Myanmar 20250610
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Thanks China as it Protects Interests
Mining Mess Spills Over Borders
Junta Crumbles, Armed Groups Rise
Fake Election Still in the Cards
Ceasefire, But Not Really
Floods Deepen Crisis
Women Lead, Face New Threats
Junta Eats Its Own
ILO Hits Junta Hard
Poverty Explodes
Military Smashes Kachin Mines
Elected Officials Die, Junta Spreads Lies
Suu Kyi Remains A Stalwart Symbol at 80
Junta Thanks China as it Protects Interests
Min Aung Hlaing, has shown his gratitude to Beijing during celebrations of the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The thanks comes as his regime continues to lose control of territory. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has promised to keep backing the regime's "internal stability," and Min Aung Hlaing was vocal about continuing to support China's Belt and Road Initiative projects.
China is working hard to protect its $5.6 billion worth of investments in Myanmar. Risks are rising: 166 attacks have been reported of non-state, armed groups hitting Chinese interests. Beijing has set up its own security firm, has pushed for ceasefire talks, and has continued to keep some of the investment cash flowing. Chinese security services are now working side-by-side with Myanmar forces to guard the Kyaukphyu port, which is a level of Chinese involvement in the conflict that hasn’t been seen before. China needs to keep its 2,100 km border stable and retain its Bay of Bengal access through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
Read more: Janes (Investment Protection), Eurasia Review (Security Deployment), Irrawaddy (Anniversary Meeting), Hindustan Times (Dominant Influence), The Economist (Regional Hegemony)
Mining Mess Spills Over Borders
Uncontrolled mining in Myanmar's Shan State, especially for rare earth minerals and gold, is poisoning rivers flowing into Thailand. Chinese-controlled mining by the United Wa State Army has picked up its pace since the 2021 coup resulting in dangerous levels of arsenic levels in the Kok and Sai Rivers. Thai environmental groups are up in arms, saying the pollution could spread to the Mekong River system, threatening the whole region's ecological system and people's health. Chinese authorities say they’re willing to investigate the pollution, acknowledging the Thai test reports, saying that it’s important that Chinese companies follow local regulations.
Read more: Mongabay (River Contamination), SCMP (Chinese Response)
Junta Crumbles, Armed Groups Rise
Myanmar's ethnic armed organizations and People's Defense Forces are currently holding on to more than half the country. The junta is in firm control of only about a fifth of the territory. The Arakan Army has secured 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State and is pushing out beyond its traditional stronghold into the Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions. Fighting's still hot near Nawnghkio town as the junta pushes to retake northern Shan State.
Read more: UCA News (Territorial Control), Irrawaddy (Current Fighting), Frontier Myanmar (AA Expansion), Irrawaddy (Regional Adaptation)
Fake Election Still in the Cards
The junta is sticking to its plans for elections in 267 townships between late December 2025 and early January 2026, covering only 145 of 330 townships because of security conditions. Fifty four parties got the green light to participate, but only 8 will actually compete nationwide. In a surprise to nobody, the National League for Democracy has been shut out. The military still has a guarantee of a quarter of all parliamentary seats under the 2008 Constitution, and the Union Solidarity and Development Party is clearly the dominant military-aligned party. Western nations, the National Unity Government, and most Myanmar citizens are rejecting the election's legitimacy, but Min Aung Hlaing says he's got China and Russia on board with the farce.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Election Plans), Irrawaddy (Voting Details)
Ceasefire, But Not Really
The junta says that it’s extended its ceasefire through June's end, claiming its magnanimity is a result of wanting to provide earthquake relief and to comply with ASEAN wishes. It might be wise to take the claims with a pinch of salt though, as reports are that military actions are ongoing with troops massing in Taungtha Township near China-backed oil and gas pipelines. The National Unity Government says there have been 300 civilian casualties during the “ceasefire” period and, the junta keeps hitting civilian targets with airstrikes.
