Khlong Sam" account to government servers and found an ISOC center storing personal data on millions of citizens. Top brass have been quick to blame staff mistakes and deny giving orders, but MPs point to clear signs of a coordinated attack on activists and journalists. The findings are causing fresh privacy fears and calls for parliament to do a better job watching the watchers.
Read more: Prachatai English
Coalition Shaky as Vote-Buying Scandal Explodes
The Election Commission called six senators on the carpet for vote buying as the Constitutional Court yanked Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong from the DSI investigation. Officials have issued 55 warrants with rumors of 150 more coming, threatening the government's stability. The Medical Council is taking aim at two police doctors over Thaksin's “required” hospital stay, and the Bhumjaithai Party is threatening to block the budget. PM Paetongtarn is riding a bronco as she tries to get her 324 MPs under control as early election talks heat up.
Read more: Bangkok Post (EC Evidence), Nation Thailand (Political Showdown), Bangkok Post (Minister Suspension)
Deadly Design: Building Flaws and Subpar Steel
Police want 17 arrests after State Audit Office tower killed 89 workers in the recent earthquake. Engineers from Italian-Thai Development and a Chinese partner are looking at life in prison for their alleged misdeeds. Industry experts say there’s a bigger issue: about half the rebar on Thai construction sites is cheap steel that isn’t up to par. Meanwhile, parliament is catching heat for planning a multi-billion-baht makeover of its building just 4 years after construction “finished.” Ironically, architects say that the proposed changes could make the building less quake-resistant.
Read more: DW (Arrest Warrants), Nation Thailand (Steel Quality), Bangkok Post (Renovations)
Peace Talks Collapse with Violence in Deep South
Twenty attacks in three months is the worst tally of violence in years in the provinces of Thailand’s Deep South. Peace talks stalled in August after changes in negotiators, with BRN rebels saying that they had lost faith in the justice system. Some are calling for a joint ceasefire, a new mediator, and local government reforms to allow a resumption of talks. Deputy PM Phumtham has said that he’s willing to share power if rebels stop hitting civilians, but bombings continue.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Talks stalled), Khaosod English (Opinion)
Tourism Crisis as Chinese Visitors Vanish
Tourist arrivals fell below 60,000 daily, with Chinese visitors down by about a third overall this year and Chiang Mai hit even harder. Safety worries, a weak currency, and changing youth preferences are sending travelers to Vietnam and Japan instead. It looks like maybe airlines zigged when they should have zagged and have added too many flights, forcing them to slash prices. The Thai Tourism Authority (TAT) has reduced its 2025 forecast to 35.5 million visitors. Shops are now working to court Middle Eastern and Indian customers while souvenir sellers are becoming despondent.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Retail pivot), Bangkok Post (Airline pressure), Pattaya Mail (Long recovery)
Tourism Rankings Plunge
Travel groups want for new flight routes, charter flight incentives, and joint task forces after Thailand dropped 12 spots to 47th in global tourism rankings. Officials have begun slapping illegal guides with 100,000 baht fines, are writing tougher passenger protection rules, and cracking down on foreign tour leaders. To stem the flow, Bangkok plans a month-long Pride event in June and will bring in 300 Chinese social media stars to try and revive the country's image.
Read more: Travel and Tour World (Guide Crackdown), Nation Thailand (Passenger Rights), Travel and Tour World (Pride Festival)
BKK Courts Aircraft Giants
Bangkok wants to build a major aircraft maintenance hub at Suvarnabhumi to lure Airbus and Boeing to the country while relaxing foreign ownership rules for cargo airlines. Bangkok Airways plans to use locally made green jet fuel that reportedly reduces emissions by 80%, with the support of PTT OR. Bangchak has already built a refinery that makes a million liters of sustainable fuel daily. Aviation regulators have introduced new rules requiring meals be given after two-hour delays and 1,500-baht compensation for late flights, moving closer to European standards for treatment of the cattle passengers.
