Thailand 20250711
Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Business stories from Southeast Asia directly to your inbox every week.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
As a reminder, you can adjust which country versions of The Memo you would like to receive by adjusting your settings here.
Headlines:
Thai Economy Faces Perfect Storm
Political Drama Spooks Markets
Chinese Tourists Stay Away
Chinese EVs Flood the Market
Workers Get Help, Criminals Get Heat
Casino Plans Fold
Tech and Infrastructure Push
Financial Markets Need Growth Catalysts
CARAT Naval Exercises Under Steam
Refer three friends and receive a full paid subscription to The Memo for one month absolutely FREE:
Thai Economy Faces Perfect Storm
Thailand is fighting for its economic life. US tariff threats, political chaos, and vanishing Chinese tourists are hammering the country from all sides. The government is scrambling to dodge a US tariff that could kneecap growth, especially after Vietnam was able to come to an agreement that they appear to be pleased with. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira is offering concessions, cutting Thailand's trade surplus with the US by 70% in five years. They're dangling deals to buy American: LNG from Alaska, up to 80 Boeing aircraft, and more ethanol, but time is running out. If talks fail by the time the grace period finally comes to an end, it could shave at least 1% off economic growth. Things already look rough. The central bank says that it foresees 18 months of weak growth ahead - just 2.3% in 2025 before sliding to 1.7% in 2026. That's well below what Thailand can do. Exports might grow 4% in 2025 but are expected to contract 2% in 2026. Business confidence has cratered to a 30-month low.
Read more: Nation Thailand, Invezz, Reuters, Khao Sod English, Nation Thailand, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Nation Thailand, Bangkok Post
Political Drama Spooks Markets
The suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra by the Constitutional Court just made everything worse. A leaked phone call with Cambodia's Hun Sen has resulted in turmoil, and investors are running scared. The stock market dropped 5.19% in June, and the benchmark SET Index is now down 22% this year. Foreign investors withdrew nearly 8 billion baht last month alone.
Read more: ABC News, SCMP, Bangkok Post, Al Jazeera
Chinese Tourists Stay Away
Foreign visitors across the board dropped 5% year-on-year to 16.8 million in the first half of 2025. Chinese tourists - recently the backbone of Thai tourism - are down more than 34% from 2019 levels and now make up just 13.58% of visitors. Some blame the government's push to legalize casinos, saying Chinese President Xi warned Thailand repeatedly to drop it. Somewhat surprisingly, Malaysia and Japan are two of the biggest beneficiaries of Thailand's slump. Malaysia pulled in 10.1 million visitors, and Japan is leading Asia with more than 18 million arrivals. In an attempt to shore up numbers, the TAT is trying to pivot to other markets like India, Japan, and the West, saying that these travelers spend more - about 81,482 baht per trip versus 50,000 baht from other tourists.
Read more: Travel and Tour World, Nation Thailand, VnExpress, Nation Thailand
Chinese EVs Flood the Market
Chinese electric cars are swamping Thailand's EV market, throwing a wrench in any hopes of building a domestic industry. The number of Chinese brands doubled to 18 in the past year, and locked up more than 70% of sales by the number of vehicles. Thailand wanted 30% of its car production to be EVs by 2030. Now they're pushing that timeline back to avoid flooding the market even more.
Read more: Reuters, Market Screener, Batteries News, ASEAN Briefing
Workers Get Help, Criminals Get Heat
The Labour Minister is rolling out programs to help 1.8 million workers who earn less than THB400 a day. They're also trying to protect 21 million informal workers and create more jobs for the youth of the nation. Police aren't sitting idly by on the labor front either; they've launched a new task force called "I2LAI" to fight cross-border scam networks. Domestic raids hit 19 spots allegedly tied to Cambodian tycoon Kok An - the "Godfather of Poipet" - and 27 million baht and luxury cars were seized.
Read more: Human Resources Online, Bangkok Post, Nation Thailand, Economic Times, Ucan News, Khao Sod English, Pattaya Mail, Asia Nikkei
Casino Plans Fold
The government has pulled the plug on its casino bill. While boosters saw it as supportive of tourism and investment, some sectors of the public and politicians both pushed back hard. A Senate committee found 12 key concerns with the plans. Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra still says he wants casinos, pointing to Thailand's 300 billion baht underground gambling economy. But for now, the bill has been put on ice.
Read more: Bangkok Post, ABC News, Yogonet, Asian News Network
Tech and Infrastructure Push
AIS just launched Thailand's first Thai-owned cloud service, investing 4 billion baht in the project. It's built on Oracle Alloy technology but keeps data local - a selling point that is likely to be of interest to many of Thailand’s two million registered businesses. The Industrial Estate Authority says it will develop 10,000 rai of industrial land with a 10 billion baht budget. Singapore's Frasers Property is also betting big on expansion - they already run 946 facilities in Thailand, but have plans for more. Finally, reports that Gulf Energy will be investing 42 billion baht in 11 new renewable power projects.
Read more: Telecom TV, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Market Screener (paywall)
Financial Markets Need Growth Catalysts
Thailand has approved a 5-year capital gains tax exemption on digital assets from 2025 to 2029 to establish itself as a "Digital Assets Hub." The country will implement the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, and the new exemption will apply to transactions through SEC-regulated operators who support compliance with KYC and AML requirements. The Thai baht is expected to face limitations in strength, with expectations that it will trade at 32.30 per dollar by year-end, just a 0.7% increase from current levels. The currency's performance is being held back by political uncertainty, budget delays, a tepid tourism recovery, and tariff fears. It’s likely that the central bank will make deeper interest rate cuts to grease the skids.
Read more: Cointelegraph (Crypto Tax Break), Coin Geek (Tax Measures), Bangkok Post (Baht Outlook), Bangkok Post (Budget Plans)
CARAT Naval Exercises Under Steam
The 31st Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) exercise is underway in Sattahip, bringing together naval forces from the United States, Thailand, and Canada. The U.S. Navy's USS Santa Barbara joins Royal Thai Navy vessels HTMS Naresuan, HTMS Saiburi, and HTMS Rattanakosin, with additional participation from a Royal Canadian Navy team. The exercise will cover maritime training including anti-submarine warfare, air defense, surface action group coordination, mine countermeasures, and search and rescue operations. Shore-based activities include community service projects, sports events, and military band exchanges.
Read more: DVIDS (Naval Exercise), Guardian (US Diplomacy)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
How are we doing?
We love hearing from readers, and we are always looking for feedback. How are we doing with the Mekong Memo? Is there anything you'd like to see more of or less of? Which aspects of the newsletter do you enjoy the most?
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— hit reply and help us get better. We'd love to hear from you!
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. Please also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below, which helps us get visibility on the Substack network.
Thank you!
I really appreciate the Mekong Memo! Thanks, Dan