Thailand 20250523
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Coup Chatter Grows as Coalition Frays
Factories Fold as Cheap Imports Flood In
Tariff Shield Rolled Out, Washington Talks Heat Up
Growth Limps Along, Digital Wallet Gets Iced Again
Bad Loan Pile Up Forces Bank Scramble
Tourism Recovery Stalls as Forecasts Get Slashed
Spa Towns, Pride Travel Drive Tourism
EV Push Powers On as Carmakers Plead for Mercy
Vegas Dreams Edge Closer to Reality
Malls Go Solar, PTT Tightens Belt, China Deal Opens Doors
Transport Hub Dreams Coalesce
Nominee Crackdown Nets Thousands
Tower Collapse Exposes Construction Rot
Toxic Waters, Illegal Waste Test Environmental Controls
Bangkok, Hanoi Forge Strategic Partnership
Bank Staff Busted in Chinese Scam Ring
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Coup Chatter Grows as Coalition Frays
Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has just reminded parliament that coups are still on the table, even with friendlier generals running the show. The Pheu Thai–Bhumjaithai coalition is butting heads over cannabis, casinos, and referendum rules, while Bhumjaithai faces fresh poll-rigging accusations and United Thai Nation MPs are wondering if they should find the exits. Senator Nantana wants to freeze the upper house's appointment powers during an election probe. Activists say that the whole mess could tempt the military to step in, which would be… less than ideal for business.
Read more: Bangkok Post (coup warning), Bangkok Post (coalition feud), Bangkok Post (MP defections), Bangkok Post(vote-rigging claim), Bangkok Post (Senate petition)
Factories Fold as Cheap Imports Flood In
Local manufacturers are reportedly closing their doors at a rate of 100 plants a month in a trend that started in 2021 due to dirt-cheap Chinese products flooding e-commerce platforms. Economist Kobsak Pootrakool says deflation is on the way if the closures continue at the same pace. A Senate committee has drafted a Platform Economy Act that would force online marketplaces to register separately, increase VAT collection on digital sales, and guarantee a fifth of listings are Thai-made. The package throws in tax breaks for small firms selling online, hoping to buy domestic producers some breathing room.
Read more: Thai Examiner (closures), Bangkok Post (platform rules)
Tariff Shield Rolled Out, Washington Talks Heat Up
Bangkok has doubled tax holidays for SMEs, tightened investment screening, and frozen incentives for oversupplied industries to try and avoid US trade circumvention allegations. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira is sweetening the pot with promises to buy more American LNG and farm products to reduce the Thai surplus by a third. Negotiators need a plan by June, ahead of a July deadline that could slap Thai exports with crippling 36% tariffs. Consumer confidence has already tanked to a seven-month low as buyers continue to sit on their wallets.
Read more: Bangkok Post (domestic package), The Diplomat (surplus plan), Bangkok Post (talks prep), Reuters(sentiment dip)
Growth Limps Along, Digital Wallet Gets Iced Again
Q1 GDP managed 3.1% growth, but planners still see 2025 crossing the finish line at a tepid 1.8%. Spooked by tariff threats and weak domestic spending, the cabinet has put the 450-billion-baht digital wallet on ice once more, planning to divert 157 billion to water projects, transport links, and SME loans. An emergency decree that would unlock another 500 billion is on the table, but some think that it's just piling on more debt without fixing the demand problem. A proposed "G-Token" retail bond is catching flak over transparency and dodgy collateral rules.
Read more: Khaosod English (GDP data), Bangkok Post (wallet freeze), Bangkok Post (borrowing debate), Thaiger(token backlash)
Bad Loan Pile Up Forces Bank Scramble
Business and consumer loans shrank 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 and bad loans crept up to 2.90%, forcing the Bank of Thailand to run new stress tests. The Finance Ministry is extending its "You Fight, We Help" program past June, cutting the default window from 30 days to one, and waiving interest for three years on restructured home, auto, and SME debts of up to five million baht. They're also planning an impressively optimistic jobs bonanza in June with a claimed 600,000 positions available.
Read more: Bangkok Post (loan slide), Asia News Network (program tweak), Bangkok Post (jobs push)
Tourism Recovery Stalls as Forecasts Get Slashed
The central bank has chopped its arrival forecast to 37.5 million visitors this year, down two million from its last call, with Chinese numbers reduced to five million. Actual visits are running 1.75% behind last year and Pattaya hotels say they are pessimistic as May occupancy is expected to come in at a paltry 52%. The government's 3-billion-baht stimulus package of hotel subsidies and online marketing is getting roasted as a drop in the bucket: Thailand might need 70 million annual tourists by 2030 just to keep GDP growth at 3%.
Read more: Bangkok Post (forecast cut), Reuters (visitor data), Pattaya Mail (coastal slump), Bangkok Post (stimulus view)
Spa Towns, Pride Travel Drive Tourism
Tourism officials want to spend 450 million baht to transform 118 hot springs into onsen-style spa parks, starting with Chiang Mai's San Kamphaeng. The Convention Bureau is pushing a less-than-rolls-off-the-tongue "3M" strategy: MaxiMICE, Meaningful, Memorable to take advantage of air connections, green standards, and cultural hooks to bring more global conferences to Thailand. Agencies are also chasing the rainbow market hard, packaging LGBT travel that could bring in 150 billion baht yearly.
