Myanmar 20250729
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
ASEAN Failing the Myanmar Test
Rohingya and Ethnic Tension
Resource Extraction & Environmental Impact
Military Efforts Fall Flat
Humanitarian Concerns Loom Large
Scams & Drug Trafficking
Supershear Unleashed Unprecedented Energy
Energy Sector Investments Wanted
China-ASEAN Expo
ASEAN Failing the Myanmar Test
Myanmar remains in the throes of political turmoil, and the country’s dysfunction is an ongoing test that ASEAN appears to be… not passing. A group of twenty-four local organizations has asked South Korea to reject the junta's planned upcoming elections, saying they’re nothing more than a political fig leaf. The elections are also being rejected by resistance forces, who warn against the vote and say it’s nothing more than an attempt to legitimize military rule. ASEAN's inability to broker meaningful dialogue continues to be worthy of scrutiny.
Read more: The Malaysian Reserve (ASEAN challenge), Mizzima (S. Korea pressure), Mizzima (Election rejections), Irrawaddy (Election warning)
Rohingya and Ethnic Tension
Reports indicate the junta is making ethnic tensions worse by giving more privileges to Rohingyas over the local Rakhine populations in Sittwe. The tension comes as the first group of Rohingyas have gone back to Bangladesh from Myanmar after a brief attempt at resettlement. The nation’s ethnic mix and economic disparities are issues that aren’t going to be resolved by a ceasefire.
Read more: Mizzima (Rohingya tensions), New Age BD (Rohingya returns)
Resource Extraction & Environmental Impact
China's environmental policies have moved its most polluting rare earth mines to Myanmar. The move south is a result of both China's grip on global rare earth supplies and the difficulty of separating Myanmar's environmental concerns from its economic ones. The reopening of tin mines in northern Shan State by the United Wa State Army is also the result of the influence that armed groups have over resource-rich areas, and the changes are going to affect global market prices for both rare-earths and tin.
Read more: Le Monde (Polluting mines), Irrawaddy (Tin mines)
Military Efforts Fall Flat
The junta is trying to consolidate control, recently regaining control of several towns, including Nawnghkio. Resistance forces continue to put up stiff resistance, coordinating attacks that are a constant burr under the junta’s saddle. Forced conscription by the army remains a worrying issue - minors are now reportedly being netted by the regime's recruitment drive. Military operations north of Mandalay are in flux as the junta’s old tactics are becoming less effective as a result of resistance countermeasures. Civilian safety remains tenuous.
Read more: Persecution.org (Recapture efforts), Myanmar Now (Defections), Asia News (Conscription's human cost), Asia News (Prisoner deaths), Irrawaddy (Military tensions)
Humanitarian Concerns Loom Large
Reports from UNOCHA say that challenges in aid delivery are ongoing because of both the difficulty of delivering goods into conflict areas and hurdles put up by the government. As international donors pull back, Myanmar's border refugee operations are getting close to collapse, threatening protection for more than 100,000 of the displaced.
Read more: UNOCHA (Humanitarian access), Mizzima (Refugee support crisis)
Scams & Drug Trafficking
As crackdowns continue, transnational scams are changing with the times to keep functioning. Lately, there’s been more news about the use of Starlink to keep operations running as internet access has been cut both domestically and by Thai authorities. Myanmar’s notorious border areas are still ripe for drug trafficking despite several high-profile busts that were worth millions in seized narcotics.
Read more: Asia News (Starlink), Morung Express (Drug seizures), EastMojo (Meth bust)
Supershear Unleashed Unprecedented Energy
The March 28 earthquake produced the longest recorded continental supershear strike-slip rupture (about 465 km), mainly along the southern Sagaing Fault. The supershear moved along the fault at more than five kilometers a second. The damage was made worse by strong, high-frequency shaking near the fault. Geologists say that five measures of geological risk show that the rupture zone should have been identifiable before the shaker, and that there’s a need for better seismic forecasting and tighter building codes.
Read more: The Debrief (Supershear event), Nature (Earthquake impact)
Energy Sector Investments Wanted
Myanmar is still on the hunt for energy sector partnerships to try and shore up the nation’s shortages and reduce high fuel prices. The junta's outreach to foreign investors is an uphill battle to plug a gaping hole in national infrastructure, as they are still hamstrung by international sanctions and domestic dissent.
Read more: Irrawaddy
China-ASEAN Expo
Myanmar is expected to host about 80 booths as the Country of Honor at the 22nd China - ASEAN Expo in Nanning, China, from September 17–21. The delegation wants to increase market access for agro-based SME products and promote its gemstones. The event will also support the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and ASEAN - China Free Trade Agreement 3.0. Myanmar has had a presence at the expo since 2005.
Read more: The Star
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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