Myanmar 20250701
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Human Rights Violations Worsen
Election Plans Get Global Skepticism
"Peace Theater" Papers Over Ongoing Operations
Junta Courts Russian, Belarusian Support
Japan, India Walk a Fine Line
Resistance Forces Come Together
Battle for Territory Heats Up
Food Crisis Worsens in Rakhine
Digital Repression on ASSK Birthday
Drug Control Efforts Expand
Human Rights Violations Worsen
UN reports have put new numbers on the human rights situation with 3.5 million displaced, 22 million needing aid, and 1.3 million who've fled the country since the coup. More than 6,800 civilians have been killed and 22,000 detained: 80% of the population lives in or near poverty. The reports say that the path to recovery will require demanding accountability for rights violations, setting up civilian democratic institutions, economic reforms, and more international pressure.
Read more: OHCHR (UN Assessment), ReliefWeb (Rights Violations), UN DPPA (Humanitarian Crisis)
Election Plans Get Global Skepticism
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing announced elections between December 2025 and January 2026, resulting in international ridicule criticism. UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews has come out to publicly denounce the elections as illegitimate. The regime has continued to prepare for its big event, focusing on Shan State where the Union Election Commission set up Electronic Voting Machine training and run mock votes at military sites. Of 77 registered political parties, 54 received approval to participate; the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party is expected to be the main contender. Major pro-democracy parties including the NLD and SNLD have been dissolved in advance of the polls.
Read more: Manila Times (Election Announcement), Asia Times(Electoral Process), The Irrawaddy (Shan State Focus)
"Peace Theater" Papers Over Ongoing Operations
The Myanmar junta is hosting a "Peace Forum" in Naypyitaw while at the same time continuing military operations and airstrikes across the country. The forum brought together representatives from China, India, Thailand, and Russia but excludes anyone from the active resistance groups. Recent airstrikes destroyed houses and a monastery in Mogoke, killed 4 and injured 14 in Kyaukme town, and killed at least 7 miners in Mawchi. The junta has been engaged in ongoing combat against resistance forces using air force, drone strikes, and artillery despite peace talk rhetoric.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Dual Strategy), The Irrawaddy (Peace Forum), The Irrawaddy (Ongoing Airstrikes)
Junta Courts Russian, Belarusian Support
The junta is in need of Russian investment and military technology to overcome the results of international isolation. During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a Myanmar delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister General Mya Tun Oo met with Russian officials to talk turkey. Min Aung Hlaing indicated that there are ongoing arms procurement talks with Russia during his visit to the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant. That trip was focused on getting more helicopters. Belarus is providing military technology including a customized air defence command system, V3D radar technology, and ground-based missile systems. Justice For Myanmar wants sanctions on involved arms brokers and the institutions that are allowing ongoing aerial attacks against civilians.
Myanmar has also asked for observer status in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the 4th Eurasian Economic Forum in Minsk, Belarus. The EAEU, made up of Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus. The regime is also looking into closer ties with alternative international bodies, having obtained Shanghai Cooperation Organization dialogue partner status and showing interest in BRICS engagement.
Read more: GNLM (Economic Forum), The Irrawaddy (Russian Helicopters), Mizzima (Belarus Support), The Irrawaddy (EAEU Membership), The Irrawaddy (Russian Investment)
Japan, India Walk a Fine Line
Japan is staying the course with its “middle-ground” approach between full engagement and complete withdrawal in Myanmar. While putting a pause on new aid projects and downgrading diplomatic relations, Japan has kept up with humanitarian assistance and some limited economic involvement to try and keep Myanmar from becoming exclusively dependent on China. From the Indian perspective, the Arakan Army's control over 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine state is a problem, particularly as it relates to the Indian funded Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project.
Read more: ORF (Japan), The Federal (India)
Resistance Forces Come Together
The New Mon State Party (NMSP) and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) have tied up in a new alliance against the junta. After the coup, two NMSP military divisions broke away to fight the regime, with KNLA providing training and weapons. The collab is a departure from historical rivalries between ethnic groups, which the military has traditionally exploited through a policy of divide-and-rule. While the NMSP suffers from limited combat experience, the alliance is indicative of a growing unified resistance movement. Both groups are motivated by the protection of ethnic territories and demands for political rights, though observers still question how well the partnerships would stand up in the absence of a common foe.
Read more: Foreign Policy
Battle for Territory Heats Up
Counteroffensives in Karen State's Kawkareik and Papun townships are underway to reclaim tactically important positions that have been lost to the resistance. The regime sent in drone and artillery assets to try and regain control of the Asian Highway between Kyonedoe and Kawkareik. While the junta has recaptured Ka Taing Ti on the Papun-Kamamung road, resistance forces continue to harry forward operational command bases. For the moment, it looks like the regime's main objective is to contain the spread of fighting to Hpa-an and Mon State.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Food Crisis Worsens in Rakhine
Essential food prices continue to rise unsustainably, with rice doubling from 700 to 1,400 kyats per tin, and a bag of coarse rice jumping from 100,000 to 200,000-230,000 kyats. Egg prices have nearly tripled to 1,300 kyats. There’s no indication that supply chain disruptions will ease - no cargo ships have come from Yangon since May. Many wealthy residents have just decided to leave the area. The Arakan Army currently controls 14 towns in Rakhine State.
Read more: Mizzima
Digital Repression on ASSK Birthday
The "Suu 80" online birthday campaign for Myanmar's imprisoned democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi is demonstrative of the extent of digital repression in the country. The military regime has strict measures in place to keep a lid on online dissent, including criminalizing VPN use with 10-year prison sentences, internet shutdowns, and the doxxing of critics. Findings from The Blue Shirt Initiative are that there’s very limited domestic engagement with the campaign due to fear of persecution, but they say international diaspora support is strong.
Read more: Fulcrum
Drug Control Efforts Expand
Myanmar has celebrated the International Day Against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking with more enforcement. Authorities destroyed illegal drugs valued at USD 298 million. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime says that its still worried about high methamphetamine production in SEA, particularly in the Golden Triangle area.
Read more: Laotian Times
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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