Vietnam 20250522
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Headlines:
LNG Turns Flagship Fuel in Energy Transition
Dong Feels the Dollar Heat
Fast-Tracking Pharma Trials
Tariffs Rattle Apparel and Footwear
Plan B for Exporters
Startup Cities on the Rise, AI Ethics in Focus
Race to Train Chip Talent
Power Bills Keep Climbing
Death Row Rollback
Track-Lines and Tarmac
Fruit King on Thin Ice
Private Firms Get Fresh Oxygen
Cyber Guard Needs to Be Raised
Factories Keep Pouring In
LNG Turns Flagship Fuel in Energy Transition
South Korean conglomerates Hanwha, SK Group, Kogas and Kospo are doubling down on Vietnamese gas-to-power. Hanwha's team met the Ministry of Industry and Trade to scope extra projects using U.S. LNG imports while its $2.3 billion Hai Lang complex is continuing towards a 2029 launch. In Thanh Hoa, dormant coal sites are being given new life as 1.5 GW LNG plants backed by SOVICO-JERA and Cong Thanh with GE, BP and Actis all on board. Power Development Plan VIII targets 50 GW of gas generation by 2035, promising room for more cargoes, regas terminals and turbine orders as Vietnam phases out 18 GW of coal.
Read more: The Investor (Hanwha talks), Vietnam News (Transition), Vietnam Investment Review (Idle Sites)
Dong Feels the Dollar Heat
The dong has slipped more than 2% this year, trailing Asian peers as companies scramble to collect greenbacks. Brokers are saying they foresee a 3-4% annual depreciation this year, with the USD/VND expected to settle around 25,500-26,000 by end of year. Causes for the slide include Fed policy, U.S. tariff threats, volatile import bills and some amount of foreign investor selling. Analysts are telling importers to lock in rates with forwards and options while exporters hedge receivables and keep a close watch on Washington's trade stance.
Read more: Vietnam Investment Review
Fast-Tracking Pharma Trials
A joint report by Pharma Group, KPMG and Oxford University is showing the way for Vietnam to crack ASEAN's top-three clinical trial destinations by the end of this decade. If all goes to plan, revenue could reach $750 million with capacity for 86 trials a year, a 24% growth rate. Recommendations are to implement six-month approval windows, digitalize paperwork, set up a national Centre of Excellence and upgrade labs. Success in this arena would add thousands of skilled jobs and pull more multinational drug makers into domestic research hubs.
Read more: Vietnam Investment Review
Tariffs Rattle Apparel and Footwear
Vietnam's garment makers are still on watch as threats of U.S. duties jumping from 5% to as high as 51% by July 8 remain, putting a $71 billion export engine in jeopardy. At a 600-delegate forum in Ho Chi Minh City, manufacturers Hirdaramani and TAL asked for quick action on decarbonization and traceability to help them keep orders. More than 70 global brands, led by Nike and Adidas, warned that the American levies could push shoe import taxes above 150% and choke inventories. Industry groups are lobbying for a negotiated cap closer to 15%.
Read more: AccessNewswire (Forum), Vietnam Investment Review (Brand letter)
Plan B for Exporters
Coffee, wood and seafood firms are rushing delivery of orders into Australia, EU, Japan and India to try and soften the blow of possible U.S. tariffs. Meet More Coffee, Thien Minh Wood and Mekong Delta chambers say there’s a risk of a 30-40% cut in American volumes and are counseling direct talks with U.S. buyers on advocacy - the idea being that American importers will have a better chance of getting the ear of American officials. The textile lobby wants to lift local fabric input from 40% to 60% and pull forward necessary ESG upgrades so goods will be able to clear new border carbon tests.
Read more: Vietnam Investment Review (Diversification), Nhan Dan (Regional advice)
Startup Cities on the Rise, AI Ethics in Focus
Ho Chi Minh City cracked Southeast Asia's top-five startup hubs with a rank of 110 worldwide, and Da Nang jumped 130 places to 766 overall. HCMC officials are putting a 2030 target in place for the city to enter the global top 100. Both destinations offer sandbox rules, tax breaks and innovation spaces for entrepreneurs. Grab Corporation says that it has doubled Vietnam revenue to $228 million and is now using more than a thousand AI models to support its business. ABAII and the U.S. embassy have rolled out the first national AI ethics course.
