Vietnam 20250828
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Headlines:
Crypto Exchanges Finally Getting Real
Market Treads Water as Upgrade Dreams Persist
Banks Bulk Up Despite Growing Pains
Wind Power Gets Second Wind
Big Oil and LNG Double Down
Industrial Land Gets Smart Makeover
Heavy Industry Powers Up
Tech Talent Gets Policy Support
FDI Hits 15-Year High
Trade Wars Force Export Rethink
Rice Goes Green, Fruit Goes Big
Island Building, Bot Slander, Shipbuilding Muscle
Gold Monopoly Crumbles as Prices Soar
$4.2 Billion Smart City Breaks Ground
Samsung's Comeback Speeds Up
Crypto Exchanges Finally Getting Real
Talk is finally turning into action and execution for digital assets. Regulators are drafting rules to license about five exchanges, with eKYC, bank account links, and connections to international platforms. The new Law on Digital Technology Industry, effective from 2026, defines cryptoassets as digital property and helps provide legal clarity that was previously absent. A VND10 trillion minimum capital threshold sets the bar high - 21 banks already qualify. MB just signed with Dunamu, and Techcom Securities and SSI are getting ready to join. With 17 million wallet holders and $105 billion in transactions, officials say regulated venues will reduce scams and keep talent onshore.
Read more: OpenGov Asia (transparency), Vietnam Investment Review (blockchain hub), CoinCentral (scam response), Vietnam News (banks entry)
Market Treads Water as Upgrade Dreams Persist
The VN-Index is holding around 1,600-1,650 near term, possibly testing 1,570-1,580 before the next move. Foreign selling picked up after July's rally, but funds still talk up emerging market status. The new KRX system is live, with English disclosure and foreign limit rules getting the finishing touches put on them. The proposed switch from a 0.1% transfer tax to a 20% capital gains tax has short-term traders squawking. Retail participation keeps climbing past 10.4 million accounts - it seems that everyone wants in.
Read more: Vietnam News (market outlook), VIR (tax debate), VIR (retail surge)
Banks Bulk Up Despite Growing Pains
S&P just upgraded Techcombank to BB, citing strong capital and profits, and analysts expect a system-wide doubling of assets by the end of this year. Banks are raising capital to meet Basel III requirements as credit growth picks up pace ahead of year-end demand. A new rule has allowed for an increase in the foreign ownership cap to 49% with carve-outs for restructuring situations. The central bank wants tight AML rules for the upcoming international financial center. Asset quality concerns remain, but funding and ratings are improving.
Read more: Vietnam News (rating upgrade), VIR (sector outlook), Legal Business Online (foreign ownership)
Wind Power Gets Second Wind
REE just bagged two nearshore wind projects in Vinh Long totaling 80 MW, helped along by new price caps that actually make sense. Vietcap expects to see an 11.8% IRR and an earnings boost by 2027. The ministry's direct power purchase rules will now allow big users to purchase directly from wind and solar farms, though pricing details still need work before they’re finalized. The World Bank says 6-17 GW of offshore wind is doable by 2030-2035 if the rules firm up. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners has joined forces with Petrovietnam for offshore development… Looks like the global players are circling.
Read more: The Investor (project wins), Maritime Fairtrade (offshore roadmap), Renewables Now (partnership)
Big Oil and LNG Double Down
ExxonMobil is looking at a $10 billion next-gen refinery in Van Phong, with feasibility by 2027 and operations from 2035. SK Innovation is pushing a $2.15 billion, 1,500 MW LNG plant in Nghe An to start before 2030, a project that will help reduce North-South transmission stress. The ministry wants to add VND44.8 trillion of EVN's accumulated losses to retail tariffs - consumers are… less than thrilled? National power needs could hit 183 GW by 2030 - that would take about $136 billion in investment.
Read more: The Investor (refinery), VIR (LNG), Vietnam News (tariff debate)
Industrial Land Gets Smart Makeover
VIR reports that HCMC's merger with nearby provinces was partly intended to unlock the possibility of cleaner, bigger sites for Industrial land and to cut red tape. Da Nang is still keen on rolling out it 1,881-hectare free trade zone with green, smart infrastructure. Mitsubishi Estate has opened its first logistics project in Tay Ninh, and DEEP C is changing over smart LEDs in an effort to cut energy use. New parks are sprouting up, including a 200-hectare facility in Ninh Binh, but provinces still have to deal with land clearance headaches and investor capability shortcomings.
