Vietnam 20250821
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Headlines:
Bank Cuts Rates, Defends Dong
Foreign Selling Despite Upgrade Push
FDI Builds, but Delivery Matters
Localization Becomes Make‑or‑Break
Tariffs Force an Export Rethink
Power Costs Rise as Grid Expands
Oil, Petchem Activity Picks Up
Cables, Datacenters, Fintech On the Rise
Chips Get New Platforms
Fintech Scales, Crypto Goes Legal
Logistics Adds FTZs and Links
Airlines Add Seats, Cut Burn
Ag: Durian Roars, Rice Shifts to Value
Property Sees a Bounce
Bank Cuts Rates, Defends Dong
The Central Bank is cutting lending costs and loosening credit to chase an 8.5% growth target, but pressure on the ol’ dong could be a headwind. A new circular called for a halving of reserve requirements for banks that take over weak lenders - a move that will free up capital but will also surely raise the need for oversight. Plans are set to phase out the long-running credit room regime from 2026 as market tools are in a position to take over. Fitch says the target looks stretched and is warning on the risks of too much leverage. Provinces were given explicit H2 growth quotas, adding urgency to public investment and project delivery. Deposit rates have edged up, liquidity is tight, and the policy mix is leaning on targeted credit and steady FX management.
Read more: Vietnam News (Rate cuts), Vietnam Investment Review (Headwinds), Vietnam News (Reserves relief), Vietnam Investment Review (Credit rooms), Finimize (Fitch view), Vietnam News (Quotas)
Foreign Selling Despite Upgrade Push
KRX is live. Regulators are keeping an eye on midday trading and same‑day selling of in‑transit shares, and non‑prefunding has reduced frictions for foreign institutions. An FTSE upgrade to “emerging” status for the market is in sight by September, if rules hold. After a sharp index rally and tariff noise, foreign investors have been keen to take profits even as more passive inflows are expected on index inclusion. Bank stocks remain hot, with foreign room tightening at several names under new ownership limits for restructuring plays. The mix points to short‑term churn and a path to deeper participation once rules are set.
Read more: Vietnam News (FTSE path), The Investor (T+0 study), VnExpress (Profit‑taking), Vietnam Investment Review (Foreign room), Hubbis (KRX impact)
FDI Builds, but Delivery Matters
Foreign capital is leaning in on manufacturing, data, healthcare, and finance. Ho Chi Minh City has logged a 45% rise in FDI to $6.2 billion YTD, with chipmaking and data investments making a comeback. Singaporean funds are scaling low‑carbon energy, healthcare, and industrial platforms. A policy “blueprint” is shifting from registrations to execution, helped by administrative mergers, faster approvals, and national eID. Analysts place the country as a top FDI magnet in ASEAN on demographics, trade pacts, and stability. Investors are still watching tariff risks and making sure that infrastructure delivery meets infrastructure delivery talk, but the pipeline indicates continued capital formation over the next cycle.
Read more: Intellinews (FDI leader), Intellinews (HCMC rebound), Vietnam Investment Review (Blueprint), Vietnam Investment Review (SG funds), Vietnam Briefing (Merger effects)
Localization Becomes Make‑or‑Break
Government and industry both want more local content in textiles, machinery, autos, and electronics. The MoIT puts localization at 45–50% in textiles and far lower elsewhere, saying there is especially a dependency on low‑value parts. Several large companies are asking producers to source more locally to stay ahead of the new origin rules, creating openings for SMEs to fill the gap.
Read more: Vietnam News (Localization), The Investor (Capacity gap), Vietnam Investment Review (Local sourcing), Vietnam News (Textiles), Vietnam News (Policy gaps)
Tariffs Force an Export Rethink
Exporters are reworking supply chains and sales plans. Firms are increasingly sourcing more locally (as per previous article), trying to move more sales to the EU, Japan, and Asia, and investing in ESG compliance to keep a competitive advantage. Wood producers say they’re planning partial US‑based manufacturing to keep access and reduce exposure to duties. Hanoi is pushing continued talks with Washington, suggesting a rethink of customs and data sharing, as well as nudging manufacturers toward higher value‑added activities and market diversification by way of the Vietnam’s existing FTAs.
Read more: Vietnam Investment Review (Export shifts), Vietnam Investment Review (Strategy), Vietnam Briefing(Talks), The Investor (Wood moves), VietnamPlus (VIS 2025)
Power Costs Rise as Grid Expands
Authorities are preparing rule changes that would let power authority EVN pass through audited costs, including forex differences, to shore up losses and protect supply. A separate proposal to support viability adds previously uncounted costs to retail price calculations. On the capacity front, EVN kicked off the Tri An hydropower expansion to add 200MW by 2027. Regional interconnections are still underway as ADB and the World Bank promise more than $12 billion for the ASEAN Power Grid. Private developers are adding to the power pipeline with floating solar projects under DPPA models that can serve large users who want cleaner power at predictable prices.
Read more: Reuters (Tariff rules), Asia News Network (Cost pass‑through), Vietnam Investment Review (APG funding), Vietnam Investment Review (Hydro), Vietnam Investment Review (Floating solar)
Oil, Petchem Activity Picks Up
Oil and gas is looking for new investment, more field start‑ups, and restarts of petrochemical projects. EnQuest bought Harbour Energy’s stakes in Chim Sao and Dua for $85.1 million, expecting to deliver late‑life asset optimization and send more work to local contractors. Vietsovpetro started commercial output at the Kình Ngư Trắng area. The $5 billion Long Sơn petrochemical complex was rebooted after a 10‑month hiatus and is adding a $500 million upgrade to reduce costs and cut emissions. ExxonMobil is assessing a $10 billion near-zero‑emission refinery site for the Asia‑Pacific region, with decisions on where to locate expected before the end of the decade.
