Myanmar 20250520
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Election Plans Collide With Boycott Threats
Beijing Backs Everyone and No One
Air War Turns Classrooms Into Targets
Resistance Pushes South and East
Ground Losses Push Junta Skyward
Keyboard Warriors Outmaneuver Censors
Factory Floor Anger Boils Over
Rare-Earth Extraction Turns Kachin Hills Toxic
Quake Response Stalls Even as Need Grows
Yangon Sits on a Shallow Fault Line
Money Walks, Money Talks
Citizenship Reform Frozen
One Pass, Seven Beaches
Election Plans Collide With Boycott Threats
The junta still controls less than half the country be is still promising a staggered general election for the end of this year, beginning of next. A boycott looks likely: 19 million residents were excluded from a pre-election census, dozens of parties doubt free campaigning, and Western governments are already rejecting the process. To try and reduce pressure (on himself), Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing wants an "interim government" in July, allowing him to take a step back from the premiership even as he plans to keep command of the armed forces. Opposition groups say that the shuffle is just window dressing and are advising voters to stay away. Military leaders hint they could cancel or delay polls if security or turnout looks like it’s going to be poor.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Boycott), Mizzima (Interim Plan)
Beijing Backs Everyone and No One
China has been courting the junta with weapons, infrastructure projects (like pipelines), and in-person meetings while quietly funding and mediating differences with ethnic armed groups along the border. Its a hedge that keeps trade routes open, protects Chinese financial interests in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, and lets Beijing dial up or dial down battlefield pressure at will. The Special Advisory Council on Myanmar says that recent Chinese pressure on the MNDAA to pull back from Lashio shows Beijing is ready to Geppetto front-line moves if its assets look at risk. Resistance leaders call out the strategy as meddling that is prolonging the war and eroding trust.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (dual-track), Narinjara (SAC-M warning)
Air War Turns Classrooms Into Targets
From May 1-15 the air force dropped bombs in every state except Yangon and Mon, killing 126 civilians and wounding more than 310. The worst strike hit a Sagaing village school on May 12, leaving 22 children and two teachers dead while exams were under way. The Fortify Rights group says the attacks are purely criminal, and lacking of any sort military target, and so is asking ASEAN states to stop jet-fuel sales that allow the warplanes to keep bombing. The National Unity Government wants the UN Security Council to treat the raids as war crimes. Local resistance groups are reportedly teaching residents how to dig underground shelters to try and protect themselves from the relentless sorties.
Read more: Mizzima (Casualty Count), Fortify Rights (Fuel Embargo)
Resistance Pushes South and East
The Arakan Army and allied PDFs have left central Ayeyarwady Region littered with surrendered checkpoints, inching within eight miles of the junta's Advanced Training School No. 5. In eastern Karen State, KNLA Brigade 7 overran the Mae La border camp after 18 hours of fighting, inducing airstrikes that spilled across the Thai frontier. Further north, combined guerrilla units stormed Light Infantry Battalion 598 in Bago Region, grabbing weapons before air power forced them into a pullback. Resistance raids also emptied a guard post protecting China's oil and gas pipeline near Natogyi. Thailand and China have reinforced border positions, expecting more over-the-border fallout.
