Vietnam 20250612
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Headlines:
Economy Still Growing Strong
Gov't Steps In on Real Estate
Resolution 68's Big Impact on Private Sector
Exports Jump $22B
Logistics Ready for Shift
US Tariffs Remain a Trade Headache
Big FDI Inflows Keep Coming
Businesses Bounce Back (Mostly)
Two-Child Policy Comes to an End
Work Permits Faster for Foreign Talent
Banks Go Digital
Tax Modernization Hits Roadblocks
E-Commerce is in the Master Plan
Emissions Trading is Game On
Tech Giants Bet on Vietnam
Global Ties Getting Stronger
Pushing the Pace of Infrastructure Development
Global Player in Auto Manufacturing
Gold Scams Hit Hard
Economy Still Growing Strong
The economy has been rock solid, hitting 7.1% GDP growth last year in a nice jump from 5.1% the year prior. Strong domestic demand and healthy exports are driving the trend. Exports are up 15.5%, and they've grown 23.2% just to the U.S. market alone. The country also scored a record-low unemployment rate of 2.2% in March, and inflation has chilled a bit, dropping to 3.1% from 4.4%. Looking ahead, the outlook seems to be for more muscle with 6.2% growth through 2025 and 6.0% next year. The government is keeping monetary policy loose, pushing public investment, and ramming through structural reforms.
Read more: Vietnam News (Economic outlook), VN Economy (Growth strategy), UOB (Bank forecast)
Gov't Steps In on Real Estate
The real estate sector has been on shaky ground with a reported 1,000 stalled projects valued at more than $30 billion. The government is stepping in, rolling out Resolutions 170/2024 and 171/2024 to clear legal bottlenecks, smooth over land use negotiations, and get commercial housing developments moving again. Resolution 68 is a big deal that will support the build-out of a clear national land database, support development of more affordable housing, as well as champion sustainable real estate investments (see more below on Res 68). The State Bank has also received orders to cook up new lending programs for young homebuyers, including medium-term credit deals with stable rates and perks for affordable housing. Finally, beyond all of that, the PM’s ordered construction material prices to stabilize, which should help the whole sector get back on its feet.
Read more: VN Economy (Legal reforms), VN Economy (Resolution 68), Vietnam News (Housing finance), Vietnam News (Materials prices)
Resolution 68's Big Impact on Private Sector
Resolution 68-NQ/TW is upending economic policy by putting the private sector front and center as Vietnam's main source of growth. The resolution flips the script on the government's role, moving it from controller to facilitator. The private sector, which currently includes 940,000 enterprises and 5 million household businesses, is already a powerhouse – it churns out more than 40% of GDP and employs four fifths of the workforce. By 2030 though, the goal is to build globally competitive private conglomerates through institutional reforms, better legal protections, and support for tech innovation.
Read more: VEN (Expert analysis), Vietnam News (Legal framework), The Investor (Four pillars)
Exports Jump $22B
Exports have really taken off so far this year, hitting a total value of $180 billion. That's a 14% increase, or about $22 billion, year-on-year. Electronics and computers are leading the way, drawing $38.5 billion (up 40%), with machinery and equipment right behind at $22 billion (up 16.4%), and textiles and garments bringing in $15 billion (up 12%). The country has kept the trade surplus healthy at $4.67 billion, and exports to China rose 3.2% to $23.5 billion. Even agriculture has seen an inspirational run, exporting more than $28 billion, up 15.1% yoy, thanks to strong showings in coffee, rubber, and durian to China. The government wants to see 12% export growth for the whole of 2025.
Read more: VIR (Export data), Vietnam News (Agricultural exports), VN Economy (Seafood exports)
Logistics Ready for Shift
The global supply chain reshuffle has been good news for Vietnamese logistics. The country has been allocating 6% of GDP each year into trade infrastructure and is now home to 44 seaports that can handle 500 million tonnes, but it's still leaning heavily on road transport for 75% of its freight. The plan is to develop maritime and inland waterway transport to 50% by making use of a 26,500-kilometer network of navigable waterways. This system is anchored by the Red River up North and the Mekong in the South, backed by 8,200 berths and 2,526 passenger terminals. World Bank-funded projects are modernizing these waterway corridors, and big players like DP World are inventing new sea-river routes.
Read more: VIR (Supply chains), Vietnam Briefing (Inland waterways), VIR (AI logistics)
US Tariffs Remain a Trade Headache
Seafood exports saw only slight growth in May 2025, hitting $851 million, up 2.7% year-on-year. This slowdown largely boils down to a new 10% U.S. tariff on Vietnamese imports that kicked in during April, with a possible jump to 46% after July 9. Officials have been busy, talking to major U.S. apparel companies to try and head off the hikes, and they've also inked MOUs to buy $1.4 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products. The Trade Minister has laid out what Vietnam wants: recognition as a market economy, removal from strategic export control lists, and priority trade partner status. Exporters, for their part, have started speeding up U.S. shipments before any more tariff increases hit, and they're also spreading their bets by diversifying into markets where free trade agreements give them an edge.