Read more: The Investor (M&A), Vietnam News (New output), Vietnam News (Petchem restart), Vietnam Investment Review (Refinery study), Oilprice (US crude)
Cables, Datacenters, Fintech On the Rise
Network operators say they’re working to cut latency and build out capacity. VNPT announced a 3,900‑km terrestrial fiber to Singapore, providing an overland backup to fragile subsea routes. VNPT and Viettel added international capacity by way of the Asia Direct Cable and promised more capacity by 2030. South Korean partners signed MoUs to develop hyperscale facilities, including LG CNS with VNPT and Samsung C&T with CMC for a $1.3 billion datacenter hub in Ho Chi Minh City. The government opened National Data Centre No. 1 in Hoa Lac, connecting state systems and supporting AI use. Lower build costs are reportedly a tailwind in attracting more private DC investment.
Read more: Light Reading (Land link), Vietnam News (Capacity), DataCenterDynamics (MoUs), Forbes (DC hub), OpenGov Asia (National DC), OpenGov Asia (IPv6 plan), Vietnam Investment Review (Project wave), VietnamPlus (KOL summit), CoinGeek (E‑prescriptions), GlobeNewswire (Fintech CAGR
Chips Get New Platforms
Da Nang is building a chip packaging lab and training at least 5,000 engineers by 2030. VNPT and Qualcomm are launching an original design center to co‑develop AI, 5G/6G, IoT, and networking gear under a Qualcomm program. The Prime Minister pressed Qualcomm to double down on investments through the semiconductor chain, while the NIC and UK partners came together in a recent forum to plan collaboration on manufacturing and training. Viettel broke ground on a large R&D center at Hoa Lac, expanding its base for dual‑use research and feeding into domestic chip and AI projects.
Read more: Vietnam News (Da Nang), The Investor (Design center), DigiTimes (PM pitch), Vietnam News (UK forum), OpenGov Asia (Viettel R&D)
Fintech Scales, Crypto Goes Legal
MB Bank and Upbit’s operator Dunamu have agreed to launch the first licensed domestic crypto exchange under the new digital asset law. Hana Bank and BIDV will facilitate more cross‑border QR payments. A new VAT law favors non‑cash payments, and cashless usage keeps rising, with 12 billion transactions reported in H1. Expect more of the same through the end of the year.
Read more: CryptoNews (Licensed exchange), Cointelegraph (MB‑Dunamu), LiveBitcoinNews (Ponzi bust), KED Global (QR partnership), CoinGeek (Cashless growth)
Logistics Adds FTZs and Links
Ho Chi Minh City has proposed four free trade zones tied to seaports and rail. Inland waterways are getting priority to cut logistics costs and meet green standards in 21 coastal provinces, something that should be a boon for coastal shipping growth. A new warehouse from Mitsubishi Estate opened in Tay Ninh to serve e‑commerce with LEED standards and automation. Hanoi broke ground on the Ngoc Hoi Bridge, and planners pushed forward on a 42‑km rail link between Thu Thiem and Long Thanh Airport to reduce congestion and connect airports, with orders to finalize plans by Q3.
Read more: The Investor (FTZs), Vietnam News (Waterways), Vietnam Investment Review (Warehouse), Vietnam News(Bridge), Travel And Tour World (Airport rail)
Airlines Add Seats, Cut Burn
Passenger numbers rose 9.1% in H1, supporting increased profits at both Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet. Competition is heating up, however, as Sun Group’s Sun PhuQuoc Airways took delivery of its first A321 and says it will be in the air by year‑end, and Vietravel Airlines is getting a restart with new backing. Regulators put forward strict operations guidance for the holiday surge on safety, capacity, and pricing coordination. On fuel, Vietjet, for the first time, delivered a domestic service using sustainable aviation fuel supplied by Petrolimex Aviation, with ISCC‑certified volumes and plans to build a local supply chain.
Read more: The Investor (H1 results), VnExpress (New entrants), [Travel And Tour World](https://www.traveland tourworld.com/news/article/vietnam-prepares-for-a-massive-travel-surge-with-strict-new-regulations-on-airlines-and-airport-operations/) (Holiday rules), Vietnam Investment Review (SAF)
Ag: Durian Roars, Rice Shifts to Value
Fresh durian shipments jumped more than tenfold from May to July and export prices are up about 20% on tight supply. Fruit and vegetable shipments to China are still down 15% YTD, although the US and other markets are up. Provinces are running trade drives and processing investments for value‑added products, with Gia Lai and Hung Yen pushing coffee, durian, longan, and related lines. More broadly, the government is telling exporters to move upmarket, particularly in rice, as climate risk and tighter standards squeeze margins. There’s a plan afoot to build out a million hectares of high‑quality, low‑emission rice fields by 2030, along with traceability for markets like the EU and Japan.
Read more: VnExpress (China trend), VnExpress (Price spike), VnExpress (Rebound), Asia News Network (Compliance map), IntelliNews (Longan push), Vietnam News (Gia Lai), Vietnam News (Quality push), IntelliNews (Policy), The Investor (Export rank), Asia News Network (Market shock)
Property Sees a Bounce
Developers reported a solid Q2 profit rebound led by housing and industrial parks. Analysts say there are more than 40,000 new apartments in Hanoi and HCMC expected to come on the market this year as property (legal) reforms feed supply. Lawmakers are reworking land procedures and valuation rules to clear bottlenecks, and the finance ministry is continuing to study a 20% personal income tax (really a capital gains tax) on real estate profits.
Read more: Vietnam News (Q2 rebound), OpenPR (2033 outlook), VnExpress (Rent squeeze), Vietnam News (Land law), Vietnam News (Tax plan)
That’s it for this week!
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