Read more: Mizzima (Mae La Capture), The Irrawaddy (Pipeline Raid)
Ground Losses Push Junta Skyward
A leaked field manual shows front-line officers can now call in jets without central approval, something that will speed up strikes as ground units falter. New Joint Operations Commands are pairing infantry with Yak-130s, JF-17s, and Chinese FTC-2000Gs carrying 1,000-kg bombs. Domestic plants keep churning out munitions despite and import block. Analysts say reliance on air power is allowing the junta to paper over plunging morale: two regional commands have collapsed, desertions are way up, and forced conscription can barely plug the gaps. The regime continues to parade hardware abroad to project confidence, yet its own reports note 90 towns lost since late 2023.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Tactics), The Irrawaddy (Signs of Collapse)
Keyboard Warriors Outmaneuver Censors
Women-led networks like Sisters2Sisters send footage of rights abuses through VPNs, Starlink, and encrypted chat apps from bases in Thailand. A new report says their material is useful fodder for UN investigations. Technology is being used by both sides, though: as activists are test creative AI tools for translation and archival, the same tech helps authorities run a facial-recognition dragnet and produce deep-fake propaganda. April saw internet blackouts in 138 townships, with fines and jail terms for unapproved satellite phones. The digital trenches are getting deeper on both sides each month. The future of warfare is here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
Read more: Index on Censorship (Activist Tactics), Mizzima (AI Risks)
Factory Floor Anger Boils Over
About 4,000 workers at Yangon's Tsang Yih plant for Adidas walked off the job, demanding a jump in their daily pay from 5,200 to 12,000 kyat since living costs have tripled since the coup. Danish brand Bestseller is backing a nationwide minimum-wage review, but unions continue to accuse suppliers of wage theft and anti-union sackings. The Federation of Garment Workers is saying that forced conscription and arrests of organizers are a threat to the entire (very economically important) sector.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Strike), The Online Citizen (Context)
Rare-Earth Extraction Turns Kachin Hills Toxic
Chinese firms that have been barred from polluting at home have moved their leaching rigs to the militia-held forests of Kachin State, allowing for a rise of Myanmar's rare-earth exports to China a hundred-fold since 2014. Acid runoff poisons water and destroys farmland. Militia leaders are able to pocket royalties, that they often use to buy arms that feed the conflict. Global brands from Tesla to Siemens depend on these magnet metals which lack traceability, letting "green" supply chains hide a dirty backstory. Researchers call the model "green extractivism": carbon-cutting tech built on front-line communities losing land, health, and any say in the deal.
Read more: Weave News
Quake Response Stalls Even as Need Grows
The March 28 quake killed about 3,800 people and left 200,000 homeless. Only 23 percent of planned aid has so far reached survivors. Military checkpoints are blocking convoys and donors are hesitant to send funds through junta-associated agencies. Independent economists are alarmed at a potential US$9.6 billion income hit as factories, bridges, and irrigation canals remain in ruins. Crop losses in the Dry Zone are threatening food supplies before monsoon planting can happen.
Read more: The New Humanitarian (Aid logjam), SCMP (Economy)
Yangon Sits on a Shallow Fault Line
Geologists say the Sagaing Fault's southern segment, dormant since 1930, is overdue for a 7-plus shaker. Two-thirds of Yangon's mid-rise housing stock was built before the most recent seismic codes were introduced and sits on soft alluvium that can make the effects of earthquakes more devastating. The 2021 coup put a stop to a municipal retrofit plan and allowed an unregulated construction boom while emergency drills and public education came to a stop. Researchers from Sydney suggest a fix: merge displacement, land-use, and health data so city hall can rank buildings for retrofits instead of relying on owners to self-inspect. No funding or political backing yet exists for that overhaul, though.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (risk profile), Sydney Southeast Asia Centre (data proposal)
Money Walks, Money Talks
Sumitomo and Toyota Tsusho are liquidating their Thilawa port venture, joining Kirin and Eneos on the departure list as insurance costs rise and currency rules strangle options. Separately, Justice for Myanmar has named 12 ASEAN billionaires whose firms continue to bankroll the regime through banks, hotels, and raw-material deals. Campaigners are asking Kuala Lumpur's upcoming ASEAN summit to figure out how to sanction these tycoons, claiming that fresh arms purchases are funded by their taxes and fees. Investors now need to weigh reputational risk against bargain-basement asset prices in a market sliding deeper into isolation.
Read more: NHK World (Japanese Exits), The Irrawaddy (Billionaire List)
Citizenship Reform Frozen
The National Unity Government promised in 2021 to scrap the 1982 Citizenship Law that brands many Muslims, Chinese, and Indians as "associate citizens" or outright foreigners. Activists now say the pledge has been shelved on the back of fears of a both a backlash from ethnic-Bamar supporters and unresolved federal negotiations with armed groups. About a tenth of the population remains stateless, complicating refugee resettlements and the accuracy of any future voter rolls (also see first summary, above). The delay is giving hard-line parties space to weaponize identity in advance of the junta's planned election.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
One Pass, Seven Beaches
Tourism ministers from Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines want a Schengen-style visa that lets tourists roam the bloc on a single stamp. Talks are warming up for the 2026 ASEAN summit in Manila, with players anticipating the return of travel arrivals to pre-pandemic levels and the spread of revenue beyond the big cities. Airlines are grateful for simpler itineraries but security officials warn that uneven border control issues could turn the region into a transit haven for traffickers. Each country needs to find alignment in fees and data-sharing rules before the passport stamp will be able to be rolled out.
Read more: Travel and Tour World
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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