Read more: Nation Thailand (MRO plan), Travel and Tour World (Airline-SAF deal), OFI Magazine (SAF refinery)
Changan Builds EV Factory, Neta Falters
Changan has started building a 10-billion-baht plant in Rayong that will make 100,000 right-hand-drive electric cars next year, with plans to double that number later. They want to use 65% Thai-made parts by December and 80% by 2028, creating 1,400 jobs. Neta Auto is scrambling for new investors to save its Bangkok plant as its parent company is on the verge of bankruptcy despite selling 20,000 vehicles.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Changan plant), Bangkok Post (Neta funding)
US Threatens Crushing 36% Tariffs
America is still waving threats of 36% tariffs on Thai exports, pushing Bangkok on its $45 billion trade surplus and claims that Chinese goods are being relabled and sent forward. The central bank warns that if the tariffs come into effect, it could drop growth under 3%. Thailand has countered with a five-point plan promising better origin tracking, more US imports, and changes to chemical industry rules. Finance officials say that they’ve received "positive signals" from Washington after suggesting matching competitors' tariff rates. Experts say Thailand has a short time to act within a 90-day US-China cooling-off period or it will risk losing even more business to Vietnam and Malaysia.
Read more: Bangkok Post (BoT risk), MarketScreener (US talks), Pattaya Mail (90-day window)
Bank Chief Predicts Two-Year Slump
Central bank boss Sethaput has pulled out his crystal ball and sees a four-stage slump with the United States bottoming late 2025 and Thailand hitting its low point in early 2026. Growth might fall to 2.1% this year as investment slows and household debt bites harder. Inflation has dropped again to a negative 0.22% (that’s -0.22%) in April thanks to cheap fuel, but core inflation is still above zero. Interest rates are holding at 1.75% with "little room" for cuts, and Moody's just turned Thailand's outlook negative. Thais have rush to buy gold lately, pushing Q1 demand up 17% to 9.1 tonnes as people try to find shelter from the economic malaise.
Read more: Bangkok Post (V-shape warning), Nation Thailand (Rate space), Nation Thailand (Negative inflation)
New Laws Force Tech Giants to Police Content
An AI bill has been drafted that creates risk tiers, a requirement for human oversight, and local reps for foreign companies. A separate rule will force platforms to remove illegal content within 24 hours and take responsibility for checking user IDs. A new program has resulted in the training of 200 security chiefs, and a further national plan promises millions of AI-trained workers. Bangkok will be host to the UNESCO AI Ethics Forum in June, Asia's first AI governance hub.
Read more: Tilleke & Gibbins (AI bill), Tilleke & Gibbins (Safe harbour), Antara News (Forum)
Vietnam Trade, Cambodian Cooperation
PM Paetongtarn's Hanoi trip has resulted in a deal to increase two-way trade with Vietnam to $25 billion by 2030. Thai investors have already earned $1.2 billion in Vietnamese dividends since 2012 and are running 767 projects worth about $14.7 billion. In other regional news, Cambodia and Thailand have signed a five-part agreement on border inspections, drug rehab, and information sharing to fight narcotics trafficking.
Read more: Vietnam News (Hanoi Visit), Nation Thailand (Drug Pact), Nation Thailand (Thai Dividends)
Factory Zones Exploit Myanmar Migrants
Mae Sot's clothing factories depend on 250,000 Myanmar refugees stuck in Thailand's military zone, even as unions push to get them court access for wage claims and safety protections. In Bangkok, raids caught ten foreigners working illegally at bars, spas, and restaurants, resulting in fines and deportation. Officials plan tighter student visa controls and employer blacklists to fight the growth of illegal work, but human rights advocates say enforcement without legal work options just makes exploitation worse.
Read more: The Diplomat (Refugee labour), Nation Thailand (Workplace raids)
Cricket Farms Promise Quick Profits
The Commerce Ministry will play host to the Thailand Rice Convention this month, hunting for 100,000-ton deals while cutting fertilizer prices for local farmers. The PM has ordered agencies to keep crop prices stable through "Thai Select" branding, and tractor sales are expected to hit 70,000 by 2030 with more farms mechanizing. Bug exporters like now claim 6% of global sales, promoting 45,000-baht cricket farms that are reportedly paying off fast. CPF's profits shot up 642% due to global meat shortages, but Thai Union's tuna sales have dropped 14% from US tariffs and poor demand.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Rice Convention), Asian News Network (Insect Boom), Kasikorn Research (Cricket Market), Protanica (Cricket Protein), Bangkok Post (CPF Earnings), SeafoodSource (Thai Union Drop)
Retail Apocalypse
Café Amazon opened just 47 new stores in Q1, badly missing its 300-store goal, saying the problem was poor consumer confidence and slow growth. Don Don Donki shuttered another Bangkok location after losing 2.1 billion baht last year, cutting its Thai presence to just seven shops and scrapping expansion plans. Experts say this retail pullback is the result of consumers still feeling the squeeze.
Read more: World Coffee Portal (Cafe slowdown), Nation Thailand (Donki retreat)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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