Myanmar 20250715
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Military Mess Gets Messier
Army Throws Fresh Recruits Into Battle
Border Fighting Sends Hundreds Running
China Threatens Rare Earth Supply Chain
US Tariffs to Hit Garment Sector Hard
Crackdown Dismantles Criminal Empire
Military Blockades Make Crisis Worse
Political Prisoners Die from Medical Neglect
Junta Launches Space Agency with Russian Help
Chinese Investment Transforms North Myanmar
EAOs Firm Up Economic Governance
Media Repression Intensifies After Funding Cuts
Junta in International PR Campaign
Myanmar Tries to Block Timor-Leste from ASEAN
Resistance Groups Lose Drone Warfare Edge
Buddhist Monastery Airstrike Kills 23 Civilians
Military Mess Gets Messier
The junta wants to hold elections in late 2025 or early 2026 using electronic voting - but there's a catch. They're only planning to hold it in 267 of 330 townships, and they've frozen the popular National League for Democracy out. The thing looks like a joke, since more than three-quarters of the country is now under civilian or resistance control. ASEAN leaders aren't buying it either, and they're telling the junta to spend more time on the basics first: release political prisoners, work on a ceasefire, and allow for unimpeded humanitarian assistance.
Read more: Asia Nikkei (Election Plans), SCMP (ASEAN Position), Modern Ghana (Election Legitimacy), Business Times (Election Stance), Indonesia Business Post (Regional Security)
Army Throws Fresh Recruits Into Battle
The junta's getting more desperate, and they've recruited about 70,000 conscripts to send straight through to combat zones in Shan State, Karenni State, and northern Mandalay Region. The nation’s youth are fleeing the country to avoid the draft, which targets men 18-35 and women 18-27.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Border Fighting Sends Hundreds Running
Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) rebels launched an attack on a Myanmar military facility in Kayin state, forcing 567 people (100 junta soldiers, 467 civilians) to escape into Thailand. Thai forces accommodated the refugees, disarming the soldiers, and provided humanitarian support. Thailand already houses 81,000 Myanmar refugees in border camps. On the other side of the country, fighting between Chin resistance factions pushed more than 4,000 civilians into India's Mizoram state.
Read more: Firstpost (Thai Border), SCMP (Refugee Flow), Frontier Myanmar (Chin Conflict)
China Threatens Rare Earth Supply Chain
China is using its control over rare earth mineral processing to pressure Myanmar's Kachin Independence Army (KIA), threatening to bring a stop to purchases from territories they control. This would be wildly disruptive - Kachin state produces nearly half the world's heavy rare earths, which are needed for modern manufacturing and renewable energy. Chinese imports from Myanmar have already dropped by half in 2025.
Read more: Deccan Herald (Supply Disruption), NPR (Environmental Impact), StratNewsGlobal (KIA Conflict)
US Tariffs to Hit Garment Sector Hard
The U.S. is expected to put a 40% tariff on Myanmar imports starting August 1, a decision that will slam the garment sector. The tax will especially impact the Cut-Make-Pack industries (employing 800,000 workers and including garment, bag, and shoe manufacturing). CMP exports have already dropped from $5.3 billion in 2022-2023 to $4.46 billion in 2024. The industry has already been battered by post-coup sanctions, power outages, fuel shortages, and currency controls - this tax might just be the final nail in the industry’s coffin. The junta tries to reframe these tariffs in the public eye as issues of diplomatic engagement instead of punishment.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Economic Impact), Mizzima (Junta Response)
Crackdown Dismantles Criminal Empire
A joint law enforcement operation between Chinese and Myanmar authorities shut down a criminal enterprise allegedly run by the Bai family in northern Myanmar. The syndicate ran 41 scam and gambling compounds, was responsible for $14.6 billion in telecom fraud, and $24.8 billion in illegal gambling. The enforcement action resulted in 57,000 arrests, including 36 high-ranking suspects. Myanmar has become a hub for online scams, causing estimated losses of $37 billion across Southeast Asia in 2023.