Read more: Khaosod English (hot springs), Travel and Tour World (MICE plan), Travel and Tour World (LGBTQ market)
EV Push Powers On as Carmakers Plead for Mercy
Chinese automaker Changan has just fired up a Rayong plant that is expected to crank out 100,000 car batteries yearly, saying it wants to double that by 2027. BMW, Toyota, and SAIC have laid out supply-chain blueprints at a Board of Investment forum - producers want Bangkok to ditch the 400,000-baht-per-unit fines for missing EV3.0 targets and keep subsidies flowing. The government has already loosened local-content rules through 2027 and ordered more chargers, saying it still wants 30% zero-emission output by 2030.
Read more: Just-Auto (new plant), VietnamPlus (policy forum), Bangkok Post (target plea)
Vegas Dreams Edge Closer to Reality
Deputy Finance Minister Julapan Amornvivat wants integrated resorts up and running within three years. UNLV analysts say that they reckon that Bangkok could pull in $15 billion a year from gaming. Wynn, MGM, and Las Vegas Sands are all reportedly sniffing around to try to get a piece of the pie as soon as it comes out of the oven. Draft bills at the moment limit casino space at 10% of floor area and demand money-laundering controls and strict entry rules for Thai punters. Critics keep banging the drum about the potential for crime and social damage, but the lure of big money is keeping the idea on the table. Tax rates and Thai access fees will determine who actually antes up when all is said and done.
Read more: The Star (policy pitch), Asia Gaming Brief (regulatory frame), iGaming Business (revenue study), Asia Gaming Brief (MGM stance)
Malls Go Solar, PTT Tightens Belt, China Deal Opens Doors
Central Pattana has formed a clean-energy unit and set aside 10 billion baht through 2029 for net-zero by 2050, starting with solar roofs on all properties by next year. PTT is cutting 11 billion baht annually through the use of digital tools and asset sales after cheap crude hammered margins and forced a rethink. National fuel use inched up 1.3% in Q1, with diesel dropping and jet fuel climbing on travel demand. Beijing and ASEAN have just wrapped an FTA upgrade adding green trade and digital commerce provisions, creating new export opportunities for Thai companies.
Read more: Bangkok Post (mall solar), Bangkok Post (PTT savings), Bangkok Post (fuel trends), Bangkok Post (FTA upgrade)
Transport Hub Dreams Coalesce
Airports of Thailand has hired consultants to increase Phuket airport capacity to 18 million passengers by 2029 by building new gates, taxiways, and supporting infrastructure. Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur shook hands on a direct train link by year-end using existing tracks through Padang Besar, cutting transfer times and smoothing cross-border trade. Thai Airways says that it has locked in 45 Boeing 787-9s, cutting its debt from 400 billion to 80 billion baht and is targeting a 150-jet fleet by 2033 to reclaim Bangkok as an important regional hub.
Read more: Bangkok Post (airport plan), Travel and Tour World (rail link), Travel and Tour World (airline reboot)
Nominee Crackdown Nets Thousands
Commerce officials have flagged 47,000 companies for fronting foreign investors in off-limits sectors like tourism, real estate, and logistics. Investigators have filed 875 cases worth 15 billion baht in damages and seized 1.8 billion in unpaid VAT on online imports. New laws will stiffen penalties, expand asset seizures, and create provincial panels to force probes to be run more efficiently (and closed within three months). The sweep includes the confiscation of 10,000 illegal online products as authorities clean house on digital platforms dodging Thai ownership rules.
Read more: Bangkok Post (legal overhaul), Khaosod English (damage estimate)
Tower Collapse Exposes Construction Rot
Construction tycoon Premchai Karnasuta has turned himself in after a 32-story state office tower collapsed in March's quake, killing 92 workers. Seventeen engineers and executives from Italian-Thai Development and China Railway No. 10 are facing negligence charges over shoddy materials and code violations. The Anti-Corruption Organisation wants deeper digs into budget approvers and inspectors, plus public audits of all government building projects. Activists are threatening their own investigations if officials drag their feet.
Read more: Citizen Tribune (arrest), Bangkok Post (probe demand)
Toxic Waters, Illegal Waste Test Environmental Controls
Tests found dangerous arsenic and lead levels in the Kok, Mekong, and Sai rivers, putting northern farming communities at risk. Water officials plan check dams and filters on border streams to catch mining runoff flowing from Myanmar. Customs just intercepted 238 tonnes of US electronic waste disguised as metal scrap, violating a 2020 import ban. The whole lot's being shipped back to where it came from.
Read more: Bangkok Post (river tests), Bangkok Post (dam plan), Bangkok Post (e-waste seizure)
Bangkok, Hanoi Forge Strategic Partnership
Thailand and Vietnam have upgraded ties to a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership," targeting $25 billion in trade through a "Three Connects" plan covering supply chains, logistics, and digital links. Universities jumped on board fast - Khon Kaen University is partnering with Vietnam's FPT University to train engineers for a semiconductor push. The deal creates space for expanded defense, energy, and tourism cooperation ahead of next year's 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the countries.
Read more: Vietnam News (partnership), CGTN (regional view), Khon Kaen University (chip training)
Bank Staff Busted in Chinese Scam Ring
Police nabbed a Pattaya bank manager and ten accomplices for opening 15 mule accounts that washed 118 million baht from Chinese call-center scams. Investigators connected the ring to 106 fraud cases nationwide and have frozen dozens of accounts. The Digital Economy Ministry is planning talks with Cambodian officials in Sa Kaeo to improve signal blocking, data sharing, and crypto rules to crack down on the cross-border crime.
Read more: Khaosod English (arrests), Bangkok Post (bilateral talks)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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