Vietnam 20250724
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Headlines:
Economy Outpaces Regional Peers
US-Vietnam Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs
Merger Creates Southern Powerhouse
Digital Assets Framework
Green Mobility Transition
Logistics Infrastructure Gets a Leg-up
Stock Market Rally Nears Record Highs
Enterprise Law Changes
US-Vietnam Partnership Hits Three Decades
Five-Year Visa Exemptions to Snag Global Talent
AI and Innovation Drive
Manufacturing Adapts to Shifts
High-Value Fruit Export Opportunities
Banks Report Strong First-Half Performance
Economy Outpaces Regional Peers
Vietnam's economy posted the strongest performance in 15 years, coming in at just over seven and a half percent GDP growth in the first half of this year. The performance is in contrast to downward revisions for other ASEAN nations, with AMRO upgrading only Vietnam's forecast to 7% while cutting projections for Thailand (-0.8%), Philippines (-0.7%), and others. The ADB is still confident with it 6.3% growth forecast for 2025 and 6.0% for 2026. Economic indicators show strong momentum with FDI pledges up 32.6% and disbursements rising 8.1%. Analysts say there’s potential for double-digit growth next year, but the government would be happy if they just hit their target of 8.5%.
Read more: Business Times (Growth Forecasts), VIR (Economic Momentum), Vietnam News (ADB Outlook), Vietnam News (Growth Potential)
US-Vietnam Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs
A little more news this week trickled in about the trade agreement that was struck with the United States just over a week ago. The deal reduces tariffs on Vietnamese exports to 20% while putting a 40% duty on anything that’s transshipped through Vietnam. American exports will get duty-free access to Vietnamese markets.
Read more: Modern Diplomacy (Diplomatic Strategy), DW (Transshipment Concerns), Fulcrum (Competitiveness Analysis)
Merger Creates Southern Powerhouse
Ho Chi Minh City's administrative merger with Bình Dương and Ba Ria-Vung Tau provinces has resulted in Vietnam's first megacity, an area responsible for nearly a quarter of the country's GDP. The region is home to several big infrastructure projects including the Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway and proposed Cai Mep–Thi Vai Free Trade Zone. Land prices have already climbed 20-30%. The area's location, connectivity, and (still) affordable land prices are continuing to bring investors to the region.
Read more: VIR (Property Impact), VIR (Real Estate Boom), Vietnam News (Industrial Strategy), VIR (Investment Growth)
Digital Assets Framework
The 2026 regulatory framework for digital assets through the Law on Digital Technology Industry will recognize digital assets as civil property, finally giving some legal protection to an estimated 21 million digital asset holders. Almost a fifth of Vietnamese have dabbled in the space, and annual market inflows have been in excess of $100 billion. Companies like Techcombank and Vingroup are entering the space, and Binance has launched a "Blockchain for Vietnam" project with a $1 million commitment.
Read more: VIR (Legal Framework), Brave New Coin (Global Position), The Investor (Market Players)
Green Mobility Transition
The market continues to respond favorably to hybrid vehicles, with sales up 64% so far this year. The government says it’s going to raise the registration tax rate from 12% to 15% for gas (petrol) vehicles while keeping EV exemptions in place through February 2027. Ho Chi Minh City says it will convert its entire public bus fleet to electric or green energy vehicles by 2030.
Read more: Vietnam News (Policy Changes), VnExpress (Market Response), VnEconomy (Public Transport), Vision Times (Implementation Plan)
Logistics Infrastructure Gets a Leg-up
Mandarins want to take better advantage of the country's 42,000km of navigable waterways and 3,260km coastline. They want to further develop river routes, seaports, and logistics hubs as well as make regulatory reforms to make private sector support easier. Some of the bigger projects include DP World and VIMC Lines' Mekong Express service, which reduces transit time between Cai Mep and Can Tho from 48 to 15 hours. Lo-Goi Group in partnership with Xuan Cau Holdings is planning to develop a 200-hectare intermodal freight facility at Haiphong's Lach Huyen Port.
Read more: Vietnam News (Waterway Focus), Logistics Manager (Mekong Express), Mingtiandi (Haiphong Development)
Stock Market Rally Nears Record Highs
Vietnam's stock market has spiked almost a fifth so far this year and recently topped 1,509.54 points, the highest since April 2022. Foreign investors seem especially eager, picking up $411 million in shares in July, mostly in bigger companies like Vingroup and Hoa Phat Group. The Ministry of Finance has proposed replacing the current 0.1% flat tax on all stock transactions with a 20% capital gains tax on actual profits. The State Securities Commission says it’s going to introduce a Central Clearing Counterparty mechanism by Q1 2027 to help support Vietnam's push for an upgrade from “frontier” to “emerging market” status.