Read more: Asian News (Ceasefire Extension), Mizzima (Airstrikes Continue)
Floods Deepen Crisis
Severe monsoon flooding in Sagaing and Magwe regions has put nearly 2,000 acres of sesame plantations under water, causing hefty agricultural losses. Insurance companies are struggling to process unprecedented claim volumes; some have even suspended earthquake coverage claiming overwhelm.
Read more: Mizzima (UNICEF Report), UCA News (Multiple Disasters), Frontier Myanmar (Insurance Crisis)
Women Lead, Face New Threats
Women make up 60% of early protesters and 70-80% of movement leaders in Myanmar. Out of the 3 million people who have been displaced, the majority are women. The Karenni Interim Executive Council even implemented a 30% women leadership quota. Research backs it up the strategy: peace agreements with women's participation are a third more likely to succeed over a 15 year period.
Read more: The Diplomat (Women's Role), East Asia Forum (Youth Leadership)
Junta Eats Its Own
The junta has cracked down on some of its own supporters, arresting several high-profile regime loyalists including prominent supporter Zaw Phone Hein and Pyu Saw Htee militia leader Zaw Yu Htun. It appears that these arrests were set off by criticism of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and online commentary that’s been viewed as critical of the regime. The military is using Article 66(d) of the Telecommunications Law and Article 505(a) of the penal code to justify the arrests, in a (worrying or encouraging, depending on your view) display of growing internal tensions for the regime.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Internal Crackdown)
ILO Hits Junta Hard
The International Labour Organization has invoked Article 33 of its Constitution against the junta, the third such time in ILO history, because of the junta's consistent violations of labor standards. The action is intended to bring attention to the junta's failure to end violence against union leaders, release detained trade unionists, and bring a stop to forced and child labor practices. The resolution passed with overwhelming international support, though Russia, Belarus, Laos, and China for some reason all opposed it. Possible consequences include economic sanctions, international legal proceedings, and the potential for removal of diplomatic recognition. The junta has dismissed the decision as being "politically motivated."
Read more: Irrawaddy (ILO Decision), IndustriALL (Union Response), EcoTextile (Garment Sector)
Poverty Explodes
Yangon's poverty rate is on the upswing, jumping from 10% in 2017 to 43% in 2023. Nearly 3 million of the city's 6.2 million urban residents are now living in poverty, according to the UN Development Program. The country is suffering $94 billion in economic losses and GDP isn't expected to recover until 2028 at the absolute earliest.
Read more: Myanmar Now
Military Smashes Kachin Mines
Military forces are systematically destroying mining equipment in Hpakant Township, Kachin State. They're reportedly setting fire to backhoes, earthmoving trucks, and guardhouses right at the jade mining sites. More than a hundred troops entered the area in late May, and 30 soldiers are reportedly maintaining “patrols” throughout mining zones, demanding payments from operators. This campaign has forced local residents to leave the area and is severely impacting the region's mining infrastructure.
Read more: Mizzima (Equipment Destruction), BNI (Resident Displacement), Mizzima (Mining Torched)
Elected Officials Die, Junta Spreads Lies
The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw has confirmed that U Aung Soe Min, an elected representative from Ywangan constituency, died while in military custody. His death comes just five months after his arrested in December. Since the coup at least 11 parliamentary and 13 regional MPs have been killed, along with 59 currently detained. A new UN Human Rights Council report is showing how the military systematically uses disinformation as a weapon. They're using state-controlled media and digital platforms, on the one hand, while enforcing control through legal and technical mechanisms on the other.
Read more: Myanmar Now (MP Death), Mizzima (CRPH Confirmation), Mizzima (Disinformation Report)
Suu Kyi Remains A Stalwart Symbol at 80
On Aung San Suu Kyi's 80th birthday, her continued imprisonment in solitary confinement is both a testament and a result of her enduring influence in Myanmar’s political landscape. She is still a symbol of democracy for many, and has inspired resistance movements including the National Unity Government and People's Defense Forces. In an attempt at social jiu jitsu, however, the junta is trying to figure out how to manipulate her image for their own political gain.
Read more: Mizzima
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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