Myanmar 20250812
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
Election Makeover Without Change
Security Laws Reset the Rules
Lobbying Washington to Dodge Sanctions
Ethnic Powerbrokers Set Their Own Ballots
Border Town Skirmishes Test Supply Lines
Cyber Breach Triggers Palace Shake‑up
War by Wallet: Printing, Sanctions, and Smuggling
A Generation in the Crosshairs
Sanctioned Tech Still Flying
Dams Threaten Asia’s Last Free‑Flowing Giant
Rebels Threaten Thai Gas Lifeline
Funeral Politics and a Harder Line on ASEAN
Election Makeover Without Change
The generals have replaced emergency rule with a new Union government, set December–January poll dates, and are calling it progress. The core setup remains unchanged, really: command and security chains of command still run through the military. Beijing wants quieter leadership and a civilian façade that protects its interests while keeping border trade moving.
Read more: Foreign Policy (China angle), Observer Research Foundation (Rebrand), Asia Times (Opposition), Mizzima (ASEAN call), The Irrawaddy (Union stance)
Security Laws Reset the Rules
Authorities restored warrantless arrests and home raids, tore up privacy protections, and widened surveillance powers in moves to consolidate control ahead of the planned voting. Troops are checking phones on city streets, hunting for VPNs, and using hotel check-ins and the PSMS database to identify and “neutralize” past protesters. A new elections law criminalizes “obstruction,” with multi‑year prison terms and the death penalty if a disruption leads to a fatality. The cyber law also reaches citizens abroad and hits VPN users and providers with fines and jail. The stack gives police the ability to hold people for long periods without court approval, invasive data pulls, and broad leeway to preempt dissent.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Arrests), The Irrawaddy (Phone checks), Herald Malaysia (Election law)
Lobbying Washington to Dodge Sanctions
The junta dropped $3 million annually on DCI Group to sell a story in Washington about trade, natural resources, and humanitarian relief. Filings show payments and talking points were timed with the government rebrand and rollout of the election plans. The junta also hired PR help earlier this year to court recognition and try to reduce sanctions. That pitch was in aid of protecting rare earth supply chains, investment access, and a softer reception for the coming vote. Nothing says “democracy” like hired guns on K Street.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (PR deal), The Print(FARA filing), France 24 (Sanctions easing), The Irrawaddy (Lobbying push)
Ethnic Powerbrokers Set Their Own Ballots
Ethnic armed groups are trying to shape election ground rules on their turf. The Arakan Army says there will be no vote under junta control in the areas it holds across Rakhine, including near Kyaukphyu, a corridor that’s necessary to Chinese projects. In Wa State, the junta sent envoys to court the UWSA with promises of services. In Mongla, the NDAA asked the military to lift martial law, saying that the township was peaceful and the tight rules were no longer necessary.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (AA stance), The Irrawaddy (Wa outreach), The Irrawaddy (Martial law)
Border Town Skirmishes Test Supply Lines
A 17‑boat military flotilla pushed up the Irrawaddy to Bhamo, a logistics hub on Highway 31 into China. Resistance units hit the convoy, leaving only 11 boats to dock and unload troops, ammo, and supplies. The Kachin Independence Army says its fighters are continuing to shell and drone junta positions that threaten surrounding townships. The KIA claims 14 towns were taken in its current offensive. Artillery strikes killed a 17‑year‑old in Bhamo Township. Control of the road to the border determines who gets which trade routes, what customs receipts, and the ability to stock forward bases.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Bhamo fight), Observer Research Foundation (Territory losses)
Cyber Breach Triggers Palace Shake‑up
Admiral Moe Aung lost his job as national security adviser after a huge data leak exposed personal records for more than 200,000 regime staff. The breach caused a panic as fear spread that players would be exposed for their dealmaking with China and Russia. The junta placed former navy chief Tin Aung San in the role and rushed through a Military Secrets Protection Law with harsh penalties.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Data leak), The Irrawaddy (Cyber law)
War by Wallet: Printing, Sanctions, and Smuggling
The central bank is bankrolling the war, printing money, and pushing inflation up to nearly 30%. The kyat has lost close to 80% of its value since the coup. The resistance is funding itself with bonds, lotteries, and donations. Sanctions have choked off some sources of cash, including more than $1 billion in frozen central bank assets, but new U.S. delistings muddy the picture as Congress is looking at fresh bills that would target state banks. A recent smuggling probe snagged 144 trucks crossing from Thailand and ensnared 16 officials, including a brigadier general.
Read more: Lowy Institute (Inflation), France 24(Delistings), The Irrawaddy (Smuggling)
A Generation in the Crosshairs
Young people were the primary drivers of early protests, then moved on to join frontline units, work in clinics, and support civil networks. A 2024 draft law is now forcing tens of thousands of them into service. The nation’s youth see few real political paths for themselves - in 2020, they won a sliver of seats relative to their share of the population. Many are now learning advocacy through online courses and local groups. The tug‑of‑war is over who carries the next phase of organizing forward under considerable government surveillance.
Read more: International IDEA (Youth role), Mizzima (Arrests)
Sanctioned Tech Still Flying
Downed drones have been found to be sporting European anti‑jamming navigation equipment that slipped past export controls. The components reportedly moved through a commercial dealer near the border and were diverted to the military with false declarations. Investigators have been working to follow a pattern of end‑use deception that’s been feeding battlefield appetite. The flow of parts lowers the cost of air‑to‑ground attacks and improves GPS targeting for strikes. UN experts say that any easing of pressure on companies linked to the junta will send the wrong signal as Russia and China continue substantial arms transfers, including armor and even jets.
Read more: The Defense Post (Parts trail), France 24 (Policy shift)
Dams Threaten Asia’s Last Free‑Flowing Giant
The Salween River still runs from the Tibetan Plateau to the Andaman Sea without any mainstream dams, but that status is at risk. At least 20 projects are on the table - 13 in China, seven in Myanmar - after years of delay. Indigenous leaders are fearful of food security and drinking water safety.
Read more: Mongabay
Rebels Threaten Thai Gas Lifeline
A Karen force that split from the KNU in 2022 says it controls about 40 km of pipeline right of way near the Thai border and could shut it off or blow it up to cut junta revenue. Skirmishes with both state troops and rival Karen units are raising the chance of a supply disruption. Thailand is obviously concerned about security and the impact any cuts will have on industry if the flow dips: nothing focuses the mind quite like the prospect of factories going dark.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Pipeline risk), The Irrawaddy (Border trade)
Funeral Politics and a Harder Line on ASEAN
The regime rolled out a rare state funeral for former acting president Myint Swe, heaping praise on the man whose letter greased the wheels for the 2021 coup. The 74-year-old had been on leave for a year due to neurological issues before his death, but his send-off carried a clear message: no compromise on ASEAN's five-point plan, and warmer embraces for Beijing and Moscow.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Funeral politics), Washington Post (Obituary)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.