Read more: Business Times (Market Optimism), VnExpress (Index Performance), The Investor (Tax Proposal), Vietnam News (CCP Mechanism)
Enterprise Law Changes
The National Assembly has made amendments to the Enterprise Law, effective July 1. The reforms (in line with FATF standards) require new beneficial ownership disclosures that mean companies need to report ultimate controllers within 10 days of any changes. The law increases penalties for capital misrepresentation and puts a 5:1 debt-to-equity ratio limit for non-public joint stock companies. These changes come at the same time as new rules for the larger e-commerce platforms, which will now need to have legal representation in Vietnam. Foreign platforms are required to verify seller identities, store transaction data for three years, and respond to violations within 24 hours.
Read more: Vietnam-Briefing (Key Changes), Vietnam News (E-commerce Rules)
US-Vietnam Partnership Hits Three Decades
The United States and Vietnam are celebrating 30 years of normalized diplomatic relations, over a period that has seen them change from adversaries to partners. Since normalization in July 1995, bilateral trade has grown to more than $124 billion, and Vietnam is now America's 10th largest trading partner. Both nations still need to resolve some of the more controversial aspects of their relationship, like the effects of Agent Orange, and closing still-open MIA cases, but the future appears bright.
Read more: UCR News (Relationship Evolution), Asian Military Review (Strategic Balance)
Five-Year Visa Exemptions to Snag Global Talent
A visa exemption policy allowing qualified professionals five-year access with stays up to 90 days per visit is being put into play in an attempt to get more CEOs, researchers, professors, engineers, IT specialists, and creative industry professionals to Vietnam’s shores. Planners expect the exemption to support national economic development by bringing more foreign expertise and, therefore, knowledge transfer.
Read more: TVBRICS (Policy Details), Travel and Tour World (Economic Impact), TVBRICS (Innovation Laws)
AI and Innovation Drive
Artificial intelligence is being put forward as a necessary driver for Vietnam’s growth over the next decade and a half with BCG saying it expects AI contributions of $130 billion to GDP by 2040. According to the World AI Index Survey 2025, Vietnam is 6th out of 40 surveyed countries, excelling in AI trust (3rd globally) and acceptance (5th globally).
Read more: VnEconomy (AI Economy), Vietnam News (Global Ranking), OpenGov Asia (National Strategy), VnEconomy (Implementation Plan)
Manufacturing Adapts to Shifts
Manufacturing has to adapt to its new reality under the recently agreed US tariff arrangements. The textile and apparel industry, which reached $44 billion in exports in 2024, for example, has been heavily dependent on Chinese raw materials (~70%) and is going to get slammed by new transshipment rules if something doesn’t change. Leather and footwear exports are in a similar boat and made up $14 billion of exports in H1 2025. Tire makers are struggling despite falling rubber prices; Da Nang Rubber reported a profit decline of more than 80% and Casumina was down 26% as fixed costs rose and export markets cooled.
Read more: Fibre2Fashion (Footwear Growth), Fibre2Fashion (Tariff Impact), Asian News (Tire Industry), Vietnam-Briefing (Strategic Response)
High-Value Fruit Export Opportunities
The Ministry of Agriculture says passion fruit, banana, pineapple, and coconut all have the potential to be billion-dollar export commodities. Right now, fruit cultivation uses 1.3 million hectares nationally, with the “opportunity” fruits using 420,000 hectares and producing 6.3 million tons yearly.
Read more: The Investor (Export Potential), VnExpress (Market Strategy), Vietnam News (Durian Exports)
Banks Report Strong First-Half Performance
Domestic banks reported a good H1 2025 thanks to credit growth of nearly 10%. KienlongBank had a 67% increase in pre-tax profit with total assets of $3.9 billion (up 5.9%) and customer deposits growing to $2.93 billion (up 15.2%). TPBank posted pre-tax profits of more than $164 million (up 12%) with 11.7% credit growth coming mostly from retail banking. Nam A Bank tallied more than $100 million in pre-tax profit (up 14%) and total assets of $12.6 billion (up 30%), keeping its ROE of 20% and ROA of 1.5%. The State Bank of Vietnam expects credit growth to continue above the 16% target, with new legislation expected to support better risk management.
Read more: VIR (Performance Overview), Vietnam News (Insurance Expansion), The Investor (Account Cleanup)
That’s it for this week!
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