Myanmar 20250603
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Chief Pursues Presidential Path
Earthquake Response Exposes Broken Promises
Record Drug Production Amid Chaos
China as Local Puppeteer
ASEAN Diplomatic Efforts Show Limited Results
National Unity Government Pushes for Recognition
Military Faces Mounting Territorial Losses
Energy Attracts New Investment
International Business Scrutiny Intensifies
India Relationship Evolving
Civil Society’s Systematic Repression
Mechanisms for International Justice Shaky
Junta Chief Pursues Presidential Path
Min Aung Hlaing is hard at work campaigning for the presidency ahead of December elections, making use of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party as his vehicle. The junta has approved 54 political parties for participation, but has also dissolved pro-democracy parties including the NLD. The military will keep a hand on constitutional control through 25% of legislative seats and presidential nomination powers. Western nations are speaking up to reject the election's legitimacy, but China and Russia have expressed support. The regime currently controls less than a quarter of Myanmar's territory, and a pre-poll census failed to count more than 19 million people; it is difficult to see how anyone can be serious about the election's viability and credibility.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Campaign Details), UCA News (Electoral Concerns)
Earthquake Response Exposes Broken Promises
The March 28 earthquake left nearly 4,000 dead and affected almost 20 million, but the military's humanitarian response has been… less than stellar. The junta raked in $34 million in earthquake donations while at the same time continuing airstrikes on resistance areas while at the same time declaring ceasefires. Only 19% of the target population has access to health services, and two thirds are reportedly experiencing emotional distress. The regime has extended the “ceasefire” through June in the wake of ASEAN pressure, but reports of continued military attacks are ongoing.
Read more: BNI Online (Humanitarian Crisis), The Irrawaddy (Donation Collection), The Diplomat (Ceasefire Extension)
Record Drug Production Amid Chaos
In what would otherwise be a great win for efficiency and productivity, Shan State has become the epicenter of record-breaking methamphetamine production, with Southeast Asia seeing 236 tons seized in 2024, a quarter more than the haul of 2023. Thailand alone intercepted one billion meth tablets, while prices have dropped as low as $0.60 a tablet in Myanmar. The war has created conditions allowing for expanded drug operations by transnational criminal networks. New trafficking routes through Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines have been found, while Mexican cartels and Golden Crescent suppliers are also entering the market.
Read more: AP News (Regional Surge), UN News (Production Growth), Mizzima (UWSA Border Challenge)
China as Local Puppeteer
China has set itself up as the critical external power in Myanmar's civil war, wielding influence by juggling its management of relationships with multiple armed factions. Central to Beijing's interests is protecting its 2,500km oil-and-gas pipeline from Ramree Island to Kunming. China is using both a carrot and a stick - economic leverage with trade restrictions as well as the deployment of mercenaries to Rakhine state to support the Arakan Army's expansion under conditions to protect pipeline security.
Read more: The Economist (Strategic Control), Myanmar Now (Economic Pressure)
ASEAN Diplomatic Efforts Show Limited Results
ASEAN's credibility continues to slide as its much ballyhooed Five-Point Consensus has failed to produce any substantive results. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has called various conflict groups to join him for a dialogue in Kuala Lumpur, suggesting that direct engagement with both the junta and opposition forces will do the trick. The rotating chairmanship has made sustained diplomatic pressure more difficult, and ASEAN has done little to prevent other powers like China, Russia, and India from providing support to the junta. Critics argue ASEAN should apply more concrete measures like cutting aviation fuel supply chains and putting on meaningful economic pressure, rather than relying on hollow statements that carry no consequences.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (Credibility Crisis), Mizzima (NUG Response), The Diplomat (Peace Calls)
National Unity Government Pushes for Recognition
The National Unity Government is renewing calls to ASEAN to ask for more engagement in humanitarian aid distribution by working directly with ethnic revolutionary organizations rather than through junta channels. The NUG wants to set up an international ceasefire monitoring mechanism and a tripartite dialogue framework involving ASEAN, the junta, and resistance forces. The government-in-exile is still strident with its core demand for complete military withdrawal from politics and the establishment of a democratic federal union.