Read more: VnEconomy (HCMC ranking), VnEconomy (Da Nang surge), Manila Times (AI ethics), VnEconomy (Grab vision)
Race to Train Chip Talent
A uniform curriculum for semiconductor degrees has been set and universities are being tasked with rolling out new courses this year. The education ministry wants as many as 100,000 workers by 2030, fed by training centers in Hanoi, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City. Intel Corporation backed the push through scholarships and an "AI for All" program and the labor ministry set upskill targets in the AI and high tech arenas after Q1 data showed only a bit more than a quarter of workers hold formal qualifications.
Read more: VnEconomy (Curriculum), Vietnam Investment Review (Intel), Vietnam Investment Review (Workforce Data)
Power Bills Keep Climbing
State utility EVN has raised retail electric tariffs 4.8%, the second bump since 2023, taking the three-year hike beyond 17%. Lawmakers are asking for VAT cuts, tax tweaks, a five-year pricing roadmap, and a power stabilization fund to protect factories and low-income homes from this rise. Energy-intensive exporters could lose margins but higher rates may finally be the kick in the pants needed to push efficiency upgrades and rooftop solar deals over the line.
Read more: Vietnam News (Parliamentary Plea), Vietnam News (Roadmap)
Death Row Rollback
The justice ministry has proposed doing away with the death penalty for eight offenses including drug trafficking, espionage, and graft, replacing it with life imprisonment without parole. Inmates with terminal illness would also be able to escape execution under the new rules. Lawmakers are asking for fast-track approval for the overhaul, the biggest change to the penal code since 2017. Vietnam now has 18 capital crimes on the books; the plan would trim that to 10 as leaders try to balance crime deterrence with what they see as modern legal expectations.
Read more: Asia News Network
Track-Lines and Tarmac
Hanoi has commanded the speed up of work on a $8.3 billion standard-gauge line from Hai Phong through the capital to Lao Cai at the Chinese border, including extra corridors to Mong Cai and Dong Dang. Separately, VinSpeed and foreign partners have pitched a surprising story for building out $60 billion of Hanoi-HCMC high-speed rail, and Son La broke ground on the Hoa Binh-Moc Chau expressway. New CBTA truck routes are already cutting a day off Kunming-Hanoi trips.
Read more: Rail Journal (Border Railway), Travel & Tour World (North-South HSR Pitch), Vietnam Express (Truck Route), VnEconomy (Expressway)
Fruit King on Thin Ice
China has demanded 100% testing for auramine O and heavy metals on durian from Vietnam, cutting shipments to 35,000t in Jan-Apr, down from 79,300t a year earlier. Only a fifth of Vietnam's 150,000 hectares of orchards currently meets export codes, and 61 packing houses have lost their permits. Thailand and Cambodia are aggressively nipping at Vietnam’s heels to dethrone the country as top player and Hanoi is racing to add on-site labs and traceability systems before farmers lose another season.
Read more: FreshPlaza (Inspections), VNExpress (Cambodia Competition), VnEconomy (Domestic Impact)
Private Firms Get Fresh Oxygen
Politburo Resolution 68 and a new National Assembly decree encouragingly are promising three-year tax holidays for SMEs, 2% interest subsidies on ESG projects, VAT cuts for startups and digital tools funded by the state. At a rare live Q&A session, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh promised a one-stop legal portal, annual inspection limits and automatic land quotas for small factories. Targets are for 2 million active registered private companies and more than 55% of GDP produced by them by 2030.
Read more: The Investor (Policy), Vietnam News (PM Dialog), Cong Thuong (Assembly Vote)
Cyber Guard Needs to Be Raised
Vietnam logged 20 million brute-force attacks in a year, more than a third of Southeast Asia's total. AI now cracks 61% of passwords in less than a minute, a stat that urgently calls for MUCH more widespread use of multi-factor authentication and greater use of zero-trust tools. The Tech for Good Institute promoted scam drills and social-media alerts.
Read more: VNExpress (Attack Stats), Tech for Good (Scam Drills)
Factories Keep Pouring In
BYD plans new output in Phu Tho; Nitto Denko is quadrupling polarizer film output in Hung Yen; WHA won licenses for two smart industrial parks; VinFast has promised a $240 million e-vehicle plant in Ha Tinh. Total Q1 real-estate FDI touched $2.4 billion, while a $1.5 billion data-centre campus broke ground to try and catch exploding cloud demand. Knight Frank expects industrial space leasing to jump 15-20% through 2027 as firms continue to put their "China+1" plans into action.
Read more: The Investor (BYD), The Investor (Nitto), Vietnam Investment Review (WHA), VnEconomy (FDI data), Vietnam Investment Review (Data Center)
That’s it for this week!
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