Read more: AG Brief (Crime Empire), China Daily Asia (Prosecution Details), Asia Nikkei (Scam Centers)
Military Blockades Make Crisis Worse
The junta has placed blockades on Kyaukphyu and Sittwe towns in Rakhine State since early 2024, creating and exacerbating a humanitarian crisis. About a third of residents are trapped there, forced to ration food or rely on neighbors for survival. The military, of course, continues stockpiling supplies for its own bases. The Arakan Army controls 14 Rakhine townships and is pushing forward on the remaining three: Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Mrauk-U.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Political Prisoners Die from Medical Neglect
Two Myanmar political prisoners have reportedly died in separate prisons this month: U Myint Wai succumbed to a ruptured appendix at Obo Prison after being denied timely care, and Ko Hla Min died from cardiac arrest at Paungde Prison. U Myint Wai was affiliated with the NLD, and Ko Hla Min was a member of another opposition group. The Political Prisoners Network - Myanmar reports an average of 25 political prisoners die each year due to medical neglect, and says they’ve recorded 54 deaths between 2023 and 2025. Their appeals for better prisoner medical care access have so far gone unaddressed.
Read more: Mizzima
Junta Launches Space Agency with Russian Help
Apparently, since things are going so well on the ground, the regime has decided to set up its very own Space Agency, operating under direct control of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. The agency's formation comes in the wake of agreements on space technology cooperation that were signed during Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Moscow in 2022. The MSA’s mandate is to manage satellite imagery, protect national security, and support satellite launches, agricultural development, and disaster management. Russia is, for now, the sole collaborating partner.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Russian Cooperation), Mizzima (Agency Structure)
Chinese Investment Transforms North Myanmar
After its capture of Hsenwi in 2023, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army has completely changed northern Shan State's economy with the help of Chinese investment. The MNDAA started long-term land lease programs for Chinese investors and has set up a residency-for-investment scheme. These changes have already resulted in the displacement of local farmers and residents; culture may be next on the chopping block as new Chinese-language education programs are starting up. The growth of Chinese investment in the area is aligned with the objectives of both the Belt and Road Initiative and Yunnan Province's economic interests.
Read more: Irrawaddy
EAOs Firm Up Economic Governance
The Ta'ang National Liberation Army is looking for domestic and foreign investment in its resource-rich territories, especially in mining towns including Mogoke (rubies) and Namtu (zinc, lead, silver). In spite of regular military airstrikes, the TNLA has formed an administration that includes a gem mining management committee to oversee the economy and protect investor interests. Investment thus far has been limited, with only four or five outside investors operating in Mogoke because of the security challenges.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Investment Initiatives), Discovery Alert (Tin Production)
Media Repression Intensifies After Funding Cuts
At least 60 journalists remain imprisoned in Myanmar. The media situation has worsened with recent U.S. government funding cuts to news organizations, negatively impacting independent journalism. The case of Than Htike Myint, who received a 5-year sentence under the Counter-Terrorism Law after beatings and interrogation, is indicative of the dangers faced by journalists. As news outlets including Radio Free Asia and Voice of America have been forced to shutter, Myanmar's junta leader has thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for the cuts to funding.
Read more: IFEX (Media Support), Irrawaddy (Funding Cuts)
Junta in International PR Campaign
The junta is working on setting up a think tank in Australia, starting with a July 7 meeting at The Chairman Restaurant in Sydney that was host to 23 participants. The organization is expected to function like the junta's domestic Myanmar Narrative Think Tank and is part of the regime's broader soft-power campaign to try and brush up on its international image.
Read more: Mizzima
Myanmar Tries to Block Timor-Leste from ASEAN
Myanmar's State Administration Council has formally opposed Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN, planned for October 2025, due, it says, to the country’s engagement with Myanmar's opposition National Unity Government. Timor-Leste dismissed the junta's objection as "inconsequential and irrelevant." President José Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao have been vocal critics of Myanmar's regime and are vocal supporters of the country's democratic movement. Timor-Leste's membership ceremony is expected to proceed as planned during the October ASEAN summit.
Read more: Fulcrum (ASEAN Dynamics), Irrawaddy (Timor Response)
Resistance Groups Lose Drone Warfare Edge
Resistance groups are losing their early advantage in drone warfare as the military catches up with advanced technology. In the early days of the war, resistance forces had an edge via tech-savvy urban volunteers who adapted commercial drones for combat and reconnaissance. Since then, though, the military has improved its capabilities with support from China, Russia, and India, while expanding the use of signal jammers to counter resistance operations.
Read more: Deutsche Welle
Buddhist Monastery Airstrike Kills 23 Civilians
An airstrike on a monastery in Sagaing township on July 11 has resulted in at least 23 confirmed deaths. The attack occurred in a region that has been a focal point of resistance against military rule since the coup. The monastery was reportedly being used as a shelter by civilians who had been displaced, and is one of the deadliest single attacks in recent months.
Read more: The Star
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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