Read more: VN Economy (Seafood tariffs), Economic Times (Tariff negotiations), Hindustantimes (Trade talks)
Big FDI Inflows Keep Coming
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, were calculated to be $18.4 billion for the first five months of this year. This chunk of change breaks down as: $7.02 billion from 1,549 new projects, another $8.51 billion into 672 existing projects, and $2.85 billion through 1,358 capital contribution deals. Singapore is leading the pack for foreign investment with $2.12 billion, China hot on its heels at $1.81 billion, and Japan bringing up a strong third at $753.4 million. Hanoi has become Vietnam's top FDI magnet in May, snagging $1.4 billion in 36 new projects and 23 expansions. Manufacturing is still the golden child at $10.4 billion, with real estate a distant but strong second at $4.99 billion.
Read more: VN Economy (FDI statistics), Vietnam Insiders (Hanoi investment), The Investor (Investment targets)
Businesses Bounce Back (Mostly)
We’ve seen a decent rebound in business growth lately, with 111,800 new and restored businesses popping up from January to May. That's an 11.3% jump year-over-year, averaging about 22,000 each month. The services sector saw 50,900 new registrations, and industry and construction have added 15,200 companies. Total registered capital is VNĐ647.1 trillion, creating jobs for 453,900 workers. All has not been entirely rosy, though, the period also saw a rise in business closures, with 74,600 enterprises hitting pause and 27,500 calling it quits. The National Assembly's Economic and Finance Committee assures us that the government is working to stabilize the macroeconomy.
Read more: Vietnam News (Business data), VIR (Government support), VN Economy (Business statistics)
Two-Child Policy Comes to an End
The two-child policy has officially come to an end as the nation contends with falling birth rates and unfavorable demographic trends. The birth rate has dipped from 2.11 to 1.91 children per woman between 2021 and 2024, and population projections leave us expecting a peak around 2042 before a decline by 2054. In other words, the "golden population" period is will likely wrap up around 2039. To get ahead of the healthcare worker crunch, the Ministry of Health is floating ideas like scholarships and tuition help for geriatrics studies – right now, less than 1,800 people are trained in that field. The wider plan also includes training more community healthcare workers and offering health insurance subsidies to elderly folks who don't have coverage.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (Policy change), Eurasia Review (Demographic analysis), Vietnam Insiders (Healthcare response)
Work Permits Faster for Foreign Talent
New rules are in the works to slash work permit processing times from 36 days down to just 10 in a direct response to a growing headache: more and more undocumented foreign workers. Right now, Vietnam has 162,000 foreign workers, but more than 12,000 of them are working without valid permits. Most are from China (31%), South Korea (18%), and Japan (9.5%). The new rules are expected to make it easier for experts in tech, finance, science, and innovation to get permits. The idea is to try and reel in global talent for priority sectors like semiconductors, and AI, while also making sure knowledge gets transferred and everyone stays above board.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (Process changes), Vietnam Briefing (Application reforms), Vietnam Insiders (Global talent)
Banks Go Digital
Banks continue to lean into digital transformation, especially through data integration. They're linking up databases from 18 ministries, four state-owned corporations, and all 63 provinces. Platforms like MISA Lending are making it easier for micro and small businesses to connect with banks, and are resulting in some impressive wins: MB Bank, for example, dished out 4,000 unsecured loans in 2024 and slashed processing time by 80%. MSB has even gotten loan approvals down to four minutes using machine learning. The State Bank of Vietnam has been ordered to look into bigger credit growth targets for commercial banks to help hit the nation's 8% GDP growth goal for 2025 by funneling credit straight to production, business, and other priority sectors.
Read more: Vietnam News (Data integration), UOB Vietnam (Digital platform), Vietnam News (Credit growth)
Tax Modernization Hits Roadblocks
Decree No. 70/2025/NĐ-CP, which forces nearly 2 million business households nationwide to use e-invoices through POS systems, is now in full swing, but the rollout’s hit some speed bumps. To smooth over the issues, authorities are offering free accounting software and tax officer support. The idea behind this push is to make tax more transparent, reduce activity in the informal economy, reduce tax evasion, and basically drag Vietnam's tax system into the modern age with verifiable transaction records. The full switch is supposed to be done by 2026, but businesses are definitely not loving the work necessary to adapt to these new rules.