Read more: Mizzima (ASEAN Engagement), Mizzima (ILO Action Call)
Military Faces Mounting Territorial Losses
The trend of junta weakness seems to be continuing: resistance forces now control 42% of Myanmar's territory, and the military regime remains increasingly isolated as it deals with defections and pushback against forced conscription. Despite some gains, including seizing Ta'ang National Liberation Army bases in northern Shan State, the junta's overall hand continues to weaken. In Chin State, resistance forces were successful in pushing back an 800-strong junta advance, capturing nine soldiers and prompting at least 20 desertions. The Kachin Independence Army has isolated the jade mining hub of Hpakant. Even ethnic groups with historical ceasefires, like the DKBA, are now rejecting junta military presence near their territories as they smell weakness.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Chin Resistance), Myanmar Now (Shan Battles), The Irrawaddy (Jade Mining Hub)
Energy Attracts New Investment
The junta signed a production sharing agreement with Thai-backed Gulf Petroleum Myanmar for offshore oil and gas exploration in Block M-10, the first major energy deal since the coup. Gas extraction is expected to start by 2028. The deal was previously operated by Malaysia's Petronas, which pulled out after the coup. Rights organizations are up in arms about the possibility of revenues funding military operations; the Thai backing admittedly does suggests an attempt to get around sanctions.
Read more: Mizzima (Gas Deal), Myanmar Now (Joint Venture)
International Business Scrutiny Intensifies
The previous story aside, commercial pressure is being applied elsewhere. Singapore-based Interra Resources is under the microscope over its ties to the military through its 60% stake in oil fields, having supplied more than 2 million barrels valued at $150 million to the military-controlled Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise. The company suspended trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange in February. Denmark's National Contact Point has begun a formal investigation into Nordic Aviation Capital regarding aircraft sales to Myanmar after complaints of OECD Guidelines violations.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Singapore Oil), Mizzima (Denmark Investigation)
India Relationship Evolving
India-Myanmar relations are changing as the junta has begun to shift away from Chinese construction materials due to quality concerns that came to light as a result of the earthquake. India ran 'Operation Brahma' providing earthquake help including search and rescue operations, humanitarian aid, and medical support. This is a notable departure from India's recent ways of handling the relationship, particularly after Indian Army forces killed 10 Myanmar rebel fighters near the border in May, ratcheting up tensions and upending previously unofficial understandings between Indian forces and resistance groups.
Read more: Economic Times (Construction Shift), Al Jazeera (Border Tensions)
Civil Society’s Systematic Repression
The regime continues systematic attacks on civil society, with 64 out of 73 independent media houses having been forced into exile. Journalists work in terrible conditions - under constant threat of arrest while dealing with transport and communications infrastructure challenges and then pulling in only about $200 monthly when all is said and done. Five people were arrested at Mandalay's Nanmati Art Gallery in advance of a fundraising exhibition for earthquake victims, with pro-regime channels claiming the event was "undermining state dignity." The regime has now changed civil service laws that require course completions for non-CDM personnel that want to be promoted. It’s reported that Christian communities face particular targeting, with the Bangkok IDP Camp in Kayah State suffering three military strikes, destroying churches, schools, and civilian shelters.
Read more: DW Akademie (Media Suppression), Asian News (Religious Persecution), Myanmar Now (Artist Arrests)
Mechanisms for International Justice Shaky
Myanmar and Russia have signed an agreement to protect each other against international legal processes, an attempt to protect themselves from prosecution for war crimes. A UN human rights report was released with a roadmap of essential steps needed for Myanmar's democratic transition, emphasizing accountability and institutional reform while identifying women, youth, and civil society as necessary change agents. The International Labour Organization is considering invoking Article 33 against the military government after documenting violations of freedom of association and forced labor conventions.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Russia Pact), Mizzima (UN Roadmap), Fulcrum (ILO Action)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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