Myanmar 20250819
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Plans Dec 28 Vote
China Backs ‘Myanmar‑Led’ Roadmap
India’s Myanmar Bet Looks Thin
UN Envoy Presses for Arms Cutoff
Rohingya Mass at Naf River
Airstrike Kills 21 in Mogok
Sanctions Rollback Takes Heat Off the Junta
New Radar, Drones Boost Firepower
Bridge Closure Chokes Thai Trade
Ruili Jade Trade Stalls
Rare Earth Waste Hits Thai Rivers
Unified QR Codes Go Live
Scam Rings Push ‘Wine’ Cons
Junta Plans Dec 28 Vote
Even though a 2024 census apparently missed about 19 million people, the military continues to insist that it’s going to start the voting on December 28 this year. Logistics look shaky as large areas of the country are still under opposition control and many parties either plan, or are being forced by bans, to sit it out. Observers expect a tightly managed process that will only serve to try to formalize the status quo.
Read more: Taipei Times (Date set), KPBS (Phasing), Outlook India (Context), The Manila Times (Boycott), Mizzima (Seat target), Myanmar Now (Opposition areas), Firstpost (Resistance)
China Backs ‘Myanmar‑Led’ Roadmap
Foreign ministers from China, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand met in Yunnan and came out in support of a “Myanmar-led, Myanmar-owned” path for reconciliation. China’s Wang Yi gave support for the year-end elections, Laos backed the roadmap, and Thailand called for respect for internal affairs. The four discussed cooperation against cross-border crime, including drugs and online scams, and reviewed steps to improve border security. The Myanmar delegation was keen to let everyone know that things were getting more stable as they got ready for the vote.
Read more: China MFA (Positions), Thai MFA (Crime focus), Myanmar Now (Election support)
India’s Myanmar Bet Looks Thin
Beijing is courting ethnic armed groups and working its ties with the military to keep its leverage. New arrangements could leave India on the sidelines along a border already beset by insurgent influences and changes in control. New Delhi has long preferred to engage the generals and avoid dealing with local insurgents, and as a result, reduced its options for influence. With China shaping talks and building networks between factions, analysts argue India needs a rework that includes wider outreach and faster, harder choices. Without a reset, India’s connectivity plans and border stability will remain unreliable.
Read more: ThePrint
UN Envoy Presses for Arms Cutoff
Myanmar’s UN representative Kyaw Moe Tun is asking the UN Security Council for more action, as the death toll continues to rise with more than 7,000 killed and 20 million needing aid since the coup. He reported 3.5 million displaced and growth in both trafficking and maritime departures. By May 2025, departures by boat rose 174%, with 457 people reported dead or missing. He also asked for a ban on sales of weapons and dual-use items to the military, as well as better protection of civilians.
Read more: Mizzima
Rohingya Mass at Naf River
Several hundred Rohingya have gathered near the Naf River trying to get into Bangladesh as fighting between the Arakan Army and the junta has expanded in Rakhine. Border Guard Bangladesh says it has tightened things up at the border, keeping most people from making the crossing, but some have been able to slip past. Local officials confirm scattered arrivals and say the situation could worsen if violence rises again.
Read more: The Daily Star
Airstrike Kills 21 in Mogok
An airstrike hit Mogok, a gem-mining center northeast of Mandalay, killing at least 21 people, including a pregnant woman, according to local media and armed opposition. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army said homes and a Buddhist monastery were damaged. It also reported 17 deaths and 20 injuries from strikes in its territory during the first half of August. The military had no comment.
Read more: AP News
Sanctions Rollback Takes Heat Off the Junta
Rights advocates have condemned a July OFAC decision to remove Myanmar-linked companies and people from the sanctions list, saying it’s a moral blow to the pro-democracy movement. UN expert Tom Andrews also asked for a reversal, arguing the move weakens accountability. Separately, aid groups say that Trump-era plans to cut more than $1 billion in aid through 2029 are a boon for the junta as funding gaps worsen food and health problems for the displaced, weakening the resistance.
Read more: Borderlens (Delisting), The Independent (Aid cuts)
New Radar, Drones Boost Firepower
A leaked letter shows India’s Astra Microwave Products planned to brief the military on drone-detection radar on August 11, working with Light Head Group, which partners with air-defense units. Pro-military channels proudly discuss growing UAV capacity, including infrared upgrades added in February. Analysts say that Russia is the largest supplier of arms. The package suggests a steady buildout of air and counter-drone capabilities that will shape battlefield dynamics, including the ability to strike and defend against small aerial platforms used by both sides in small towns and rugged border zones.
Read more: Mizzima (Radar deal), Firstpost (Arms source)
Bridge Closure Chokes Thai Trade
Authorities shut the Second Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge to large vehicles and cargo on August 18 to try to reroute trade revenue to the central government, stalling traffic worth an estimated 130 billion baht. Thai customs got no early notice, and exporters are warning of delays and spoilage. In Karen State, fuel rationing in Myawaddy was paused after Thai agencies stopped fuel exports to keep supplies from reaching cyberscam hubs. The First Friendship Bridge remained open for pedestrians and small traders, but the main artery remains blocked, and new Thai export rules are adding lead-time requirements that traders say are hard to meet.
Read more: The Straits Times (Bridge closure), Myanmar Now (Fuel halt)
Ruili Jade Trade Stalls
Ruili’s once-busy border with Myanmar has fallen quiet. Border crossings fell to a quarter of 2019 levels, a 170-kilometer wall went up, and policing has been on the rise. The jade trade, already weighed down by inspections and costs, has lost momentum, squeezing dealers and small operators. Traders describe weeks-long waits for passes, leaving hundreds stranded in Muse. Myanmar neighborhoods inside Ruili have thinned by half since 2019, and residents report constant checks.
Read more: China Global South
Rare Earth Waste Hits Thai Rivers
Rare earth mining in southern Shan State is sending pollutants above the WHO safe levels across the border into northern Thailand. Thai villagers are rallying for action, but authorities say they are hamstrung by a messy mix of environmental risk, border politics, and enforcement difficulty.
Read more: Asia Financial
Unified QR Codes Go Live
The central bank has rolled out a single QR standard that lets consumers pay across different mobile apps with one code. Banks and wallets are adopting it, cutting clutter at checkout and helping small merchants accept more wallets without multiple stickers or devices. The standard also supports people without formal bank accounts, many of whom can now, for the first time, use mobile money apps. For a cash-heavy market, this setup reduces friction for the smallest of businesses and shortens settlement times. It also gives regulators better visibility into retail payments.
Read more: Nikkei Asia
Scam Rings Push ‘Wine’ Cons
Fraud networks operating in northern Myanmar are reportedly moving into wine investment scams. Court records show at least 99 victims lost nearly $5 million as scammers posed as military officers, built virtual relationships, and funneled money into fake exchanges with names like “Shanghai Free Trade Zone Wine Trading Centre.” Small early profits encouraged victims to make larger transfers that then vanished. Several defendants have already received prison terms, but the alleged ringleader remains at large.
Read more: Vino Joy News
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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