Read more: Vietnam News (Implementation challenges), Vietnam News (Transition support), Vietnam Briefing(Regulatory update)
E-Commerce is in the Master Plan
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has an ambitious e-commerce development master plan for 2026-2030. The plan forsees 70% of adults shopping online, 20-30% annual e-commerce retail sales growth, and 20% of total retail turnover coming through e-commerce by 2030. The strategy also wants to see 70% of businesses getting on the e-commerce bandwagon. Environmentally, some big goals are also being bandied about: slashing plastic packaging to 45%, increasing recycled packaging to 50%, and getting 40% of logistics businesses running on clean energy.
Read more: Vietnam News (Master plan), VN Economy (Strategic goals), Vietnam Briefing (Market entry)
Emissions Trading is Game On
The first pilot emissions trading scheme, running through 2029, is hitting the steel, cement, and thermal power industries hard. These are the guys who crank out about half of the country's total CO2 emissions. Companies that sign up will get their emission allowances for 2025-2026 by year-end and if they blow past their limits, they'll be required to buy more credits. The silver lining is that up to about a third of emissions can be offset by investing in low-carbon projects. This pilot is a piece of a bigger promise to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. Down the road, they might even rope in sectors like cargo transport and commercial buildings, but for now, this initial phase is more about getting the system up and running than looking for immediate environmental wins.
Read more: Reuters (Scheme launch), AgTech Navigator (Carbon credits), VN Economy (Wind energy)
Tech Giants Bet on Vietnam
Qualcomm has just planted a new AI research and development center in Hanoi, their third such facility outside the United States. The deal comes in the wake of them snapping up a 65% stake in MovianAI from Vingroup. Vietnam already accounts for 12% of Qualcomm's global revenue, making it the company's second-biggest market right behind China, so the move lines up well with both the past and future semiconductor trends where market projections are that it will grow to more than $30 billion by 2027.
Read more: The Investor (Qualcomm center), CONGTHUONG (AI R&D), Modern Diplomacy (Semiconductor industry)
Global Ties Getting Stronger
PM Pham Minh Chinh and French PM Francois Bayrou sat down for high-level talks in Paris, zeroing in on economic cooperation. They're reportedly most interested in how to develop aerospace, urban transport, nuclear energy, and manufacturing. Both sides say they need to improve global supply chain stability and have pushed for the EU-Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement to be ratified. Closer to home, Vietnam and Australia have agreed to upgrade their official relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This deal includes an AUD100 million development cooperation program and access to an AUD2 billion Southeast Asia Investment Financing Facility. This partnership puts an emphasis on tech cooperation, rolling out initiatives like the Australia-Vietnam Strategic Technologies Centre, which supports development of 5G, AI, and semiconductors.
Read more: VN Economy (France cooperation), VIR (Australia partnership), The Investor (Spain railway)
Pushing the Pace of Infrastructure Development
An infrastructure development plan, calling for VND25 trillion (about $960 million) in investment through 2040, has been rolled out for Hai Phong. The improvements are expected to expand the capacity of ten existing water facilities, taking them from 436,150 m³/day to 1,349,600 m³/day. On August 19 the Ho Chi Minh City - Trung Luong - My Thuan Expressway expansion is set to kick off, upgrading it to 8 lanes with a 120 km/h speed limit on some stretches. The government is putting its shoulder to the wheel to get four major expressway projects done (231km within the Eastern Cluster of the North-South Expressway) by 2025. Some big players like DCH Partnership, Vingroup, Gamuda Group, and Vietjet say they’re willing to throw their hats in the ring to develop Ho Chi Minh City's metro system, with plans for 12 metro lines over 600km in length by 2050.
Read more: VN Economy (Hai Phong water), VN Economy (Expressway expansion), VIR (Expressway projects), VNExpress (Metro projects)
Global Player in Auto Manufacturing
THACO Industries has seriously stepped up its game, transforming from just a vehicle assembler into a major automotive manufacturing powerhouse in Vietnam. The company runs a sprawling 320-hectare facility, backed by $1 billion in investment. This place can crank out 300,000 tonnes of steel, 500,000 mechanical products, 30,000 semi-trailers, and 800,000 vehicle body frames every year. It's packed with cutting-edge tech, including 12 fiber laser cutting machines, 5-face CNC milling systems, and more than 100 robotic welding arms. THACO is now supplying components to automotive names like KIA, Mazda, Peugeot, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai. Vietnam's auto parts and transport equipment exports have reached $6.7 billion so far this year, with the U.S. becoming the biggest buyer at $1.37 billion.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (THACO Industries), Vietnam Insiders (Auto parts exports), Vietnam News (VinFast suppliers)
Gold Scams Hit Hard
Big Vietnamese banks like BIDV, Military Bank, and Sài Gòn-Hà Nội Bank have been waving red flags about the rise of gold trading scams, especially with gold prices hitting record highs. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is telling consumers to only deal with licensed outlets, double-check website authenticity, and NEVER make deals without physically verifying the gold.
Read more: Vietnam News (Gold scams), Regulation Asia (Gold market reform)
That’s it for this week!
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