Read more: VIR (merger impact), Vietnam News (Da Nang FTZ), VIR (logistics)
Heavy Industry Powers Up
Hoa Phat's new rail and structural steel project targets 700,000 tons yearly by 2027, feeding upgrades of the national rail system. The railways' merged operating company did pretty well in its H1 revenue, though the infrastructure needs more work. Vietjet is building a $100 million maintenance facility at Long Thanh to service 10 aircraft at the same time. Aviation maintenance demand is expected to jump from $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion over the next ten years.
Read more: The Investor (steel project), Aviation Week (MRO expansion)
Tech Talent Gets Policy Support
HCMC has launched ARTSeMi to train semiconductor talent through 2030. National networks in quantum, cybersecurity, and aerospace are connecting global experts to local projects. Dassault Systèmes and Viettel signed deals on AI, digital twins, and smart manufacturing. Mobile operators turned on 5G services, saying they are shooting for 90% coverage and expecting new enterprise use cases to become viable once the network is available.
Read more: OpenGov Asia (talent policy), Vietnam News (semiconductor push), VIR (5G rollout)
FDI Hits 15-Year High
Foreign investment is having a moment in the sun again. H1 inflows hit $21.5 billion, the highest since 2009. Manufacturing, green tech, and research are getting the most new interest. HCMC was able to rake in $6.2 billion in seven months and is going to work on besting 10% growth through the rest of the year with "green channels" for industrial projects. The ADB is bullish on stronger exports and a $10.2 billion surplus, but, of course, keeps an asterisk on standby for tariff uncertainty. Investors want faster approvals, better training, and that so-far-elusive emerging market upgrade.
Read more: Vietnam News (investment surge), VnExpress (HCMC targets), VnExpress (quality focus)
Trade Wars Force Export Rethink
Another report this week on how the U.S. tariffs on furniture, textiles, and electronics are forcing companies up the value chain. EU buyers reportedly want greener production from supplier who will to use trade preferences. India has spared Hoa Phat's steel from anti-dumping duties, but has hit other mills with five-year tariffs. Wood exports rose 9% - the U.S. is still the top buyer, taking a little over half of output. The VIFA ASEAN fair on Tuesday was a success - it brought together more than 200 exhibitors hunting for furniture orders.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (tariff impact), Vietnam News (steel ruling), The Investor (wood exports)
Rice Goes Green, Fruit Goes Big
Vinarice secured funding to expand low-emission rice across 21,000 hectares, with carbon credits and exports already heading to Japan and Australia. The agriculture ministry targets at least 10% emission cuts by 2035 using alternate wetting, straw recycling, and crop rotations. AgriS is rolling out AI-driven farm management for traceability. Durian sales lifted fruit exports, rice shipments could exceed 8.2 million tons, and dairy producers warn of market overheating.
Read more: VIR (green rice), VietnamPlus (emission targets), FreshPlaza (fruit boom)
Island Building, Bot Slander, Shipbuilding Muscle
New satellite images show growth in reclamation at eight more disputed Spratly locations, with storage and building construction. Analysts say it’s more claim-reinforcement than power projection for the time being. A report from the Philippines identified 71bot accounts on X that spent months painting Vietnam as the main aggressor in the South China Sea while downplaying China's activities. As Vietnam works to improve combat readiness and develop home-grown naval capacity, the first domestically built amphibious ship has been launched, a delivery that is bringing shipyards closer to combat-ready production.
Read more: The Defense Post (reclamation), Philstar (bot campaign), Defence Blog (ship launch)
Gold Monopoly Crumbles as Prices Soar
The state monopoly on gold bullion production has come to an end, and authorized banks are now allowed to import and export under supervision (and licensing) of the central bank. Transactions above VND20 million are required to pass through bank accounts, adding traceability to a cash-heavy market. Prices hit a record this week, up 52% this year and well above global equivalents. Investors are watching how licensing and new product definitions change premiums.
Read more: Vietnam News (policy shift), VnExpress (price surge)
$4.2 Billion Smart City Breaks Ground
BRG Group and Sumitomo kicked off North Hanoi Smart City, a 270-hectare carbon-neutral project that features clean energy, “resilient” planning, and tech services. The project promises jobs, high-tech tenants, and a boost to Hanoi's profile, with environmental benchmarks baked into approvals.
Read more: VIR
Samsung's Comeback Speeds Up
The Prime Minister has called on Samsung to continue putting more money into high-tech and R&D investments after the company's four local plants saw a 25.8% profit rise in Q2. H1 saw mobile and display production ramping up, and a new OLED production investment is planned for Bac Ninh. Samsung is a big hitter in Vietnam - total investment stands at $23.2 billion, and they generated $62.5 billion in 2024 revenue and shipped $54.4 billion in exports.
Read more: VnExpress (expansion push), The Investor (results)
That’s it for this week!
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